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Tue, 13 Jul 2010 01:52 PM EDT

We all know that Lebron James has left Cleveland for the sun & fun of South Beach, but a lot is new on the football front as well for 2010. Mike Holmgren has taken over the football operations of the Browns and made an immediate impact by acquiring Jake Delhomme as the new starter at quarterback. All this change comes to a team that won its final four games of last season outright, and its final seven against the spread. Maybe the Browns can help Cleveland fans forget about Lebron this fall. Our season preview series continues with a look at the 2010 Cleveland Browns. Scores

2009 Record:5-11 (-2.9 ML Units), 10-6 ATS
COACH:Eric Mangini, 2nd year (5-11 SU, 10-6 ATS)
STADIUM:Cleveland Stadium
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:100 to 1, AFC Title:50 to 1
StatFox Power Rating:13 (#27 of 32)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating:-8 (#27 of 32)

Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 5-11 ~ 19-29 (40%)
ATS: 10-6 ~ 28-19 (60%)
Preseason ATS: 2-2 ~ 5-7 (42%)
Home ATS: 5-3 ~ 14-9 (61%)
Road ATS: 5-3 ~ 14-10 (58%)
Division ATS: 4-2 ~ 10-8 (56%)
Conference ATS: 9-3 ~ 22-13 (63%)
Favorite ATS: 2-0 ~ 10-5 (67%)
Underdog ATS: 8-6 ~ 18-14 (56%)
Over-Under: 7-9 ~ 22-24 (48%)

2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: -8.1 (#27 of 32)
Yardage Differential: -129 (#32 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: -1.52 (#32 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: -0.38 (#18 of 32)
Turnover Differential: -12 (#29 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 260.2 (#32 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 389.2 (#31 of 32)

2010 SCHEDULE: Strength – 21.88 (2nd toughest of 32)
9/12/10 – at Tampa Bay, 1:00 PM
9/19/10 – KANSAS CITY, 1:00 PM
9/26/10 – at Baltimore, 1:00 PM
10/3/10 – CINCINNATI, 1:00 PM
10/10/10 – ATLANTA, 1:00 PM
10/17/10 – at Pittsburgh, 1:00 PM
10/24/10 – at New Orleans, 1:00 PM
11/7/10 – NEW ENGLAND, 1:00 PM
11/14/10 – NY JETS, 1:00 PM
11/21/10 – at Jacksonville, 1:00 PM
11/28/10 – CAROLINA, 1:00 PM
12/5/10 – at Miami, 1:00 PM
12/12/10 – at Buffalo, 1:00 PM
12/19/10 – at Cincinnati, 1:00 PM
12/26/10 – BALTIMORE, 1:00 PM
1/2/11 – PITTSBURGH, 1:00 PM

Sample StatFox Power Trend for 2010

  • CLEVELAND is on a 8-0 UNDER the total (+8 Units) run against NFC South division opponents The Average Score was CLEVELAND 13.4, OPPONENT 16.92010 OUTLOOK
    The writing appeared on the wall for Eric Mangini when the Browns hired Mike Holmgren as their new president, giving the win-starved organization a proven commodity to lead its front office. Surprisingly, Mangini was maintained as head coach thanks in large part to a four-game winning streak that salvaged an otherwise tumultuous 5-11 season. Holmgren has turned the page on a QB situation that grabbed plenty of negative headlines, releasing Derek Anderson and trading Brady Quinn. The Browns also let defensive leaders Kamerion Wimbley and Brodney Pool slip away. While the changes could end up being for the better, a third straight last-place finish in the AFC North will be a challenge to avoid…Cleveland ranked last in the NFL in total yards, averaging 260.2 per game, and passing yards (129.8 per game), but enjoyed some success on the ground, ranking eighth. Mangini won’t be answering QB questions this fall. Jake Delhomme starts, Seneca Wallace is the backup, and rookie Colt McCoy is the future. Rookie WR Mohamed Massaquoi showed flashes averaging 18.4 YPC, and RB James Harrison had an explosive finish (561 yards, 5 TD’s in L3 games). The group up front could be the best the Browns have fielded since returning to the league in 1999…The defensive side of the ball was a priority in trades, signings and the draft, as Holmgren did everything in his power to bolster a unit that allowed 375 points. The Browns signed LB Scott Fujita, traded for cornerback Sheldon Brown and LB Chris Gocong, and drafted cornerback Joe Haden among others…The early schedule provides the Browns with an opportunity to pick up where they left off, but a brutal four-game stretch starting in Week 6 could derail any momentum they take into October. Look for a transition year with lots of ups and downs to result in five or six wins. Odds Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 5.5
    StatFox Steve’s Take: Cleveland isn’t nearly as bad as most experts are projecting. However, reaching the 6-win mark is going to be tough going against the league’s second-most difficult schedule. The Browns have only won six or more games twice since 2002. Slight lean UNDER. NFL Betting Lines

  • For a more complete look at the 2010 college and pro football seasons, pick up your copy of our annual football magazine, the StatFox Edge, a 160-page Ultimate Handicapping Resource!

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