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MLB SERIES OUTLOOK: SEATTLE AT N.Y. YANKEES
Wed, 27 Jul 2011 06:00 PM EDT

SEATTLE MARINERS (43-58, -14.8 Units)

at NEW YORK YANKEES (59-40, +6.0 Units)

Sportsbook.com Series Line: New York -360, Seattle +280

It’s never a good time to play a team that has the third-best winning percentage in baseball (.596) like the 59-40 New York Yankees. When you’re the Seattle Mariners, and you’ve lost a franchise record 15 straight games, it’s not a good time to play anybody. The Bad News Bears would be a formidable opponent for Eric Wedge’s 43-58 team. Wedge, desperate for a change in karma, cut off his mustache before Sunday’s game. Late into the game, the closest the Mariners came to being inspired by their manager was when a late grand slam by Brendan Ryan cut into the Red Sox lead the way Wedge cut into his lip hairs. Wedge took out all of the mustache, his team, down eight at the time, could not take out all of the lead as the BoSox defeated them, 12-8. “This is definitely frustrating,” Ryan said. “There aren’t too many laughs now. There shouldn’t be.” Baseball spreads.

The Yankees enter the three-game set coming off of a series victory over the Oakland Athletics, doing it with an explosive offense, which generated 27 runs and 35 hits over the three games. The pick here is for heavily-favored NEW YORK to win the series from the struggling Mariners.

These FoxSheets back up the Yankees with these highly-rated trends.

Play Against – Any team (SEATTLE) – terrible offensive team (<=4.2 runs/game) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA<=3.50) (AL), after allowing 9 runs or more. (50-15 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.9%, +32.3 units. Rating = 4*).

Play On – All favorites with a money line of -150 or more (NY YANKEES) – below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 or better on the season (AL). (176-56 since 1997.) (75.9%, +81.6 units. Rating = 3*).

While the Mariners enjoyed some success earlier this season against the Bronx Bombers, taking two of three from New York, they have struggled recently at Yankee Stadium, dropping 13 of the past 17 visits. Since June 10, the M’s have been dreadful on the road, losing 11 straight contests. That is in stark contrast to the Yankees who are 15-4 at home during that same timeframe.

Pitching Probables for Monday, July 25 – 7:05 ET
Monday line: New York -210, Seattle +190, Total: 9
SEA: 9-11 (+0.05 Units) when Jason Vargas starts
NYY: 9-8 (-0.75 Units) when Freddy Garcia starts
Garcia enters the game sporting a stellar 3.16 ERA. He has won three of his past five outings, and is coming off of one of his better showings this season, a 4-0 victory over Tampa Bay in which he pitched 6.2 innings of shutout baseball, striking out seven and walking none. Vargas lost to the Yanks in May. He drew the short straw and had to pitch against CC Sabathia, but his bigger problem was his statline. When the number of hits allowed (5), runs allowed (6) and BB (4) is bigger than the number of innings pitched (3), you’re probably taking the loss, which he did, 7-1 on May 29. He hopes Monday will be a different story. Baseball lines.

Pitching Probables for Tuesday, July 26 – 7:05 ET
Tuesday line: TBD
SEA: 5-15 (-9.05 Units) when Doug Fister starts
NYY: 16-6 (+6.85 Units) when CC Sabathia starts
Maybe Doug Fister will come out Tuesday and pitch like he’s the 14-game winner and perennial Cy Young candidate. Maybe Sabathia will become very human and look like a guy who is 3-11 on the year. Maybe pigs will fly. If you don’t believe in pitchers switching bodies, or bodies of work, the Yankees would appear to have the distinct advantage in this matchup. Sabathia defeated Seattle in May when he went eight innings and basically made just one mistake, a solo HR in the sixth inning to Justin Smoak. Sabathia has been borderline unconscious of late, winning seven of his past eight outings. The only loss came in his last start, a 2-1 defeat against Tampa Bay’s James Shields, a pitchers’ duel in the truest sense of the word. On May 30, Fister went 7.1 innings against the Orioles, allowing three runs and earning the win. That was the last time that Fister made his way into the win column this year. He has lost six games and had another three no-decisions in that stretch.

Pitching Probables for Wednesday, July 27 – 1:05 ET
Wednesday line: TBD
SEA: 11-11 (-2.70 Units) when Felix Hernandez starts
NYY: 3-3 (-0.70 Units) when Phil Hughes starts
If Phil Hughes is to assure the Yankees brass that he is back and at full strength since missing half of April and all of May and June with arm trouble, he will get the ultimate measuring stick when he is scheduled to start opposite “King” Felix Hernandez in a matinee affair on Wednesday. Considering the bottom-of-the-basement offense that the Mariners put on the field every day, the fact that Hernandez is 8-9 with a 3.47 ERA is a minor miracle. Nonetheless, he is human, evidenced by his last start when he allowed six runs and 11 hits over 6.1 innings as he was on the short end of a 7-4 loss to the Boston Red Sox. Hughes is looking to greatly improve on his last outing, when his team’s 17-run explosion was almost enough to overshadow the fact that he allowed seven runs on nine hits over 4.1 innings. Not exactly a quality start. Seattle enters this series with the worst hitting and lowest-scoring offense in baseball. New York enters a ridiculous 29-6 (83%, +21.2 Units) in day games this year. If Hughes struggles against this team like he did last Friday, expect fan hysteria in the Bronx to go into hyper mode with the trade deadline fast approaching. Baseball betting lines.


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