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BRONCOS HOPE TO RECOVER FROM LATE-SEASON COLLAPSE
Thu, 15 Jul 2010 06:07 PM EDT

Josh McDaniels certainly made a splash in his first year with the Broncos franchise. On the field, the 2009 season was marked by highs, a 6-0 start, and lows, a 4-game losing streak to close the season. Off the field, the news was just as noteworthy, We’ll break some of that down for you as our 32 NFL teams in 32 days season preview series continues with a look at the 2010 Denver Broncos.Vegas Odds
DENVER BRONCOS
2009 Record:8-8 (-9.1 ML Units), 9-7 ATS
DIVISION:AFC West
COACH:Josh McDaniels, 2nd year (8-8 SU, 9-7 ATS)
STADIUM:Invesco Field
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:60 to 1, AFC Title:30 to 1
StatFox Power Rating:17 (#21 of 32)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating:-0.1 (#19 of 32)

SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 8-8 ~ 23-25 (48%)
ATS: 9-7 ~ 18-30 (38%)
Preseason ATS: 2-2 ~ 6-5 (55%)
Home ATS: 4-4 ~ 8-16 (33%)
Road ATS: 5-3 ~ 10-14 (42%)
Division ATS: 3-3 ~ 6-12 (33%)
Conference ATS: 6-6 ~ 13-23 (36%)
Favorite ATS: 3-3 ~ 6-18 (25%)
Underdog ATS: 6-4 ~ 12-12 (50%)
Over-Under: 7-9 ~ 28-20 (58%)

2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: +0.1 (#18 of 32)
Yardage Differential: +26.4 (#13 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: +0.28 (#15 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: -1.15 (#22 of 32)
Turnover Differential: +7 (#6 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 341.4 (#15 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 315 (#7 of 32)

2010 SCHEDULE: Strength – 19.31 (25th toughest of 32)
DATE – OPPONENT, TIME
9/12/10 – at Jacksonville, 1:00 PM
9/19/10 – SEATTLE, 4:05 PM
9/26/10 – INDIANAPOLIS, 4:15 PM
10/3/10 – at Tennessee, 1:00 PM
10/10/10 – at Baltimore, 1:00 PM
10/17/10 – NY JETS, 4:05 PM
10/24/10 – OAKLAND, 4:15 PM
10/31/10 – vs. San Francisco (London), 1:00 PM
11/14/10 – KANSAS CITY, 4:05 PM
11/22/10 – at San Diego, 8:30 PM
11/28/10 – ST LOUIS, 4:15 PM
12/5/10 – at Kansas City, 1:00 PM
12/12/10 – at Arizona, 4:15 PM
12/19/10 – at Oakland, 4:15 PM
12/26/10 – HOUSTON, 4:05 PM
1/2/11 – SAN DIEGO, 4:15 PM

Sample StatFox Power Trend for 2010

  • DENVER is 1-14 ATS (-14.4 Units) vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better since ‘07. The Average Score was DENVER 15, OPPONENT 31.7 Betting Lines

    2010 OUTLOOK
    Josh McDaniels’ first season as head coach at Denver was filled with ups and downs, as the Broncos got off to a 6-0 start only to lose eight of their last 10 games, missing the postseason. It didn’t get much better since. Two key figures parted ways with the team—DC Mike Nolan and All-Pro WR Brandon Marshall, traded to Miami…Newly acquired QB Brady Quinn will backup Kyle Orton, who set career-highs for completion percentage (62.1), yards (3,802) and TD passes (21). High-profile draftee Tim Tebow is likely to play in only certain sets. Marshall may have been trouble off the field, but his production will be missed on it. Rookie Demaryius Thomas (1a-Georgia Tech) was drafted to replace the superstar, and has similar size to Marshall’s. Knowshon Moreno is comes off a rookie campaign in which he rushed for 947 yards and seven touchdowns. The offensive line needs Ryan Clady to recover fully from a partially torn patellar tendon…Don Martindale was promoted from linebackers coach to coordinator when Nolan left, and he’ll continue to run the 3-4 scheme that ranked third in the NFL in pass defense (186.3 YPG) and seventh in total defense (315.0). The Broncos went the free-agent route to shore up the line, with three new players expected to start, DT Jamal Williams plus ends Justin Bannan and Jarvis Green. The LB corps is strong, led by Elvis Dumervil, who paced the NFL with 17 sacks. The secondary is a veteran unit that still gets the job done, led by ageless FS Brian Dawkins and CB Champ Bailey…The early season schedule is tough, so don’t expect as fast a start as last year. But if the Broncos can get to .500 before the bye week, they have a chance to vie for a playoff spot. Sports Scores

    YouWager.com Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 7.5
    StatFox Steve’s Take: The Broncos were only 8-8 last season despite winning their first six games. This year’s team, minus its most crucial offensive weapon doesn’t seem to have “more” than a year ago. I see them taking a step back, especially with Kansas City and Oakland seemingly improved. UNDER.

  • For a more complete look at the 2010 college and pro football seasons, pick up your copy of our annual football magazine, the StatFox Edge, a 160-page Ultimate Handicapping Resource!

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