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Mon, 19 Jul 2010 07:31 PM EDT

As the Colts embark on a season that they hope could produce a league-record 10th straight postseason berth, they are showing very few signs of slowing down. While true that they did come up short in the Super Bowl to New Orleans last February, the 2009 season was another wildly successful campaign for Indianapolis. With Peyton Manning back under center and the rest of the corps still intact, the Colts have to again be considered one of the AFC favorites this fall. Our 32 NFL teams in 32 days season preview series continues with a look at the 2010 Indianapolis Colts. NFL Odds

2009 Record:16-3 (+12 ML Units), 12-7 ATS
COACH:Jim Caldwell, 2nd year (16-3 SU, 12-7 ATS)
STADIUM:Lucas Oil Stadium
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:6 to 1, AFC Title:3 to 1
StatFox Power Rating:27 (#8 of 32)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating:+7.1 (#6 of 32)

Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 16-3 ~ 41-12 (77%)
ATS: 12-7 ~ 28-24 (54%)
Preseason ATS: 1-3 ~ 4-8 (33%)
Home ATS: 5-5 ~ 13-14 (48%)
Road ATS: 7-2 ~ 15-10 (60%)
Division ATS: 4-2 ~ 8-10 (44%)
Conference ATS: 9-5 ~ 20-19 (51%)
Favorite ATS: 11-6 ~ 22-21 (51%)
Underdog ATS: 1-1 ~ 5-3 (63%)
Over-Under: 10-9 ~ 26-27 (49%)

2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: +6.8 (#9 of 32)
Yardage Differential: +23.3 (#14 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: +0.91 (#2 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: +3.73 (#4 of 32)
Turnover Differential: +1 (#15 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 362.5 (#9 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 339.2 (#18 of 32)

2010 SCHEDULE: Strength – 20.31 (21st toughest of 32)
9/12/10 – at Houston, 1:00 PM
9/19/10 – NY GIANTS, 8:20 PM
9/26/10 – at Denver, 4:15 PM
10/3/10 – at Jacksonville, 4:05 PM
10/10/10 – KANSAS CITY, 1:00 PM
10/17/10 – at Washington, 8:20 PM
11/1/10 – HOUSTON, 8:30 PM
11/7/10 – at Philadelphia, 4:15 PM
11/14/10 – CINCINNATI, 1:00 PM
11/21/10 – at New England, 4:15 PM
11/28/10 – SAN DIEGO, 8:20 PM
12/5/10 – DALLAS, 4:15 PM
12/9/10 – at Tennessee, 8:20 PM
12/19/10 – JACKSONVILLE, 1:00 PM
12/26/10 – at Oakland, 4:05 PM
1/2/11 – TENNESSEE, 1:00 PM

Sample StatFox Power Trend for 2010

  • INDIANAPOLIS is on a 23-4 OVER the total (+18.6 Units) run on the road coming off an upset loss as a favorite The Average Score was INDIANAPOLIS 23.9, OPPONENT 28.12010 OUTLOOK
    In Jim Caldwell’s first season as head coach in Indianapolis, the Colts, despite injuries to key players on both sides of scrimmage, went to their second Super Bowl in four years and finished a decade that saw them go 115-45. It was the winningest 10-year span in NFL history and, this year, Indianapolis will try to get into the record book with a league-tying ninth straight postseason berth. Caldwell has made some changes to his staff on offense, with coordinator Clyde Christensen taking over for Tom Moore as the main play caller…QB Peyton Manning won his second-straight NFL MVP award, throwing 393 completions for 4,500 yards and a 68.8 completion rate, all team records. He also had a 33:16 TD-Int ratio. And as if Manning didn’t have enough weapons with All-Pros Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, he should have a healthy Anthony Gonzalez back at his disposal, plus youngsters Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie. Manning will once again play behind arguably the league’s best line when the ball is put in the air. If there is one knock on the offense, it’s the virtual lack of a running game. It finished last in the league in ground YPG…Had the stop unit been healthy in the Super Bowl, the Colts could well be the defending champion. Still, management thought talent needed to be added, so the top three draft picks were spent on this side of scrimmage. The key will be the health of FS Bob Sanders, who missed all but two games in 2009 with a torn biceps tendon. Draftee DE Jerry Hughes (1-TCU) will have two veteran standouts to learn from in Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis…The Colts could well get back to the Super Bowl for the third time in five years. Manning shows no signs of slowing down and the defense should improve if healthy. Another division title is likely. NFL Spreads Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 11
    StatFox Steve’s Take: The Colts boast the highest regular season wins prop in the NFL, fitting since they quite possibly could have gone 16-0 last year if they “wanted to”. With the 21st toughest schedule in the league, Indianapolis could probably win 11 games in its sleep, and the only thing that could deter them is an injury to Manning. We all know that never happens. OVER. NFL Lines

  • For a more complete look at the 2010 college and pro football seasons, pick up your copy of our annual football magazine, the StatFox Edge, a 160-page Ultimate Handicapping Resource!

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