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MLB SERIES OUTLOOK: BOSTON AT SEATTLE
Mon, 25 Jul 2011 05:46 PM EDT

SEATTLE MARINERS (43-55, -11.8 Units)

at BOSTON RED SOX (59-37, +6.6 Units)

Sportsbook.com Series Line: Boston -220, Seattle +170

Since climbing back to .500 on July 5, the Mariners have gone on to lose 12 straight, all but ending any postseason thoughts. And it’s all happening just in time for Friday’s start of a three-game set in Boston, where the Red Sox have compiled the second-best road record in the American League. Odds.

While the reward on a Boston bet is small, betting the money line on Seattle makes even less sense. They’ve scored just 27 runs during their 12-game losing streak, hitting .208 along the way. Boston, on the other hand, has won 10 of 12 and scored 78 runs during that span. Even if they get a gem from Felix Hernandez on Friday, it’s highly unlikely the M’s will be able to outscore the Sox on Saturday or Sunday. The FoxSheets provide another highly-rated trend siding with BOSTON to win the series.

SEATTLE is 0-9 (-10.2 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with an on-base percentage of .345 or better this season. The average score was SEATTLE 2.6, OPPONENT 6.0 – (Rating = 3*).

Pitching Probables for Friday, July 22 – 7:10 ET
Friday line: Boston -140, Seattle +130, Total: 8.5
SEA: 11-10 (-1.70 Units) when Felix Hernandez starts
BOS: 7-8 (-4.00 Units) when John Lackey starts
This is a great opportunity for Seattle to break its losing streak, though Hernandez (8-8, 3.26 ERA) hasn’t been his usual dominant self this year. Seattle has dropped three of his past four starts, as Hernandez has a middling 3.56 ERA during that span. He had a no-decision in Boston in May, allowing two runs and fanning 10 over seven innings in a Mariners loss. He’s had a lot of success at Fenway Park though. In five career starts in Boston, Hernandez is 3-0 with a 1.49 ERA, as Seattle won four of those games.
After a promising outing against Baltimore right before the All-Star break (6.2 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 7 K), the disastrous 2011 season picked back up for Lackey (7-8, 6.70 ERA). He got the win in Tampa on Saturday, but he allowed four runs and 10 hits in 5.2 innings. He pitched well in a loss to Seattle back in April, holding them to two runs over six innings. He’s pitched very well against the Mariners since signing with the Red Sox last year: a 1.64 ERA in 22 innings over three starts. Scores.

Pitching Probables for Saturday, July 23 – 7:10 ET
Saturday line: TBD
SEA: 1-2 (-0.85 Units) when Blake Beavan starts
BOS: 13-5 (+7.10 Units) when Josh Beckett starts
Beavan (1-1, 2.70 ERA) has gotten off to a pretty good start in his big league career, registering quality starts in each of his first three MLB appearances. He hasn’t exactly been dominant though, striking out just eight in 20 innings. Considering his mediocre numbers in Triple-A Tacoma (5-3, 4.45 ERA in 16 starts), he may not fare well in one of his toughest tests so far.
Beckett (8-3. 2.12 ERA) continues his Cy Young campaign, throwing eight innings of shutout, one-hit ball in Tampa on Sunday. He’s been nearly unhittable at home this year, going 3-0 with a 1.66 ERA as Boston has won six of his seven home starts. Since joining the Red Sox in 2006, he’s dominated the Mariners: 5-0 with a 2.04 ERA against Seattle, and Boston has won all six of his starts against the M’s.

Pitching Probables for Sunday, July 24 – 1:35 ET
Sunday line: TBD
SEA: 9-10 (-1.85 Units) when Michael Pineda starts
BOS: 8-4 (+2.85 Units) when Tim Wakefield starts
Pineda (8-6, 3.24 ERA) has hit a bit of a rookie wall, posting a 6.46 ERA over his past four starts. He’s still striking out hitters (25 K in 23.2 innings during that span), but his control has been off (11 walks) and he’s given up four homers in those four games. This will be his first career start against Boston, so he might have an edge against a team seeing him for the first time.
Wakefield (5-3, 4.80 ERA) has been nothing to write home about, especially of late. Since June 1, he has a 5.29 ERA. His ERA in three July starts is 5.82, but the Sox have won all three of those games thanks to some monster offense. He’s just 4-10 career as a starter against the Mariners, but did hold them to one run over 5.2 innings in a Sox victory in May. Las Vegas odds.


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