NEW YORK YANKEES (27-21)
at SEATTLE MARINERS (24-25)
First pitch: Friday, 10:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Seattle -110, New York +100, Total: 7
The sizzling hot Mariners try to get to .500 when they open a three-game series with the Yankees on Friday night. Seattle has won seven of its past eight contests, and hands the ball to its best pitcher this season, 22-year-old rookie Michael Pineda (6-2, 2.16 ERA), who is riding a 14-inning scoreless streak. Vegas odds.
New York is also playing great baseball with seven wins in its past nine games. The offense is batting .283 and scoring 6.11 runs per game during this stretch, while the pitching staff has a 2.79 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with just three homers allowed in the nine contests. The Yankees send A.J. Burnett (5-3, 4.02 ERA) to the mound to begin the nine-game West Coast road trip. Despite his solid home numbers, Burnett is struggling away from the Bronx with a 5.00 ERA and four homers allowed in 18 road innings. Road woes are nothing new to Burnett who’s now winless in 10 straight starts away from home, carrying an 0-5 record with a 5.82 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. New York has only one victory in these past 10 road starts. Burnett has fared pretty well in his career against Seattle (2-2, 3.83 ERA, 38 K, 10 BB), but the Mariners shelled him last year with 12 hits (2 HR), three walks and six runs in seven innings.
Pineda is one of many Mariners pitchers that have been a roll. In the past eight games, Seattle has three shutouts and held three other teams to one run. Other impressive numbers over this stretch include a 1.63 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 66 K, 19 BB and 4 HR in 72 IP. To be fair, most of these stats have come against two terrible offenses, San Diego and Minnesota. Pineda has also benefitted from an easy schedule facing six current teams with .500 or worse records (Toronto, Kansas City, Oakland, Baltimore, Minnesota and San Diego). In the three games versus teams who currently have winning records (Detroit, Texas twice), Pineda allowed nine runs in 19 innings (4.26 ERA). That being said, he has been extremely tough to hit at Safeco Field this year, going 3-1 with a 1.65 ERA, .196 opponents’ BA and a 7-to-1 K/BB ratio (28 K, 4 BB). And there’s nothing real fluky about 14 straight scoreless innings with 16 strikeouts during the streak. Pineda leads AL qualifying pitchers with 9.41 K/9 innings this season. Betting lines.
The Yankees are a mediocre 10-10 in the past 20 games in Seattle, but they are 6-2 in the past eight meetings overall. They also lead the majors with 75 HR this year, while Seattle has the league’s fewest homers with 27. With both teams being red hot, I’m taking the club with the better offense, and that is clearly underdog New York.
The FoxSheets also back the Yankees with these two highly-rated trends:
Play On – All underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (NY YANKEES) – stranding 6.9 or less runners on base per game on the season against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up no earned runs last outing. (155-123 over the last 5 seasons.) (55.8%, +63.1 units. Rating = 3*). Sports scores.
SEATTLE is 17-47 (26.6%, -32.8 Units) against the money line vs. teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SEATTLE 2.8, OPPONENT 4.7 – (Rating = 3*).