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Wed, 14 Jul 2010 02:20 PM EDT

The Dallas Cowboys got a huge monkey off their back in January, winning their first postseason game in nearly 15 years. Most talking heads around the NFL think that might be just what it took to reach the next level this season, as Dallas is one of the favorites to represent the NFC at the 2011 Super Bowl in, ironically, Dallas. Let’s take a look at their chances as our 32 NFL teams in 32 days season preview series continues with a look at the 2010 Dallas Cowboys. Football Scores

2009 Record:12-6 (+5.4 ML Units), 10-8 ATS
COACH:Wade Phillips, 4th year (34-17 SU, 26-25 ATS)
STADIUM:Dallas Cowboys Stadium
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:10 to 1, NFC Title:4.5 to 1
StatFox Power Rating:28 (#6 of 32)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating:+5.9 (#8 of 32)

Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 12-6 ~ 34-17 (67%)
ATS: 10-8 ~ 26-25 (51%)
Preseason ATS: 2-2 ~ 5-7 (42%)
Home ATS: 6-3 ~ 15-11 (58%)
Road ATS: 4-5 ~ 11-14 (44%)
Division ATS: 4-3 ~ 9-11 (45%)
Conference ATS: 9-5 ~ 22-17 (56%)
Favorite ATS: 8-7 ~ 23-19 (55%)
Underdog ATS: 2-1 ~ 3-6 (33%)
Over-Under: 7-11 ~ 26-25 (51%)

2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: +7.7 (#6 of 32)
Yardage Differential: +83.0 (#2 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: +1.02 (#1 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: +3.23 (#6 of 32)
Turnover Differential: +2 (#13 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 400.9 (#2 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 317.9 (#10 of 32)

2010 SCHEDULE: Strength – 21.13 (10th toughest of 32)
9/12/10 – at Washington, 8:20 PM
9/19/10 – CHICAGO, 1:00 PM
9/26/10 – at Houston, 1:00 PM
10/10/10 – TENNESSEE, 4:15 PM
10/17/10 – at Minnesota, 4:15 PM
10/25/10 – NY GIANTS, 8:30 PM
10/31/10 – JACKSONVILLE, 1:00 PM
11/7/10 – at Green Bay, 8:20 PM
11/14/10 – at NY Giants, 4:15 PM
11/21/10 – DETROIT, 1:00 PM
11/25/10 – NEW ORLEANS, 4:15 PM
12/5/10 – at Indianapolis, 4:15 PM
12/12/10 – PHILADELPHIA, 8:20 PM
12/19/10 – WASHINGTON, 1:00 PM
12/25/10 – at Arizona, 7:30 PM
1/2/11 – at Philadelphia, 1:00 PM

Sample StatFox Power Trend for 2010

  • DALLAS is on a 3-20 ATS (-19 Units) skid on the road after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games The Average Score was DALLAS 17, OPPONENT 19.12010 OUTLOOK
    By Jerry Jones’ standards, it was a quiet offseason for the Cowboys and one can only assume one thing—Jones feels his franchise is built to become the first team to play in the Super Bowl it is hosting…QB Tony Romo fell apart against the Vikings’ pressure in the playoff loss, but one poor showing shouldn’t overshadow what was a banner year. On top of career-highs in passes attempted (550) and yards (4,483), Romo tossed a career-low nine interceptions. More importantly, he knocked the so-called gorilla off his back by beating Philadelphia in the wildcard playoff. The offensive outlook is indeed better with the arrival of WR Dez Bryant, who has wowed team representatives. The Cowboys have so many other weapons for defenses to account for already, inlcluding WR Miles Austin, off a breakout season, and TE Jason Witten, Romo’s favorite pass catcher. Don’t forget about WR Roy Wlliams, plus RB’s Marion Barber and Felix Jones as well. The line didn’t lose much with the release of tackle Flozell Adams, and promises to be strong…The stop unit doesn’t generate the headlines, but it is hard to overlook a unit that ranked fourth against the run (90.5 YPG) and ninth in total defense, and returns almost entirely intact. Consecutive shutouts over NFC East rivals in Weeks 16 and 17 also help raise its profile. The meat of the defense is the linebackers. Few teams can match the all-around play of the group as a whole. If there is any weakness, the secondary was exposed in the playoff loss…The strong play down the stretch bought the Wade Phillips regime one more season, but anything less than two steps forward will likely have him pounding the unemployment line. That said, the offense looks even better and the defense can hold up its end of the bargain. It’s Super Bowl or bust for the Cowboys. NFL Lines Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 9.5
    StatFox Steve’s Take: As tough as the NFC East may look on paper, I personally believe that Dallas is the only team without any legitimate question marks headed into 2010. I love the fact that the Cowboys won down the stretch last season too, an important change for the franchise. I’m looking at 11 wins or more. OVER. Vegas Odds

  • For a more complete look at the 2010 college and pro football seasons, pick up your copy of our annual football magazine, the StatFox Edge, a 160-page Ultimate Handicapping Resource!

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