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BRAD STEVENS HAS LED BUTLER TO A 10-1 RECORD IN THE PAST 2 NCAA TOURNAMENTS.
Thu, 05 May 2011 01:52 PM EDT

#8 seed BUTLER BULLDOGS (28-9)

vs. #3 seed CONNECTICUT HUSKIES (31-9)

NCAA Tournament – National Championship
Tip-off: Monday, 9:20 p.m. EDT – Houston, TX
Line: Connecticut -3, Total: 129

It is a journey that began in November, way back when national championship talk focused on strength of schedule, power conferences, and Cam Newton’s eligibility. BCS football was on the brain on November 12, basketball was not. As those heroes played things out on the gridiron, another player of the year candidate got things underway on the hardwood, scoring 18 against Stony Brook, before exploding for 42, 31, 30, 29, and 30 over his next five games, proclaiming to the basketball world there is a beast in the east that you better pay attention to. That is when Kemba Walker and his Connecticut Huskies leased a spot in the national rankings and have been there ever since. Basketball scores.

While Walker was taking names and burying treys, the journey for the Butler Bulldogs (still suffering nightmares from last April’s half-court heave clanging off the rim with the subtlety of a church bell) was not as pleasant. After suffering their first loss of the season to Louisville, 88-73 on November 13, the pundits proclaimed the Bulldogs to be in critical condition. By the time their record fell to 4-4 on December 9, more experts were ready to administer last rites. Fortunately for Butler, players and coaches have more faith in a team’s resiliency than sports writers. Even after dropping three straight gut-wrenching losses (two in OT, a third loss by two points) between January 23 and February 3, Brad Stevens knew the truth about his team when they were 14-9 (6-5). To paraphrase the Ballad of Sir Andrew Barton, the Bulldogs were a little hurt, but not slain. They would lay down and bleed for a while, and then rise to fight again. It is that fight which has carried Butler to 14 straight wins, a conference championship game victory on its opponent’s home floor, two NCAA Tournament victories in the final second, a third in overtime, and a spot back in the National Championship game. As much as Monday night is about winning an NCAA title, the victor will be 50% champion, and 50% survivor. The last one standing in a game featuring two teams with so much fight, and so little quit, Ali and Frazier would be proud.

Jim Calhoun and his Huskies are back in the title game for the first time since 2004. Calhoun is 5-1 lifetime in the Final Four, and is looking to make it 3-for-3 in championship game appearances with a win Monday night. Connecticut advanced to the title game with a 56-55 defeat of Kentucky in Saturday’s national semifinal. In a contest that was a lot lower scoring than anticipated, Kemba Walker led the way with 18 points, six rebounds, seven assists, and two steals. Connecticut pulled out the win by defensively turning the Wildcats strength into a weakness. Kentucky shot 9-of-27 from beyond the arc as the length of the wing players for UConn forced John Calipari’s team to stroke well below its 40% three-point season average. The ‘Cats also suffered at the FT line with their proficiency and their frequency, getting to the line just 12 times, while making only 4-of-12 for the game, a telling number in a game that was lost by a point. The Huskies shot only 8% (1-of-12) from downtown, and were outscored with the three-ball by a 27-3 margin, but overcame the disparity by continuing their defensive vigilance all over the court. It was a bizarre statistical line for the game for Kentucky: 33.9% from the floor, 33.3% from three-point territory, and 33.3% at the foul line. Basketball odds.

Jeremy Lamb once again was the second-leading scorer after Walker with 12 points, and he continued his amazing offensive efficiency, going 5-for-8 from the floor Saturday. Lamb is shooting 59.2% during the tournament. While the Huskies held a slight edge on the boards (38-37), they also held an edge where they prefer not to dominate: turnovers. Connecticut committed 15 miscues, including a crucial one by Shabazz Napier with 0:18 left to give the ‘Cats a chance to tie or take the lead with a three. The 15 turnovers more than doubled UConn’s 7.3 per-game average in four NCAA Tournament games. Napier, Walker and their fellow backcourt mates will need to be especially careful protecting the ball against Butler’s experienced guards, whose quickness and physical man-to-man defense has been underrated the entire tournament.

Butler returns to the title game on the heels of a 70-62 victory over Virginia Commonwealth, ending one Cinderella story, and continuing another. Though truth be told, Cinderella was only around for one night, both of these teams survived a lot longer than one night. Butler got 24 points from its top shooter, Shelvin Mack, 17 points from its top all-around player, Matt Howard, and eight points from arguably the most experienced guard in the nation that comes off the bench, Zach Hahn, who will play in his second championship game on Monday night. Once again, the star of the game over the long haul was Butler’s in-your-face defense. Butler outrebounded the Rams by a 48-32 margin. In terms of defending the shooters, VCU’s Jamie Skeen did have 27 points, but if you take away his 10-of-17 shooting day, the Bulldogs held the rest of the Rams to 13-of-41 FG (32%). While the two teams each generated 24 points from beyond the arc, Butler made more free throws by game’s end (20) than VCU attempted (13). The 15-5 advantage on the offensive boards helped to generate second-chance opportunities that wore down the Rams attempts at a comeback. Connecticut’s wing defenders will need to be just as mindful of Butler’s long-range bombers. Mack has one of the quickest releases in the country, was 5-of-6 from beyond the arc Saturday, and is shooting 41.3% (19-for-46) from downtown for the tournament. Teammate Shawn Vanzant is hitting on 35.3% (6-of-17) from deep in the tourney, and Hahn 29% (5-for-17).

If Connecticut has another 1-of-12 three-point FG night like it did against Kentucky, things could get dicey fast for Calhoun’s squad. In championship games, big shots are usually preceded by big rebounds that account for extra possessions. The battle of the boards will be one of the games within the game, as Howard, Andrew Smith, and Khyle Marshall (8, 7 and 9 boards, respectively, in the win over VCU) will duel it out with Alex Oriakhi, Charles Okwandu, and Roscoe Smith (19 total boards vs. Kentucky) to see who can secure the most important possessions in the paint, and stay out of foul trouble at the same time. Because of Connecticut’s depth up front, Butler can least afford to see one of its top forwards taking an early seat with two first-half fouls.

To quote the late, great Red Barber, this game should be tighter than a new pair of shoes on a rainy day, and nobody has handled themselves better in tight games over the last two NCAA Tournaments than Butler, who is 20-13 ATS (61%) overall. Connecticut is 22-12 ATS (65%) overall and has matched them moment-for-clutch-moment, as this astounding 10-game stretch of basketball which began on a Tuesday in the Big East Tournament will end one way or another Monday… maybe with a half court shot? One way or another, by the end of the evening, either a Bulldog or a Husky will be crowned “best in show.” While the spread feels monstrous for two teams who probably can’t remember what a double-digit victory even looks like, I do believe that Connecticut will make it title No. 3 for their coach, and find a way to cover down the stretch. The following highly- rated FoxSheets situational trends support this pick.

CONNECTICUT is 12-1 ATS (92.3%, +10.9 Units) in all neutral-court games this season. The average score was CONNECTICUT 75.3, OPPONENT 65.5 – (Rating = 5*).

Jim Calhoun is 25-8 ATS (75.8%, +16.2 Units) after a close win by 3 points or less as the coach of CONNECTICUT. The average score was CONNECTICUT 74.5, OPPONENT 64.4 – (Rating = 3*).

CONNECTICUT is 9-1 ATS (90.0%, +7.9 Units) in road games versus excellent ball handling teams – committing <=12 turnovers/game this season. The average score was CONNECTICUT 71.6, OPPONENT 65.1 – (Rating = 3*).

CONNECTICUT is 9-1 ATS (90.0%, +7.9 Units) in non-conference games this season. The average score was CONNECTICUT 76.6, OPPONENT 62.7 – (Rating = 3*).

UConn has played five of six games Under the total and these two highly-rated FoxSheets trends also side with the Under on Monday.

CONNECTICUT is 13-2 UNDER (86.7%, +10.8 Units) versus excellent ball handling teams – committing <=12 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CONNECTICUT 66.8, OPPONENT 63.4 – (Rating = 3*). Basketball spreads.

Play Under – All teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (BUTLER) – after 2 or more consecutive overs, in a game involving two average offensive teams (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games. (85-41 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.5%, +39.9 units. Rating = 3*).


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USA - MLSTORONTO vs. PORTLAND10:00 AM PST
Israel - Premier LeagueHAPOEL AKKO vs. B JERUSALEM10:10 AM PST
Greece - Super LeagueA ATHINON vs. O PIRAEUS10:30 AM PST
Portugal - Primeira LigaESTORIL P vs. BENFICA10:30 AM PST
Holland - EredivisiePEC ZWOLLE vs. HERACLES10:45 AM PST
France - Ligue 1LILLE vs. BASTIA11:00 AM PST
France - Ligue 1LORIENT vs. EVIAN GAILLARD11:00 AM PST
France - Ligue 1METZ vs. S DE REIMS11:00 AM PST
France - Ligue 1MONTPELLIER vs. GUINGAMP11:00 AM PST
Spain - La LigaATL MADRID vs. SEVILLA11:00 AM PST
Chile - PrimeraAUDAX vs. U DE CHILE11:30 AM PST
Poland - EkstraklasaL WARSZAWA vs. L POZNAN11:30 AM PST
Uruguay - Primera DivisionRAMPLA JRS vs. RACING MONT11:30 AM PST
Uruguay - Primera DivisionATL RENTISTAS vs. ATENAS DE SC11:30 AM PST
Uruguay - Primera DivisionCERRO vs. TANQUE SISLEY11:30 AM PST
Uruguay - Primera DivisionJUV LAS PIEDRAS vs. INST ATL SUDAME11:30 AM PST
Holland - EredivisieGO A EAGLES vs. FEYENOORD11:45 AM PST
Holland - EredivisieA DEN HAAG vs. AZ ALKMAAR11:45 AM PST
Italy - Serie AATALANTA vs. JUVENTUS11:45 AM PST
Colombia - Liga Postobon IIDEP LA EQUIDAD vs. ATL HUILA12:00 PM PST
Paraguay - Primera DivisionSOL DE AMERICA vs. GRAL DIAZ12:00 PM PST
Paraguay - Primera DivisionNAC ASUNCION vs. C PORTENO12:00 PM PST
Paraguay - Primera DivisionSP LUQUENO vs. LIB ASUNCION12:00 PM PST
Paraguay - Primera DivisionO ASUNCION vs. GUARANI A12:00 PM PST
Uruguay - Primera DivisionPENAROL MONT vs. RIVER PLATE12:00 PM PST
USA - MLSDC UNITED vs. PHILADELPHIA12:00 PM PST
Brazil - Serie BP PRETA vs. CEARA12:10 PM PST
Peru - PrimeraJ AURICH vs. SP CIENCIANO12:30 PM PST
Peru - PrimeraINTI GAS DEP vs. U COMERCIO12:30 PM PST
Portugal - Primeira LigaSP BRAGA vs. RIO AVE12:30 PM PST
Brazil - Serie BOESTE vs. BRAGANTINO1:00 PM PST
Brazil - Serie BICASA vs. ABC1:00 PM PST
Brazil - Serie BAVAI vs. BOA EC1:00 PM PST
Brazil - Serie BATLETICO GO vs. PORTUGUESA1:00 PM PST
Brazil - Serie BAMER MINEIRO MG vs. SANTA CRUZ1:00 PM PST
Spain - La LigaATH BILBAO vs. EIBAR1:00 PM PST
Spain - La LigaLEVANTE vs. R VALLECANO1:00 PM PST
Colombia - Torneo PostobonDEP AGUABLANCA vs. EXP ROJO1:15 PM PST
Brazil - Serie ASP RECIFE vs. CRUZEIRO2:30 PM PST
Brazil - Serie ACHAPECOENSE vs. CRICIUMA2:30 PM PST
Mexico - PrimeraCRUZ AZUL vs. LEON3:00 PM PST
Colombia - Liga Postobon IIENVIGADO vs. JR BARRANQUILLA3:30 PM PST
CFLTigercats vs Blue Bombers3:35 PM PST
UFCC Gibson vs M Gamburyan4:00 PM PST
Colombia - Liga Postobon IIDEP TOLIMA vs. A RISARALDA4:00 PM PST
USA - MLSVANCOUVER vs. R SALT LAKE4:00 PM PST
UFCJ Tuck vs K Lee4:25 PM PST
Chile - PrimeraU ESPANOLA vs. DEP ANTOFAGASTA4:30 PM PST
Brazil - Serie ASAO PAULO vs. FLUMINENSE5:00 PM PST
Mexico - PrimeraMONTERREY vs. ATLAS DE GUAD5:00 PM PST
UFCB Ebersole vs J Howard5:05 PM PST
UFCP Cote vs S Thompson5:25 PM PST
UFCJ Krause vs J Masvidal5:50 PM PST
Colombia - Liga Postobon IIMILLONARIOS vs. FORTALEZA6:00 PM PST
Mexico - Liga de AscensoCELAYA vs. CORAS TEPIC6:00 PM PST
USA - MLSCOLORADO vs. SJ EARTHQUAKES6:00 PM PST
Mexico - PrimeraATL PACHUCA vs. UANL TIGRES6:06 PM PST
UFCT Mizugaki vs D Cruz6:25 PM PST
CFLB.C. Lions vs Stampeders6:35 PM PST
Costa Rica - Primera DivisionHEREDIANO vs. SANTOS7:00 PM PST
Mexico - PrimeraU DE GUAD vs. ATL M MORELIA7:00 PM PST
UFCA NUNES vs C ZINGANO7:05 PM PST
UFCT Kennedy vs Y Romero7:25 PM PST
UFCD Poirier vs C McGregor7:50 PM PST
UFCD Cerrone vs E Alvarez8:20 PM PST
UFCC Cariaso vs D Johnson8:50 PM PST
09/28/2014
Spain - La LigaGETAFE vs. MALAGA03:00 AM PST
Spain - Segunda DivisionTENERIFE vs. U DEP LAS PALMAS03:00 AM PST
Holland - EredivisieEXCELSIOR vs. C LEEUWARDEN03:30 AM PST
Italy - Serie ASASSUOLO vs. NAPOLI03:30 AM PST
France - Ligue 1G BORDEAUX vs. S RENNES05:00 AM PST
Wales -Premier LeagueNEW SAINTS vs. NEWTOWN05:00 AM PST
England - ChampionshipREADING vs. WOLVERHAMPTON05:15 AM PST
Holland - EredivisieGRONINGEN vs. WILLEM II05:30 AM PST
Holland - EredivisieTWENTE vs. UTRECHT05:30 AM PST
Greece - Super LeaguePANATHINAIKOS vs. NIKI VOLOU06:00 AM PST
Italy - Serie ACESENA vs. MILAN06:00 AM PST
Italy - Serie ACHIEVO V vs. EMPOLI06:00 AM PST
Italy - Serie AINTER vs. CAGLIARI06:00 AM PST
Italy - Serie ATORINO vs. FIORENTINA06:00 AM PST
Germany - BundesligaAUGSBURG vs. HERTHA BERLIN06:30 AM PST
Poland - EkstraklasaG ZABRZE vs. L GDANSK06:30 AM PST
Uruguay - Primera DivisionATL FENIX vs. DANUBIO06:30 AM PST
Holland - EredivisieHEERENVEEN vs. PSV07:45 AM PST
England - Premier LeagueWEST BROM vs. BURNLEY08:00 AM PST
France - Ligue 1LENS vs. CAEN08:00 AM PST
France - Ligue 1NANTES vs. O LYONNAIS08:00 AM PST
Portugal - Primeira LigaBOAVISTA vs. G VICENTE08:00 AM PST
Portugal - Primeira LigaAROUCA vs. ACAD DE COIMBRA08:00 AM PST
Portugal - Primeira LigaMARITIMO F vs. V GUIMARAES08:00 AM PST
Portugal - Primeira LigaMOREIRENSE vs. PENAFIEL08:00 AM PST
Spain - La LigaDEP LA CORUNA vs. ALMERIA08:00 AM PST
Spain - Segunda DivisionMALLORCA vs. BARCELONA B08:00 AM PST
Spain - Segunda DivisionSP GIJON vs. R VALLADOLID08:00 AM PST
Greece - Super LeagueVEROIA vs. PAS GIANNINA08:15 AM PST
Greece - Super LeagueE CHANIA vs. PANAITOLIKOS08:15 AM PST
Greece - Super LeagueLEVADIAKOS vs. AOK KERKYRA08:15 AM PST
Czech - 1. LigaSL LIBEREC vs. M BOLESLAV08:30 AM PST
Germany - BundesligaHAMBURGER vs. E FRANKFURT08:30 AM PST
Poland - EkstraklasaC KRAKOW vs. W KRAKOW09:00 AM PST
Spain - Segunda DivisionALCORCON vs. LEGANES09:00 AM PST
Spain - Segunda DivisionBETIS vs. MIRANDES09:15 AM PST
Costa Rica - Primera DivisionP ZELEDON vs. URUGUAY10:00 AM PST
Costa Rica - Primera DivisionCARMELITA vs. SAPRISSA10:00 AM PST
Mexico - PrimeraPUMAS vs. JAGUARES10:00 AM PST
Portugal - Primeira LigaV SETUBAL vs. NAC MADEIRA10:00 AM PST
Spain - La LigaR SOCIEDAD vs. VALENCIA10:00 AM PST
Israel - Premier LeagueM HAIFA vs. H PETACH TIKVA10:15 AM PST
Greece - Super LeagueP THESSALONIKI vs. OFI KRETA10:30 AM PST
Costa Rica - Primera DivisionUCR vs. BELEN11:00 AM PST
Chile - PrimeraCOBRESAL vs. DEP U CATOLICA11:30 AM PST
Spain - Segunda DivisionDEP PONFERRADINA vs. ALBACETE11:30 AM PST
Italy - Serie AGENOA vs. SAMPDORIA11:45 AM PST
Brazil - Serie ABOTAFOGO vs. GREMIO12:00 PM PST
Brazil - Serie AATLETICO vs. CORINTHIANS12:00 PM PST
Brazil - Serie AATL B HORIZONTE vs. VITORIA12:00 PM PST
Brazil - Serie AB SALVADOR vs. FLAMENGO12:00 PM PST
Bolivia - Liga Profesional BolivianaSP BOYS WARNES vs. P DE YACUIBA12:00 PM PST
France - Ligue 1O MARSEILLE vs. ST ETIENNE12:00 PM PST
Spain - La LigaCORDOBA vs. ESPANYOL12:00 PM PST
Uruguay - Primera DivisionNAC DE FOOTBALL vs. MONTEVIDEO WAND12:00 PM PST
USA - MLSHOUSTON vs. CHICAGO FIRE12:00 PM PST
Argentina - PrimeraBOCA JRS vs. QUILMES1:00 PM PST
Argentina - PrimeraNEWELL'S vs. BANFIELD1:00 PM PST
Argentina - PrimeraBELGRANO vs. RACING1:00 PM PST
Argentina - PrimeraATL RAFAELA vs. OLIMPO B BLANCA1:00 PM PST
Argentina - PrimeraEST LA PLATA vs. VELEZ1:00 PM PST
Argentina - PrimeraSAN LORENZO vs. GIM Y ESG PLATA1:00 PM PST
Argentina - PrimeraTIGRE vs. DEF Y JUST1:00 PM PST
Argentina - PrimeraARSENAL vs. GODOY CRUZ1:00 PM PST
Argentina - PrimeraINDEPENDIENTE vs. ROSARIO C1:00 PM PST
Argentina - PrimeraATL LANUS vs. RIVER PLATE1:00 PM PST
Colombia - Torneo PostobonLLANEROS vs. BOGOTA1:00 PM PST
Ecuador - Serie ALIGA DEP U QUITO vs. MANTA1:00 PM PST
Ecuador - Serie ADEP QUITO vs. EL NACIONAL1:00 PM PST
Ecuador - Serie AU CATOLICA ECU vs. SP EMELEC1:00 PM PST
Colombia - Liga Postobon IIA PETROLERA vs. B PATRIOTAS1:15 PM PST
Jamaica - Premier LeagueBOYS' TOWN vs. H LIONS1:30 PM PST
Jamaica - Premier LeagueTIVOLI GARDENS vs. RIVOLI UTD1:30 PM PST
Bolivia - Liga Profesional BolivianaJ WILSTERMANN vs. SJ ORURO2:00 PM PST
Chile - PrimeraCOLO COLO vs. NUBLENSE2:00 PM PST
Peru - PrimeraU DE DEPORTES vs. LOS CAIMANES2:00 PM PST
Brazil - Serie ASANTOS vs. GOIAS GO2:30 PM PST
Brazil - Serie AINTERNACIONAL vs. CORITIBA2:30 PM PST
Brazil - Serie AFIGUEIRENSE vs. PALMEIRAS2:30 PM PST
Venezuela - Primera DivisionCARACAS vs. DEP LA GUAIRA2:30 PM PST
Jamaica - Premier LeagueCAVALIERS vs. MONTEGO BAY3:00 PM PST
Mexico - PrimeraGUAD CHIVAS vs. PUEBLA3:00 PM PST
Colombia - Liga Postobon IIB CHICO vs. IND SANTA FE3:30 PM PST
Venezuela - Primera DivisionARAGUA vs. DEP LARA3:30 PM PST
Bolivia - Liga Profesional BolivianaO PETROLERO vs. U DE SUCRE4:00 PM PST
Jamaica - Premier LeagueWATERHOUSE vs. HARBOUR VIEW4:00 PM PST
Venezuela - Primera DivisionMETROPOLITANOS vs. TRUJILLANOS4:30 PM PST
Costa Rica - Primera DivisionALAJUELENSE vs. AS PUMA5:00 PM PST
Colombia - Liga Postobon IIDEP CALI vs. IND MEDELLIN5:30 PM PST
USA - MLSLA GALAXY vs. NY RED BULLS5:30 PM PST
09/29/2014
NFLPatriots vs Chiefs5:30 PM PST

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