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HIGH-OCTANE HOUSTON THE CLASS OF C-USA FOOTBALL
Wed, 11 Aug 2010 01:24 PM EDT

Conference USA has become widely known for its offensive prowess, or perhaps rather, its defensive ineptitude. There figures to be much of the same in 2010 as quite possibly the country’s best offense resides in this league, that of Kevin Sumlin and Houston. The Cougars, led by Heisman Trophy candidate Case Keenum will be tough to stop, albeit by their regular C-USA foes, or by two of its bigger non-conference opponents, UCLA and Texas Tech. There is a good chance that they could go unbeaten if the defense can shoulder more of its share of the load this season. In any case, they will be fun to watch and are the overwhelming favorite to take the title in this league, which could be down for 2010. In the East Division, two-time defending champion East Carolina is beginning anew under Ruffin McNeil, minus many major contributors. UCF is being recognized as the new favorite to represent that division in the league title game in December. Marshall can’t be overlooked though and Southern Miss is usually a threat as well. In the West, should Houston slip up, the top challengers will be SMU and to a lesser degree, Tulsa and UTEP. Other than at Houston and Tulsa, many of the real big offensive names from the last few years have left this conference, could this be the year that the defenses finally gain some ground? Scores

2010 Predicted Finish

EAST DIVISION
1. UCF
2. Marshall
3. Southern Miss
4. UAB
5. East Carolina
6. Memphis

WEST DIVISION
1. Houston
2. SMU
3. Tulsa
4. UTEP
5. Rice
6. Tulane

EAST DIVISION

E CAROLINA PIRATES
Head Coach: Ruffin McNeill, 1st year (0-0 SU)
2009 Record: 9-5 SU, 7-6 ATS
Offense: Spread – Starters Returning: 5
Defense: 4-3 – Starters Returning: 2

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +5.1 (#45 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +6.1 (#39 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 38 (#58 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/5 – TULSA
9/11 – MEMPHIS
9/18 – at Virginia Tech
10/2 – at N Carolina
10/9 – at Southern Miss
10/16 – NC STATE
10/23 – MARSHALL
10/30 – at UCF
11/6 – NAVY
11/11 – at UAB
11/20 – at Rice
11/26 – SMU

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 9-5, 26-15 (63%)
Overall ATS: 7-6, 20-20 (50%)
at Home ATS: 3-3, 9-8 (53%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 4-3, 11-12 (48%)
vs Conference ATS: 6-3, 15-11 (58%)
as Favorite ATS: 4-3, 9-14 (39%)
as Underdog ATS: 3-3, 11-6 (65%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 32.57 (72)
Points Scored – Allowed: 27.0 (62) – 21.9 (36)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 369.4 (67) – 378.3 (72)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 5.27 (77) – 5.38 (57)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 4.02 (70) – 3.75 (45)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 6.73 (87) – 6.75 (44)
Turnover Differential: +0.8 (9)

2010 OUTLOOK
After leading East Carolina to back-to-back victories in the Conference USA Championship Game, coach Skip Holtz ended his five-year tenure by moving on to South Florida. Replacing Holtz is Ruffin McNeill, who for the past 10 years has been at Texas Tech, serving as defensive coordinator the last two seasons. McNeill has his work cut out, having to replace 28 seniors, including nine who were starters on defense…East Carolina will be switching from the multiple offense it ran under Holtz to a spread attack that new coordinator Lincoln Riley was familiar with at Texas Tech, with Riley having served as a receivers coach. The Pirates ranked just eighth in total offense in C-USA, averaging 369.4 YPG. Replacing multi-year starter Patrick Pinkney at quarterback is sophomore walk-on Brad Wornick, who didn’t see any game action in 2009. The most starting experience on the offense returns in the interior line, with a trio of senior starters…The defensive unit has been a key factor in the Pirates winning 18 games and a pair of C-USA titles over the past two seasons. In 2009, the Pirates led C-USA in scoring defense for the second straight year (21.9 PPG) and were third in total defense (378.3 YPG). The early part of the campaign could be bumpy, however, with McNeill switching from a multiple to a 4-3 alignment while finding nine new starters…A third straight C-USA championship isn’t in the cards for the Pirates, as they break in a new head coach and coaching staff and new systems on both offense and defense. How quickly the passing game and the inexperienced defense come together will determine if the Pirates can somehow snare another bowl bid.

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* E CAROLINA is on a 18-4 ATS (+13.6 Units) run as road underdogs of 7 points or less . The Average Score was E CAROLINA 24.8, OPPONENT 23.6

MARSHALL THUNDERING HERD
Head Coach: John Holliday, 1st year (First Year SU)
2009 Record: 7-6 SU, 7-5 ATS
Offense: Multiple – Starters Returning: 7
Defense: 4-3 – Starters Returning: 7

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -2.5 (#80 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -2.7 (#78 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 27 (#91 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/2 – at Ohio St
9/10 – W VIRGINIA
9/18 – at Bowling Green
9/25 – OHIO U
10/2 – at Southern Miss
10/13 – UCF
10/23 – at E Carolina
10/30 – UTEP
11/6 – at UAB
11/13 – MEMPHIS
11/20 – at SMU
11/27 – TULANE

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 7-6, 14-23 (38%)
Overall ATS: 7-5, 16-18 (47%)
at Home ATS: 2-3, 7-8 (47%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 5-2, 9-10 (47%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-4, 12-12 (50%)
as Favorite ATS: 2-1, 3-5 (38%)
as Underdog ATS: 5-4, 13-13 (50%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 30.23 (86)
Points Scored – Allowed: 21.8 (96) – 24.3 (54)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 349.1 (81) – 371.8 (66)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 5.19 (84) – 5.71 (80)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 3.94 (72) – 4.33 (83)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 6.64 (92) – 6.97 (54)
Turnover Differential: -0.3 (81)

2010 OUTLOOK
Marshall ended its string of four straight losing seasons under head coach Mark Snyder by going 6-6, but he resigned at the end of the regular season. The Thundering Herd finished on a high note, however, posting the school’s first bowl victory since 2002 by defeating Ohio, 21-17, in Detroit. Doc Holliday, the associate head coach at West Virginia the past two years and a 31-year sideline veteran, is the new head coach…Marshall continued to have its trouble on offense, going through a six-game stretch where it scored 17 points or fewer. The Thundering Herd were ninth in Conference USA in total offense (349.1 YPG) and 10th in scoring offense (21.8 PPG). As was the case in 2008, the running game proved to be more successful for the Herd, as they were fourth in rushing (142.7 yards per game) and just 10th in passing (206.4). However, leading rusher Darius Marshall declared early for the NFL Draft. Senior Brian Anderson, who started every game last season, is expected to retain his hold on the starting quarterback spot…Marshall’s stop unit fared much better on C-USA’s stat charts than did the offense, as the Herd were second in the conference in total defense, allowing 371.8 YPG, and third overall in scoring defense, giving up 24.3 PPG. The standout among the unit’s seven returning starters is junior linebacker Mario Harvey…Holliday has made numerous coaching stops is known as a skilled recruiter. He inherits a team that finally pushed over the .500 mark after a long dry spell, and one that has its sights set on returning to another bowl game. Expect Holliday to help Marshall continue its climb up the ladder in C-USA.

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* MARSHALL is on a 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) skid on the road coming off a non-conference game . The Average Score was MARSHALL 23, OPPONENT 26.3

MEMPHIS TIGERS
Head Coach: Larry Porter, 1st year (First Year SU)
2009 Record: 2-10 SU, 3-9 ATS
Offense: Multiple – Starters Returning: 7
Defense: Multiple – Starters Returning: 7

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -13.0 (#111 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -11.4 (#110 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 22 (#101 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 – at Mississippi St
9/11 – at E Carolina
9/18 – MIDDLE TENN ST
9/25 – at UTEP
10/2 – TULSA
10/9 – at Louisville
10/16 – SOUTHERN MISS
10/30 – HOUSTON
11/6 – TENNESSEE
11/13 – at Marshall
11/20 – at UAB
11/27 – UCF

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 2-10, 15-23 (39%)
Overall ATS: 3-9, 15-20 (43%)
at Home ATS: 2-4, 8-10 (44%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 1-5, 7-10 (41%)
vs Conference ATS: 2-6, 11-12 (48%)
as Favorite ATS: 0-1, 4-5 (44%)
as Underdog ATS: 2-8, 10-15 (40%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 33.42 (69)
Points Scored – Allowed: 21.8 (95) – 34.8 (110)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 374.3 (63) – 457.5 (116)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 5.35 (72) – 6.43 (109)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 4.39 (52) – 4.43 (90)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 6.38 (99) – 8.90 (116)
Turnover Differential: -0.8 (107)

2010 OUTLOOK
Larry Porter, who spent four years as a running back for Memphis in the early 1990s, has returned as the Tigers’ new head coach. Porter has spent the last five years at LSU, overseeing the running backs while also serving as assistant head coach and chief recruiter. He is replacing Tommy West, who did lead the Tigers to a pair of bowl wins during his nine years, but who was just 49-61 overall and 2-10 in 2009…The offense was all but gutted by the departure of several skill position players, including the top two receivers, the leading rusher and the starting quarterback. With those players in the lineup the Tigers were seventh in Conference USA in total offense (374.3 YPG) and ninth in scoring (21.8 PPG). Redshirt sophomore Tyler Bass is the most experienced quarterback returnee but will be pushed. The strength of the offense will no doubt be the line, where all five starters return… The Tigers gave up 249 points during a season-closing six-game losing streak, and that stretch sunk Memphis down to 11th in C-USA in total defense (457.5 YPG) and 10th in scoring defense (34.8 PPG). If the Tigers hope to avoid double digits in losses again those numbers will have to show a significant improvement. Seven starters are back…The Tigers have finished below the .500 mark in three of the past four seasons, and with a first-time head coach at the helm, and the loss of several key skill position players from the offensive unit, another difficult campaign is looming for Memphis. The odds appear too steep for the Tigers to be able to win more than three or four games.

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* MEMPHIS is on a 10-0 ATS (+10 Units) run at home vs. teams scoring 31 or more PPG . The Average Score was MEMPHIS 26.6, OPPONENT 27.7

SOUTHERN MISS GOLDEN EAGLES
Head Coach: Larry Fedora, 3rd year (14-12 SU)
2009 Record: 7-6 SU, 6-6 ATS
Offense: Spread – Starters Returning: 4
Defense: 4-3 – Starters Returning: 9

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +7.1 (#35 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +1.4 (#63 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 36 (#62 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/2 – at S Carolina
9/11 – PRAIRIE VIEW
9/17 – KANSAS
9/25 – at Louisiana Tech
10/2 – MARSHALL
10/9 – E CAROLINA
10/16 – at Memphis
10/30 – UAB
11/6 – at Tulane
11/13 – at UCF
11/20 – HOUSTON
11/26 – at Tulsa

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 7-6, 21-18 (54%)
Overall ATS: 6-6, 20-17 (54%)
at Home ATS: 3-2, 7-9 (44%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-4, 13-8 (62%)
vs Conference ATS: 5-3, 14-10 (58%)
as Favorite ATS: 4-5, 14-12 (54%)
as Underdog ATS: 2-1, 6-5 (55%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 29.15 (99)
Points Scored – Allowed: 32.9 (18) – 25.8 (62)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 418.3 (30) – 392.5 (81)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 6.02 (29) – 5.38 (56)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 4.66 (30) – 3.64 (37)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 7.77 (30) – 7.07 (57)
Turnover Differential: +0.8 (10)

2010 OUTLOOK
Southern Miss wrapped up a 16th straight winning season in ‘09, but the Golden Eagles didn’t finish up the campaign the way they were hoping, losing their C-USA finale at East Carolina and then dropping a 42-32 decision to Middle Tennessee in the New Orleans Bowl, the school’s eighth consecutive bowl trip. Head coach Larry Fedora has put together back-to-back 7-6 campaigns, but with just four starters back on offense, producing a school record-tying 17th straight winning season could be a tough task…For the second consecutive season the Golden Eagles showcased a very effective run-pass balance, winding up second in C-USA in rushing (183.3 YPG) and fifth in passing (235.0). They placed fourth in total offense (418.3) and second in scoring (32.9 PPG). Offensive questions abound with a potential shared quarterback situation between Austin Davis and Martevious Young, as well as the departure of RB Damion Fletcher. The team’s leading receiver, junior DeAndre Brown does return. The loss of starting personnel on the line is not encouraging either, with only the center returning for action… A veteran defensive unit helped the Golden Eagles place fourth in conference in both scoring (25.8 PPG) and total defense (392.5 YPG). The good news is that the losses aren’t nearly as severe, and in fact nine starters return to the stop unit. The foundation of the defense will be at linebacker, with all four starters returning…Southern Miss usually has one of the better defensive units in the conference, and this year will prove no exception. But with the loss of so many productive players on offense, it may take a while for the Golden Eagles to recover.

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* SOUTHERN MISS is on a 23-7 ATS (+15.3 Units) run on the road in the first month of the season . The Average Score was SOUTHERN MISS 17.8, OPPONENT 21.5

UAB BLAZERS
Head Coach: Neil Callaway, 4th year (11-25 SU)
2009 Record: 5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS
Offense: Multiple – Starters Returning: 8
Defense: 4-3 – Starters Returning: 9

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -4.6 (#87 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -6.1 (#90 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 30 (#85 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 – FLA ATLANTIC
9/11 – at SMU
9/18 – TROY
9/25 – at Tennessee
10/6 – at UCF
10/16 – UTEP
10/23 – at Mississippi St
10/30 – at Southern Miss
11/6 – MARSHALL
11/11 – E CAROLINA
11/20 – MEMPHIS
11/27 – at Rice

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 5-7, 11-25 (31%)
Overall ATS: 5-7, 17-16 (52%)
at Home ATS: 3-2, 7-5 (58%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 2-5, 10-11 (48%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-4, 12-11 (52%)
as Favorite ATS: 3-1, 4-1 (80%)
as Underdog ATS: 2-6, 13-15 (46%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 31.67 (79)
Points Scored – Allowed: 27.8 (59) – 32.3 (102)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 425.9 (22) – 453.3 (113)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 6.78 (6) – 6.36 (105)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 5.96 (2) – 4.19 (75)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 8.08 (20) – 8.35 (112)
Turnover Differential: +0.8 (12)

2010 OUTLOOK
Tough late season matchups with East Carolina and Central Florida left UAB shy of a winning season for the first time since ’04. However, this is head coach Neil Callaway’s fourth season at the school and he has improved the program each year. With 17 starters returning a winning season may be within reach…Led by the arm and legs of multi-talented quarterback Joe Webb, the Conference USA Offensive Player of the Year, the Blazers’ attack was ranked third in Conference USA, averaging 425.9 yards per game. UAB was sixth in scoring (27.8 PPG) and had C-USA’s best rushing attack, averaging just a shade under 230 YPG. Webb has departed, leaving a huge hole in the UAB offense, considering he passed for 2,229 yards and 21 touchdowns and was the team leader in rushing with 1,427 yards and 11 touchdowns. That kind of production is tough to replace but sophomore David Isabelle is looking to take over the quarterback job. UAB is well stocked with returning talent in the receiving corps, and four veteran starters return to the line…Giving up 71 points over the final two games ended any hopes of a bowl bid for the Blazers. Nine starters return to the field for a unit that was eighth in C-USA in scoring defense (32.3 PPG) and 10th in total defense (453.3 YPG). The pass defense was particularly weak…Webb was the offense, so without him in the lineup, the pressure will be on the other returning offensive players to step it up. A winning season will ride on Isabelle’s play and an improved defensive effort.

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* UAB is on a 7-12 ATS slide as a underdog of a touchdown or more. The Average Score was UAB 18.5, OPPONENT 41.1

UCF GOLDEN KNIGHTS
Head Coach: George O’Leary, 5th year (34-41 SU)
2009 Record: 8-5 SU, 9-3 ATS
Offense: Multiple – Starters Returning: 8
Defense: 4-3 – Starters Returning: 7

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +3.6 (#50 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +3.4 (#54 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 35 (#66 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 – S DAKOTA
9/11 – NC STATE
9/18 – at Buffalo
9/25 – at Kansas St
10/6 – UAB
10/13 – at Marshall
10/23 – RICE
10/30 – E CAROLINA
11/5 – at Houston
11/13 – SOUTHERN MISS
11/20 – at Tulane
11/27 – at Memphis

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 8-5, 22-17 (56%)
Overall ATS: 9-3, 23-14 (62%)
at Home ATS: 4-2, 12-6 (67%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 5-1, 11-8 (58%)
vs Conference ATS: 7-1, 17-8 (68%)
as Favorite ATS: 5-1, 11-8 (58%)
as Underdog ATS: 4-2, 12-6 (67%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 31.23 (80)
Points Scored – Allowed: 26.2 (67) – 22.5 (42)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 340.8 (87) – 352.5 (49)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 5.16 (88) – 5.26 (51)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 3.54 (99) – 2.66 (3)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 7.21 (57) – 7.62 (89)
Turnover Differential: +0.6 (17)

2010 OUTLOOK
There are two things that Central Florida has been unable to accomplish in George O’Leary’s six years as head coach—put together back-to-back winning seasons and win a bowl game. Last season the Knights placed second in the East Division of Conference USA with a 6-2 mark and finished 8-5 overall, but they were whipped by Rutgers, 45-24, in the St. Petersburg Bowl. UCF has 15 starters returning to try and give O’Leary consecutive winning campaigns… Things weren’t quite as bad on offense for UCF as they were in ’08, when the Knights finished last in C-USA in total offense. Last season the Knights showed some improvement, moving up to 10th in the conference with 340.8 YPG. As for scoring, the Knights were eighth, averaging 26.2 PPG. Rob Calabrese, who made three starts at QB, had only 260 yards passing and three touchdowns and entered spring camp with a hold on the starting job. He’ll be blessed with a good mix of skill position talent and four returning starting linemen… For the second straight season, UCF put forth an excellent defensive effort, leading C-USA in total defense (352.5 yards YPG), placing second in scoring defense (22.5 PPG) and topping the conference against the rush (84.7 YPG). Senior end Bruce Miller, the C-USA Defensive Player of the Year, is the leader of the unit that returns seven total starters…The Knights have enough returning talent to again be a factor in C-USA’s East Division race, and another winning campaign and bowl berth appear to be safe bets for the Knights. Odds

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* UCF is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) on grass fields since ‘07. The Average Score was UCF 28, OPPONENT 23

WEST DIVISION

HOUSTON COUGARS
Head Coach: Kevin Sumlin, 3rd year (18-9 SU)
2009 Record: 10-4 SU, 8-5 ATS
Offense: Multiple – Starters Returning: 9
Defense: 3-4 – Starters Returning: 7

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +12.1 (#18 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +7.8 (#30 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 43 (#40 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 – TEXAS ST UNIV
9/10 – UTEP
9/18 – at UCLA
9/25 – TULANE
10/9 – MISSISSIPPI ST
10/16 – at Rice
10/23 – at SMU
10/30 – at Memphis
11/5 – UCF
11/13 – TULSA
11/20 – at Southern Miss
11/27 – at Texas Tech

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 10-4, 26-14 (65%)
Overall ATS: 8-5, 17-20 (46%)
at Home ATS: 5-0, 9-5 (64%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-5, 8-15 (35%)
vs Conference ATS: 5-4, 11-14 (44%)
as Favorite ATS: 5-5, 11-17 (39%)
as Underdog ATS: 3-0, 6-3 (67%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 31.07 (82)
Points Scored – Allowed: 42.2 (1) – 30.1 (95)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 563.2 (1) – 451.3 (111)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 6.86 (5) – 6.02 (99)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 4.56 (35) – 5.11 (108)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 8.11 (19) – 7.35 (78)
Turnover Differential: +0.3 (42)

2010 OUTLOOK
Charged by a lethal passing attack that shredded opposing secondaries for over 6,000 yards, Houston is coming off only its second 10-win season since 1991. The Cougars won Conference USA’s West Division title but were knocked off by East Carolina 38-32 in the championship game. The Cougars faced Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl, but they fell short of making it two in a row over the Falcons, losing 47-20. Most of the high-powered offense returns and the West Division should again be Houston’s… The Cougars scored 591 points, making the 2009 squad the most prolific in school history, as it easily led C-USA in scoring (42.2 PPG), total yardage (563.2 YPG) and passing offense (430.9 YPG). The total offense and passing numbers were also the top marks in the nation. The player at the controls is senior quarterback Case Keenum, the reigning C-USA MVP. The bad news for opposing defenses is that Keenum has his top three receivers back as well as four starters returning on the line…Houston ranked only ninth in C-USA in total defense, giving up 451.3 YPG, but that was due largely to a weak run defense, which surrendered a conference-high total of 3,172 yards, or 226.6 per game. New coordinator Brian Stewart has installed a 3-4 alignment and will strive to strengthen the unit’s run-stopping ability. Seven starters return…Keenum is looking to wrap up his career in record-breaking fashion, and if he and his wideouts can maintain their production, the Cougars should be able to capture the school’s second C-USA title in the past six years. If all goes really well, this team could go undefeated.

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* Over the L2 seasons, HOUSTON is 2-10 ATS (-9 Units) as road favorites. The Average Score was HOUSTON 34.3, OPPONENT 38.3

RICE OWLS
Head Coach: David Bailiff, 4th year (15-22 SU)
2009 Record: 2-10 SU, 4-7-1 ATS
Offense: Spread – Starters Returning: 9
Defense: 4-2-5 – Starters Returning: 9

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -24.8 (#119 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -23.3 (#120 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 15 (#115 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 – TEXAS
9/11 – at North Texas
9/18 – NORTHWESTERN
9/25 – BAYLOR
10/2 – SMU
10/9 – at UTEP
10/16 – HOUSTON
10/23 – at UCF
11/6 – at Tulsa
11/13 – at Tulane
11/20 – E CAROLINA
11/27 – UAB

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 2-10, 15-22 (41%)
Overall ATS: 4-7, 18-17 (51%)
at Home ATS: 2-3, 9-7 (56%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 2-4, 9-10 (47%)
vs Conference ATS: 3-4, 15-8 (65%)
as Favorite ATS: 1-0, 10-3 (77%)
as Underdog ATS: 3-7, 8-14 (36%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 35.33 (57)
Points Scored – Allowed: 18.3 (110) – 43.1 (120)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 304.6 (111) – 464.0 (117)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 4.25 (117) – 6.60 (113)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 3.22 (107) – 4.73 (99)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 5.19 (117) – 9.09 (118)
Turnover Differential: -0.8 (107)

2010 OUTLOOK
Rice has experienced some wild swings, record-wise, in the three years that David Bailiff has served as head coach. In his first season, 2007, the Owls were just 3-9. But they rebounded the following year, winning 10 games .Last season, flying low again, dropping back to 2-10. There are 18 starters returning and they will look to get the program back on track…The Owls were held under 20 points in seven of their 10 losses, ranking 11th in Conference USA in scoring (18.3 PPG) and 12th in total offense (304.6 YPG). Junior Nick Fanuzzi will again be calling signals at quarterback. A year ago he played in 10 games and managed to throw for 1,598 yards, 11 touchdowns and eight picks, but those numbers were a big drop off from the ones that former starter Chase Clement generated. The two leading ground gainers return in the backfield and they will be looking to take some pressure off Fanuzzi. The interior returns intact, which should bode well for Fanuzzi’s improvement…From the opening-game loss to UAB, which resulted in 44 points for the Blazers to a season-closing 73-14 setback to Houston, the defense was pretty much shredded on a weekly basis, allowing a school-record number of points and finishing last in C-USA in scoring (43.1 PPG) and total defense (464.0 YPG). Nine starters return from the wreckage with an obvious collective chip on their shoulders…Injuries, inconsistency and mounting losses made for a seemingly endless 2009 for Rice. A large group of players who endured that adversity have returned to make amends, but huge improvements on both sides of the ball will be necessary for the Owls to make any progress. Las Vegas Odds

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* RICE is on a 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) run at home vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. The Average Score was RICE 34.2, OPPONENT 25.9

SMU MUSTANGS
Head Coach: June Jones, 3rd year (9-16 SU)
2009 Record: 8-5 SU, 7-5 ATS
Offense: Run-and-Shoot – Starters Returning: 8
Defense: 3-4 – Starters Returning: 7

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +1.6 (#61 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -0.5 (#71 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 30 (#85 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/5 – at Texas Tech
9/11 – UAB
9/18 – WASHINGTON ST
9/24 – TCU
10/2 – at Rice
10/9 – TULSA
10/16 – at Navy
10/23 – HOUSTON
10/30 – at Tulane
11/6 – at UTEP
11/20 – MARSHALL
11/26 – at E Carolina

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 8-5, 10-27 (27%)
Overall ATS: 7-5, 14-20 (41%)
at Home ATS: 2-3, 4-12 (25%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 5-2, 10-8 (56%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-4, 10-14 (42%)
as Favorite ATS: 0-4, 0-9 (0%)
as Underdog ATS: 7-1, 14-11 (56%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 29.08 (100)
Points Scored – Allowed: 29.2 (45) – 27.6 (80)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 391.8 (51) – 397.1 (85)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 5.99 (30) – 5.56 (71)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 3.78 (81) – 4.39 (87)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 7.77 (31) – 6.89 (51)
Turnover Differential: +0.2 (51)

2010 OUTLOOK
Head coach June Jones and his SMU squad entered last season in search of a little stability, having dropped 11 of 12 games the previous year and with the program going 11 straight seasons without posting a winning record. Not only did the Mustangs find stability, they flourished, winning six of eight C-USA games and advancing to a postseason game for the first time since 1984, whipping Nevada, 45-10, in the Hawaii Bowl to finish at 8-5. Jones will rely on 15 returning starters to try and put together back-to-back winning seasons…Although SMU’s Run-and-Shoot passing attack was not in the same galaxy as Houston’s potent air game, the Mustangs still finished second in C-USA, averaging 282.0 yards per game and producing 22 touchdowns. Overall the Ponies were sixth in the conference in total offense (391.8 YPG) and fifth in scoring (29.2 PPG). Sophomore Kyle Padron returns as the starter, after going 6-1 in that role. Although the receiving corps does return three starters, it will be without Emmanuel Sanders, who caught 98 balls. Four experienced linemen, all juniors, return to the interior to give Padron time in the pocket…SMU made huge strides on defense and that played a big part in the team’s turnaround. After finishing last in C-USA in total and scoring defense in 2008, the Mustangs made a strong recovery and moved up to fifth in total defense (397.1 YPG) and sixth in scoring defense (27.6 PPG). Seven starters are back… SMU had the biggest turnaround of any Division I-A team in the nation and now has the attention of every C-USA opponent. There’s a solid base of personnel returning, but challenges are ahead.

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* SMU is on a 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) skid at home vs. teams giving up 31 or more PPG . The Average Score was SMU 23.5, OPPONENT 26.7

TULANE GREEN WAVE
Head Coach: Bob Toledo, 4th year (9-27 SU)
2009 Record: 3-9 SU, 4-8 ATS
Offense: Multiple – Starters Returning: 7
Defense: Multiple – Starters Returning: 4

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -20.6 (#116 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -20.5 (#116 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 11 (#118 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 – SE LOUISIANA
9/11 – OLE MISS
9/25 – at Houston
10/2 – at Rutgers
10/9 – ARMY
10/16 – at Tulsa
10/23 – at UTEP
10/30 – SMU
11/6 – SOUTHERN MISS
11/13 – RICE
11/20 – UCF
11/27 – at Marshall

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 3-9, 9-27 (25%)
Overall ATS: 4-8, 14-21 (40%)
at Home ATS: 2-4, 6-12 (33%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 2-4, 8-9 (47%)
vs Conference ATS: 2-6, 7-17 (29%)
as Favorite ATS: 0-0, 1-5 (17%)
as Underdog ATS: 3-8, 12-16 (43%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 30 (89)
Points Scored – Allowed: 16.1 (115) – 36.7 (115)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 313.0 (105) – 422.8 (102)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 4.89 (103) – 6.31 (104)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 3.22 (108) – 4.94 (106)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 6.66 (89) – 8.63 (114)
Turnover Differential: -1.3 (119)

2010 OUTLOOK
Tulane’s 2009 season was nearly a carbon copy of 2008. Both times Tulane split the first four games to drum up some optimism but then fell off the cliff the rest of the way, losing eight straight in ’08 and seven of eight a year ago. After last season’s 2-2 start the Green Wave lost the next four games by a combined score of 160-32. The two biggest playmakers on offense have departed, so even with a schedule that has seven games in New Orleans, an eighth straight losing season is very likely…Tulane had the most anemic offense in Conference USA, scoring just 24 touchdowns and 193 points for an average of 16.1 per game, while being shut out twice. Head coach Bob Toledo used two quarterbacks to run the offense, Joe Kemp and Ryan Griffin. Griffin entered spring camp as the incumbent starter, after throwing for 1,382 yards and nine touchdowns, with six interceptions. Two big holes will need to be filled with the losses of RB Andre Anderson( 1,036 yards, 8 TD’s) and WR Jeremy Williams (84 catches, 1,113 yards, 7 TD’s). The line should be cohesive with four starters back…Rice was the only defense in C-USA that surrendered more than the 440 points that Tulane allowed, working out to an average of 36.7 PPG. Strangely enough the Green Wave were seventh in the conference in total defense, allowing 422.8 YPG. Only four of last year’s starters have returned…Combining the holes on defense and in the kicking game, with the loss of two of the biggest producers on offense, it’s shaping up as another tough year for the Green Wave. Back-to-back games against Mississippi and Houston may help damage team morale.

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* TULANE is on a 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) skid on the road vs. good offensive teams – averaging >=425 YPG . The Average Score was TULANE 17.6, OPPONENT 43.8

TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANE
Head Coach: Todd Graham, 4th year (26-14 SU)
2009 Record: 5-7 SU, 5-6-1 ATS
Offense: Spread No-Huddle – Starters Returning: 9
Defense: 3-3-5 – Starters Returning: 5

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +1.9 (#60 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -3.7 (#80 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 34 (#73 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/5 – at E Carolina
9/11 – BOWLING GREEN
9/18 – at Oklahoma St
9/25 – C ARKANSAS
10/2 – at Memphis
10/9 – at SMU
10/16 – TULANE
10/30 – at Notre Dame
11/6 – RICE
11/13 – at Houston
11/20 – UTEP
11/26 – SOUTHERN MISS

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 5-7, 26-14 (65%)
Overall ATS: 5-6, 18-20 (47%)
at Home ATS: 3-3, 10-8 (56%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 2-3, 8-12 (40%)
vs Conference ATS: 2-5, 9-16 (36%)
as Favorite ATS: 2-4, 13-15 (46%)
as Underdog ATS: 2-2, 4-5 (44%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 29.75 (94)
Points Scored – Allowed: 29.3 (44) – 27.3 (74)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 410.1 (35) – 397.0 (84)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 5.66 (56) – 5.61 (75)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 3.77 (82) – 3.86 (51)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 8.00 (23) – 7.65 (94)
Turnover Differential: -0.2 (72)

2010 OUTLOOK
During his first two seasons as Tulsa’s head coach, Todd Graham led the Golden Hurricane to an impressive 21-7 record and a pair of bowl victories. The program lost some momentum last year by suffering six losses over the final seven games to finish with a 5-7 mark, its first sub-.500 record since 2004. There is some rebuilding to do on defense with the loss of six starters, but with nine offensive starters back in the fold, the expectations are for Tulsa to return to its winning ways…The offensive attack was an absolute juggernaut in 2008, leading C-USA in scoring, total offense and rushing. The offense put in a respectable effort last season, but was not nearly as potent, ranking fourth in the conference in scoring (29.3 PPG) and fifth in total offense (410.1 YPG). G.J. Kinne returns as the starter at quarterback after winning the job as a sophomore while having to fill the huge shoes of David Johnson. Running back Jahmad Williams and WR Damaris Johnson are skilled positional players that should put up big numbers. Stability on the line shouldn’t be an issue with four starters returning… The stop unit placed fifth in C-USA in scoring (27.3 PPG) and sixth in total defense (397.0 YPG). Defense, however, was an issue during the six-game losing skein that sank the season as the unit allowed an average of 36.0 PPG…The offense fell off a notch last season, but Kinne should improve his numbers, as should the attack unit as a whole. The key will be establishing a running game. Provided there isn’t another defensive collapse, Tulsa should move back over the .500 mark.

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* TULSA is on a 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) skid as home favorites of 7.5 to 14 points . The Average Score was TULSA 31.1, OPPONENT 24.9

UTEP MINERS
Head Coach: Mike Price, 7th year (34-38 SU)
2009 Record: 4-8 SU, 5-7 ATS
Offense: One-Back – Starters Returning: 7
Defense: 4-3 – Starters Returning: 4

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -3.7 (#86 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -7.5 (#96 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 29 (#89 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 – AK-PINE BLUFF
9/10 – at Houston
9/18 – NEW MEXICO ST
9/25 – MEMPHIS
10/2 – at New Mexico
10/9 – RICE
10/16 – at UAB
10/23 – TULANE
10/30 – at Marshall
11/6 – SMU
11/13 – at Arkansas
11/20 – at Tulsa

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 4-8, 13-23 (36%)
Overall ATS: 5-7, 16-19 (46%)
at Home ATS: 3-3, 8-9 (47%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 2-4, 8-10 (44%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-4, 12-12 (50%)
as Favorite ATS: 2-5, 3-10 (23%)
as Underdog ATS: 3-2, 13-9 (59%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 29.42 (96)
Points Scored – Allowed: 29.8 (35) – 33.5 (104)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 426.8 (21) – 446.9 (110)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 6.23 (19) – 6.09 (101)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 4.52 (42) – 5.03 (107)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 7.86 (26) – 7.36 (80)
Turnover Differential: -0.3 (77)

2010 OUTLOOK
The 2009 season was one of inconsistency for UTEP as the Miners were never able to tack together two wins in a row while also falling prey to losing streaks of two and four games. UTEP had its moments of overachieving in wins over Houston and Marshall and its moments of underachieving in losses to Memphis and Rice. Head coach Mike Price has been unable to lift the Miners over the .500 mark for four straight seasons but he’s hoping some offensive standouts and a reworked defense will help turn the tide…Led by two of the biggest stars in C-USA, the Miners placed second in total offense (426.8 YPG) and were third in scoring (29.8 PPG). Returning for a fourth consecutive season as quarterback is senior Trevor Vittatoe, whose career totals include 75 touchdowns and 29 interceptions. UTEP’s other stud on offense is senior running back Donald Buckram, who had a school-record 1,594 yards rushing and 18 touchdowns. The line lost two starters but returns a strong senior core to protect Vittatoe and spring Buckram loose… The stop unit has a new look, led by a new coordinator in Andre Patterson and moving from a 3-3-5 base defense to a 4-3. Throw in the fact that seven starters, including the top two tacklers, have departed, and Patterson has plenty of work to do. The Miners were eighth in the conference in total defense (446.9 YPG) and ninth in scoring defense (33.5 PPG)… It will take a while for the defense to jell, so the arm of Vittatoe and the legs of Buckram will have to carry this team for at least the first month. If the pair can have big years, UTEP could squeeze out six wins.

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* UTEP is on a 1-10 ATS (-10 Units) skid as road favorites of 7 points or less . The Average Score was UTEP 25.5, OPPONENT 31.5


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