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REVIEWING THE NBA DRAFT BETTING OPTIONS
Wed, 23 Jun 2010 08:06 PM EDT

The annual NBA Draft is Thursday night, and with the drafts in every sport having become a major production of late, there is sometimes information overload. Still, with coverage in excess on a variety of sites across the web and so many experts offering their own “Mock drafts” beforehand, you can usually have a good idea of who will get picked and when going in. Of course, this can lead to betting profits. Let’s take a look at a number of the various betting options Sportsbook.com is showing for Thursday to see if we can’t pick out some line mistakes.

Now, I don’t proclaim to be an expert in the area of draft position, with potential and actual on-the-court production in college often viewed as two different things. Plus, I really know very little about the foreign players that infuse themselves into the draft each summer. Therefore, for the sake of this exercise, I will follow the lead of five different mock drafts I was able to find on the internet on Wednesday. These are popular sites that I refer to regularly to get accurate, updated news, stats, and more.

Let’s get right to the options:

Gordon Hayward – Will He be a Lottery Pick (Picked 1st to 14th)
Yes (Picked 1st to 14th): -250
No (Picked 15th or Later): +175
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: In the five mock drafts, Heyward was picked no higher than 12th and off the lottery board in three of them. I believe coming from Butler will hinder his stock a bit from picking time. NO at +175 for me. Basketball Odds

Patrick Patterson – Will He be a Lottery Pick (Picked 1st to 14th)
Yes (Picked 1st to 14th): -170
No (Picked 15th or Later): +130
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: Patterson was projected as a lottery selection in four of the five mock drafts, averaging about 13th. However, I don’t think he was all that productive in college and while nicely-sized at 6’-8”, isn’t a very good rebounder. NO once again.

James Anderson – Will He be a Lottery Pick (Picked 1st to 14th)
Yes (Picked 1st to 14th): +130
No (Picked 15th or Later): -180
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: I gotta trust the experts on this one. Only one of the mocks had him as a lottery guy, while he slipped to the bottom of the first round in two others. Despite his ability to score, I don’ see anyone taking a chance on him early.

Damion James – Will He be a Lottery Pick (Picked 1st to 14th)
Yes (Picked 1st to 14th): +200
No (Picked 15th or Later): -300
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: For whatever the reason, the four-year college players don’t get anywhere near the respect as those that skip school early. James has a big athletic body but his career just wasn’t quite scintillating enough. NO.

Eric Bledsoe – Will He be a Lottery Pick (Picked 1st to 14th)
Yes (Picked 1st to 14th): +200
No (Picked 15th or Later): -300
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: Did you watch this guy struggle in the tournament shooting the ball? He’s only 6-1 and his offensive skills are limited. NO.

Avery Bradley – Will He be a Lottery Pick (Picked 1st to 14th)
Yes (Picked 1st to 14th): -135
No (Picked 15th or Later): -105
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: I’m somewhat surprised to see the odds on this one, as while Bradley has gotten favorable reviews of late, most projections show him going to Miami at #18. Gotta take a chance on NO at -105.

Wesley Johnson – Over/Under Draft Position
Over 4.5 (+200)
Under 4.5 (-300)
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: Johnson is a very athletic, prototype NBA small forward. His average draft position in the five mocks was 3.8 and in none of them did he drop below 4th. I’ll say he goes to the Nets at #3.

DeMarcus Cousins – Over/Under Draft Position
Over 4.5 (-250)
Under 4.5 (+175)
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: I don’t quite understand why Demarcus Cousins is rated below Derrick Favors on almost every draft board I see, but he is. I’m not going to fight it. I believe it comes down to the two at #4 with the T-Wolves and they go with Favors. OVER 4.5.

Luke Harangody – Will He be a Draft Pick (1st or 2nd Round)
Yes -150
No +110
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: If the draft were based upon college production, Harangody would be a Top 5 pick. Unfortunately for him it’s not, and he is now on the fence for even getting selected. Still, I think his ability to score in a variety of ways, including getting to the line, will be the difference in hearing his name called. YES.

Jon Scheyer – Will He be a Draft Pick (1st or 2nd Round)
Yes -200
No +150
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: Again…this draft is not about what you did in college, it’s about what you can do as a pro. Scheyer is the perfect backup point guard and if Travis Deiner can make it in the NBA for many seasons, Scheyer certainly can. YES.

DaSean Butler – Will He be a Draft Pick (1st or 2nd Round)
Yes -150
No +110
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: It’s unbelievable that a guy of Butler’s stature at West Virginia and in the Big East can be on the bubble for getting drafted but he is small for a forward, not a great shooter, and injured his knee at the Final Four. A NO on this wager.

Sherron Collins – Will He be a Draft Pick (1st or 2nd Round)
Yes -160
No +120
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: Very small but a good shooter and there may not be a better floor general out there. Collins will be drafted.

Scottie Reynolds – Will He be a Draft Pick (1st or 2nd Round)
Yes +175
No -250
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: As big-time as Reynolds was at Villanova over the years, his shooting stroke is somewhat unorthodox and he could be coming in a year that is deep in point guards. I’ll say NO. Basketball Spreads

Samardo Samuels – Will He be a Draft Pick (1st or 2nd Round)
Yes -140
No +100
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: Samuels’ college recruitment and entire career at Louisville was built around the term potential. At 6-8, 245 lbs., Samuels still boasts that potential. The draft is about potential. He gets picked.

Player to get Drafted First
DeMarcus Cousins -200
Greg Monroe +150
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: I can’t see anyone passing on Cousins’ power game in favor of Monroe’s more finesse game. Cousins has a NBA body right now.

Player to get Drafted First
Al-Farouq Aminu -400
Gordon Hayward +250
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: Besides fighting the stigma of being the “slow, white guy”, Heyward is up against a guy that is being described as one of the best athletes in the draft and young as well. If you’re willing to pay the -400, this should be a lock with Aminu.

Player to get Drafted First
Cole Aldrich +130
Ed Davis -180
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: I’ve seen draft boards projecting Ed Davis as high as #7 to the Pistons. I’ve not seen anything showing Aldrich as a top 10. This seems to be a second straight prop where oddsmakers are putting the higher potential black player against the more consistent but not as explosive white guy. Davis is the man.

Player to get Drafted First
Patrick Patterson -300
Eric Bledsoe +200
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: This would seem to be an easy one based upon the price, but Bledsoe came out as a freshman while Patterson had three years at Kentucky. Both have their limitations, but I believe Bledsoe can become a better shooter. Patterson’s size limits him somewhat as a “tweener”. I’d be hesitant about laying the -300.

Player to get Drafted First
Damion James -120
Solomon Alabi -120
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: Good prop here…James is the experienced and somewhat polished player who can step in right away. Alabi is the 7-1 player who could blossom later. If James gets beyond pick #20, Alabi is the winner on this prop, otherwise its James.

Total ACC Players drafted in the 1st Round
Over 4.5 (-130)
Under 4.5 (+100)
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: This prop all hinges on where Gani Lawal or Greivis Vazquez get picked. There’s a good chance one of the two goes in the first round. With Favors, Aminu, Davis, and Alabi certain locks, I’ll go with over 4.5 I guess.

Total BIG East Players drafted in the 1st Round
Over 4.5 (+150)
Under 4.5 (-200)
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: In my opinon, Devin Ebanks of West Virginia is a stretch for the first round and he would be the fourth Big East player chosen behind Johnson, Monroe and Dominique Jones. Under 4.5.

Total Kentucky Players drafted in the Lottery (Picked 1st to 14th)
Over 2.5 (-150)
Under 2.5 (+110)
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: Wall and Cousins are certified lottery players. I don’t believe Patterson or Bledso are. UNDER 2.5 with favorable +110 odds.

Total College Seniors drafted in the 1st Round
Over 2.5 (even)
Under 2.5 (-140)
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: This really is a sad state for college hoops when the best hope for the number of first round seniors to go is three. Vazquez of Maryland and Pondexter of Washington are likely #2 and #3. I don’t think they both go. UNDER 2.5.

Total Duke Players drafted in the 1st and 2nd Round
Over 1.5 (even)
Under 1.5 (-140)
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: Wow…another interesting prop that highlights a problem in college basketball. Two of the main players from the national championship game might not get drafted. I think Scheyer does, Kyle Singler doesn’t. UNDER.

Quincy Pondexter – When Will He be Drafted
1st Round -200
2nd Round or NOT Drafted +150
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: Averaged nearly 20 PPG at Washington and seems to be long enough and a good enough shooter to make himself a name as a scorer in the NBA. Seems worth a first rounder to me.

Lazar Hayward – When Will He be Drafted
1st Round +250
2nd Round or NOT Drafted -400
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: Hayward was on the first round projections of just one of the five experts. His stock has shot up a bit of late with some impressive workouts, but I still believe GM’s will be confused as to where he will play at the pro level. Second round.

Dexter Pittman – When Will He be Drafted
1st Round +225
2nd Round or NOT Drafted -350
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: Haven’t seen a single indicator showing Pittman in the first round, and I don’t think Texas will have three guys chosen in Round one.

Lance Stephenson – When Will He be Drafted
1st Round -140
2nd Round or NOT Drafted +100
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: Having watched this guy a number of times at Cincinnati, I’m puzzled as to why his draft stock isn’t higher. He seems to have a game suited nicely for the pro level. I’ll say 1st round.

Stanley Robinson – When Will He be Drafted
1st Round +130
2nd Round or NOT Drafted -180
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: A guy with size but somewhat lazy. I don’t think teams at the bottom of the draft are looking for that type of player. They can afford to take flyers. Not a first rounder.

2010 NBA Draft – Derrick Favors – He will play his first NBA Regular Season Game for
Nets -150
Any Other Team +110
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: I called for the Nets to take Wesley Johnson earlier so I’ll stick to that. Anyway, even if he does get drafted, trades are more and more common on draft night.

2010 NBA Draft – Wesley Johnson – He will play his first NBA Regular Season Game for
Twolves -115
Any Other Team -125
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: Johnson to the Nets, thus ANY OTHER TEAM.

John Wall – He will play his first NBA Regular Season Game for
Wizards -1000
Any Other Team +550
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: I don’t see why not…However laying -1000 is too rich for my blood.

Evan Turner – He will play his first NBA Regular Season Game for
76ers -300
Any Other Team +200
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: Turner seems to be the consensus #2 pick and with his all-around offensive skills and solid defensive game, Philly would be crazy to trade him. Basketball Lines


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04/16/2014
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Mexico - PrimeraTiburones Rojos at CF Monterrey5:00 PM PST
Mexico - PrimeraFC Puebla at CF Pachuca5:00 PM PST
UFCB TAVARES vs Y Romero5:05 PM PST
Argentina - PrimeraNewell's Old Boys at CA San Lorenzo5:30 PM PST
UFCE Barboza vs D Cerrone5:35 PM PST
UFCL Carmouche vs M Tate6:00 PM PST
Mexico - PrimeraUanl Tigres at Leon6:06 PM PST
UFCF Werdum vs T Browne6:30 PM PST
BOXINGB Shumenov vs B Hopkins6:30 PM PST
USA - MLSPortland Timbers at Real Salt Lake6:30 PM PST
NHLMinnesota Wild vs Colorado Avalanche6:35 PM PST
Costa Rica - Primera DivisionCS Herediano at Limon FC7:00 PM PST
Mexico - PrimeraClub Tijuana at CF Atlante7:00 PM PST
Mexico - PrimeraDeportivo Toluca at Atlas7:00 PM PST
USA - MLSSeattle Sounders at Chivas Usa7:30 PM PST
04/20/2014
Spain - La LigaCelta de Vigo at UD Almeria03:00 AM PST
Spain - Segunda DivisionDeportivo La Coruna at RCD Mallorca03:00 AM PST
England - Premier LeagueLiverpool FC at Norwich City04:00 AM PST
France - Ligue 1OGC Nice at AS Monaco05:00 AM PST
Russia - Premier LeagueFC Krasnodar at FC Dinamo Moscow05:00 AM PST
England - Premier LeagueArsenal FC at Hull City06:05 AM PST
Germany - BundesligaBayer Leverkusen at 1 FC Nuremberg06:30 AM PST
Uruguay - Primera DivisionMdeo. Wanderers FC at CA Rentistas06:30 AM PST
Russia - Premier LeagueCSKA Moscow at FC Kuban Krasnodar07:30 AM PST
Czech - 1. LigaFC Zbrojovka Brno at FK Teplice08:00 AM PST
Czech - 1. Liga1 FK Pribram at SK Sigma Olomouc08:00 AM PST
France - Ligue 1AC Ajaccio at SC Bastia08:00 AM PST
France - Ligue 1EA Guingamp at FC Girondins Bordeaux08:00 AM PST
France - Ligue 1Montpellier Hsc at FC Lorient08:00 AM PST
France - Ligue 1FC Nantes at Valenciennes FC08:00 AM PST
France - Ligue 1FC Sochaux at Stade Reims08:00 AM PST
Spain - La LigaBetis Sevilla at Rayo Vallecano08:00 AM PST
Spain - Segunda DivisionCD Alaves at Recreativo Huelva08:00 AM PST
Spain - Segunda DivisionReal Murcia CF at Sporting Gijon08:00 AM PST
England - Premier LeagueManchester Utd at Everton FC08:10 AM PST
Germany - BundesligaFC Schalke 04 at VfB Stuttgart08:30 AM PST
Spain - Segunda DivisionReal Jaen at Real Zaragoza09:15 AM PST
Czech - 1. LigaSparta Prague at Dukla Prague10:00 AM PST
Mexico - PrimeraGuadalajara Chivas at Unam Pumas10:00 AM PST
Portugal - Primeira LigaSC Olhanense at Benfica Lisbon10:00 AM PST
Spain - La LigaGranada CF at Sevilla FC10:00 AM PST
Chile - PrimeraUniversidad Catolica at Colo Colo11:30 AM PST
Uruguay - Primera DivisionCA Cerro at Miramar Missiones11:30 AM PST
Uruguay - Primera DivisionDefensor Sporting at El Tanque Sisley11:30 AM PST
Uruguay - Primera DivisionLiverpool M. at Juventud de LP11:30 AM PST
Argentina - PrimeraCA Belgrano at Colon de Santa Fe12:00 PM PST
Brazil - Serie ABotafogo RJ at Sao Paulo SP12:00 PM PST
Brazil - Serie AGremio RS at Atletico Paranaense12:00 PM PST
Brazil - Serie ACorinthians SP at Atletico Mineiro MG12:00 PM PST
Brazil - Serie ACruzeiro MG at EC Bahia BA12:00 PM PST
France - Ligue 1Lille Osc at Olympique Marseille12:00 PM PST
Spain - La LigaAthletic Bilbao at FC Barcelona12:00 PM PST
Spain - Segunda DivisionCE Sabadell at Alcorcon AD12:00 PM PST
Bolivia - Liga Profesional BolivianaUniversitario de Sucre at CA Nacional Potosi12:30 PM PST
Costa Rica - Primera DivisionFC Puntarenas at Uruguay de Coronado12:30 PM PST
Argentina - PrimeraRacing Club at Argentinos Jrs1:00 PM PST
Argentina - PrimeraAtletico Lanus at Arsenal de Sarandi1:00 PM PST
Colombia - Liga Postobon IIDeportivo La Equidad at Deportivo Cali1:15 PM PST
Colombia - Liga Postobon IIBoyaca Chico FC at Independiente Medellin1:15 PM PST
Paraguay - Primera DivisionGeneral Diaz at Club Libertad Asuncion1:45 PM PST
Bolivia - Liga Profesional BolivianaSan Jose Oruro at Clube Desportivo Aurora2:00 PM PST
Argentina - PrimeraVelez Sarsfield at River Plate2:15 PM PST
Brazil - Serie AGoias GO at Flamengo RJ2:30 PM PST
Brazil - Serie ASport Recife PE at Santos FC SP2:30 PM PST
Brazil - Serie APalmeiras SP at Criciuma SC2:30 PM PST
Chile - PrimeraNublense at Everton de Vina Del Mar2:30 PM PST
Costa Rica - Primera DivisionSantos de Guapiles at AD Carmelita3:00 PM PST
Costa Rica - Primera DivisionLiga Deportiva Alajuelense at Universidad de Costa Rica3:00 PM PST
Colombia - Liga Postobon IIDeportes Tolima at Millonarios FC3:30 PM PST
Peru - Copa IncaCD San Simon at Alianza Lima3:45 PM PST
Costa Rica - Primera DivisionCD Belen Siglo Xxi at Deportivo Saprissa4:00 PM PST
Paraguay - Primera DivisionClub Guarani at Sol de America4:00 PM PST
Argentina - PrimeraBoca Juniors at CA Tigre5:30 PM PST
Colombia - Liga Postobon IIDeportivo Pasto at Fortaleza FC5:45 PM PST
04/26/2014
BOXINGJ Molina vs L MATTHYSSE6:30 PM PST
BOXINGJ Diaz vs K Thurman7:15 PM PST
05/03/2014
BOXINGM Maidana vs F Mayweather Jr8:00 PM PST
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