MINNESOTA VIKINGS (2-3)
at GREEN BAY PACKERS (3-3)
Kickoff: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT, Line: Green Bay -2.5, Total: 44
It’s Brett Favre’s second return trip to Green Bay, but this time he’s more vulnerable with his on-field elbow problems and his off-field text message allegations. After torching the Packers a year ago, Favre is still getting his legs under him in 2010, especially with Randy Moss working his way into the lineup. Look for Minnesota to ride Adrian Peterson instead, especially since the Packers are more susceptible to the run with ILB Nick Barnett out for the year. Miami rumbled for 150 yards in its win over Green Bay last week. Vegas odds.
Favre has been incredible in his two games against Green Bay, completing 70 percent of his passes for 515 yards, seven touchdowns and no interceptions. Moss (nine rec., 136 yds, 1 TD with Minnesota this year) has also shredded the Pack with 66 catches for 1,243 yards and 12 TD in 13 career meetings. RB Adrian Peterson has also enjoyed facing his rival with 604 rushing yards and four touchdowns in six games against Green Bay. If Minnesota can win the turnover battle (minus-5 ratio) and keep the Packers’ excellent pass rush (21 sacks) at bay, it could be a long day for the Cheeseheads.
The Packers have lost their last two home games and last four games overall ATS. Aaron Rodgers has thrown seven interceptions and has been sacked 14 times already this year. But there is hope for an injury-riddled Green Bay team that was missing eight starters against Miami. NFL sack leader LB Clay Matthews is expected to suit up after sitting out last week’s game with a left hamstring injury and WR Donald Driver’s bad quadricep will not prevent him playing on Saturday either. Betting lines.
The Vikings are 11-8 ATS (7-12 SU) at Green Bay since 1992 and this FoxSheets trend shows why Minnesota is the pick on Sunday night.
Play On – Road teams (MINNESOTA) – slow starting offensive team – scoring 7 or less PPG in the first half, after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games.(202-133 since 1983.) (60.3%, +55.7 units. Rating = 2*).
These two FoxSheets trends show that the Over could be worth a play on Sunday.
MINNESOTA is 20-6 OVER (76.9%, +13.4 Units) in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. since 1992. The average score was MINNESOTA 25.3, OPPONENT 29.2 – (Rating = 2*). Sports scores.
Play Over – Any team against the total (GREEN BAY) – after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going under the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games. (106-57 since 1983.) (65%, +43.3 units. Rating = 2*).