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CHIEFS EMULATING PATRIOTS’ RUN OF SUCCESS
Wed, 21 Jul 2010 04:50 PM EDT

It’s been said that Bill Belichick’s Patriots have laid the blueprint for success in this era of NFL football. It such is true, the Chiefs have to be hoping that getting Belichick’s top two coordinators from their Super Bowl run is the answer to what has been ailing the Kansas City franchise. The Chiefs have won just 10 games in three seasons but by most accounts, look ready to make a jump in the suspect AFC West Division. Our 32 NFL teams in 32 days season preview series continues with a look at the 2010 Kansas City Chiefs.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
2009 Record:4-12 (-2.2 ML Units), 7-9 ATS
DIVISION:AFC West
COACH:Todd Haley, 2nd year (4-12 SU, 7-9 ATS)
STADIUM:Arrowhead Stadium
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:100 to 1, AFC Title:50 to 1
StatFox Power Rating:13 (#27 of 32)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating:-8.8 (#29 of 32)

SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 4-12 ~ 10-38 (21%)
ATS: 7-9 ~ 22-25 (47%)
Preseason ATS: 0-4 ~ 1-11 (8%)
Home ATS: 2-6 ~ 6-17 (26%)
Road ATS: 5-3 ~ 16-8 (67%)
Division ATS: 2-4 ~ 9-9 (50%)
Conference ATS: 5-7 ~ 17-19 (47%)
Favorite ATS: 0-2 ~ 0-6 (0%)
Underdog ATS: 7-7 ~ 22-19 (54%)
Over-Under: 9-5 ~ 25-21 (54%)

2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: -8.1 (#27 of 32)
Yardage Differential: -86.3 (#28 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: -1.09 (#28 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: -1.75 (#24 of 32)
Turnover Differential: +1 (#15 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 301.8 (#25 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 388.1 (#30 of 32)

2010 SCHEDULE: Strength – 18 (30th toughest of 32)
DATE – OPPONENT, TIME
9/13/10 – SAN DIEGO, 10:15 PM
9/19/10 – at Cleveland, 1:00 PM
9/26/10 – SAN FRANCISCO, 1:00 PM
10/10/10 – at Indianapolis, 1:00 PM
10/17/10 – at Houston, 1:00 PM
10/24/10 – JACKSONVILLE, 1:00 PM
10/31/10 – BUFFALO, 1:00 PM
11/7/10 – at Oakland, 4:15 PM
11/14/10 – at Denver, 4:05 PM
11/21/10 – ARIZONA, 1:00 PM
11/28/10 – at Seattle, 4:05 PM
12/5/10 – DENVER, 1:00 PM
12/12/10 – at San Diego, 4:15 PM
12/19/10 – at St Louis, 1:00 PM
12/26/10 – TENNESSEE, 1:00 PM
1/2/11 – OAKLAND, 1:00 PM

Sample StatFox Power Trend for 2010

  • KANSAS CITY is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) vs. awful passing defenses – allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse since ‘07. The Average Score was KANSAS CITY 21.1, OPPONENT 22 NFL Betting Lines
  • 2010 OUTLOOK
    The Chiefs have won just 10 games combined since ‘07, including a 4-12 mark in head coach Todd Haley’s debut. Changes needed to be made so Kansas City went out and hired the two most successful assistant coaches on the market, Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel, who helped orchestrate the New England “dynasty”…Weis takes over an offense that ranked just 25th in the NFL with 303.2 YPG. His first order of business is molding QB Matt Cassel into a player worthy of a $63 million contract. Cassel has the tools, but was inconsistent in his first season with the Chiefs, matching 16 touchdowns with 16 interceptions. Weis will get to work with arguably the best backfield of his coaching career as emerging Jamaal Charles is joined by veteran Thomas Jones (Jets) and all-purpose threat Dexter McCluster (2a-Ole Miss). Dwayne Bowe returns as Cassel’s favorite target. The line needs to improve after allowing 42 sacks. Center Casey Wiegmann (Broncos) and guard Ryan Lilja (Colts)—were signed to bring a veteran presence…Crennel may have an even harder task than Weis as he builds a defense that ranked 31st in the league against the run (156.5 YPG) and 30th overall (388.2). To help with stopping the run, the Chiefs are mulling the idea of moving end Glenn Dorsey to nose tackle. The LB corps was a surprise last year when the Chiefs moved to a 3-4 scheme. Former end Tamba Hali came on strong as an outside linebacker and the team’s top two tacklers—Demorrio Williams and Corey Mays are back. The secondary needed some help, and got it in Eric Berry (1-Tennessee), perhaps the finest all around player available in this past draft…There’s plenty to be optimistic about in Kansas City, and the Chiefs could finish as high as second in the AFC West, but are still steps below the Chargers. Vegas Odds
  • YouWager.com Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 6.5
    StatFox Steve’s Take: I am convinced that either Kansas City or Oakland will be much-improved in 2010, and considering that the Chiefs have the 3rd weakest schedule in the NFL, it could very likely be them. Still, winning seven games would mean a 3-game improvement, somewhat significant. I see better things for 2011 or 2012 but will slightly lean OVER for this fall. Football Scores
  • For a more complete look at the 2010 college and pro football seasons, pick up your copy of our annual football magazine, the StatFox Edge, a 160-page Ultimate Handicapping Resource!

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