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AARON RODGERS HAS 18 TD AND 5 INT IN 7 HOME GAMES THIS YEAR.
Thu, 06 Jan 2011 11:32 AM EST


CHICAGO BEARS (11-4)
at GREEN BAY PACKERS (9-6)

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:15 p.m. EDT
Line: Green Bay -10, Total: 41.5

Green Bay looks to clinch a playoff spot when it hosts a Chicago team with little to play for. The Bears have already secured the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoffs and will not likely be playing their starters for more than half the game. Even if the back-ups don’t see as much time as expected, the Packers have been tough to beat at home this year with a 6-1 record. They have outscored their last three opponents at Lambeau Field by an average score of 41 to 13. NFL scores.

QB Aaron Rodgers did not play two weeks ago in New England (concussion), but he came back stronger than ever in last week’s 45-17 rout over the New York Giants. Rodgers threw for 404 yards and four touchdowns against the Giants, giving him 18 TD and 5 INT at Lambeau Field this season. He’s also had success hosting Chicago with 411 passing yards, 3 TD and one interception in the past two home meetings, winning both. The Packers defense has also played well recently, allowing just 284 total YPG and forcing 15 turnovers in the past seven contests. NFL spreads.

The Bears won the last meeting, 20-17 in Week 3, and will look to finish 6-0 in the NFC North this season. They are riding high after a 38-34 win over the New York Jets last week. RB Matt Forte rushed for 113 yards on just 19 carries to become the first 100-yard rusher against the Jets in over a year. Forte has averaged 5.7 yards per carry in his past five games, which has kept the pressure off Jay Cutler. The Bears signal caller has thrown for 1,042 yards, 11 TD and 4 INT during this five-game stretch. Cutler was picked off four times in the Week 3 win over Green Bay. Chicago’s defense has struggled since shutting out Miami on Nov. 18, allowing 26.0 PPG and 120 rushing YPG in the five contests since the shutout win.

The Packers have owned this series since 1992, going 25-12 SU (22-14-1 ATS) against the Bears. These two FoxSheets trends also side with Green Bay to win and cover the big spread.

CHICAGO is 2-16 ATS (-15.6 Units) after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992. The average score was CHICAGO 19.2, OPPONENT 24.2 – (Rating = 4*).

Play Against – Road underdogs or pick (CHICAGO) – after 2 or more consecutive wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) after 8+ games. (30-10 since 1983.) (75%, +19 units. Rating = 2*). NFL lines.

This five-star FoxSheets trend expects the game will finish Over the Total:

Play Over – Any team against the total (CHICAGO) – after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games against opponent after covering the spread in 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games. (32-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (86.5%, +26.5 units. Rating = 5*).


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