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BOISE STATE CAN PLAY FOR A BCS TITLE IN 2010
Wed, 18 Aug 2010 08:11 PM EDT

Is there any team playing as more of an overwhelming favorite in its conference than Boise State in the WAC? After a thrilling 14-0 season that was capped by a Fiesta Bowl win, the Broncos return not 50%, not 75%, but 91% of their starters! Plus, they are challenging themselves with non-conference tilts versus Oregon State and Virginia Tech. Should they survive those games unbeaten, there is little reason to believe they won’t sweep through the WAC schedule rather easily en route to the national championship game. This team is that good, and with so much veteran experience back, it won’t get rattled easily nor make “small-school” mistakes in big games. Enough about Boise though, we’re here to discuss the WAC as a whole. Beyond the Broncos, you’ll find the usual cast of bridesmaids. Nevada looks solid, on offense at least, and could actually score more points than Boise this season. Fresno is a bit more balanced but has proven capable of stubbing its toe too much of late. Idaho, Hawaii, and Utah State are programs on the rise, but there is little room in the upper half of the division. Louisiana Tech is in the beginning stages of a new regime and could be rebuilding, while San Jose State and New Mexico State figure to not be able to offensively match the points they figure to give up.

2010 Predicted Finish
1. Boise State
2. Nevada
3. Fresno State
4. Idaho
5. Utah State
6. Hawaii
7. Louisiana Tech
8. San Jose State
9. New Mexico State

BOISE STATE BRONCOS
Head Coach: Chris Petersen, 5th year (49-4 SU)
2009 Record: 14-0 SU, 9-5 ATS
Offense: Multiple – Starters Returning: 10
Defense: 4-3 – Starters Returning: 10

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +25.1 (#2 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +21.5 (#5 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 55 (#9 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/6 – at Virginia Tech
9/18 – at Wyoming
9/25 – OREGON ST
10/2 – at New Mexico St
10/9 – TOLEDO
10/16 – at San Jose St
10/26 – LOUISIANA TECH
11/6 – HAWAII
11/12 – at Idaho
11/19 – FRESNO ST
11/26 – at Nevada
12/4 – UTAH ST
SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 14-0, 36-4 (90%)
Overall ATS: 9-5, 23-13 (64%)
at Home ATS: 4-3, 10-7 (59%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 5-2, 13-6 (68%)
vs Conference ATS: 5-3, 15-7 (68%)
as Favorite ATS: 8-4, 15-11 (58%)
as Underdog ATS: 1-0, 8-1 (89%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 28.57 (103)
Points Scored – Allowed: 42.2 (1) – 17.1 (14)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 450.3 (10) – 300.2 (14)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 6.53 (11) – 4.78 (22)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 5.13 (10) – 3.83 (49)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 8.07 (21) – 5.74 (12)
Turnover Differential: +1.5 (3)

2010 OUTLOOK
With a 17-10 victory over TCU in the Fiesta Bowl, Boise State showed it could play some serious defense, moving beyond the stage of having to outscore opponents, as it did against Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl three years earlier. And with a phenomenal amount of returning talent, and a schedule that offers a chance for more credibility, Boise State is in position to do something even bigger in 2010…It says something about the WAC that the Broncos were only third in the conference in total offense, yet ranked 10th in the country by averaging 450.3 YPG. The offense brings back 10 starters and should be as dynamic as ever, with junior quarterback Kellen Moore leading the way. Perhaps the most remarkable statistic from Moore’s season, even beyond his 39 touchdown passes, is that he threw only three interceptions among 431 attempts. Nate Potter leads an experienced line that allowed only five sacks, while Austin Pettis and Titus Young are outstanding wide receivers and the Broncos also run the ball effectively with a variety of weapons…As the Fiesta Bowl illustrated, defense is truly the reason that Boise State dominates the WAC. Plenty of teams in this league can move the football, but only the Broncos can really stop anybody. Boise State ranked 14th in the country in total defense, allowing only 300.2 YPG, and that’s a major achievement against the diverse, productive offenses of the WAC. Boise State lost coordinator Justin Wilcox to Tennessee, but with Pete Kwiatkowski promoted to replace him and 10 starters coming back, no drop off is expected… The 2010 opener against Virginia Tech at FedEx Field could propel Boise State toward a national title shot. A 12-0 season is not out of the question, and they start the season high enough in the polls to become a genuine national title contender. Having lost only six lettermen from a 14-0 team, head coach Chris Petersen is positioned to do something special in his fifth season. Odds

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* BOISE ST is on a 17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) run at home vs. teams with a winning record . The Average Score was BOISE ST 44.6, OPPONENT 20.5

FRESNO STATE BULLDOGS
Head Coach: Pat Hill, 14th year (100-66 SU)
2009 Record: 8-5 SU, 7-5 ATS
Offense: Pro Set – Starters Returning: 8
Defense: 4-3 – Starters Returning: 8

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +5.5 (#44 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +2.3 (#57 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 33 (#75 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 – CINCINNATI
9/18 – at Utah St
9/25 – at Ole Miss
10/2 – CAL POLY SLO
10/9 – HAWAII
10/16 – NEW MEXICO ST
10/23 – at San Jose St
11/6 – at Louisiana Tech
11/13 – NEVADA
11/19 – at Boise St
11/27 – IDAHO
12/3 – ILLINOIS

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 8-5, 24-15 (62%)
Overall ATS: 7-5, 16-21 (43%)
at Home ATS: 1-3, 3-11 (21%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 6-2, 13-10 (57%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-4, 9-15 (38%)
as Favorite ATS: 4-3, 7-12 (37%)
as Underdog ATS: 3-2, 9-9 (50%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 29.38 (97)
Points Scored – Allowed: 33.8 (14) – 28.4 (84)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 430.5 (17) – 413.7 (98)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 6.39 (14) – 6.49 (110)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 5.36 (5) – 6.01 (117)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 8.17 (16) – 7.09 (59)
Turnover Differential: -0.8 (109)

2010 OUTLOOK
Fresno State lost some credibility for itself and the WAC in the New Mexico Bowl as the league’s No. 3 team lost to the Mountain West’s No. 5 team (Wyoming) in double overtime. The Bulldogs also lost in double overtime at Wisconsin, preventing them from enjoying a very successful season. They will miss running back Ryan Mathews, but otherwise have the makings of another solid team…There’s no telling how much Mathews was personally responsible for with his nation-leading 1,808 rushing yards. But the Bulldogs would like to think their line and offensive system played enough of a role in his success that someone like Robbie Rouse can step into his position and be productive. With right guard Andrew Jackson, who has started 31 straight games, leading the way, the Bulldogs have all five starters returning up front—including four seniors. Quarterback Ryan Colburn’s continued development should help diversify an offense that ranked sixth in the WAC (17th nationally), averaging 430.5 YPG…The Bulldogs’ defense let them down in some big games, and their 413.7 YPG average ranked only fifth in the league and 98th in the country in total defense. Relatively speaking, the defense can say it outperformed an offense that ranked sixth in the league, but that yardage figure speaks for itself. With eight returning starters, Fresno State hopes that more experience translates into better results…The fact the Bulldogs had a minus-10 turnover ratio, and still won eight games, is probably a good sign, because a Hill-coached team rarely has such a deficiency. Fresno State faces another challenging schedule as the only WAC school to meet three teams from BCS leagues, but if recent history continues, the Bulldogs will play better against those non-conference opponents than they do against the WAC’s top-tier teams. So it shapes up as another winning season and an 11th bowl appearance in 12 seasons for Fresno State, but without a conference title in its future. Scores

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* FRESNO ST is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) at home since ‘07. The Average Score was FRESNO ST 30.2, OPPONENT 25.6

HAWAII RAINBOWS
Head Coach: Greg McMackin, 3rd year (13-14 SU)
2009 Record: 6-7 SU, 6-6 ATS
Offense: Spread – Starters Returning: 4
Defense: 4-3 – Starters Returning: 7

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -6.7 (#95 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -7.7 (#97 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 22 (#101 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/2 – USC
9/11 – at Army
9/18 – at Colorado
9/25 – CHARLESTON SOUT
10/2 – LOUISIANA TECH
10/9 – at Fresno St
10/16 – NEVADA
10/23 – at Utah St
10/30 – IDAHO
11/6 – at Boise St
11/20 – SAN JOSE ST
11/27 – at New Mexico St
12/4 – UNLV
SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 6-7, 25-15 (63%)
Overall ATS: 6-6, 16-19 (46%)
at Home ATS: 2-4, 7-10 (41%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 4-2, 9-9 (50%)
vs Conference ATS: 3-5, 11-12 (48%)
as Favorite ATS: 2-1, 8-10 (44%)
as Underdog ATS: 4-5, 8-9 (47%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 27.85 (106)
Points Scored – Allowed: 22.8 (89) – 29.5 (90)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 437.5 (14) – 403.0 (91)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 6.61 (9) – 6.01 (97)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 4.47 (46) – 4.89 (103)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 7.70 (33) – 7.83 (95)
Turnover Differential: -0.8 (113)

2010 OUTLOOK
Recovering from a slow start, the Warriors made a late run at qualifying for the hometown Hawaii Bowl, but fell one win short with a 6-7 record when Wisconsin ended Hawaii’s four-game winning streak in the season finale. It was a classic case of doing some things well, but just not consistently enough, with the biggest disappointment being a 3-5 record in WAC play. If a revamped coaching staff performs the way head coach Greg McMackin hopes, and if the Warriors can hold onto the ball and convert more of their drives into points, they should improve…Bryant Moniz gained a following as a walk-on starting quarterback, and he also served up a good share of yards and points. Starting eight of Hawaii’s last nine games, Moniz threw for 2,396 yards and 14 touchdowns. He helped the Warriors average 337.0 yards through the air as they ranked in the country’s top four in passing yards for the 10th time in 11 years. He again will throw to a pair of outstanding receivers, Greg Salas and Kealoha Pilares Nick Rolovich, a former Hawaii quarterback, was promoted to coordinator in the staff’s reshuffling and promises to be even more aggressive. For that to happen, a young offensive line will have to protect Moniz sufficiently… McMackin also demoted his former coordinator, giving the job to Dave Aranda. Even though the Warriors ranked third in the WAC in total defense, they were only 91st in the country, allowing 403.0 YPG. Aranda’s defense will be built around a solid secondary with five returning players…Hawaii again should be right on the fence of the seven-win level for eligibility in its hometown bowl game. The biggest variable could be turnover margin. Anything better than a WAC-worst minus-11 figure would probably be enough to give the Warriors that one extra victory to become bowl eligible.

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* HAWAII is on a 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) skid as road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points . The Average Score was HAWAII 17.8, OPPONENT 37.7

IDAHO VANDALS
Head Coach: Robb Akey, 5th year (11-26 SU)
2009 Record: 8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS
Offense: Multiple – Starters Returning: 7
Defense: 3-4 – Starters Returning: 10

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -3.3 (#85 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -4.6 (#86 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 23 (#98 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/2 – N DAKOTA
9/11 – at Nebraska
9/18 – UNLV
9/25 – at Colorado St
10/2 – at W Michigan
10/16 – at Louisiana Tech
10/23 – NEW MEXICO ST
10/30 – at Hawaii
11/6 – NEVADA
11/12 – BOISE ST
11/20 – at Utah St
11/27 – at Fresno St
12/4 – SAN JOSE ST

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 8-5, 11-26 (30%)
Overall ATS: 8-5, 14-20 (41%)
at Home ATS: 3-3, 5-10 (33%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 5-2, 9-10 (47%)
vs Conference ATS: 3-5, 7-16 (30%)
as Favorite ATS: 1-2, 1-4 (20%)
as Underdog ATS: 7-3, 13-16 (45%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 29.77 (93)
Points Scored – Allowed: 32.7 (20) – 36.0 (114)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 451.0 (9) – 433.5 (107)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 6.88 (4) – 6.50 (111)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 4.68 (28) – 4.75 (100)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 9.41 (4) – 8.19 (108)
Turnover Differential: -0.6 (106)

2010 OUTLOOK
After winning only three games in his first two seasons, head coach Robb Akey staged a stunning turnaround of Idaho’s program in 2009. The Vandals went 8-5, closing with a dramatic win over Bowling Green in the Humanitarian Bowl, and becoming one of the best stories in college football. With Idaho’s offensive playmakers returning, there’s potential for Akey to keep his program at its new level…The Vandals return seven offensive starters, but that overlooks the fact that four linemen with starting experience have departed. The best of them was guard Mike Iupati, a highly regarded NFL prospect. Matt Cleveland, a tackle, will become the anchor of a line that helped the Vandals rank second in the WAC and ninth in the country in total offense, averaging 451.0 YPG. Having endured some rough times early in his career, quarterback Nathan Enderle enjoyed better protection and was very effective last season, passing for 264.1 yards per game and 22 touchdowns with only nine interceptions…Safety Shiloh Keo and end Aaron Lavarias are the defensive stars. The Vandals basically had to outscore opponents, though, as the defense ranked only seventh in the WAC by allowing 433.5 YPG. That figure will have to improve if Idaho is going to solidify itself in its new-found position as a top four program in the conference. It should help that as a result of some job-sharing, the school lists 12 returning starters on defense…Going from having won just one conference game in two seasons to four victories was a huge jump. Just maintaining the 4-4 WAC record will be an achievement, so the key to Idaho’s season will be the non-conference schedule. Factoring in a loss at Nebraska, games against UNLV, Colorado State and Western Michigan likely will determine whether the Vandals can make another bowl appearance and maintain last year’s success. Las Vegas Odds

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* Over the L2 seasons, IDAHO is 7-0 OVER the total (+7 Units) on the road revenging a loss against opponent. The Average Score was IDAHO 25.6, OPPONENT 48.6

LOUISIANA TECH BULLDOGS
Head Coach: Sonny Dykes, 1st year (First Year SU)
2009 Record: 4-8 SU, 8-4 ATS
Offense: Spread – Starters Returning: 8
Defense: Multiple – Starters Returning: 6

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +3.4 (#55 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -0.4 (#70 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 35 (#66 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 – GRAMBLING
9/11 – at Texas A&M
9/18 – NAVY
9/25 – SOUTHERN MISS
10/2 – at Hawaii
10/9 – UTAH ST
10/16 – IDAHO
10/26 – at Boise St
11/6 – FRESNO ST
11/13 – at New Mexico St
11/27 – at San Jose St
12/4 – NEVADA

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 4-8, 17-20 (46%)
Overall ATS: 8-4, 20-14 (59%)
at Home ATS: 5-0, 11-3 (79%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-4, 9-11 (45%)
vs Conference ATS: 6-2, 15-8 (65%)
as Favorite ATS: 3-0, 7-5 (58%)
as Underdog ATS: 4-4, 12-9 (57%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 29.67 (95)
Points Scored – Allowed: 29.2 (46) – 25.8 (61)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 372.3 (64) – 368.2 (60)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 5.45 (67) – 5.34 (53)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 4.43 (48) – 4.24 (80)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 7.05 (66) – 6.70 (41)
Turnover Differential: +0.6 (19)

2010 OUTLOOK
Having lost coach Derek Dooley to Tennessee, the Bulldogs are looking to Sonny Dykes to revitalize their offense and help make a move in the WAC standings. Louisiana Tech battled through injuries and narrow defeats last season and is capable of threatening for an upper-division if Dykes’ spread offense catches on with the players…Like any new head coach, Dykes was faced with the challenge of plugging his players into a system that’s far different from what the Bulldogs were running under Dooley. The immediate task is finding a quarterback who can be effective in the spread scheme, and that person may not be returning starter Ross Jenkins, but rather former tight end, Steven Ensminger. Phillip Livas is one player who should thrive in the new system that Dykes brought from Arizona as the Wildcats’ former coordinator. A dynamic kick returner, Livas accomplished as much as a runner taking direct snaps as he did as a receiver catching passes. Up front, the Bulldogs will be led by lineman Rob McGill, who’s dependable. Tech has eight returning starters on offense, but the question is how readily their experience translates to a new scheme. The Bulldogs ranked seventh in the WAC, averaging 372.3 TYPG…Injuries took a toll on the Bulldogs defense, as 18 players missed at least half of a game, but the unit held up reasonably well. Tech ranked 60th in the country in total defense, allowing 368.2 YPG. In the WAC, that was good enough for second. Six starters return, led by lineman Matt Broha and linebacker Tank Calais…The Bulldogs’ non-conference schedule remains difficult, but if they can stay more healthy than last season, and pull out some close games after losing three WAC contests by a total of five points, they have a chance for bowl eligibility. The big variable, obviously, is how quickly the offense can embrace Dykes’ scheme and make it work.

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* Over the L2 seasons, LOUISIANA TECH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) at home. The Average Score was LOUISIANA TECH 39.4, OPPONENT 23

NEVADA WOLFPACK
Head Coach: Chris Ault, 7th year (206-95-1 SU)
2009 Record: 8-5 SU, 7-6 ATS
Offense: Pistol – Starters Returning: 9
Defense: 4-3 – Starters Returning: 6

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +9.7 (#24 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +7.5 (#34 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 43 (#40 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/2 – E WASHINGTON
9/11 – COLORADO ST
9/17 – CALIFORNIA
9/25 – at BYU
10/2 – at UNLV
10/9 – SAN JOSE ST
10/16 – at Hawaii
10/30 – UTAH ST
11/6 – at Idaho
11/13 – at Fresno St
11/20 – NEW MEXICO ST
11/26 – BOISE ST
12/4 – at Louisiana Tech

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 8-5, 21-18 (54%)
Overall ATS: 7-6, 17-20 (46%)
at Home ATS: 4-2, 9-7 (56%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-4, 8-13 (38%)
vs Conference ATS: 6-2, 13-11 (54%)
as Favorite ATS: 6-4, 12-13 (48%)
as Underdog ATS: 1-2, 5-7 (42%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 29.31 (98)
Points Scored – Allowed: 38.2 (6) – 28.5 (86)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 505.6 (2) – 409.3 (96)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 7.30 (1) – 6.40 (108)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 7.39 (1) – 3.63 (35)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 7.13 (62) – 8.98 (117)
Turnover Differential: -0.2 (75)

2010 OUTLOOK
Nevada’s offense was either unstoppable or non-existent. The Wolf Pack opened the season by being shut out at Notre Dame and posted only 10 points in a Hawaii Bowl loss to SMU. In between, Nevada registered totals such as 52, 62, 63 (twice) and 70, while racking up all kinds of rushing yards. If the Wolf Pack can be more consistent offensively and if a new defensive scheme can make two stars even more productive, this team should stay in the WAC race right up until the late-November clash with Boise State…Nevada’s personnel will frighten a lot of defensive coordinators. It all starts with 6-6 quarterback Colin Kaepernick, who is equally proficient as a runner and passer in the Pistol scheme developed by veteran head coach Chris Ault. Right behind him in the Pistol scheme is running back Vai Taua, whose 1,345 yards made him another of Nevada’s three 1,000-yard rushers in 2009. The Wolf Pack lead the nation with 344.9 rushing yards per game. With nine returning starters, Nevada’s offense may even improve on its No. 2 ranking with 505.6 total yards…Like most WAC defenses, Nevada looked better compared with its conference rivals than with the rest of the country. The Wolf Pack ranked fourth in the conference and 96th nationally, allowing 409.3 YPG. Coordinator Andy Buh, who most recently coached at Stanford, has returned to Nevada. He’s installing his own version of a 4-3 scheme. The front seven that also includes All-WAC linebacker James-Michael Johnson should be strong. Rebuilding the secondary will be a priority, especially in preparing to face WAC offenses… Nevada’s non-conference performance was disappointing. The Wolf Pack will hope for a much better start, with the rare opportunity of three home games to begin the schedule. The Wolf Pack are sure to play in a sixth consecutive bowl game, but overtaking Boise State for the WAC title remains a huge challenge.

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* NEVADA is on a 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) skid as road favorites of 3.5 to 7 points . The Average Score was NEVADA 29.7, OPPONENT 33.1

NEW MEXICO STATE AGGIES
Head Coach: DeWayne Walker, 2nd year (3-10 SU)
2009 Record: 3-10 SU, 6-7 ATS
Offense: Pro – Starters Returning: 8
Defense: 4-3 – Starters Returning: 6

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -20.2 (#115 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -20.8 (#117 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 12 (#117 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/11 – SAN DIEGO ST
9/18 – at UTEP
9/25 – at Kansas
10/2 – BOISE ST
10/9 – NEW MEXICO
10/16 – at Fresno St
10/23 – at Idaho
10/30 – SAN JOSE ST
11/6 – at Utah St
11/13 – LOUISIANA TECH
11/20 – at Nevada
11/27 – HAWAII
SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 3-10, 10-28 (26%)
Overall ATS: 6-7, 15-20 (43%)
at Home ATS: 1-5, 6-10 (38%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 5-2, 9-10 (47%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-4, 11-13 (46%)
as Favorite ATS: 0-1, 2-3 (40%)
as Underdog ATS: 6-5, 13-16 (45%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 28.77 (102)
Points Scored – Allowed: 11.5 (120) – 31.6 (101)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 229.5 (120) – 430.1 (106)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 3.87 (120) – 6.39 (107)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 3.66 (86) – 5.78 (115)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 4.24 (120) – 7.25 (74)
Turnover Differential: -0.8 (109)

2010 OUTLOOK
After winning only three games and ranking last in the country in total offense in head coach DeWayne Walker’s first season, New Mexico State faces an upgraded non-conference schedule in 2010. The Aggies defeated an improved Utah State team, but that was their only conference victory. The offense is sure to be better because it could not get any worse. The question is whether it will improve enough to give New Mexico State any chance of winning…Walker, whose background is on defense, radically changed the Aggies’ offensive approach. Instead of keeping the spread scheme and the all-out passing attacked, Walker turned the Aggies into a power running outfit. The result was an average of 229.5 TYPG, making New Mexico State’s three victories in close, low-scoring games seem like quite an achievement. The tradeoff may have been helping the Aggie defense by shortening games, but the offense obviously needs an upgrade if the Aggies are to climb out of the WAC cellar. That’s the task awaiting new coordinator Jeff Dunbar, a veteran coach who most recently worked as Minnesota’s OC in 2008. It should help that quarterback Jeff Fleming has a year’s experience…Walker did manage to improve one of the country’s worst defenses, as he was expected to do after coming from UCLA’s coordinator position. The Aggies moved up to sixth in the WAC and 106th nationally by allowing 430.1 YPG, and the defense kept them in the three games they eventually won by three points. The return of six starters should enable Walker to keep making progress with his defense…A different scheduling approach gave both Mumme and Walker the chance to experience winning, but success against those FCS opponents did not seem to carry over into WAC play. Gone is the FCS opponent (or two) from recent seasons. Only if the Aggies’ offense is dramatically better can they even hope to match last season’s three-win total.

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* Over the L2 seasons, NEW MEXICO ST is 7-0 UNDER the total (+7 Units) on the road in the second half of the season. The Average Score was NEW MEXICO ST 8, OPPONENT 30.7

SAN JOSE STATE SPARTANS
Head Coach: Mike MacIntyre, 1st year (First Year SU)
2009 Record: 2-10 SU, 2-10 ATS
Offense: Multiple – Starters Returning: 8
Defense: 4-3 – Starters Returning: 7

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -20.8 (#117 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -19.1 (#115 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 15 (#115 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 – at Alabama
9/11 – at Wisconsin
9/18 – S UTAH
9/25 – at Utah
10/2 – CAL DAVIS
10/9 – at Nevada
10/16 – BOISE ST
10/23 – FRESNO ST
10/30 – at New Mexico St
11/13 – UTAH ST
11/20 – at Hawaii
11/27 – LOUISIANA TECH
12/4 – at Idaho

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 2-10, 13-23 (36%)
Overall ATS: 2-10, 14-20 (41%)
at Home ATS: 2-4, 8-7 (53%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 0-6, 6-13 (32%)
vs Conference ATS: 0-8, 9-15 (38%)
as Favorite ATS: 0-2, 5-4 (56%)
as Underdog ATS: 1-8, 8-16 (33%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 32.5 (73)
Points Scored – Allowed: 13.8 (118) – 34.5 (109)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 286.3 (115) – 442.9 (109)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 4.56 (110) – 6.68 (115)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 2.64 (117) – 6.13 (118)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 6.22 (102) – 7.63 (92)
Turnover Differential: -0.3 (83)

2010 OUTLOOK
Dick Tomey revived San Jose State’s program, only to regress in his last couple of years before retiring after a successful career. Now comes Mike MacIntyre, who knows something about working in a downtrodden program, having made Duke’s defense more than respectable. MacIntyre’s challenge is about equal on each side of the ball, after the Spartans tied for eighth place in the WAC last season…MacIntyre’s rebuilding of the offense experienced a setback when his original choice as coordinator moved to Arkansas State after two months on the job. Tim Landis was moved from special teams to take over the offense, although the basic plans remained intact. The first issue is choosing a quarterback, whether it’s returning starter Jordan La Secla, Matt Faulkner or Dasmen Stewart. The Spartans also return running back Lamon Muldrow, whose 592 yards included a 184-yard game against Cal Poly. The line is led by guard Isaac Leatiota, who has made 30 career starts. But whether the improvement comes from a new scheme, individual development or personnel changes, San Jose State will have to be much more productive after ranking eighth in the WAC and 111th nationally with 286.3 YPG…If MacIntyre could succeed in the ACC with Duke’s level of recruiting, he should make an impact with San Jose State’s defense, which ranked eighth in the WAC and 109th nationally at 442.9 YPG. Senior safety Duke Ihenacho is the kind of player he can build a defense around. The defense will be severely tested by a non-conference schedule that includes trips to Alabama, Wisconsin and Utah…San Jose State is a long way from the top half of the WAC. MacIntyre has a chance to build something with the Spartans, but it will take awhile. Winning more than one WAC game will be difficult—the Spartans had better beat New Mexico State.

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* Over the L2 seasons, SAN JOSE ST is 0-10 ATS (-11 Units) after playing 3 straight conference games. The Average Score was SAN JOSE ST 13.2, OPPONENT 31.1

UTAH STATE AGGIES
Head Coach: Gary Andersen, 2nd year (4-8 SU)
2009 Record: 4-8 SU, 8-4 ATS
Offense: Spread – Starters Returning: 8
Defense: 4-3 – Starters Returning: 9

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -4.9 (#88 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -5.1 (#88 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 27 (#91 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 – at Oklahoma
9/11 – IDAHO ST
9/18 – FRESNO ST
9/25 – at San Diego St
10/1 – BYU
10/9 – at Louisiana Tech
10/23 – HAWAII
10/30 – at Nevada
11/6 – NEW MEXICO ST
11/13 – at San Jose St
11/20 – IDAHO
12/4 – at Boise St

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 4-8, 9-27 (25%)
Overall ATS: 8-4, 22-13 (63%)
at Home ATS: 3-2, 9-7 (56%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 5-2, 13-6 (68%)
vs Conference ATS: 5-3, 15-8 (65%)
as Favorite ATS: 2-2, 4-3 (57%)
as Underdog ATS: 6-1, 18-9 (67%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 30.67 (84)
Points Scored – Allowed: 29.1 (47) – 34.0 (107)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 439.3 (12) – 455.1 (114)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 6.05 (28) – 6.36 (106)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 4.66 (32) – 5.29 (109)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 7.88 (25) – 7.64 (93)
Turnover Differential: +0.5 (23)

2010 OUTLOOK
Gary Andersen made progress in his first season as Utah State’s head coach, getting the Aggies to the four-win level for the first time since 2002. Now comes the hard part. Moving up into the WAC’s top half remains challenging, and Andersen acknowledges underestimating the league’s offenses after spending much of his career at Utah of the Mountain West Conference…Coordinator Dave Baldwin may have made as much of an impact as any assistant coach. Utah State ranked fourth in the WAC in total offense, which would be sufficient improvement even if the Aggies were not 12th in the country, averaging 439.3 YPG. Diondre Borel became a complete quarterback in his junior season and Robert Turbin thrived with the running lanes created by the spread scheme. Borel led the WAC in total offense at 278.6 yards, while Turbin, averaged 108.0 yards on the ground and scored 18 touchdowns. Turbin sustained a knee injury in winter workouts and may miss the 2010 season, but the Aggies are fairly well stocked at his position. Stanley Morrison leads a capable group of wide receivers and the line is solid as well…The irony of Andersen’s arrival from a highly successful tenure as Utah’s DC was that Utah State regressed defensively, often wearing down after intermission. Andersen hopes that increased depth will solve that problem. In addition, coordinator Bill Busch has made some personnel moves from the defensive line to linebacker in an effort to get some bigger bodies on the field. In any case, the Aggies have room for improvement after allowing 455.1 YPG to rank last in the WAC and 114th in the country…The Aggies believe they’re on the verge of bowl eligibility for the first time since 1997. They are likely to need four WAC wins to reach six victories overall, which would require a much better effort from the defense.

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* UTAH ST is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) as road underdogs since ‘07. The Average Score was UTAH ST 23.4, OPPONENT 38.6


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09/21/2014
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09/25/2014
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