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COMPETITIVE WEDNESDAY BASEBALL BOARD
Wed, 21 Jul 2010 04:46 PM EDT

Wednesday’s full slate of 15 games in Major League Baseball stacks up as a competitive one, with only three games showing lines of minus-160 or higher according to Bookmaker.com, and only three games with Starting Pitcher WHIP differences of .200 or more. That said, it might take a bit more work to successfully handicap today’s action, looking specifically for more subtle edges. Let’s break down the entire schedule and see if we can’t uncover some value.

(901) HOUSTON (MYERS) at (902) CHICAGO CUBS (LILLY) 2:20 PM
Line: Chicago -155, Total: 8
Starting pitcher WHIP edge: Chicago
Bullpen WHIP edge: Chicago
Offense Edge: Chicago (LARGE)
Recent Play Edge: Chicago
Overall Analysis: The Cubs bats have come alive lately, but as StatFox readers know from yesterday’s feature piece, they have struggled horribly against bad teams this season. Both pitchers have fared well in their careers versus today’s opponent, but Myers is the hotter pitcher of late. Tough laying this price today.

(903) MILWAUKEE (WOLF) at (904) PITTSBURGH (DUKE) 7:05 PM
Line: Milwaukee -125, Total: 8.5
SP WHIP Edge: Milwaukee
BP WHIP Edge: Pittsburgh
Offense Edge: Milwaukee (LARGE)
Recent Play Edge: Milwaukee
Overall Analysis: Milwaukee’s overall dominance of the Pirates in recent years (32-10 L3 years) has to be given consideration here, and the Brewers are producing a lot of runs via the long ball of late. The Pirates’ Duke has been rocked by Milwaukee in recent starts while Wolf has enjoyed a ton of success against Pittsburgh.

(905) SAN DIEGO (GARLAND) at (906) ATLANTA (HANSON) 7:10 PM
Line: Atlanta -155, Total: 8
SP WHIP Edge: San Diego
BP WHIP Edge: San Diego
Offense Edge: Atlanta
Recent Play Edge: None
Overall Analysis: One of the best games on today’s board, Atlanta and Hanson are being shown quite a bit of respect by oddsmakers. The Braves are 3-1 this season against San Diego. GARLAND is 0-2 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 14.03 and a WHIP of 2.998 in his career. While the line and home field seem to give the overall edge to Atlanta, you can discount the Padres, particularly as the dogs. Betting Lines

(907) COLORADO (HAMMEL) at (908) FLORIDA (NOLASCO) 7:10 PM
Line: Florida -115, Total: 8.5
SP WHIP Edge: Florida
BP WHIP Edge: Colorado (LARGE)
Offense Edge: Colorado
Recent Play Edge: None
Overall Analysis: The Rockies pounded the Marlins 10-0 on Tuesday to even up the current 4-game set at two games apiece. They are just 1-7 this season coming off a win by 6 runs or more. Though the Marlins are 4-3 in their L7 games, they have only batted .194 while producing 2.6 RPG during that span. Nolasco holds a significant edge historically versus opponent, with a 4-0 career won-lost mark and a WHIP of 0.967 against Colorado.  NFL Scores

(909) WASHINGTON (STRASBURG) at (910) CINCINNATI (ARROYO) 7:10 PM
Line: Washington -115, Total: 7
SP WHIP Edge: Washington
BP WHIP Edge: Washington
Offense Edge: Cincinnati (LARGE)
Recent Play Edge: Cincinnati
Overall Analysis: To show how much oddsmakers are favoring Strasburg these days, the Nationals are 15-33 on the road this season but still favored over the Reds, who are 31-20 at home. WASHINGTON is 1-10 (-10.2 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last 3 seasons. Cincy seems to be finding a groove again since returning from their recent lengthy road trip. They are 4-1 on the current homestand. Worthy underdog look.

(911) PHILADELPHIA (BLANTON) at (912) ST LOUIS (GARCIA) 8:15 PM
Line: St. Louis -145, Total: 8.5
SP WHIP Edge: St. Louis
BP WHIP Edge: St. Louis (LARGE)
Offense Edge: St. Louis
Recent Play Edge: St. Louis (LARGE)
Overall Analysis: As you can see from the edges, there isn’t a whole lot going for the Phillies in this third of a four game series versus the red-hot Cardinals. St. Louis has won seven straight games and is now 33-15 at home in 2010. Garcia has been stellar for the Cards as well, while Blanton owns an ugly 7.06 ERA on the road. With trade rumors also dogging the franchise, bet Philly at your own peril.

(913) NY METS (NIESE) at (914) ARIZONA (HAREN) 9:40 PM
Line: Arizona -120, Total: 8.5
SP WHIP Edge: Arizona
BP WHIP Edge: NY Mets (LARGE)
Offense Edge: None
Recent Play Edge: None
Overall Analysis: Arizona has taken the first two games of the 3-game series versus New York, who continues to struggle on the road. The Mets are just 19-29 this season away from Citi Field, allowing opponents to bat .290. Niese has been a good stopper for them though and has put together four solid starts in a row. After losing last night as -125 favorites, an interesting trend finds MANUEL is 23-9 (+14.7 Units) against the money line revenging a loss vs opponent as a road favorite as the manager of NY METS. Don’t be surprised to see New York salvage this one.

(915) SAN FRANCISCO (ZITO) at (916) LA DODGERS (BILLINGSLEY) 10:10 PM
Line: LA Dodgers -140, Total: 7.5
SP WHIP Edge: San Francisco
BP WHIP Edge: Los Angeles
Offense Edge: None
Recent Play Edge: San Francisco (HUGE)
Overall Analysis: San Francisco is among the hottest teams in baseball right now, having won 11 of 13 games. The Dodgers have lost six straight. Despite this and the fact that Zito is enjoying the better season over Billingsley, who has been rocked in his last two starts, the Dodgers are still somewhat heavy favorites. Strangely, the money seems to be moving towards Los Angeles. Value here is clearly on the confident Giants.

(917) TAMPA BAY (SHIELDS) at (918) BALTIMORE (BERGESEN) 12:35 PM
Line: Tampa Bay -200, Total: 9.5
SP WHIP Edge: Tampa Bay (LARGE)
BP WHIP Edge: Tampa Bay (LARGE)
Offense Edge: Tampa Bay
Recent Play Edge: None
Overall Analysis: One trend is very interesting to me in this game, BALTIMORE is 6-1 (+11.9 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season this season. After last night’s huge come from behind, extra-inning win, it figures to be tough to lay the -220 against the O’s tonight, especially with a mediocre-of-late Shields getting the ball. Better plays on the board.

(919) LA ANGELS (PINEIRO) at (920) NY YANKEES (VAZQUEZ) 1:05 PM
Line: NY Yankees -175, Total: 9.0
SP WHIP Edge: NY Yankees
BP WHIP Edge: NY Yankees (LARGE)
Offense Edge: NY Yankees (LARGE)
Recent Play Edge: None
Overall Analysis: The Angels pounded Phil Hughes last night en route to a 10-2 upset as +220 dogs. Today’s revenge spot shows a strong FoxSheets system: Play Against – Home teams (NY YANKEES) – revenging a loss where opponent scored 10 or more runs, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games. (33-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.3%, +31 units. Rating = 4*). Early money seems to be landing with New York, but everything else I look at indicates a slight over-pricing here.

(921) CLEVELAND (WESTBROOK) at (922) MINNESOTA (LIRIANO) 1:10 PM
Line: Minnesota -220, Total: 8
SP WHIP Edge: Minnesota
BP WHIP Edge: Minnesota (LARGE)
Offense Edge: Minnesota (LARGE)
Recent Play Edge: Cleveland
Overall Analysis: Minnesota hasn’t been this large of a favorite since May 8th. The difference here and then is that the Twins were playing far better baseball at that point in the season. They are just 9-16 in their L25 games now including back-to-back losses in this series in which they have yielded 30 hits to the Indians. Cleveland has won six games in a row and is playing as good as it has all year. Liriano and the hosts simply aren’t worthy of this price today. NFL Lines

(923) TORONTO (RZEPCZYNSKI) at (924) KANSAS CITY (GREINKE) 2:10 PM
Line: Kansas City -155, Total: 8.5
SP WHIP Edge: Kansas City (LARGE)
BP WHIP Edge: Toronto
Offense Edge: None
Recent Play Edge: Toronto (LARGE)
Overall Analysis: Greinke opened as an exorbitant -170 favorite only to be bet down to -155 since. While he has pitched well of late, he certainly hasn’t commanded this type of price. Considering that the Jays have been getting it going of late with a 7-3 mark in their L10 games, including a 13-1 win last night, I’d be leery of laying the chalk here with the Royals. Good underdog spot.

(925) BOSTON (BUCHHOLZ) at (926) OAKLAND (GONZALEZ) 3:35 PM
Line: Boston -115, Total: 8
SP WHIP Edge: Boston
BP WHIP Edge: Boston
Offense Edge: None at this point
Recent Play Edge: Oakland
Overall Analysis: Boston and Oakland have split the first two games of their 3-game set, with each contest being decided by a run. Tonight’s pitching matchup is a good one, with Buchholz getting the slight edge if only for his recent prowess. At -120, the StatFox Game Estimator and Power Ratings indicate that this game is underpriced for Boston by at least 25 cents, but savvy bettors have to give consideration to the bats missing from the Red Sox lineup.

(927) TEXAS (LEWIS) at (928) DETROIT (SCHERZER) 7:05 PM
Line: Detroit -105, Total: 9
SP WHIP Edge: Texas (LARGE)
BP WHIP Edge: Texas
Offense Edge: Texas
Recent Play Edge: Texas
Overall Analysis: What in the world is going on with the Tigers? Seven straight losses coming off a lengthy stretch in which they had gone 18-8. Pitching has been a huge problem in this current skid, as they have allowed opponents to score 6.1 RPG while hitting .294. Making matters worse today is that Detroit will be facing the Rangers’ Colby Lewis, who boasts an impressive 1.115 WHIP on the season and has had incredible command, striking out 112 hitters in just shy of 116 innings. Despite the fact that the two wins this week broke a 9-game losing streak in Detroit, you have to like the Rangers’ chances at a sweep.

(929) CHI WHITE SOX (FLOYD) at (930) SEATTLE (HERNANDEZ) 10:10 PM
Line: Seattle -135, Total: 6.5
SP WHIP Edge: Seattle
BP WHIP Edge: Chicago
Offense Edge: Chicago (LARGE)
Recent Play Edge: Chicago (HUGE)
Overall Analysis: Seattle is on an extended stretch of awful play, with just a 3-14 mark in its L17 games. I can NEVER advocate backing a team like that in the role of favorite, even if its ace starting pitcher is on the hill. The White Sox have surged to the top of the Central Division and wins over the last two nights have them in the position to sweep here. I’d honestly be surprised if they don’t.


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NFLPatriots vs Seahawks3:30 PM PST
Bolivia - Liga Profesional BolivianaBLOOMING vs. SJ ORURO3:30 PM PST
Intl Youth - U20 ConmebolURUGUAY vs. PARAGUAY4:10 PM PST
02/02/2015
Israel - Premier LeagueH RAANANA vs. ASHDOD09:00 AM PST
Mexico - PrimeraDEP TOLUCA vs. U DE GUAD10:00 AM PST
Israel - Premier LeagueM TEL AVIV vs. H TEL AVIV10:55 AM PST
Bolivia - Liga Profesional BolivianaSPORT BOYS vs. P DE YACUIBA11:30 AM PST
France - Ligue 2LE HAVRE vs. VALENCIENNES11:30 AM PST
Spain - La LigaMALAGA vs. VALENCIA11:45 AM PST
02/03/2015
Holland - EredivisieGO A EAGLES vs. EXCELSIOR09:30 AM PST
Germany - BundesligaB MÃœNCHEN vs. SCHALKE11:00 AM PST
Germany - BundesligaB MÖNCHENGLADBACH vs. FREIBURG11:00 AM PST
Germany - BundesligaHANNOVER vs. MAINZ11:00 AM PST
Germany - BundesligaE FRANKFURT vs. WOLFSBURG11:00 AM PST
England - Conference PremierDOVER ATH vs. GRIMSBY11:45 AM PST
England - Conference PremierALFRETON vs. LINCOLN11:45 AM PST
England - Conference PremierTELFORD UTD vs. GATESHEAD11:45 AM PST
England - Conference PremierWREXHAM vs. FOREST GREEN11:45 AM PST
England - FA CupMAN UTD vs. CAMBRIDGE11:45 AM PST
Holland - EredivisieNAC BREDA vs. PSV11:45 AM PST
Italy - Coppa ItaliaROMA vs. FIORENTINA11:45 AM PST
Brazil - Paulista, Serie A1SAO BERNARDO vs. PIRACICABA1:30 PM PST
Brazil - Paulista, Serie A1BOTAFOGO vs. AUDAX1:30 PM PST
Chile - PrimeraU DE CHILE vs. DEP IQUIQUE2:30 PM PST
Intl Clubs - Copa LibertadoresALIANZA LIMA vs. HURACAN4:15 PM PST
Chile - PrimeraATH BARNECHEA vs. U DE CONCEPCION5:00 PM PST
Mexico - Copa MXQUERETARO vs. ZACATECAS5:00 PM PST
Mexico - Copa MXVERACRUZ vs. CORRECAMINOS5:00 PM PST
Mexico - Copa MXTOLUCA vs. ATLANTE5:00 PM PST
Intl Clubs - Copa LibertadoresMORELIA vs. STRONGEST6:30 PM PST
Mexico - Copa MXPUEBLA vs. MERIDA7:00 PM PST
Mexico - Copa MXEST DE ALTAMIRA vs. MONTERREY7:00 PM PST
Mexico - Copa MXGUAD CHIVAS vs. LOBOS B.U.A.P.7:00 PM PST
02/04/2015
Greece - Super LeagueAOK KERKYRA vs. LEVADIAKOS05:00 AM PST
Greece - Super LeaguePANAITOLIKOS vs. ERGOTELIS05:00 AM PST
Greece - Super LeagueS XANTHI vs. PANIONIOS07:15 AM PST
Greece - Super LeagueA TRIPOLIS vs. PLATANIAS07:15 AM PST
Greece - Super LeagueOFI KRETA vs. P THESSALONIKI07:15 AM PST
Greece - Super LeagueGIANNINA vs. VEROIA07:15 AM PST
Greece - Super LeagueO PIRAEUS vs. ATROMITOS09:30 AM PST
Holland - EredivisieHEERENVEEN vs. FEYENOORD09:30 AM PST
Holland - EredivisieA DEN HAAG vs. TWENTE09:30 AM PST
Holland - EredivisiePEC ZWOLLE vs. DORDRECHT10:45 AM PST
Brazil - Carioca, Serie ANOVA IGUACU vs. FLUMINENSE11:00 AM PST
Brazil - Paulista, Serie A1ITUANO vs. BRAGANTINO11:00 AM PST
Brazil - Paulista, Serie A1PORTUGUESA vs. SAO BENTO11:00 AM PST
Chile - PrimeraU ESPANOLA vs. COLO COLO11:00 AM PST
Chile - PrimeraCOBRESAL vs. AUDAX11:00 AM PST
Germany - BundesligaB DORTMUND vs. AUGSBURG11:00 AM PST
Germany - BundesligaHOFFENHEIM vs. W BREMEN11:00 AM PST
Germany - BundesligaHERTHA vs. B LEVERKUSEN11:00 AM PST
Germany - BundesligaKÖLN vs. STUTTGART11:00 AM PST
Germany - BundesligaPADERBORN vs. HAMBURGER11:00 AM PST
England - FA CupBOLTON vs. LIVERPOOL11:45 AM PST
Holland - EredivisieC LEEUWARDEN vs. VITESSE11:45 AM PST
Holland - EredivisieWILLEM II vs. UTRECHT11:45 AM PST
Italy - Coppa ItaliaNAPOLI vs. INTER11:45 AM PST
Spain - La LigaR MADRID vs. SEVILLA11:45 AM PST
Intl Youth - U20 ConmebolPERU vs. BRAZIL11:50 AM PST
Chile - PrimeraSANTIAGO WAND vs. DEP U CATOLICA1:15 PM PST
Brazil - Carioca, Serie AV REDONDA vs. BOTAFOGO1:30 PM PST
Brazil - Paulista, Serie A1SAO PAULO vs. CAPIVARIANO1:30 PM PST
Brazil - Paulista, Serie A1RB BRASIL vs. ATL PENAPOLENSE1:30 PM PST
Brazil - Paulista, Serie A1MARILIA vs. RIO CLARO1:30 PM PST
Intl Youth - U20 ConmebolARGENTINA vs. PARAGUAY2:00 PM PST
Chile - PrimeraCOBRELOA vs. O'HIGGINS3:30 PM PST
Brazil - Carioca, Serie AFLAMENGO vs. BARRA MANSA4:00 PM PST
Brazil - Paulista, Serie A1MOGI MIRIM vs. SANTOS4:00 PM PST
Intl Clubs - Copa LibertadoresCORINTHIANS vs. ONCE CALDAS4:00 PM PST
Intl Youth - U20 ConmebolURUGUAY vs. COLOMBIA4:10 PM PST
Mexico - Copa MXU DE GUAD vs. NECAXA5:00 PM PST
Mexico - Copa MXJAGUARES vs. ZACATEPEC5:00 PM PST
Intl Clubs - Copa LibertadoresDEP TACHIRA vs. CERRO PORTENO6:15 PM PST
Mexico - Copa MXALEBRIJES vs. UNAM PUMAS7:00 PM PST
Mexico - Copa MXIRAPUATO vs. D DE SINALOA7:00 PM PST
02/14/2015
Poland - EkstraklasaC KRAKOW vs. S WROCLAW09:00 AM PST
Poland - EkstraklasaBELCHATOW vs. POD BIELSKO B09:00 AM PST
Poland - EkstraklasaG ZABRZE vs. K KIELCE09:00 AM PST
Poland - EkstraklasaL GDANSK vs. W KRAKOW09:00 AM PST
Poland - EkstraklasaL WARSZAWA vs. JAG BIALYSTOK09:00 AM PST
Poland - EkstraklasaP SZCZECIN vs. L POZNAN09:00 AM PST
Poland - EkstraklasaR CHORZOW vs. P GLIWICE09:00 AM PST
Poland - EkstraklasaZ BYDGOSZCZ vs. G LECZNA09:00 AM PST
03/03/2015
Germany - DFB PokalB LEVERKUSEN vs. KAISERSLAUTERN10:00 AM PST
Germany - DFB PokalOFFENBACHER vs. B MÖNCHENGLADBACH10:00 AM PST
Germany - DFB PokalB MÃœNCHEN vs. E BRAUNSCHWEIG10:00 AM PST
Germany - DFB PokalAALEN vs. HOFFENHEIM10:00 AM PST
Germany - DFB PokalLEIPZIG vs. WOLFSBURG10:00 AM PST
Germany - DFB PokalARMINIA B vs. W BREMEN10:00 AM PST
Germany - DFB PokalFREIBURG vs. KÖLN10:00 AM PST
Germany - DFB PokalD DRESDEN vs. B DORTMUND10:00 AM PST

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