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CHRIS PAUL’S HORNETS ARE A DISMAL 4-14 ATS WHEN RECEIVING AT LEAST 65% OF A GAME’S BETS.
Thu, 17 Mar 2011 04:12 AM EDT

This column will examine majority betting in the NBA. We wanted to find out whether or not bettors should be siding with the general public or fading the majority and following the money. Below is our breakdown by majority percentage, and then further into home/road, point spread ranges and team-by-team records. All numbers are through Sunday, Feb. 13 and are all ATS. Games that finished as Pushes and/or games where betting was split 50/50 were not included in this study. Basketball scores.

MAJORITY BETS

First we take a look at simple majority of 51% or more of the general public in terms of Home and Road. Success of majority road teams is 4% greater than home teams. When broken out by the point spread size, most of the ranges are 45% to 52%, with heavy road favorites and heavy road underdogs both winning more than 60% of the time, albeit in smaller sample sizes.

Majority (51% or more) bets Home Team
Total: 156 wins, 178 losses (47%)

Records by Spread
Underdogs: 0-2
0 to -3: 23-28 (45%)
-3.5 to -6.5: 58-60 (49%)
-7 to -9.5: 48-55 (47%)
-10 or more: 27-33 (45%)

Majority (51% or more) bets Road Team
Total: 226 wins, 214 losses (51%)

Underdogs by Spread
+10 or more: 15-9 (63%)
+7 to +9.5: 23-26 (47%)
+3.5 to +6.5: 33-35 (49%)
+0.5 to +3: 36-27 (57%)
Total: 107-97 (52%)

Favorites/Pick by Spread
0 to -3: 51-46 (53%)
-3.5 to -6.5: 49-59 (45%)
-7 or more: 19-12 (61%)
Total: 119-117 (50%)

VAST MAJORITY BETS

Next we examine bets when at least 65% of the bets go to one team. First we take a look at Vast Majority bets of home teams. In this category, favorites of at least seven points are having a harder time covering these bets at 30-46 (39%). We also show the teams with the most notable records in this scenario, both good and bad. Six Western Conference teams make the list, while Miami is the lone East representative. Basketball odds.

Vast Majority (65% or more) bets Home Team
Total: 59 wins, 72 losses (45%)

Records by Spread
0 to -3: 4-5 (44%)
-3.5 to -6.5: 25-21 (54%)
-7 to -9.5: 17-30 (36%)
-10 or more: 13-16 (45%)

Notable team records in this scenario
L.A. Clippers 5-0 (11-14 ATS in other home games)
Golden State 7-1 (8-13 ATS in other home games)
Utah 4-1 (8-16 ATS in other home games)
L.A. Lakers 4-11 (6-6 ATS in other home games)
Miami 1-4 (8-11 ATS in other home games)
New Orleans 1-5 (12-10 ATS in other home games)
Phoenix 0-6 (12-9 ATS in other home games)
The top three teams on this list are all well below .500 ATS in home games where they do not command 65% of the betting action, combining for a 27-43 ATS mark (39%) in these other contests. The Hornets and Suns are a dismal 1-11 ATS with 65% majority on their side, but are a healthy 24-19 ATS (56%) when not picked by at least 65% of bettors.

Next we examine Vast Majority bets of road teams, and see that favorites of at least seven points are having a much easier time than home teams, covering these bets at 17-10 (63%). And when we check out the notable records, we only see two teams from the prior home list — New Orleans (bad on both) and Miami (bad home, good road) — while the East is much more prevalent here.

Vast Majority (65% or more) bets Road Team
Total: 148 wins, 136 losses (52%)

Records by Spread
Underdogs: 43-34 (56%)
0 to -3: 44-35 (56%)
-3.5 to -6.5: 44-57 (44%)
-7 or more: 17-10 (63%)

Notable team records in this scenario
Philadelphia 4-0 (14-9 ATS in other road games)
San Antonio 11-5 (7-3 ATS in other road games)
Miami 13-6 (4-5 ATS in other road games)
Atlanta 10-5 (5-7 ATS in other road games)
Dallas 10-5 (7-4 ATS in other road games)
New York 10-5 (9-2 ATS in other road games)
Oklahoma City 6-11 (7-3 ATS in other road games)
New Orleans 3-9 (11-3 ATS in other road games)
New Jersey 0-3 (11-14 ATS in other road games)
The Hornets success difference between vast majority betting and others (25% to 79%) is just astounding. Miami (68% to 44%) and Atlanta (67% to 42%) are also big differences here.

Vast Majority (65% or more) bets, Combined
Total: 207 wins, 208 losses (50%)

Best team records in this scenario (minimum 7 games)
Golden State 11-3 (79%)
L.A. Clippers 6-3 (67%)
New York 14-7 (67%)
San Antonio 12-7 (63%)
The Spurs have the 2nd-best ATS in the NBA and the Knicks are 4th, so their inclusion is expected here. But the Warriors are barely over .500 ATS at 28-25 and the Clippers having a losing ATS record of 26-27, making their appearances on this list much more significant.

Worst team records in this scenario (minimum 7 games)
New Orleans 4-14 (22%)
Phoenix 5-12 (29%)
Memphis 3-7 (30%)
Denver 8-12 (40%)
The Hornets are a .500 ATS team (27-27), but yet have the worst ATS mark in this scenario. The Grizzlies have the league’s 3rd-best ATS record (34-21, 62%), but are just 3-7 ATS with 65% majority backing. The Nuggets and Suns have the 6th and 7th worst ATS marks in the league, so they truly belong on this list.

SUPER MAJORITY BETS

Lastly, we delve into the scenario when at least 80% of the bets go to one team. The sample size is pretty small for home teams, but road teams are only winning 43% of the time here, which drops to 41% when spreads are less than seven points. The Heat (good) and Hornets (bad) predictably show up again on our team breakdown. Basketball spreads.

Super Majority (80% or more) bets Home Team
Total: 8 wins, 7 losses (53%)

Records by Spread
0 to -3: 0-0
-3.5 to -6.5: 3-2
-7 to -9.5: 3-3
-10 or more: 2-2

Super Majority (80% or more) bets Road Team
Total: 43 wins, 56 losses (43%)

Records by Spread
Underdogs: 2-3 (40%)
0 to -3: 13-16 (45%)
-3.5 to -6.5: 19-30 (39%)
-7 or more: 9-7 (56%)

Notable team records in this scenario
San Antonio 3-1
Miami 8-3
Orlando 7-4
L.A. Lakers 3-6
Oklahoma City 2-5
Utah 1-3
New Orleans 0-4


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