Page last updated on Sat Oct 10 14:20:37 EDT 2015
Thu, 24 Mar 2011 06:15 PM EDT


at MIAMI HEAT (41-15)

Tip-off: Tuesday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Miami -13.5, Total: 204

The Heat come back from the All-Star break with their eyes on first place in the Eastern Conference, while the Kings look for a fresh start in the second half. Odds.

Sacramento has been bad as expected this year. The extremely young Kings (13-40 SU, 22-30 ATS) have the third-worst record in the NBA. Sacramento has been happy to see its emerging young stars Tyreke Evans (18.3 PPG) and DeMarcus Cousins (14.0 PPG) playing better together. Unfortunately, Evans is doubtful for Tuesday’s game with plantar fasciitis and Sacramento is 1-6 without him in the lineup. If Evans is unable to go, the Kings will need Cousins to take on a greater scoring load. Cousins had an impressive Rookie Challenge Game scoring 33 points and grabbing 14 rebounds.

After a 9-8 start, the Heat have proceeded to go 32-7 (82%) and find themselves a few percentage points back of the Celtics at 41-15. Many critics were all over the Heat early in the season, but the three stars, LeBron James (26.1 PPG), Dwyane Wade (25.4 PPG) and Chris Bosh (18.5 PPG), tuned them all out and learned how to play together. The Heat have been stellar at home going 20-5 and are 14-2 overall since Thanksgiving. During the Heat’s most recent winning run of 10 out of 11 victories, James has averaged 27.0 points, 8.1 assists, 8.0 rebounds, and is shooting 53.7 percent from the field. Dwyane Wade tweaked his ankle in the All-Star Game, but says he will be ready to go Tuesday night. Wade will look to stay hot after scoring 69 points in the two games prior to the All-Star lay-off.

Miami is 23-4 ATS in the past 27 meetings with the Kings, which includes five straight victories by an average of 19.0 PPG. Scores.

Sacramento hasn’t won a game in Miami since Nov. 10, 2001. Miami has been very good against Pacific Division opponents going 6-2 ATS this year and 20-8 ATS over the last three seasons. Although Miami has been below average at home against the spread (9-15), the Heat have had to cover extremely large spreads having extremely large expectations. On the other hand, the young Kings are terrible against good offensive teams going 9-19 ATS against teams that score 99.0 PPG or more. Sacramento has also had no luck against Southeast Division foes notching a 6-20 ATS record over the last three seasons. With Evans not likely to go and the Heat playing spectacular basketball, I like Miami to hand the Kings a defeat by at least 20 points. The FoxSheets also expect the Heat to win and cover.

Play Against – Road teams (SACRAMENTO) – revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points against opponent off 2 or more consecutive road wins. (87-46 since 1996.) (65.4%, +36.4 units. Rating = 2*).

Ten of the past 13 meetings at Miami have finished Under the total and this highly-rated FoxSheets trend also sides with the Under.

SACRAMENTO is 18-5 UNDER (+12.5 Units) after having lost 4 of their last 5 games this season. The average score was SACRAMENTO 92.3, OPPONENT 99.7 – (Rating = 3*). Basketball odds.

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