NEW YORK METS (11-16)
at PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (18-8)
First pitch: Sunday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Philadelphia -170, N.Y. Mets +160, Total: 7
The Mets have reverted to their losing ways of late, and things won’t get any easier when they face Cliff Lee on Sunday night.
After a miserable start to the year, New York seemed to have turned a corner with last week’s six-game winning streak. But they’ve dropped three straight since, including the first two games of their three-game set in Philly (New York has dropped four of five in Philadelphia this season). The good news is that their one win was behind Sunday’s starter, Chris Young. Baseball lines.
On April 5, Young held the Phillies to one run over 5.1 innings in a 7-1 Mets win. It wasn’t the prettiest outing though. Young allowed five hits and four walks in that start, and he’s not a great fit in Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park. Young is an extreme fly-ball pitcher who’s prone to giving up the home run, and Citizens Bank is one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the majors. Young gave up three homers in 4.2 innings in Washington on Tuesday. In his previous outing in Philadelphia, in 2009 when he was with the Padres, Young allowed seven runs (1 HR) in 3.2 innings.
The Phillies will have Cliff Lee on the mound. His ERA is a middling 4.18 through five starts this season, but it’s inflated by one disastrous outing (six runs allowed in 3.1 IP in Atlanta on April 8). In his three starts since then, he’s given up a total of seven runs (six earned) while striking out 25 with just three walks in 22 innings. Baseball betting lines.
Including postseason, Lee has made 10 starts for the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park, going 7-2 with a 2.60 ERA. Philly won eight of those games. He’s only made one career start against the Mets, holding them to two runs (both unearned) over seven innings at Citi Field in a 6-2 Phils win back in August 2009.
The Phillies have won eight of 10, and there’s no reason to think Young and the Mets will slow them down on Sunday night. I’m going with the obvious pick and taking Philadelphia. Baseball scores.
On top of that, the FoxSheets have a five-star trend that’s working against the Mets:
Play Against – Road teams (N.Y. METS) – below-average NL hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA <=3.33), with a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR’s/start. (38-5 over the last 5 seasons, 88.4%, +31.5 units. Rating = 5*).