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Sat, 10 Jul 2010 02:50 PM EDT

A repeat division champion has never happened in the 8-year history of the NFC South, meaning someone should be ready to replace New Orleans at the top in 2010. After finishing last season on a 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS surge, the Panthers might be asking, why not us? Our 32 NFL teams in 32 days season preview series continues with a look at the 2010 Carolina Panthers. Odds

2009 Record:8-8 (+3.1 ML Units), 9-7 ATS
COACH:John Fox, 9th year (76-60 SU, 71-61 ATS)
STADIUM:Bank of America Stadium
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:60 to 1, NFC Title:28 to 1
StatFox Power Rating:26 (#9 of 32)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating:+2.4 (#12 of 32)

Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 8-8 ~ 27-22 (55%)
ATS: 9-7 ~ 25-22 (53%)
Preseason ATS: 0-4 ~ 3-9 (25%)
Home ATS: 4-4 ~ 12-12 (50%)
Road ATS: 5-3 ~ 13-10 (57%)
Division ATS: 5-1 ~ 11-6 (65%)
Conference ATS: 8-4 ~ 20-15 (57%)
Favorite ATS: 3-3 ~ 12-10 (55%)
Underdog ATS: 6-4 ~ 13-12 (52%)
Over-Under: 6-10 ~ 20-29 (41%)

2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: +0.4 (#16 of 32)
Yardage Differential: +15.0 (#15 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: -0.01 (#18 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: -0.35 (#16 of 32)
Turnover Differential: +6 (#8 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 330.9 (#19 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 315.9 (#8 of 32)

2010 SCHEDULE: Strength – 19.38 (24th toughest of 32)
9/12/10 – at NY Giants, 1:00 PM
9/19/10 – TAMPA BAY, 1:00 PM
9/26/10 – CINCINNATI, 1:00 PM
10/3/10 – at New Orleans, 1:00 PM
10/10/10 – CHICAGO, 1:00 PM
10/24/10 – SAN FRANCISCO, 1:00 PM
10/31/10 – at St Louis, 1:00 PM
11/7/10 – NEW ORLEANS, 1:00 PM
11/14/10 – at Tampa Bay, 1:00 PM
11/21/10 – BALTIMORE, 1:00 PM
11/28/10 – at Cleveland, 1:00 PM
12/5/10 – at Seattle, 4:15 PM
12/12/10 – ATLANTA, 1:00 PM
12/19/10 – ARIZONA, 1:00 PM
12/23/10 – at Pittsburgh, 8:20 PM
1/2/11 – at Atlanta, 1:00 PM

Sample StatFox Power Trend for 2010

  • CAROLINA is on a 9-0 ATS (+9 Units) run at home vs. excellent offensive teams – averaging >=375 YPG The Average Score was CAROLINA 23.3, OPPONENT 16.82010 OUTLOOK
    Despite winning their last three games in dominant fashion, the Panthers watched last season’s playoffs from home after salvaging a disappointing 8-8 campaign. Head coach John Fox is back and faced with the challenges of fixing an unbalanced offense and keeping the defense competitive in the wake of Julius Peppers’ departure. Fox has the league’s most inexperienced group of QB’s following the release of Jake Delhomme, who threw 18 interceptions in 2009. With only eight pro starts under his belt, Matt Moore brings confidence after winning four of five starts a year ago. Pushing him for a starting spot will be Jimmy Claussen (2- Notre Dame). With a dynamic duo of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart in the backfield, it’s no surprise the Panthers had more rushing touchdowns (18) than passing scores (16) and ranked third in the league in rushing offense. If Fox gets the air attack up to speed, the sky is the limit. The receiver corps is of course led by Steve Smith, but he can use help. Up front, tackles Jordan Gross and Jeff Otah set the tone and their health is vital to the unit’s success…Most fans are salty to see Peppers go, and he leaves a void in the defense, no doubt. The jury is out whether or not the returnees can consistently pressure the quarterback. The starting tackle spots are completely up for grabs, but that could be a positive considering opposing rushers averaged 4.4 YPR. In the middle, Jon Beason is among the best in the business, and while Chris Gamble, Richard Marshall, and Sherrod Martin form perhaps the division’s best secondary…The Panthers success in 2010 hinges on QB play since the backfield provides more than its share of offensive fuel. The defense, minus Peppers, will need a few players to pick up where they left off late last season in order for Carolina to challenge for division supremacy. Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 7.5
    StatFox Steve’s Take: Carolina has a very manageable schedule and has shown a penchant for being able to bounce back from non-winning seasons, improving by at least four games from one year to the next in the John Fox era. The Panthers’ play down the stretch of ‘09 was noteworthy. I like this team’s chances to reach the playoffs. OVER.Vegas Odds
  • For a more complete look at the 2010 college and pro football seasons, pick up your copy of our annual football magazine, the StatFox Edge, a 160-page Ultimate Handicapping Resource!

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