Jacksonville will be missing its top two offensive players when it travels to Houston with hopes of reaching the playoffs. QB David Garrard (finger) and RB Maurice Jones-Drew (knee) will not play on Sunday. A Jaguars win combined with Indianapolis losing to Tennessee would make the Jags AFC South champions for the first time since 1999. The Texans are trying to finish a disappointing season on a high note and are also trying to avenge their Hail Mary-TD loss at Jacksonville on Nov. 14. Odds.
Trent Edwards will replace Garrard (23 TD, 15 INT) under center and he should have WR Mike Sims Walker (foot) available to throw the football to. Edwards is 43-for-76 for 381 yards, 1 TD and 4 INT this year with Buffalo and Jacksonville combined. For his career, Edwards carries a 75.8 QB rating (25 TD, 29 INT), but he may never face a worse pass defense than Houston’s, allowing 277 passing YPG this year. For the Jaguars to have any chance to win, Jones-Drew’s replacement, Rashad Jennings, must perform better. Jennings was held to 32 yards on 15 carries in last week’s overtime loss to Washington. Scores.
The Texans are also not at full speed with WR Andre Johnson doubtful because of a sprained ankle. But QB Matt Schaub should still be able to throw the football against Jacksonville’s 26th ranked pass defense (250 YPG). Houston is also 10th in the NFL in rushing, thanks to Arian Foster. The second-year RB leads the NFL with 1,436 rushing yards and 16 total touchdowns.
The Texans are 6-2 ATS (5-3 SU) when hosting Jacksonville and 11-6 ATS (8-9 SU) in 17 all-time meetings. These two FoxSheets trends also side with Houston to win the game and eliminate Jacksonville from playoff contention.
HOUSTON is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in home games avenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points since 1992. The average score was HOUSTON 24.6, OPPONENT 20.2 – (Rating = 3*).
Play On – Any team (HOUSTON) – avenging a road loss against opponent, off an upset loss as a road favorite.(72-37 since 1983.) (66.1%, +31.3 units. Rating = 2*). Las Vegas odds.
The FoxSheets also expect the game to finish Under the Total:
Play Under – Any team against the total (HOUSTON) – off an upset loss as a road favorite, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games, in the second half of the season. (31-9 since 1983.) (77.5%, +21.1 units. Rating = 3*).
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