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DAVID PRICE IS 21-11 WITH A CAREER 2.72 ERA AT HOME.
Tue, 23 Aug 2011 05:52 PM EDT

DETROIT TIGERS (69-58, +3.8 Units)

at TAMPA BAY RAYS (69-57, +4.8 Units)

First pitch: Tuesday, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Tampa Bay -190, Detroit +180, Total: 8

The Detroit Tigers look for their fifth straight win Tuesday night when they face Tampa Bay with their ace on the mound. Tampa Bay was riding their own five-game win streak until Justin Verlander and the Tigers broke it with a 5-2 win Monday night. Baseball odds.

Brad Penny (8-9, 4.97 ERA) and his hefty ERA will get the start on Tuesday night. Detroit has lost four out of Penny’s past five starts and Penny himself is 1-3 with a whopping 6.99 ERA over those five games. Pitching for the Rays will be a hot David Price (11-10, 3.59 ERA) who has beaten both the Yankees and Red Sox in his past two starts. He allowed only one run and nine hits in 16 innings against the AL East powers. The Rays may be a losing bet at home this year (-4.6 Units), but they have been incredible as a home favorite of -150 to -200, going 94-37 (+29.8 Units) under Joe Maddon. Although -190 is a very steep price, with the way Price is pitching compared to the struggles of Penny, TAMPA BAY is the pick here.

The FoxSheets provide another trend fading the Tigers.

Play Against – Any team (DETROIT) – hot hitting team – batting .315 or better over their last 10 games, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 10 games. (72-46 over the last 5 seasons.) (61%, +34.9 units. Rating = 2*). Baseball spreads.

After winning four in a row and eight of 11, the Tigers have opened up a 5 ½-game lead in the AL Central. Penny has been shelled away from home this year, carrying a 6.40 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in 10 road starts. He’s also struggled against the Rays in the past, going 1-4 with a 6.14 ERA in his past five starts against Tampa, but hasn’t faced them since 2009. With Penny on the mound, the Tigers need their bullpen to keep up their dominance. Despite ranking 26th in the majors in bullpen ERA this year (4.26), Detroit relievers have a stellar 1.74 ERA over the past 17 games.

The Rays will play their eighth game of a 20-game-in-20-day span, so it helps when the starters eat up innings. Price has done just that, ranking ninth in the AL in innings pitched, and throwing at least six frames in 21 of 26 starts. Price is usually a great bet at home, going 21-11 with a 2.72 ERA in his career at Tropicana Field. He has also stymied Detroit in his young career, going 3-0 with a 2.11 ERA and 25 K in 21.1 IP spanning five appearances (three starts). Baseball lines.


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