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BILLS BURIED AT BOTTOM OF LOADED AFC EAST
Fri, 09 Jul 2010 06:38 PM EDT

Running back C.J. Spiller gives hope to a Bills' offense that ranked 30th in the NFL last season.

While things aren’t as bad in Buffalo as they seem to be at other NFL locales these days, there certainly isn’t a whole lot of optimism either. The Bills haven’t had a winning record since 2004 and are the clear-cut underdog in a loaded AFC East Division. New head coach Chan Gailey has been brought in to rebuild one of the league’s worst offenses. it could be long season. Our 32 NFL teams in 32 days season preview series continues with a look at the 2010 Buffalo Bills. Football Odds
BUFFALO BILLS
2009 Record:6-10 (-1.4 ML Units), 8-7 ATS
DIVISION:AFC East
COACH:Chan Gailey, 1st year (18-16 SU w/DAL in ‘98-99)
STADIUM:Ralph Wilson Stadium
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:100 to 1, AFC Title:50 to 1
StatFox Power Rating:15 (#24 of 32)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating:-3.5 (#23 of 32)

SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 6-10 ~ 20-28 (42%)
ATS: 8-7 ~ 25-22 (53%)
Preseason ATS: 1-3 ~ 6-6 (50%)
Home ATS: 3-3 ~ 11-10 (52%)
Road ATS: 5-4 ~ 14-12 (54%)
Division ATS: 3-2 ~ 8-9 (47%)
Conference ATS: 6-5 ~ 18-17 (51%)
Favorite ATS: 3-1 ~ 8-6 (57%)
Underdog ATS: 5-6 ~ 17-16 (52%)
Over-Under: 6-10 ~ 21-27 (44%)

2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: -4.2 (#23 of 32)
Yardage Differential: -66.5 (#26 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: -0.21 (#22 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: -0.36 (#17 of 32)
Turnover Differential: +3 (#11 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 275.9 (#30 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 342.4 (#19 of 32)

2010 SCHEDULE: Strength – 21.19 (9th toughest of 32)
DATE – OPPONENT, TIME
9/12/10 – MIAMI, 1:00 PM
9/19/10 – at Green Bay, 1:00 PM
9/26/10 – at New England, 1:00 PM
10/3/10 – NY JETS, 1:00 PM
10/10/10 – JACKSONVILLE, 1:00 PM
10/24/10 – at Baltimore, 1:00 PM
10/31/10 – at Kansas City, 1:00 PM
11/7/10 – CHICAGO (in Toronto), 1:00 PM
11/11/10 – DETROIT, 8:30 PM
11/21/10 – at Cincinnati, 1:00 PM
11/28/10 – PITTSBURGH, 1:00 PM
12/5/10 – at Minnesota, 1:00 PM
12/12/10 – CLEVELAND, 1:00 PM
12/19/10 – at Miami, 1:00 PM
12/26/10 – NEW ENGLAND, 1:00 PM
1/2/11 – at NY Jets, 1:00 PM

Sample StatFox Power Trend for 2010

  • BUFFALO is on a 13-2 UNDER the total (+10.8 Units) run on the road vs. teams giving up 17 or less PPG The Average Score was BUFFALO 14, OPPONENT 22.82010 OUTLOOK
    Buffalo was doomed from the start of 2009, thanks to injuries and suspension, and didn’t do itself any favors by firing the offensive coordinator just days before Week 1. Things haven’t gotten much better since the 6-10 campaign concluded, though a new regime, led by GM Buddy Nix and HC Chan Gailey, is now in place. The primary focus for Gailey is an offense that finished 28th in the NFL in scoring (16.1 PPG), and 30th in passing (157.2 YPG)…Offensive line injuries mixed with unsteady play from three starting quarterbacks left a recipe for disaster. Things were so bad, they left Terrell Owens speechless in his only season with the team. Given Gailey’s background as a QB-friendly coach, Trent Edwards could become a viable starter, and the Bills have upgraded the skill positions by the selection of RB C.J. Spiller (1-Clemson). He is a game-breaker that gives this offensively starved team hope. ? Unfortunately, the line as a whole wasn’t adequately addressed, and Gailey is going to have his work cut out in protecting the QB and jump-starting the ground game…What’s most surprising about the Bills defense is how well it held up in the face of a struggling offense. Buffalo managed to avoid wearing down and closed the year by holding six of its final seven opponents to less than 20 points. The unquestioned strength was a pass defense that ranked No. 2 in the NFL (184.2 YPG) and finished second in interceptions (28). As strong as the secondary is, the line was equally as weak, getting pushed around for 156.3 RYPG and a hefty 4.7 yards per carry…Buffalo is pegged for the basement no matter how you slice it. The AFC East is loaded at the top. Gailey and Spiller aren’t miracle workers, and lacking a solid offensive line means points are still going to be tough to come by. Las Vegas Odds

    YouWager.com Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 5.5
    StatFox Steve’s Take: To me this looks like one of the worst teams in, if not the NFL, then certainly the AFC. As you go through the season schedule, you can point to 10 of 16 games in which they will be prohibitive underdogs. I don’t see the Bills sweeping the other six games. UNDER. Vegas Odds

  • For a more complete look at the 2010 college and pro football seasons, pick up your copy of our annual football magazine, the StatFox Edge, a 160-page Ultimate Handicapping Resource!

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