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REVIEWING THE NBA DRAFT BETTING OPTIONS
Wed, 23 Jun 2010 08:06 PM EDT

The annual NBA Draft is Thursday night, and with the drafts in every sport having become a major production of late, there is sometimes information overload. Still, with coverage in excess on a variety of sites across the web and so many experts offering their own “Mock drafts” beforehand, you can usually have a good idea of who will get picked and when going in. Of course, this can lead to betting profits. Let’s take a look at a number of the various betting options Sportsbook.com is showing for Thursday to see if we can’t pick out some line mistakes.

Now, I don’t proclaim to be an expert in the area of draft position, with potential and actual on-the-court production in college often viewed as two different things. Plus, I really know very little about the foreign players that infuse themselves into the draft each summer. Therefore, for the sake of this exercise, I will follow the lead of five different mock drafts I was able to find on the internet on Wednesday. These are popular sites that I refer to regularly to get accurate, updated news, stats, and more.

Let’s get right to the options:

Gordon Hayward – Will He be a Lottery Pick (Picked 1st to 14th)
Yes (Picked 1st to 14th): -250
No (Picked 15th or Later): +175
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: In the five mock drafts, Heyward was picked no higher than 12th and off the lottery board in three of them. I believe coming from Butler will hinder his stock a bit from picking time. NO at +175 for me. Basketball Odds

Patrick Patterson – Will He be a Lottery Pick (Picked 1st to 14th)
Yes (Picked 1st to 14th): -170
No (Picked 15th or Later): +130
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: Patterson was projected as a lottery selection in four of the five mock drafts, averaging about 13th. However, I don’t think he was all that productive in college and while nicely-sized at 6’-8”, isn’t a very good rebounder. NO once again.

James Anderson – Will He be a Lottery Pick (Picked 1st to 14th)
Yes (Picked 1st to 14th): +130
No (Picked 15th or Later): -180
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: I gotta trust the experts on this one. Only one of the mocks had him as a lottery guy, while he slipped to the bottom of the first round in two others. Despite his ability to score, I don’ see anyone taking a chance on him early.

Damion James – Will He be a Lottery Pick (Picked 1st to 14th)
Yes (Picked 1st to 14th): +200
No (Picked 15th or Later): -300
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: For whatever the reason, the four-year college players don’t get anywhere near the respect as those that skip school early. James has a big athletic body but his career just wasn’t quite scintillating enough. NO.

Eric Bledsoe – Will He be a Lottery Pick (Picked 1st to 14th)
Yes (Picked 1st to 14th): +200
No (Picked 15th or Later): -300
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: Did you watch this guy struggle in the tournament shooting the ball? He’s only 6-1 and his offensive skills are limited. NO.

Avery Bradley – Will He be a Lottery Pick (Picked 1st to 14th)
Yes (Picked 1st to 14th): -135
No (Picked 15th or Later): -105
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: I’m somewhat surprised to see the odds on this one, as while Bradley has gotten favorable reviews of late, most projections show him going to Miami at #18. Gotta take a chance on NO at -105.

Wesley Johnson – Over/Under Draft Position
Over 4.5 (+200)
Under 4.5 (-300)
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: Johnson is a very athletic, prototype NBA small forward. His average draft position in the five mocks was 3.8 and in none of them did he drop below 4th. I’ll say he goes to the Nets at #3.

DeMarcus Cousins – Over/Under Draft Position
Over 4.5 (-250)
Under 4.5 (+175)
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: I don’t quite understand why Demarcus Cousins is rated below Derrick Favors on almost every draft board I see, but he is. I’m not going to fight it. I believe it comes down to the two at #4 with the T-Wolves and they go with Favors. OVER 4.5.

Luke Harangody – Will He be a Draft Pick (1st or 2nd Round)
Yes -150
No +110
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: If the draft were based upon college production, Harangody would be a Top 5 pick. Unfortunately for him it’s not, and he is now on the fence for even getting selected. Still, I think his ability to score in a variety of ways, including getting to the line, will be the difference in hearing his name called. YES.

Jon Scheyer – Will He be a Draft Pick (1st or 2nd Round)
Yes -200
No +150
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: Again…this draft is not about what you did in college, it’s about what you can do as a pro. Scheyer is the perfect backup point guard and if Travis Deiner can make it in the NBA for many seasons, Scheyer certainly can. YES.

DaSean Butler – Will He be a Draft Pick (1st or 2nd Round)
Yes -150
No +110
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: It’s unbelievable that a guy of Butler’s stature at West Virginia and in the Big East can be on the bubble for getting drafted but he is small for a forward, not a great shooter, and injured his knee at the Final Four. A NO on this wager.

Sherron Collins – Will He be a Draft Pick (1st or 2nd Round)
Yes -160
No +120
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: Very small but a good shooter and there may not be a better floor general out there. Collins will be drafted.

Scottie Reynolds – Will He be a Draft Pick (1st or 2nd Round)
Yes +175
No -250
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: As big-time as Reynolds was at Villanova over the years, his shooting stroke is somewhat unorthodox and he could be coming in a year that is deep in point guards. I’ll say NO. Basketball Spreads

Samardo Samuels – Will He be a Draft Pick (1st or 2nd Round)
Yes -140
No +100
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: Samuels’ college recruitment and entire career at Louisville was built around the term potential. At 6-8, 245 lbs., Samuels still boasts that potential. The draft is about potential. He gets picked.

Player to get Drafted First
DeMarcus Cousins -200
Greg Monroe +150
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: I can’t see anyone passing on Cousins’ power game in favor of Monroe’s more finesse game. Cousins has a NBA body right now.

Player to get Drafted First
Al-Farouq Aminu -400
Gordon Hayward +250
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: Besides fighting the stigma of being the “slow, white guy”, Heyward is up against a guy that is being described as one of the best athletes in the draft and young as well. If you’re willing to pay the -400, this should be a lock with Aminu.

Player to get Drafted First
Cole Aldrich +130
Ed Davis -180
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: I’ve seen draft boards projecting Ed Davis as high as #7 to the Pistons. I’ve not seen anything showing Aldrich as a top 10. This seems to be a second straight prop where oddsmakers are putting the higher potential black player against the more consistent but not as explosive white guy. Davis is the man.

Player to get Drafted First
Patrick Patterson -300
Eric Bledsoe +200
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: This would seem to be an easy one based upon the price, but Bledsoe came out as a freshman while Patterson had three years at Kentucky. Both have their limitations, but I believe Bledsoe can become a better shooter. Patterson’s size limits him somewhat as a “tweener”. I’d be hesitant about laying the -300.

Player to get Drafted First
Damion James -120
Solomon Alabi -120
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: Good prop here…James is the experienced and somewhat polished player who can step in right away. Alabi is the 7-1 player who could blossom later. If James gets beyond pick #20, Alabi is the winner on this prop, otherwise its James.

Total ACC Players drafted in the 1st Round
Over 4.5 (-130)
Under 4.5 (+100)
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: This prop all hinges on where Gani Lawal or Greivis Vazquez get picked. There’s a good chance one of the two goes in the first round. With Favors, Aminu, Davis, and Alabi certain locks, I’ll go with over 4.5 I guess.

Total BIG East Players drafted in the 1st Round
Over 4.5 (+150)
Under 4.5 (-200)
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: In my opinon, Devin Ebanks of West Virginia is a stretch for the first round and he would be the fourth Big East player chosen behind Johnson, Monroe and Dominique Jones. Under 4.5.

Total Kentucky Players drafted in the Lottery (Picked 1st to 14th)
Over 2.5 (-150)
Under 2.5 (+110)
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: Wall and Cousins are certified lottery players. I don’t believe Patterson or Bledso are. UNDER 2.5 with favorable +110 odds.

Total College Seniors drafted in the 1st Round
Over 2.5 (even)
Under 2.5 (-140)
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: This really is a sad state for college hoops when the best hope for the number of first round seniors to go is three. Vazquez of Maryland and Pondexter of Washington are likely #2 and #3. I don’t think they both go. UNDER 2.5.

Total Duke Players drafted in the 1st and 2nd Round
Over 1.5 (even)
Under 1.5 (-140)
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: Wow…another interesting prop that highlights a problem in college basketball. Two of the main players from the national championship game might not get drafted. I think Scheyer does, Kyle Singler doesn’t. UNDER.

Quincy Pondexter – When Will He be Drafted
1st Round -200
2nd Round or NOT Drafted +150
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: Averaged nearly 20 PPG at Washington and seems to be long enough and a good enough shooter to make himself a name as a scorer in the NBA. Seems worth a first rounder to me.

Lazar Hayward – When Will He be Drafted
1st Round +250
2nd Round or NOT Drafted -400
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: Hayward was on the first round projections of just one of the five experts. His stock has shot up a bit of late with some impressive workouts, but I still believe GM’s will be confused as to where he will play at the pro level. Second round.

Dexter Pittman – When Will He be Drafted
1st Round +225
2nd Round or NOT Drafted -350
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: Haven’t seen a single indicator showing Pittman in the first round, and I don’t think Texas will have three guys chosen in Round one.

Lance Stephenson – When Will He be Drafted
1st Round -140
2nd Round or NOT Drafted +100
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: Having watched this guy a number of times at Cincinnati, I’m puzzled as to why his draft stock isn’t higher. He seems to have a game suited nicely for the pro level. I’ll say 1st round.

Stanley Robinson – When Will He be Drafted
1st Round +130
2nd Round or NOT Drafted -180
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: A guy with size but somewhat lazy. I don’t think teams at the bottom of the draft are looking for that type of player. They can afford to take flyers. Not a first rounder.

2010 NBA Draft – Derrick Favors – He will play his first NBA Regular Season Game for
Nets -150
Any Other Team +110
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: I called for the Nets to take Wesley Johnson earlier so I’ll stick to that. Anyway, even if he does get drafted, trades are more and more common on draft night.

2010 NBA Draft – Wesley Johnson – He will play his first NBA Regular Season Game for
Twolves -115
Any Other Team -125
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: Johnson to the Nets, thus ANY OTHER TEAM.

John Wall – He will play his first NBA Regular Season Game for
Wizards -1000
Any Other Team +550
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: I don’t see why not…However laying -1000 is too rich for my blood.

Evan Turner – He will play his first NBA Regular Season Game for
76ers -300
Any Other Team +200
StatFox Steve’s Analysis: Turner seems to be the consensus #2 pick and with his all-around offensive skills and solid defensive game, Philly would be crazy to trade him. Basketball Lines


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08/01/2014
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08/02/2014
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MLBCubs vs Dodgers6:10 PM PST
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08/03/2014
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Germany - 2nd BundesligaHEIDENHEIM vs. FRANKFURT04:30 AM PST
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Intl Clubs - FriendlyMALAGA vs. WEST HAM06:30 AM PST
Norway - EliteserienODD vs. SANDNES06:30 AM PST
Poland - EkstraklasaPODBESKIDZIE vs. R CHORZOW06:30 AM PST
Poland - EkstraklasaS WROCLAW vs. Z BYDGOSZCZ06:30 AM PST
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Latvia - VirsligaVENTSPILS vs. SP JURMALA07:00 AM PST
Latvia - VirsligaJURMALA vs. LIEPAJA07:00 AM PST
Czech - 1. LigaSL LIBEREC vs. PRIBRAM08:00 AM PST
Czech - 1. LigaM BOLESLAV vs. D PRAGUE08:00 AM PST
Denmark Sas LigaenNORDSJÆLLAND vs. ESBJERG08:00 AM PST
Intl Clubs - FriendlyW BREMEN vs. CHELSEA08:00 AM PST
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Intl Clubs - Emirates CupARSENAL vs. MONACO08:20 AM PST
Finland - VeikkausliigaSEINÄJOEN vs. INTER TURKU08:30 AM PST
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Intl Clubs - FriendlySCHALKE 04 vs. NEWCASTLE08:30 AM PST
Slovakia - SuperligaTRENCIN vs. SP TRNAVA08:30 AM PST
Sweden - AllsvenskanELFSBORG vs. AATVIDABERGS08:30 AM PST
Norway - EliteserienAALESUNDS vs. BODØ/GLIMT09:00 AM PST
Norway - EliteserienSARPSBORG vs. HAUGESUND09:00 AM PST
Norway - EliteserienIK START vs. MOLDE09:00 AM PST
Poland - EkstraklasaL POZNAN vs. W KRAKOW09:00 AM PST
Croatia - 1. HNLNK OSIJEK vs. RNK SPLIT10:00 AM PST
Denmark Sas LigaenHOBRO vs. BRØNDBY10:00 AM PST
Mexico - PrimeraDEP TOLUCA vs. UNAM PUMAS10:00 AM PST
Norway - EliteserienSTABAEK vs. ROSENBORG10:00 AM PST
Slovenia - PrvaLigaGORICA vs. LUKA KOPER11:00 AM PST
Argentina - PrimeraINDEPENDIENTE vs. ATL RAFAELA11:15 AM PST
Czech - 1. LigaV PLZEN vs. B JABLONEC11:15 AM PST
Brazil - Serie APALMEIRAS vs. BAHIA SALVADOR12:00 PM PST
Brazil - Serie ACORITIBA vs. CORINTHIANS12:00 PM PST
Brazil - Serie AFIGUEIRENSE vs. SP RECIFE12:00 PM PST
Brazil - Serie ACHAPECOENSE vs. FLAMENGO12:00 PM PST
Croatia - 1. HNLHAJDUK SPLIT vs. SL BELUPO12:00 PM PST
Chile - PrimeraHUACHIPATO vs. COLO COLO12:30 PM PST
Argentina - PrimeraATL LANUS vs. BELGRANO1:00 PM PST
Ecuador - Serie AEL NACIONAL vs. LIGA DE LOJA1:00 PM PST
Ecuador - Serie ALIGA DEP U QUITO vs. MANTA1:00 PM PST
Ecuador - Serie ADEP QUITO vs. IND DEL VALLE1:00 PM PST
Argentina - PrimeraSAN LORENZO vs. OLIMPO B BLANCA1:15 PM PST
Argentina - PrimeraBOCA JRS vs. NEWELL'S2:30 PM PST
Brazil - Serie AFLUMINENSE vs. GOIAS GO2:30 PM PST
Brazil - Serie AATL B HORIZONTE vs. ATLETICO2:30 PM PST
Brazil - Serie AINTERNACIONAL vs. SANTOS2:30 PM PST
Chile - PrimeraAUDAX vs. ATH BARNECHEA3:00 PM PST
Mexico - PrimeraGUADALAJARA vs. LEONES NEGROS3:00 PM PST
USA - MLSHOUSTON D vs. DC UNITED5:00 PM PST
Argentina - PrimeraGIM Y ESG LA PLATA vs. RIVER P5:30 PM PST
USA - MLSCHIVAS USA vs. DALLAS7:00 PM PST
08/04/2014
Finland - VeikkausliigaTURKU PS vs. FF JARO08:30 AM PST
Poland - EkstraklasaG LECZNA vs. BELCHATOW09:00 AM PST
Russia - Premier LeagueT GROZNY vs. AMKAR PERM09:00 AM PST
Denmark Sas LigaenMIDTJYLLAND vs. RANDERS10:00 AM PST
Sweden - AllsvenskanGEFLE vs. MJÄLLBY10:00 AM PST
Sweden - AllsvenskanDJURGARDENS vs. HELSINGBORGS10:00 AM PST
Sweden - AllsvenskanGÖTEBORG vs. AIK SOLNA10:05 AM PST
Croatia - 1. HNLNK ISTRA vs. RIJEKA11:15 AM PST
Germany - 2nd BundesligaKAISERSLAUTERN vs. TSV MÃœNCHEN11:15 AM PST
France - Ligue 2ST BRESTOIS vs. CLERMONT FOOT11:30 AM PST
Argentina - PrimeraTIGRE vs. VELEZ4:30 PM PST
08/05/2014
Intl Clubs - FriendlyWALSALL vs. ASTON VILLA11:30 AM PST
Intl Clubs - FriendlyHUDDERSFIELD vs. NEWCASTLE11:45 AM PST
Brazil - Serie BLUVERDENSE vs. PORTUGUESA3:30 PM PST
Brazil - Serie BJOINVILLE vs. SAMPAIO C5:00 PM PST
Mexico - Copa MXQUERETARO vs. IRAPUATO5:00 PM PST
Mexico - Copa MXSANTOS vs. ATL SAN LUIS5:00 PM PST
Mexico - Copa MXLEO NEGROS vs. MINEROS5:00 PM PST
Mexico - Copa MXATLANTE vs. PUMAS7:00 PM PST
08/06/2014
Brazil - Serie ACHAPECOENSE vs. ATL B HORIZONTE5:00 PM PST
Mexico - Copa MXPUEBLA vs. CELAYA5:00 PM PST
Mexico - Copa MXDEP TOLUCA vs. MERIDA5:00 PM PST
Brazil - Copa do BrasilBAHIA vs. CORINTHIANS6:00 PM PST
08/13/2014
Scotland - PremierP THISTLE vs. ROSS COUNTY11:45 AM PST
Scotland - PremierST MIRREN vs. HAMILTON ACAD11:45 AM PST
08/16/2014
Scotland - PremierCELTIC vs. DUNDEE UTD07:00 AM PST
UFCO St. Preux vs R Bader7:00 PM PST
UFCT Boetsch vs B TAVARES7:00 PM PST
UFCL Murphy vs S McMann7:00 PM PST
UFCJ Formiga vs Z Makovsky7:00 PM PST
UFCF Camoes vs G Maynard7:00 PM PST
UFCA Trujillo vs R Pearson7:00 PM PST
09/04/2014
NFLGreen Bay Packers vs Seattle Seahawks5:30 PM PST
09/07/2014
NFLNew Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons10:00 AM PST
NFLMinnesota Vikings vs St. Louis Rams10:00 AM PST
NFLCleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers10:00 AM PST
NFLJacksonville Jaguars vs Philadelphia Eagles10:00 AM PST
NFLOakland Raiders vs New York Jets10:00 AM PST
NFLCincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens10:00 AM PST
NFLBuffalo Bills vs Chicago Bears10:00 AM PST
NFLWashington Redskins vs Houston Texans10:00 AM PST
NFLTennessee Titans vs Kansas City Chiefs10:00 AM PST
NFLNew England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins10:00 AM PST
NFLCarolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers1:25 PM PST
NFLSan Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys1:25 PM PST
NFLIndianapolis Colts vs Denver Broncos5:30 PM PST
09/08/2014
NFLNew York Giants vs Detroit Lions4:10 PM PST
NFLSan Diego Chargers vs Arizona Cardinals7:20 PM PST
09/13/2014
BOXINGM Maidana vs F Mayweather Jr8:00 PM PST

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