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IT’S BEEN UP & DOWN FOR DOLPHINS OF LATE
Thu, 22 Jul 2010 01:43 PM EDT

It’s been a roller coaster ride for the Miami franchise over the last six or seven years, as the Dolphins have had little success in putting good campaigns back-to-back. This past season, they dropped from 11 to 7 wins and out of the playoffs. However, with Chad Henne now in the unquestioned role of starting quarterback and the key acquisition of wide receiver Brandon Marshall, Miami may have the pieces in place to get back to the postseason. Our 32 NFL teams in 32 days season preview series continues with a look at the 2010 Miami Dolphins. Basketball Scores

MIAMI DOLPHINS
2009 Record:7-9 (-1.3 ML Units), 8-8 ATS
DIVISION:AFC East
COACH:Tony Sparano, 3rd year (18-15 SU, 16-17 ATS)
STADIUM:Dolphins Stadium
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:40 to 1, AFC Title:15 to 1
StatFox Power Rating:20 (#16 of 32)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating:+0.3 (#18 of 32)

SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 7-9 ~ 19-30 (39%)
ATS: 8-8 ~ 21-26 (45%)
Preseason ATS: 3-0 ~ 8-3 (73%)
Home ATS: 3-5 ~ 6-18 (25%)
Road ATS: 5-3 ~ 15-8 (65%)
Division ATS: 5-1 ~ 10-7 (59%)
Conference ATS: 7-5 ~ 19-17 (53%)
Favorite ATS: 1-3 ~ 3-10 (23%)
Underdog ATS: 7-5 ~ 18-16 (53%)
Over-Under: 9-6 ~ 24-24 (50%)

2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: -1.9 (#20 of 32)
Yardage Differential: -12 (#20 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: -0.82 (#26 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: -0.68 (#19 of 32)
Turnover Differential: -7 (#24 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 339.4 (#17 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 351.4 (#21 of 32) NFL Lines

2010 SCHEDULE: Strength – 20.88 (13th toughest of 32)
DATE – OPPONENT, TIME
9/12/10 – at Buffalo, 1:00 PM
9/19/10 – at Minnesota, 1:00 PM
9/26/10 – NY JETS, 8:20 PM
10/4/10 – NEW ENGLAND, 8:30 PM
10/17/10 – at Green Bay, 1:00 PM
10/24/10 – PITTSBURGH, 1:00 PM
10/31/10 – at Cincinnati, 1:00 PM
11/7/10 – at Baltimore, 1:00 PM
11/14/10 – TENNESSEE, 1:00 PM
11/18/10 – CHICAGO, 8:20 PM
11/28/10 – at Oakland, 4:05 PM
12/5/10 – CLEVELAND, 1:00 PM
12/12/10 – at NY Jets, 4:15 PM
12/19/10 – BUFFALO, 1:00 PM
12/26/10 – DETROIT, 1:00 PM
1/2/11 – at New England, 1:00 PM

Sample StatFox Power Trend for 2010

  • MIAMI is on a 11-0 UNDER the total (+11 Units) run at home revenging a home loss against opponent The Average Score was MIAMI 19.4, OPPONENT 142010 OUTLOOK
    A hiccup was expected in some respects after Miami improved from one win to 11 in head coach Tony Sparano’s first season at the helm. But rest assured that director of football operations, Bill Parcells, will not be happy with another mediocre showing in the win column. The Dolphins weathered a storm of injuries that knocked out a host of key players on both sides of the ball to find themselves in the thick of the playoff race in December…QB Chad Henne had a solid year considering the lackluster supporting cast he was surrounded by. The top three wide receivers combined for five touchdowns between them as Miami focused its offense around the tandem of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams in the backfield. So Parcells and his team acquired Brandon Marshall (Broncos) for two draft picks and gave their franchise QB exactly what he needed, a franchise wide receiver. On his own, Marshall grabbed 10 touchdowns—and finished third in the NFL with 101 receptions. Defenses should no longer be able load up on the run. Guards Richie Incognito (Bills) joins an emerging line that also includes left tackle Jake Long…Much like the offense, the defense lacked an impact player, but Parcells and the coaching staff added more than one single player to turn around a unit that finished No. 22 in the NFL. The signing of Karlos Dansby (Cardinals) was the big ticket move, but the team also used seven of its eight draft picks on defense… All things being equal, the Jets are the clear alpha dog in the AFC East. The Patriots, however, could be ripe for the taking. Don’t be fooled by Miami’s stumble to the finish. The return of Brown and addition of Marshall might be enough to push the Dolphins back over the playoff bubble. NFL Scores

    Sportsbook.com Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 8.5
    StatFox Steve’s Take: There are a number of things I’m not sold on about this Miami team. First, Chad Henne is not an automatic for me at QB yet. Second, any team that runs the wildcat as regularly as the Dolphins is relying too much on gimmicks. Third, Miami ranked 20th in the NFL last year in scoring and yardage differential. Fourth, and finally, I’m not ready to dismiss New England yet. It all adds up to a playoff-less season in South Beach. UNDER.

  • For a more complete look at the 2010 college and pro football seasons, pick up your copy of our annual football magazine, the StatFox Edge, a 160-page Ultimate Handicapping Resource!

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