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49ERS FAVORED FOR FIRST DIVISION TITLE SINCE 2002
Sun, 01 Aug 2010 06:27 PM EDT

Bettors have certainly come to love the 49ers under Mike Singletary, as they are 14-7 ATS in his short tenure. However, fans in San Francisco are even giddier about the team’s prospects for 2010, as the 49ers appear poised to take over the NFC West Division from the Cardinals, the two-time defending champions wo Singletary’s team beat twice a year ago. Let’s analyze whether this optimism is warranted or if San Francisco is doomed to another playoff-less season, which would mark its eighth straight.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
2009 Record:8-8 (+0.3 ML Units), 9-4 ATS
DIVISION:NFC West
COACH:Mike Singletary, 3rd year (13-12 SU, 14-7 ATS)
STADIUM:Candlestick Park
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:30 to 1, NFC Title:13 to 1
StatFox Power Rating:21 (#15 of 32)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating:+1.0 (#15 of 32)

SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 8-8 ~ 20-28 (42%)
ATS: 9-4 ~ 21-23 (48%)
Preseason ATS: 1-3 ~ 5-7 (42%)
Home ATS: 5-2 ~ 11-11 (50%)
Road ATS: 4-2 ~ 10-12 (45%)
Division ATS: 5-1 ~ 10-8 (56%)
Conference ATS: 7-3 ~ 14-19 (42%)
Favorite ATS: 5-1 ~ 7-4 (64%)
Underdog ATS: 4-2 ~ 14-18 (44%)
Over-Under: 5-11 ~ 19-28 (40%)

2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: +3.1 (#13 of 32)
Yardage Differential: -35.6 (#24 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: -0.03 (#19 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: +4.43 (#1 of 32)
Turnover Differential: +9 (#5 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 290.8 (#27 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 326.4 (#14 of 32) Football Spreads

2010 SCHEDULE: Strength – 17.94 (31st toughest of 32)
DATE – OPPONENT, TIME
9/12/10 – at Seattle, 4:15 PM
9/20/10 – NEW ORLEANS, 8:30 PM
9/26/10 – at Kansas City, 1:00 PM
10/3/10 – at Atlanta, 1:00 PM
10/10/10 – PHILADELPHIA, 8:20 PM
10/17/10 – OAKLAND, 4:05 PM
10/24/10 – at Carolina, 1:00 PM
10/31/10 – vs. Denver (London), 1:00 PM
11/14/10 – ST LOUIS, 4:15 PM
11/21/10 – TAMPA BAY, 4:05 PM
11/29/10 – at Arizona, 8:30 PM
12/5/10 – at Green Bay, 1:00 PM
12/12/10 – SEATTLE, 4:05 PM
12/16/10 – at San Diego, 8:20 PM
12/26/10 – at St Louis, 1:00 PM
1/2/11 – ARIZONA, 4:15 PM

Sample StatFox Power Trend for 2010

  • SAN FRANCISCO is on a 16-3 OVER the total (+12.7 Units) run on the road vs. poor rushing teams – averaging <=3.5 YPR The Average Score was SAN FRANCISCO 26.2, OPPONENT 26.4 Basketball Spreads

    2010 OUTLOOK
    Mike Singletary has restored some stability to a wayward franchise, as the 49ers 8-8 mark snapped a string of six consecutive losing seasons. The next goal is to unseat the Cardinals, who they beat twice a year ago, and win the NFC West…San Francisco finished 27th in total offense (290.8 YPG) and 18th in scoring (20.6 PPG) in OC Jimmy Raye’s first year. Shaun Hill and Alex Smith shared time at QB through the first six weeks, but it became Smith’s job over the final 10 games. He may finally be ready to fulfill the promise that made him the #1 overall pick in the 2005 draft. RB Frank Gore keeps the San Francisco running game a threat, with 1,120 yards and a career-best 10 touchdowns in 2009. Highly touted WR Michael Crabtree, new acquisition Ted Ginn Jr. and TE Vernon Davis, off a monster season, make up the best pass-catching unit this team has had in over a decade. The interior may take a little while to mesh with first round rookie starters LT Anthony Davis & RG Mike Iupati…The stop unit held seven opponents to 10 points or fewer and allowed just 17.6 PPG overall, good for fourth in the NFL. The unit’s 326.4 yards allowed per game ranked 15th. All three starters return to the three-man front, while San Francisco’s quartet of linebackers can play both fast and physical. The catalyst is Patrick Willis, who paced the NFL with 152 tackles. The secondary should be better with the return of CB Nate Clements, sidelined for nine games with a shoulder injury…If the Niners are going to qualify for the postseason for the first time since 2002, it will be up to Smith to lead the way. He is surrounded by weapons and the defense is easily the division’s best. San Francisco could take the NFC West. Baseball Spreads

    Sportsbook.com Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 8.5
    StatFox Steve’s Take: San Francisco has the lowest regular season win prop of any divisional favorite, and considering that 8-8 division winners are extremely rare, you’d have to assume that if the 49ers get it done in the West this year, they will be at least 9-7. Thus the question is…will they? With the 2nd easiest schedule in the NFL on tap, I have to say YES. OVER.

  • For a more complete look at the 2010 college and pro football seasons, pick up your copy of our annual football magazine, the StatFox Edge, a 160-page Ultimate Handicapping Resource!

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