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RAMS HOPE 2009 WAS ROCK BOTTOM
Tue, 03 Aug 2010 06:59 PM EDT

The St. Louis Rams are on a pattern in which they’ve won three games in 2007, two in 2008, and just one a year ago. It doesn’t take a genious to know what comes next if that trend continues. Even still, there is hope on the horizon, and it comes in the form of #1 overall draft pick Sam Bradford, who takes over at quarterback. Head coach Steve Spagnuolo is saying all the right things as well. Could 2010 be a revival for the Rams’ franchise, or are they doomed once again for the NFC West basement? Vegas Odds

ST LOUIS RAMS
2009 Record:1-15 (-12.7 ML Units), 7-9 ATS
DIVISION:NFC West
COACH:Steve Spagnulo, 2nd year (1-15 SU, 7-9 ATS)
STADIUM:Edward Jones Dome
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:100 to 1, NFC Title:50 to 1
StatFox Power Rating:6 (#32 of 32)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating:-16 (#32 of 32)

SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 1-15 ~ 6-42 (13%)
ATS: 7-9 ~ 18-30 (38%)
Preseason ATS: 3-1 ~ 7-5 (58%)
Home ATS: 3-5 ~ 8-16 (33%)
Road ATS: 4-4 ~ 10-14 (42%)
Division ATS: 1-5 ~ 4-14 (22%)
Conference ATS: 5-7 ~ 13-23 (36%)
Favorite ATS: 0-0 ~ 2-2 (50%)
Underdog ATS: 7-9 ~ 16-28 (36%)
Over-Under: 7-9 ~ 20-25 (44%) Betting Lines

2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: -16.3 (#32 of 32)
Yardage Differential: -92.1 (#29 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: -1.36 (#30 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: -12.04 (#32 of 32)
Turnover Differential: -14 (#31 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 280.7 (#29 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 372.8 (#29 of 32)

2010 SCHEDULE: Strength – 18.06 (29th toughest of 32)
DATE – OPPONENT, TIME
9/12/10 – ARIZONA, 4:15 PM
9/19/10 – at Oakland, 4:05 PM
9/26/10 – WASHINGTON, 4:05 PM
10/3/10 – SEATTLE, 1:00 PM
10/10/10 – at Detroit, 1:00 PM
10/17/10 – SAN DIEGO, 1:00 PM
10/24/10 – at Tampa Bay, 1:00 PM
10/31/10 – CAROLINA, 1:00 PM
11/14/10 – at San Francisco, 4:15 PM
11/21/10 – ATLANTA, 4:05 PM
11/28/10 – at Denver, 4:15 PM
12/5/10 – at Arizona, 4:15 PM
12/12/10 – at New Orleans, 4:05 PM
12/19/10 – KANSAS CITY, 1:00 PM
12/26/10 – SAN FRANCISCO, 1:00 PM
1/2/11 – at Seattle, 4:15 PM

Sample StatFox Power Trend for 2010

  • ST LOUIS is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in the first month of the season since ‘07. The Average Score was ST LOUIS 8.8, OPPONENT 29.8

    2010 OUTLOOK
    The Rams finished with a 1-15 mark in 2009 and lost eight of those games by 19 points or more. St. Louis scored the fewest points in the NFL and allowed the second most. Now comes Year Two for HC Steve Spagnuolo, as he tries to fortify a defense that showed a few flashes of potential and build an offense around a premier RB and a QB who was the top overall selection in the draft…St. Louis was 29th in total offense (279.4 YPG), and 32nd in scoring (10.9 PPG). Improvement shouldn’t be much of a challenge. QB Marc Bulger was released, and will be replaced by either journeyman A.J. Feeley or rookie Sam Bradford (1-Oklahoma). The Rams would like to work Bradford in slowly but may not have that luxury. RB Steven Jackson paced the NFC with 1,416 yards rushing. He also had 51 catches and remains the one productive fixture in the offense. Donnie Avery (47 catches, 589 yards, 5 TD’s) will start as one receiver with an open competition for the other. The line is beleaguered and needs to improve…The team’s offense was bad but the defense wasn’t far behind as the Rams finished 29th in total defense (372.8 YPG), and 31st in scoring (27.2 PPG). The line had just 25 sacks, but that may change with the continued maturation of end Chris Long and the addition of tackle Fred Robbins. Second-year LB James Laurinaitis had a standout rookie year and will only get better. The secondary could be a work in progress…The Rams have hit rock bottom and now begin the slow climb back to being competitive. If the offensive line affords Bradford some time and Jackson stays healthy, more points will follow. More stability on the defensive line should also help. Spagnuolo could coax five or six wins out of this team if things break right. Football Odds

    Sportsbook.com Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 5
    StatFox Steve’s Take: I’m not sure a team that was outscored by over 16 PPG in the prior season can rebound enough to even dream of winning four or five more games in the follow-up campaign. As much as I believe the Rams hit rock bottom last year and are headed back up now, winning five games still seems far-fetched. UNDER.

  • For a more complete look at the 2010 college and pro football seasons, pick up your copy of our annual football magazine, the StatFox Edge, a 160-page Ultimate Handicapping Resource!

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