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MLB HANDICAPPING STUDY – DIVISIONAL DOGS
Thu, 15 Jul 2010 06:03 PM EDT

I had a conversation last week with a FoxSheets subscriber who claimed to have consistent success in betting baseball by following just a short list of fundamental concepts and strategies. While some of them were FoxSheets info-related in terms of systems and power ratings, etc, one of them was much more straight forward and it involved simply looking for value-laden underdogs in divisional games. Of course this piqued my curiosity, and to scratch that itch, I went back and did a study analyzing the performance of divisional dogs over the last decade. Odds

One of the most fundamental beliefs in anyone who puts more weight in divisional games is that there is a familiarity that decreases the theoretical talent margin between two teams. They face each other so many times each season that they are well-versed in the strengths and weaknesses of each player and thus the opponent as a whole. Realistically, the oddsmaker doesn’t take this into account as much, since they are typically building their lines from a more universal set of power ratings that doesn’t recognize situational factors such as divisional play. Obviously the underlying thought is that this disconnect should lend value to anyone who believes in the power of the rivalry. Scores

So, having theoretically been convinced that there was some merit to this divisional underdog theory, I set out to find out the actual results. I took all of the divisional games played in Major League Baseball between 2000 and this past Sunday (July 11th) and tabulated the wins, losses, and betting units won had a bettor backed every divisional dog in that time frame. The results are below.

Divisional Road Underdogs in MLB by Season (2000-2010)

Season: W-L (PCT), UNITS
2000: 224-293 (43.3%), +24.4 Units
2001: 284-376 (43.0%), +8.2 Units
2002: 251-417 (37.6%), -57 Units
2003: 265-404 (39.6%), -2.5 Units
2004: 283-403 (41.3%), +4.9 Units
2005: 318-400 (44.3%), +43.9 Units
2006: 301-411 (42.3%), +2.1 Units
2007: 306-377 (44.8%), +53.4 Units
2008: 308-406 (43.1%), +22.1 Units
2009: 270-421 (39.1%), -39.6 Units
2010: 134-187 (41.7%), +1.4 Units
TOTAL: 2944-4095 (41.8%), +61.3 Units

Average Road Underdog Line: -158
Average Return on Investment = 0.9%

As you can see, the divisional road underdog has been generally successful, producing 61.3 units of profit over the last decade-plus, with a R.O.I. of about 0.9%. Now, that isn’t enough to really wow a systems handicapper, but it does suggest that the strategy of backing road divisional dogs will at least keep the average joe in the fight against the oddsmakers. One important thing to note from the season-by-season results is that in only three of the 11 seasons has the road divisional dog netted a loss. So it can be said that the results of 2002 & 2009 in particular skew the numbers of what would be an otherwise more solid theory. Las Vegas Odds

Divisional Home Underdogs in MLB by Season (2000-2010)

Season: W-L (PCT), UNITS
2000: 127-112 (53.1%), +49.5 Units
2001: 157-215 (42.2%), -22.4 Units
2002: 156-210 (42.6%), -4.2 Units
2003: 171-199 (46.2%), +25.6 Units
2004: 150-187 (44.5%), +11 Units
2005: 133-185 (41.8%), -14.9 Units
2006: 162-187 (46.4%), +15.3 Units
2007: 152-184 (45.2%), +0.8 Units
2008: 147-160 (47.9%), +12.2 Units
2009: 143-184 (43.7%), -14.4 Units
2010: 74-77 (49.0%), +13.3 Units
TOTAL: 1572-1900 (45.3%), +71.8 Units

Average Home Underdog Line: +129
Average Return on Investment = 2.1%

The divisional home underdog has proven over doubly effective than those on the road in terms of R.O.I., producing about 2.1% over the last 11 seasons, with a net profit of 71.8 units. Again, only four seasons netted a loss during that time span, with 2002 & 2009 again being part of the group. It is interesting to see that divisional home dogs up through the all-star break in 2010 have won 49% of their games, the highest winning percentage since 2000, with a R.O.I. of 8.8%.

Divisional Road Underdogs in MLB by Line Range (2000-2010)

HOME LINE: W-L (PCT), UNITS
-300 or higher: 24-66 (26.7%), +5.7 Units
-250 to -299: 58-148 (28.2%), -9.6 Units
-220 to -249: 143-252 (36.2%), +47.8 Units
-190 to -219: 236-410 (36.5%), +25.7 Units
-170 to -189: 305-501 (37.8%), +4.4 Units
-150 to -169: 529-801 (39.8%), -25.7 Units
-130 to -149: 786-973 (44.7%), +29.2 Units
-116 to -129: 435-477 (47.7%), +12.5 Units
-106 to -115: 428-467 (47.8%), -28.7 Units
TOTAL: 2944-4095 (41.8%), +61.3 Units

As you can see, there are some distinct breaks in success rates by divisional road dogs when you consider the line range in which they are playing too. There is a so-called “sweet spot” when the home team is favored in the -190 to -249 range. In these games since 2000, the road divisional dog has only won about 36.4% of its games, but has produced 73.5 units of profit. That equates to a R.O.I. of 7.1%. Now that type of return is something that mutual fund managers would kill for nowadays. If only us bettors had dropped our 401K money into this option rather than on Wall Street!

Divisional Home Underdogs in MLB by Line Range (2000-2010)

HOME LINE: W-L (PCT), UNITS
+105 to -104: 440-456 (49.1%), -5.2 Units
+106 to +120: 456-480 (48.7%), +40.8 Units
+121 to +154: 475-585 (44.8%), +54.7 Units
+155 to +199: 167-289 (36.6%), -6.2 Units
+200 or higher: 34-90 (27.4%), -12.3 Units
TOTAL: 1572-1900 (45.3%), +71.8 Units

The break in line range performance by home divisional dogs is very transparent. Those playing in the +106 to +154 range have been a solid investment over the last decade-plus, going 931-1065 for +95.5 units of profit. Compare that to the home divisional dogs in every other range that have netted -23.7 units of loss. Considering that 1,996 games have produced 4.8% R.O.I. over the 11-year span, bettors have a strategy in front of them that has produced both handsomely and consistently. At an average of 190 games per season, bettors can expect to have an opportunity to take advantage about once a night during the baseball season.

Summary
The results of the divisional dogs study are encouraging as it doesn’t take a whole lot of digging to come up with plays that should produce profits over the long haul, assuming of course that proper money management techniques are held to. Of course, this study was conducted using dime lines as the basis, and bettors paying higher vig than that is just cheating themselves. I would have no problem recommending the divisional dog strategy as a basis for beginning your baseball handicapping each day. When you spice in bullpen analysis, systems, and other key strength indicators, you should have all you need to build a nice bankroll each summer.


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Poland - EkstraklasaL POZNAN vs. W KRAKOW09:00 AM PST
Mexico - PrimeraDEP TOLUCA vs. UNAM PUMAS10:00 AM PST
Norway - EliteserienSTABAEK vs. ROSENBORG10:00 AM PST
Slovenia - PrvaLigaGORICA vs. LUKA KOPER11:00 AM PST
Argentina - PrimeraINDEPENDIENTE vs. ATL RAFAELA11:15 AM PST
Czech - 1. LigaV PLZEN vs. B JABLONEC11:15 AM PST
Brazil - Serie APALMEIRAS vs. BAHIA SALVADOR12:00 PM PST
Brazil - Serie ACORITIBA vs. CORINTHIANS12:00 PM PST
Brazil - Serie AFIGUEIRENSE vs. SP RECIFE12:00 PM PST
Brazil - Serie ACHAPECOENSE vs. FLAMENGO12:00 PM PST
Argentina - PrimeraATL LANUS vs. BELGRANO1:00 PM PST
Ecuador - Serie AEL NACIONAL vs. LIGA DE LOJA1:00 PM PST
Ecuador - Serie ALIGA DEP U QUITO vs. MANTA1:00 PM PST
Ecuador - Serie ADEP QUITO vs. IND DEL VALLE1:00 PM PST
Argentina - PrimeraSAN LORENZO vs. OLIMPO B BLANCA1:15 PM PST
Argentina - PrimeraBOCA JRS vs. NEWELL'S2:30 PM PST
Brazil - Serie AFLUMINENSE vs. GOIAS GO2:30 PM PST
Brazil - Serie AATL B HORIZONTE vs. ATLETICO2:30 PM PST
Brazil - Serie AINTERNACIONAL vs. SANTOS2:30 PM PST
Chile - PrimeraAUDAX vs. ATH BARNECHEA3:00 PM PST
Mexico - PrimeraGUADALAJARA vs. LEONES NEGROS3:00 PM PST
USA - MLSHOUSTON D vs. DC UNITED5:00 PM PST
Argentina - PrimeraGIM Y ESG LA PLATA vs. RIVER P5:30 PM PST
USA - MLSCHIVAS USA vs. DALLAS7:00 PM PST
08/13/2014
Scotland - PremierP THISTLE vs. ROSS COUNTY11:45 AM PST
Scotland - PremierST MIRREN vs. HAMILTON ACAD11:45 AM PST
08/16/2014
Scotland - PremierCELTIC vs. DUNDEE UTD07:00 AM PST
UFCO St. Preux vs R Bader7:00 PM PST
UFCT Boetsch vs B TAVARES7:00 PM PST
UFCL Murphy vs S McMann7:00 PM PST
UFCJ Formiga vs Z Makovsky7:00 PM PST
UFCF Camoes vs G Maynard7:00 PM PST
UFCA Trujillo vs R Pearson7:00 PM PST
09/04/2014
NFLGreen Bay Packers vs Seattle Seahawks5:30 PM PST
09/07/2014
NFLNew Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons10:00 AM PST
NFLMinnesota Vikings vs St. Louis Rams10:00 AM PST
NFLCleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers10:00 AM PST
NFLJacksonville Jaguars vs Philadelphia Eagles10:00 AM PST
NFLOakland Raiders vs New York Jets10:00 AM PST
NFLCincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens10:00 AM PST
NFLBuffalo Bills vs Chicago Bears10:00 AM PST
NFLWashington Redskins vs Houston Texans10:00 AM PST
NFLTennessee Titans vs Kansas City Chiefs10:00 AM PST
NFLNew England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins10:00 AM PST
NFLCarolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers1:25 PM PST
NFLSan Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys1:25 PM PST
NFLIndianapolis Colts vs Denver Broncos5:30 PM PST
09/08/2014
NFLNew York Giants vs Detroit Lions4:10 PM PST
NFLSan Diego Chargers vs Arizona Cardinals7:20 PM PST
09/13/2014
BOXINGM Maidana vs F Mayweather Jr8:00 PM PST

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