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MOUNTAIN WEST’S TCU HAS BIGGER GOALS FOR 2010
Sun, 15 Aug 2010 02:16 PM EDT

TCU had national championship aspirations at the conclusion of the 2009 regular season. It settled for a first-ever BCS bowl invitation to the Fiesta Bowl where it eventually lost to Boise State. A win there would have meant a second straight perfect season for a team from the Mountain West Conference. What made the Horned Frogs so dominant was a potent and much improved offense, and with most of that unit back for 2010, expectations are higher than ever in Fort Worth. A national title is now the goal, not the hope. Obviously with that comes the expectation of dominating the MWC, a boast to be challenged by the likes of Utah and Air Force. Perennial frontrunner BYU faces some major questions this season and could take a step or two back if those situations aren’t resolved. Beyond that aforementioned group, several bowl game hopefuls await in San Diego State, Wyoming, and perhaps even Colorado State, a candidate for a most-improved team this season. In Las Vegas and Albuquerque, the home teams could be in for long seasons of rebuilding. Odds

2010 Predicted Finish
1. TCU
2. Air Force
3. Utah
4. San Diego State
5. BYU
6. Wyoming
7. Colorado State
8. New Mexico
9. UNLV

AIR FORCE FALCONS
Head Coach: Troy Calhoun, 4th year (25-14 SU)
2009 Record: 8-5 SU, 7-4-1 ATS
Offense: Multiple – Starters Returning: 5
Defense: 3-4 – Starters Returning: 5

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +14.0 (#14 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +10.6 (#23 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 44 (#35 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 – NORTHWESTERN ST
9/11 – BYU
9/18 – at Oklahoma
9/25 – at Wyoming
10/2 – NAVY
10/9 – COLORADO ST
10/16 – at San Diego St
10/23 – at TCU
10/30 – UTAH
11/6 – at Army
11/13 – NEW MEXICO
11/18 – at UNLV

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 8-5, 25-14 (64%)
Overall ATS: 7-4, 23-12 (66%)
at Home ATS: 3-2, 11-4 (73%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 4-2, 12-8 (60%)
vs Conference ATS: 5-3, 17-7 (71%)
as Favorite ATS: 4-2, 13-4 (76%)
as Underdog ATS: 3-2, 10-8 (56%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 30.69 (83)
Points Scored – Allowed: 29.7 (36) – 15.7 (10)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 371.8 (66) – 288.3 (11)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 4.99 (100) – 4.73 (18)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 4.52 (41) – 3.75 (44)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 7.51 (44) – 6.12 (22)
Turnover Differential: +1.7 (1)

2010 OUTLOOK
Even after making three bowl appearances in a row under head coach Troy Calhoun, Air Force has basically remained stuck behind TCU, BYU and Utah in the Mountain West Conference. The Falcons also have been unable to overtake Navy in the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy series. So there’s room for improvement, even within a generally solid, overachieving program… The Falcons return 100 percent of their rushing and passing production from last season, meaning that quarterbacks Tim Jefferson and Connor Dietz are back and so is a stable of running backs, led by Jared Tew and Asher Clark. Kevin Fogler and Jonathan Warzeka are the leading receivers returning, among underclassmen who accounted for 90 percent of Air Force’s receiving yardage. The projected starters include two seniors, two juniors and a sophomore…Air Force ranked second in the conference and 11th in the country in total defense, allowing only 288.3 YPG. The loss of coordinator Tim DeRuyter to Texas A&M could hurt (Matt Wallerstedt was promoted to replace him), and so could the loss of six starters. However, the Falcons return two of the league’s best cornerbacks—Anthony Wright and Reggie Rembert—along with safety Jon Davis…The Falcons’ season could hinge on one game—Sept. 11 versus BYU in Colorado Springs, where Air Force is 14-4 over the last three years. The Cougars are the only conference rivals that Air Force has failed to beat in Calhoun’s three seasons, but will be. If the Falcons win that game, they would put themselves in position to challenge TCU and Utah for the league title. Otherwise, fourth place looks like the best they can do. Scores

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* AIR FORCE is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) vs. teams with a losing record since ‘07. The Average Score was AIR FORCE 33.6, OPPONENT 16.2

BYU COUGARS
Head Coach: Bronco Mendenhall, 6th year (49-15 SU)
2009 Record: 11-2 SU, 6-7 ATS
Offense: Pro Set – Starters Returning: 6
Defense: 3-4 – Starters Returning: 6

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +13.9 (#15 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +13.6 (#13 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 48 (#20 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 – WASHINGTON
9/11 – at Air Force
9/18 – at Florida St
9/25 – NEVADA
10/1 – at Utah St
10/9 – SAN DIEGO ST
10/16 – at TCU
10/23 – WYOMING
11/6 – UNLV
11/13 – at Colorado St
11/20 – NEW MEXICO
11/27 – at Utah

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 11-2, 32-7 (82%)
Overall ATS: 6-7, 15-22 (41%)
at Home ATS: 1-5, 6-10 (38%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 5-2, 9-12 (43%)
vs Conference ATS: 3-5, 10-14 (42%)
as Favorite ATS: 4-6, 13-20 (39%)
as Underdog ATS: 2-1, 2-2 (50%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 34.85 (63)
Points Scored – Allowed: 35.5 (10) – 21.5 (29)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 427.0 (20) – 329.1 (28)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 6.24 (17) – 4.92 (29)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 4.03 (68) – 3.39 (22)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 8.73 (8) – 6.35 (32)
Turnover Differential: +0.0 (61)

2010 OUTLOOK
BYU was overwhelmed in losses to Florida State and TCU, somewhat obscuring the fact that the Cougars won 10-plus games for the fourth year in a row. That run will be difficult to extend with a non-conference schedule that features a rematch with Florida State and conference visits to TCU and Utah, particularly with a new quarterback. This season will serve as a major test of the consistency of head coach Bronco Mendenhall’s program…There’s a huge variable in BYU’s program at the moment, even beyond the replacing of three-year starting quarterback Max Hall, who won a school record 32 games (against seven losses). Running back Harvey Unga, the Cougars’ career rushing leader, withdrew from BYU in April following an honor code violation, the school said. Unga hopes to be reinstated, which may or may not allow him to play football as a senior. Without Unga, the offense would be in trouble, even with four offensive line starters returning. The quarterback situation will be interesting. Junior Riley Nelson, and freshman Jake Heaps, a highly recruited prospect are the top candidates. BYU ranked second in the Mountain West and 20th in the country in total offense, averaging 427.0 YPG…Some rebuilding of the front seven is necessary, although BYU usually seems to find replacements on the line. The secondary should be solid. The Cougars ranked fourth in the conference and 28th in the country in total defense, allowing 329.1 YPG…Unga’s availability could make a difference of two or three wins. He’s that good and that important. Even with him, the Cougars would have all kinds of trouble beating TCU or Utah on the road, so a third-place finish is about the ceiling. Without him, the Cougars will do well to finish in the top five and play in a bowl game for a sixth season in a row.

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* BYU is on a 7-21 ATS (-16.1 Units) skid vs. teams giving up 31 or more PPG . The Average Score was BYU 35.6, OPPONENT 24

COLORADO STATE RAMS
Head Coach: Steve Fairchild, 3rd year (10-15 SU)
2009 Record: 3-9 SU, 4-8 ATS
Offense: Pro – Starters Returning: 4
Defense: 4-3 – Starters Returning: 10

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -8.2 (#102 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -6.9 (#93 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 24 (#95 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 – vs. Colorado (Denver, CO)
9/11 – at Nevada
9/18 – at Miami Ohio
9/25 – IDAHO
10/2 – TCU
10/9 – at Air Force
10/16 – UNLV
10/23 – at Utah
10/30 – NEW MEXICO
11/6 – at San Diego St
11/13 – BYU
11/20 – at Wyoming

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 3-9, 13-24 (35%)
Overall ATS: 4-8, 16-19 (46%)
at Home ATS: 2-4, 9-7 (56%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 2-4, 7-12 (37%)
vs Conference ATS: 2-6, 11-13 (46%)
as Favorite ATS: 0-4, 2-7 (22%)
as Underdog ATS: 4-3, 14-11 (56%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 32.25 (76)
Points Scored – Allowed: 21.7 (97) – 29.8 (93)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 350.8 (79) – 387.8 (78)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 5.69 (54) – 5.70 (79)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 4.16 (65) – 4.21 (76)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 7.65 (34) – 7.40 (82)
Turnover Differential: +0.1 (58)

2010 OUTLOOK
After a successful first season for head coach Steve Fairchild, and a 3-0 start in 2009, everything came crashing down for Colorado State. The Rams lost their last nine games, including all eight Mountain West Conference contests. Fairchild still believes in what he’s doing in the interest of long-term results, but it is obvious that immediate improvement is necessary if any of those goals are to be achieved…The Rams were below average on both sides of the ball, but they were not horrible. After ranking sixth in the conference in total offense at 350.8 YPG, the Rams will likely introduce a new quarterback. Jon Eastman, now a senior, was overtaken by freshman Pete Thomas and redshirt freshman Niko Ranieri in spring drills. The Rams should have a strong running game again with Leonard Mason returning after rushing for 791 yards, so long as a young offensive line develops sufficiently. The receiving corps is a question mark, with fullback Zac Pauga’s 25 receptions the most of any returning player…Larry Kerr was the coordinator in Colorado State’s glory years under coach Sonny Lubick, but has yet to restore the Rams’ defensive strength, although he made some progress last year. Almost duplicating the offense’s rankings, Colorado State was sixth in the conference and 78th in the country in total defense, allowing 387.8 YPG. Linebacker Mychal Sisson is the star in Kerr’s scheme, one of 10 returning starters, so moderate improvement appears likely, even if the Rams are not quite ready to become dominant defensively…Fairchild says he likes the attitude, unity and leadership of this team, but it will have to produce some results for any belief to take hold, inside or outside of the program. Colorado State is not capable of beating any of the top four teams in the league, but fifth place is not out of reach.

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* COLORADO ST is on a 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) run at home vs. teams scoring 34 or more PPG . The Average Score was COLORADO ST 27, OPPONENT 26.3

NEW MEXICO LOBOS
Head Coach: Mike Locksley, 2nd year (1-11 SU)
2009 Record: 1-11 SU, 5-7 ATS
Offense: Spread – Starters Returning: 6
Defense: 4-3 – Starters Returning: 6

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -19.6 (#114 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -17.4 (#113 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 21 (#106 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 – at Oregon
9/11 – TEXAS TECH
9/18 – UTAH
9/25 – at UNLV
10/2 – UTEP
10/9 – at New Mexico St
10/23 – SAN DIEGO ST
10/30 – at Colorado St
11/6 – WYOMING
11/13 – at Air Force
11/20 – at BYU
11/27 – TCU

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 1-11, 14-23 (38%)
Overall ATS: 5-7, 16-20 (44%)
at Home ATS: 2-4, 9-9 (50%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-3, 7-11 (39%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-4, 10-14 (42%)
as Favorite ATS: 0-1, 6-7 (46%)
as Underdog ATS: 5-6, 10-13 (43%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 36.08 (54)
Points Scored – Allowed: 16.3 (113) – 35.9 (113)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 315.3 (103) – 418.3 (100)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 4.55 (111) – 5.75 (82)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 3.33 (105) – 3.89 (53)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 5.49 (115) – 8.35 (113)
Turnover Differential: -0.6 (103)

2010 OUTLOOK
Mike Locksley hardly could have scripted a worse first year as a head coach, even if he had wanted to. A lawsuit, a suspension and 11 losses added up to one long nightmare, leaving only this consolation: His second season can only be better, right?…Veteran quarterback Donovan Porterie struggled in New Mexico’s new spread offense, so it is just as well that the Lobos are moving on without him. New Mexico ranked eighth in the Mountain West Conference and 103rd in the country in total offense, averaging 315.3 YPG. The next quarterback, B.R. Holbrook, showed positive signs in the spring game, although he may struggle with little experience around him at the skill positions. Most of the six returning offensive starters are on the interior line…The stop unit was just as bad as the offense. New Mexico ranked eighth in the conference and 100th in the country in total defense, allowing 418.3 YPG. The good news is that New Mexico had one incredibly productive player—linebacker Carmen Messina—and he’s back along with five other starters…By the end of the 2009 season, New Mexico was better than a 1-11 football team. Sure, that’s not saying a lot, but it had to be encouraging that the Lobos actually had the ball in the last minute with a chance to upset BYU in November. Moving up from eighth place in the Mountain West Conference will remain difficult, but the Lobos have a chance to pick off about three wins, which would represent a big step forward in Locksley’s second season.

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* NEW MEXICO is on a 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) run vs. marginal losing teams (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) . The Average Score was NEW MEXICO 26.9, OPPONENT 20.6

SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS
Head Coach: Brady Hoke, 2nd year (4-8 SU)
2009 Record: 4-8 SU, 4-8 ATS
Offense: Multiple – Starters Returning: 9
Defense: 3-3-5 – Starters Returning: 8

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -7.2 (#99 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -9.0 (#101 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 24 (#95 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 – NICHOLLS ST
9/11 – at New Mexico St
9/18 – at Missouri
9/25 – UTAH ST
10/9 – at BYU
10/16 – AIR FORCE
10/23 – at New Mexico
10/30 – at Wyoming
11/6 – COLORADO ST
11/13 – at TCU
11/20 – UTAH
11/27 – UNLV

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 4-8, 10-26 (28%)
Overall ATS: 4-8, 15-19 (44%)
at Home ATS: 1-5, 7-9 (44%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-3, 8-10 (44%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-4, 12-12 (50%)
as Favorite ATS: 0-4, 1-5 (17%)
as Underdog ATS: 4-3, 14-14 (50%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 30.42 (85)
Points Scored – Allowed: 23.3 (85) – 30.5 (98)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 341.9 (86) – 382.0 (74)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 5.29 (76) – 5.39 (58)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 2.87 (115) – 3.95 (62)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 7.06 (65) – 7.47 (84)
Turnover Differential: -0.8 (111)

2010 OUTLOOK
Brady Hoke inspired some hope in his first season as San Diego State’s head coach, although the Aztecs faded in November. He will try to give the program more staying power this year. After winning just two Mountain West Conference games, but losing two others by a total of seven points, the Aztecs believe they can work their way into the league’s top five and possibly even play in a bowl game, which they have not done since the conference began playing football in 1999. A total of 17 starters are back…With quarterback Ryan Lindley as a third-year starter, the Aztecs are on the verge of offensive improvement. There’s considerable work to be done offensively by the Aztecs after they ranked eighth in the conference and 86th in the country in total offense, averaging 341.9 YPG. The biggest deficiency is still in the running game, but Lindley produced big numbers, passing for 3,054 yards and 23 touchdowns, but he also threw 16 interceptions. He’s blessed with outstanding receivers, with DeMarco Sampson and Vincent Brown forming the best tandem in the MWC…The Aztecs ranked fifth in the conference and 74th in the country in total defense, allowing 382.0 YPG, outstanding work by coordinator Rocky Long, formerly New Mexico’s long-time coach. Defensive shortcomings always held the Aztecs back, and the improvement on that side of the ball gives them a genuine chance of becoming more competitive… One of the biggest mysteries in the Mountain West, if not all of college football, is why San Diego State can’t build a better program. The Aztecs have the climate, recruiting base and facilities to compete at a much higher level than they do. There are signs of life under Hoke, but San Diego State is still a long way from the conference’s top tier. Below the top four, though, everybody’s fairly indistinguishable, so the Aztecs should get closer to the .500 mark.

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* SAN DIEGO ST is on a 4-17 ATS (-14.7 Units) skid at home vs. good offensive teams – averaging >=5.9 YPP . The Average Score was SAN DIEGO ST 27.7, OPPONENT 36.5

TCU HORNED FROGS
Head Coach: Gary Patterson, 10th year (83-28 SU)
2009 Record: 12-1 SU, 8-5 ATS
Offense: Multiple – Starters Returning: 9
Defense: 4-2-5 – Starters Returning: 7

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +25.5 (#1 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +24.1 (#2 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 58 (#5 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 – vs. Oregon St (Arlington, TX)
9/11 – TENNESSEE TECH
9/18 – BAYLOR
9/24 – at SMU
10/2 – at Colorado St
10/9 – WYOMING
10/16 – BYU
10/23 – AIR FORCE
10/30 – at UNLV
11/6 – at Utah
11/13 – SAN DIEGO ST
11/27 – at New Mexico

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 12-1, 31-8 (79%)
Overall ATS: 8-5, 22-15 (59%)
at Home ATS: 3-3, 12-5 (71%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 5-2, 10-10 (50%)
vs Conference ATS: 6-2, 16-7 (70%)
as Favorite ATS: 7-4, 20-13 (61%)
as Underdog ATS: 1-0, 2-1 (67%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 31.92 (77)
Points Scored – Allowed: 38.3 (5) – 12.8 (6)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 455.5 (8) – 239.7 (1)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 6.43 (13) – 3.89 (2)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 5.21 (9) – 2.59 (2)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 8.66 (10) – 5.20 (4)
Turnover Differential: +0.2 (51)

2010 OUTLOOK
TCU’s formerly perfect season ended in a disappointing loss to Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl. But the Horned Frogs dominated the Mountain West Conference on their way to their first Bowl Championship Series appearance, and have established themselves as the team to beat in the league until proven otherwise…In 2009, TCU’s offense caught up to its defense. That’s saying something. If there was a shortcoming for the Horned Frogs’ program under head coach Gary Patterson, it was an inability to roll over opponents with an explosive offense and not rely so much on defense. That changed dramatically, as quarterback Andy Dalton became a highly effective passer to complement the stable of running backs. The Horned Frogs led the Mountain West and ranked seventh in the country in total offense, averaging 455.5 YPG. They should be just as good in 2010. Running backs Matthew Tucker and Ed Wesley return, and Dalton struggled in the Fiesta Bowl, but otherwise had a strong junior seasonThe line features tackle Marcus Cannon and center Jake Kirkpatrick, the only returning finalist for the 2009 Rimington Trophy…TCU will miss end Jerry Hughes and linebacker Daryl Washington, after each were selected in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft. Yet the Horned Frogs never seem to drop off defensively from one year to the next, and their seven returning starters will ensure that they field another formidable unit. Linebacker Tank Carder is the headliner in TCU’s 4-2-5 scheme, and TCU has fielded the country’s top-ranked stop unit four times since 2000…Patterson wonders if this TCU team will be as “hungry” as the 2009 Horned Frogs. TCU’s not shying away from high expectations—a national championship remains a publicized goal. The conference title will likely be decided in November at Utah. Any national aspirations hinge on the season opener at Oregon State in Dallas Cowboys Stadium.

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* TCU is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) at home in conference games since ‘07. The Average Score was TCU 39.8, OPPONENT 10.3

UNLV RUNNIN REBELS
Head Coach: Bobby Hauck, 1st year (First Year SU)
2009 Record: 5-7 SU, 3-8 ATS
Offense: Multiple – Starters Returning: 8
Defense: 4-3 – Starters Returning: 8

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -7.6 (#100 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -8.1 (#99 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 24 (#95 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 – WISCONSIN
9/11 – at Utah
9/18 – at Idaho
9/25 – NEW MEXICO
10/2 – NEVADA
10/9 – at W Virginia
10/16 – at Colorado St
10/30 – TCU
11/6 – at BYU
11/13 – WYOMING
11/18 – AIR FORCE
11/27 – at San Diego St
12/4 – at Hawaii

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 5-7, 12-24 (33%)
Overall ATS: 3-8, 15-20 (43%)
at Home ATS: 2-4, 9-10 (47%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 1-4, 6-10 (38%)
vs Conference ATS: 2-6, 10-14 (42%)
as Favorite ATS: 2-3, 10-8 (56%)
as Underdog ATS: 1-5, 5-12 (29%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 33.25 (70)
Points Scored – Allowed: 24.8 (77) – 32.4 (103)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 351.3 (78) – 456.2 (115)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 5.23 (80) – 6.64 (114)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 3.91 (73) – 5.67 (114)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 6.46 (96) – 7.92 (97)
Turnover Differential: -0.3 (77)

2010 OUTLOOK
UNLV’s program was improving by the end of Mike Sanford’s coaching tenure, but not sufficiently to give him a sixth season. So here comes Bobby Hauck, who will try to do what other highly successful Montana coaches could not do—succeed elsewhere. Mick Dennehy was fired at Utah State and Joe Glenn was fired at Wyoming after posting records similar to Hauck’s 80-17 mark with the Grizzlies. Thanks to Sanford, Hauck will have a better foundation at UNLV…It took him a while, but Sanford eventually made his spread offense reasonably productive. The Rebels ranked fifth in the Mountain West Conference in total offense, averaging 351.3 YPG. As they transition to Hauck’s offense that is more traditional and run-oriented, the Rebels do have some weapons. Among them are quarterback Omar Clayton, who passed for 2,230 yards and 13 touchdowns, running back Channing Trotter. Hauck will keep some elements of the spread, not wanting to make his personnel switch completely to a new scheme. Eight total starters are back on offense…The defensive side of the ball was Sanford’s downfall, and this is also where Hauck’s expertise lies. Sanford repeatedly changed coordinators, only to produce the same dismal results. Last season, the Rebels ranked last in the conference and 115th in the country in total defense, allowing 456.2 YPG. Another eight returning starters will look to turn the tide…Like every other team in the Mountain West, except unbeaten TCU and winless Colorado State, the Rebels were good enough to beat the teams below them in the standings and no match for the teams ahead of them. That’s unlikely to change right away, meaning sixth or seventh place is probably the best Hauck can do in his first season. To make matters worse, the non-conference schedule is challenging. Las Vegas Odds

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* UNLV is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) on the road revenging a home loss against opponent since ‘92. The Average Score was UNLV 20.4, OPPONENT 32.3

UTAH UTES
Head Coach: Kyle Whittingham, 6th year (48-17 SU)
2009 Record: 10-3 SU, 6-7 ATS
Offense: Spread – Starters Returning: 8
Defense: 4-3 – Starters Returning: 4

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +9.6 (#25 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +8.4 (#28 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 46 (#28 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/2 – PITTSBURGH
9/11 – UNLV
9/18 – at New Mexico
9/25 – SAN JOSE ST
10/9 – at Iowa St
10/16 – at Wyoming
10/23 – COLORADO ST
10/30 – at Air Force
11/6 – TCU
11/13 – at Notre Dame
11/20 – at San Diego St
11/27 – BYU

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 10-3, 32-7 (82%)
Overall ATS: 6-7, 21-17 (55%)
at Home ATS: 3-3, 10-7 (59%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-4, 11-10 (52%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-4, 14-10 (58%)
as Favorite ATS: 4-5, 8-13 (38%)
as Underdog ATS: 2-2, 13-4 (76%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 33.69 (67)
Points Scored – Allowed: 29.8 (34) – 20.2 (23)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 389.5 (54) – 315.9 (21)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 5.69 (53) – 4.68 (15)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 4.30 (56) – 3.74 (43)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 7.36 (51) – 5.82 (13)
Turnover Differential: +0.4 (30)

2010 OUTLOOK
Losing three games, and finishing third in the Mountain West Conference, represented a big drop off from Utah’s 13-0 season of 2008 that was topped by a Sugar Bowl victory over Alabama. Then again, posting 10 victories during basically a rebuilding year and extending their bowl winning streak to eight games made the season successful for the Utes. With quarterback Jordan Wynn now an established starter as a sophomore, the Utes expect to challenge TCU for the conference title…Head coach Kyle Whittingham showed he was not satisfied with just getting by last season when the Utes were 6-1. He switched the play-calling assignments within his staff for the eighth game and changed quarterbacks at halftime of that contest. The Utes still lost later in the season at TCU and BYU, but the way the offense played in a Poinsettia Bowl victory over California justified the moves and set up the Utes for big things in 2010. Utah should have an excellent running game to complement Wynn. Caleb Schlauderaff and Zane Taylor will lead a solid offensive line, but the wide receivers are mostly inexperienced…The Utes were vulnerable against the run in their losses to Oregon, TCU and BYU, but they responded with a strong effort against Cal in the Poinsettia Bowl. Utah finished third in the Mountain West in total defense, allowing 315.9 YPG. Utah lost most of its defensive playmakers, but everything suggests that Whittingham and coordinator Kalani Sitake will field another solid unit, led by four returning starters…The Utes play the kind of ambitious non-conference schedule that could either get them some national attention or leave them with a mediocre record. Yet no matter what happens in those games, they should contend for the MWC championship, considering that TCU and BYU will come to Salt Lake City.

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* UTAH is on a 14-1 ATS (+12.9 Units) run at home vs. poor rushing teams – averaging <=120 RYPG . The Average Score was UTAH 41.3, OPPONENT 16.1

WYOMING COWBOYS
Head Coach: Dave Christensen, 2nd year (7-6 SU)
2009 Record: 7-6 SU, 9-3 ATS
Offense: Spread – Starters Returning: 7
Defense: 4-3 – Starters Returning: 7

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -9.0 (#105 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -6.6 (#92 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 25 (#93 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 – S UTAH
9/11 – at Texas
9/18 – BOISE ST
9/25 – AIR FORCE
10/2 – at Toledo
10/9 – at TCU
10/16 – UTAH
10/23 – at BYU
10/30 – SAN DIEGO ST
11/6 – at New Mexico
11/13 – at UNLV
11/20 – COLORADO ST

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 7-6, 16-21 (43%)
Overall ATS: 9-3, 13-21 (38%)
at Home ATS: 3-2, 5-11 (31%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 6-1, 8-10 (44%)
vs Conference ATS: 6-2, 7-16 (30%)
as Favorite ATS: 1-0, 2-8 (20%)
as Underdog ATS: 8-3, 11-13 (46%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 33.69 (68)
Points Scored – Allowed: 18.3 (109) – 27.3 (73)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 309.4 (107) – 392.1 (80)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 4.44 (114) – 5.59 (74)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 3.57 (95) – 4.36 (86)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 5.49 (114) – 7.16 (67)
Turnover Differential: +0.6 (17)

2010 OUTLOOK
All the Cowboys did was beat the bottom four teams in the Mountain West Conference, while struggling offensively against the top four clubs. Yet a .500 record was sufficient to get them into a bowl game, and they gained some credibility with a 35-28, double-overtime victory over Fresno State in the New Mexico Bowl. The Cowboys will try to make another upward move, hoping that their spread offense becomes effective enough for them to knock off a team in the top tier of the league…As a freshman, quarterback Austyn Carta-Samuels used his athletic ability to make plays in Wyoming’s spread offense. Carta-Samuels should become more of a proficient, complete quarterback as he develops in head coach Dave Christensen’s system. Wide receiver David Leonard returns after catching 77 passes, and Christensen believes his team will be improved in the areas of wide receiver and offensive line…The Cowboys lost three linemen, making coordinator Marty English’s move to a 4-3 scheme seem curious. However, shifting linebackers Gabe Knapton and Josh Biezuns to end positions will bolster the line. Brian Hendricks remains a productive linebacker and the Cowboys are solid in the secondary with Chris Prosinski at safety and brothers Tashaun and Marcell Gipson at cornerback…Wyoming will finish 6-6 once again. The Cowboys are easier to pin down than any other Mountain West Conference team, because their non-conference schedule is starkly divided with probable wins over Southern Utah and Toledo and likely losses to Texas and Boise State, and they still fit in the middle of the league. Only if their offense makes huge strides can they hope to upset any of the four teams in front of them and go 7-5 or better.

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* WYOMING is 1-12 ATS vs opponents with revenge.


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12/21/2014
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