The Los Angeles Sparks are 7-16, the Minnesota Lynx are 7-14. Point differentials, strength ratings, and even game simulations suggest that these teams are very close to one another. That’s what makes it so intriguing that Minnesota finds itself as a 7-point home favorite for their WNBA contest Tuesday night, a line that quickly shot up from the opening number of 5.5. Are sharp bettors on to something about this game? Let’s take a closer look to see if we can’t all benefit from their wisdom. Scores
The first thing bettors will want to consider when they look at the contest is its importance when it comes to the playoff picture since despite the teams’ abysmal records, Los Angeles can move into a tie with the Lynx for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference.
The Sparks have also beaten Minnesota in four straight head-to-head games while going 3-1 ATS. The early line move would suggest that bettors don’t give one iota about this fact.
The Associated Press game preview seems to be trying to lead bettors in the opposite direction, indicating “The Sparks appear to be facing the Lynx at the right time. Minnesota has dropped three straight and is coming off a 127-124 double-overtime home loss to Phoenix on Saturday, the highest-scoring game in WNBA history. Odds“
However, it here where you realize that the difference in play recently is what may be driving the price on Minnesota higher & higher. When Los Angeles played Minnesota last month, the Sparks lost their star player for the season, Candace Parker, placing their hopes for a playoff berth in jeopardy. Parker dislocated her shoulder in the 88-84 win at home on June 13th.
That game, and injury, has sent these teams in completely opposite directions. The Sparks have gone 4-9 since, with the defensive effort suffering the most. Los Angeles has yielded 75-points or more in all but three games during that span. Las Vegas Odds
The Lynx meanwhile, are 5-5 SU & 6-4 ATS, and though they have lost three straight games, the margin in those contests is a combined seven points, with losses to the likes of Seattle, San Antonio, and Phoenix. Minnesota is clearly a team that is improving as the season wears on, and this is an important contest for the franchise. The Lynx will have a motivating payback trend behind them for tonight’s game:
MINNESOTA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games revenging a same season loss versus opponent over the last 2 seasons. The average score was MINNESOTA 90.7, OPPONENT 81.4 – (Rating = 2*)
Speaking of revenge, how about a powerful system to back that trend:
Play On – Favorites (MINNESOTA) – revenging a loss where opponent scored 85 or more points, off an upset loss as a home favorite. (23-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.1%, +17.5 units. Rating = 2*)
Although the StatFox Game Estimator calls for a 2-point Minnesota win, plus the Power Rating Line and Outplay Factor Line both indicate a bit less, there seems to be enough evidence to believe that early bettors have this one right. Don’t be surprised to see the Lynx tear into the Sparks tonight in front of the home folks. They seem to be the more-ready postseason club at this point.