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TOP NEWS
SEC REMAINS COUNTRY’S ELITE LEAGUE IN 2010
Tue, 17 Aug 2010 02:35 PM EDT

The Southeastern Conference is the dominating league in college football. The BCS title results speak for themselves, with Alabama adding the most recent triumph to the list this past January. The bad news for the rest of the power conferences is that this league looks as good as ever heading into 2010. Alabama is the unanimous preseason #1-ranked team, Florida is…well Florida, despite numerous player losses to the NFL, and Georgia, Arkansas, and perhaps LSU, all think they have what it takes to crash the BCS party. We can tell you that there are stars a plenty to watch in the SEC this fall, none brighter than returning Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram. He and Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide will be tested week-in and week-out by the tough SEC slate, so be sure to mark your calendars for key games at Arkansas (9/25), vs. Florida (10/2), and at LSU (11/6). It’s quite possible that matchup with the Gators will be the first of two the teams play this season. Of course, there are plenty of other story lines to keep an eye on in the SEC this fall. How will Tim Tebow’s replacement, John Brantley fare? Can Derek Dooley resurrect a Tennesse program seemingly in shambles? Is LSU ready to return to the elite ranks? For potential answers, read on for a look at each team’s prospects.

2010 Predicted Finish (Sportsbook.com Odds to win conference)
East Division
1. Florida (+250)
2. Georgia (+800)
3. Kentucky (+6600)
4. South Carolina (+2000)
5. Tennessee (+2500)
6. Vanderbilt (+12500)

West Division
1. Alabama (+100)
2. Arkansas (+800)
3. LSU (+1000)
4. Auburn (+800)
5. Mississippi State (+6600)
6. Ole Miss (+3500)

EAST DIVISION

FLORIDA GATORS
Head Coach: Urban Meyer, 6th year (57-10 SU)
2009 Record: 13-1 SU, 7-6 ATS
Offense: Spread – Starters Returning: 6
Defense: Multiple 4-3 – Starters Returning: 5

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +23.4 (#3 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +23.0 (#4 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 62 (#2 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 – MIAMI OHIO
9/11 – S FLORIDA
9/18 – at Tennessee
9/25 – KENTUCKY
10/2 – at Alabama
10/9 – LSU
10/16 – MISSISSIPPI ST
10/30 – vs. Georgia (Jacksonville, FL)
11/6 – at Vanderbilt
11/13 – S CAROLINA
11/20 – APPALACHIAN ST
11/27 – at Florida St

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 13-1, 35-6 (85%)
Overall ATS: 7-6, 26-12 (68%)
at Home ATS: 3-3, 12-6 (67%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 4-3, 14-6 (70%)
vs Conference ATS: 3-6, 16-10 (62%)
as Favorite ATS: 7-6, 25-12 (68%)
as Underdog ATS: 0-0, 1-0 (100%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 40 (25)
Points Scored – Allowed: 35.9 (10) – 12.4 (4)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 457.9 (7) – 252.4 (4)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 6.97 (3) – 4.19 (7)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 5.59 (3) – 3.14 (15)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 9.08 (6) – 5.37 (6)
Turnover Differential: +0.5 (23)

2010 OUTLOOK
The raw numbers suggest that Florida lost only half of its 22 starters from last season’s Sugar Bowl-winning team. Counted among those 11, however, are quarterback Tim Tebow, and linebacker Brandon Spikes, center Maurkice Pouncey, defensive end Carlos Dunlap and cornerback Joe Haden, all off to the NFL. Head coach Urban Meyer appears to have his hands full, right? Not exactly. This is Florida… John Brantley may be the anti-Tebow. Strong-armed and somewhat heavy legged, Brantley is far more a classic drop-back passer than a versatile, tuck-and-run threat. As the Gators transition to more of a conventional passing attack, Brantley will be aided by the return of four starters on the line. If there’s a unit threatening to fly under the radar, it’s the wide receivers. Expect new names to come up big. Remember too, the Gators finished 10th in the nation in rushing, averaging 221.8 YPG…For 12 games, Florida’s defense was nearly impenetrable, ranking fourth in the nation in total defense, fourth in scoring defense and 12th against the run. The Gators just managed to turn in their worst game of the year at the SEC Championship—getting hammered by Alabama, 32-13. How much of a drop off can be expected now that a half-dozen starters, all big contributors, need to be replaced? Not enough to knock Florida off its perch atop the SEC East even with the additional loss of coordinator Charlie Strong…Trying to replace a quarterback that finished 26-2 over his final 28 games, and won a national title, would be enough to cripple most programs. Not Florida, however, which has routinely ranked among the best recruiting teams in the country. It’s simply plug and play for Meyer and the coaching staff, even if it means tweaking the system a little. The Gators’ October battle in Alabama looms as the biggest non-bowl game of the year. Betting Lines

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* Over the L2 seasons, FLORIDA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as road favorites. The Average Score was FLORIDA 33.6, OPPONENT 14.4

GEORGIA BULLDOGS
Head Coach: Mark Richt, 10th year (90-27 SU)
2009 Record: 8-5 SU, 5-7 ATS
Offense: Pro Style – Starters Returning: 10
Defense: Multiple 3-4 – Starters Returning: 5

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +3.0 (#58 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +5.2 (#42 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 49 (#18 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 – LA LAFAYETTE
9/11 – at S Carolina
9/18 – ARKANSAS
9/25 – at Mississippi St
10/2 – at Colorado
10/9 – TENNESSEE
10/16 – VANDERBILT
10/23 – at Kentucky
10/30 – vs. Florida (Jacksonville, FL)
11/6 – IDAHO ST
11/13 – at Auburn
11/27 – GEORGIA TECH

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 8-5, 29-10 (74%)
Overall ATS: 5-7, 17-17 (50%)
at Home ATS: 1-4, 6-9 (40%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 4-3, 11-8 (58%)
vs Conference ATS: 3-5, 9-13 (41%)
as Favorite ATS: 3-4, 13-14 (48%)
as Underdog ATS: 2-3, 4-3 (57%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 41.77 (10)
Points Scored – Allowed: 28.9 (51) – 25.9 (64)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 362.2 (75) – 339.4 (38)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 5.94 (34) – 5.08 (38)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 4.68 (29) – 3.42 (25)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 7.56 (39) – 7.14 (64)
Turnover Differential: -1.2 (118)

2010 OUTLOOK
While the transition from quarterback Matthew Stafford to Joe Cox was a difficult one for Georgia, it was far from the biggest issue that sunk the program to its worst record in head coach Mark Richt’s nine seasons. The defense was the big culprit in an 8-5 campaign, allowing at least 27 points five times. To help remedy the problem, Todd Grantham takes over the defensive coordinator responsibilities…As fall approaches, the Bulldogs’ quarterback position is in its biggest state of flux in years. Several options were out there, including freshman Hutson Mason, a 2009 Parade All-American. At the very least, the new quarterback will be well protected. All five starters return on a line that allowed an Southeastern Conference-best 12 sacks. The backfield will also clearly be a major asset. Wide receiver A.J. Green is a playmaker perhaps unrivaled in the SEC ranks…The stop unit wasn’t just an Achilles’ heel, it became an outright anchor in dragging down what could have been a special season. Five starters are back on a unit that allowed 25.9 PPG and recovered two fumbles (worst in the nation). But their roles could be vastly different under Grantham, who’s installing a 3-4 alignment. The key up front will be unleashing junior Justin Houston…Richt has been one of the most successful coaches in the nation since taking over at Georgia. And reshuffling the defensive coaching staff was a must in the wake of last season’s disaster. The biggest question isn’t how well the new quarterback will fare, because the offensive line and running game will shoulder the workload. It’s how quickly the defense can adapt to Grantham’s new scheme. It’ll be tested early during a streak of three road games in four weeks.

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* GEORGIA is on a 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) skid at home vs. top-level teams (Win Pct. > 75%) . The Average Score was GEORGIA 24.4, OPPONENT 27

KENTUCKY WILDCATS
Head Coach: Joker Phillips, 8th year (First Year SU)
2009 Record: 7-6 SU, 6-6 ATS
Offense: Multiple – Starters Returning: 5
Defense: 4-3 – Starters Returning: 7

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +3.4 (#56 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +4.8 (#45 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 43 (#40 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 – at Louisville
9/11 – W KENTUCKY
9/18 – AKRON
9/25 – at Florida
10/2 – at Ole Miss
10/9 – AUBURN
10/16 – S CAROLINA
10/23 – GEORGIA
10/30 – at Mississippi St
11/6 – CHARLESTON SOUT
11/13 – VANDERBILT
11/27 – at Tennessee

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 7-6, 22-17 (56%)
Overall ATS: 6-6, 18-17 (51%)
at Home ATS: 1-5, 7-12 (37%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 5-1, 11-5 (69%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-4, 10-14 (42%)
as Favorite ATS: 3-2, 7-7 (50%)
as Underdog ATS: 3-4, 11-10 (52%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 38.08 (38)
Points Scored – Allowed: 26.1 (70) – 22.7 (43)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 331.5 (93) – 360.5 (54)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 4.91 (101) – 5.55 (70)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 4.51 (45) – 4.67 (96)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 5.60 (112) – 6.87 (49)
Turnover Differential: +0.2 (51)

2010 OUTLOOK
It’s been a long time since the Kentucky football program entered the season on a roll that included four consecutive bowl appearances—never to be exact. Even though new head coach Joker Phillips enters his first year leading on the sideline, it’s not as if he was plucked off the street. Part of the coaching staff in various positions since 2003, Phillips was most recently the offensive coordinator (2005-09) and returns a stable unit on which the program’s building blocks can continue to be laid…Interestingly, the Wildcats best quarterback no longer plays the position. Instead, Randall Cobb has excelled as a jack-of-all trades, much like former Florida standout Percy Harvin. The junior racked up 573 yards and 10 touchdowns on 93 carries and pulled down 39 receptions for 447 yards and another four scores. Though Cobb saw spot action at quarterback in a hybrid formation and completed 5 of 13 attempts for 89 yards, the full-time duties will be handled by some combination of senior Mike Hartline and sophomore Morgan Newton. The Wildcats deepest positions are easily running back and wide receiver, thanks in large part to Cobb’s versatility. The biggest area of concern is on the line. Junior Stuart Hines is at left guard and the only returning lineman with consistent experience…What the Wildcats lack in returning impact players, they more than make up for with veteran depth on defense. Four All-SEC honorees are gone, but the secondary, in particular, seems well-stocked after picking off 16 passes and allowing just 17 touchdowns…Could Kentucky breakthrough to the upper echelon of the SEC? It’s possible if Locke and Cobb can carry the offense. Will it happen? Only if the Wildcats can steal some games on the road since the home slate is favorable. Consider Kentucky a sleeper.

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* KENTUCKY is 2-10 ATS (-9 Units) at home in conference games since ‘07. The Average Score was KENTUCKY 26.6, OPPONENT 35.2

S CAROLINA GAMECOCKS
Head Coach: Steve Spurrier, 6th year (35-28 SU)
2009 Record: 7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS
Offense: Multiple – Starters Returning: 8
Defense: 4-2-5 – Starters Returning: 7

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +0.2 (#68 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +4.9 (#44 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 43 (#40 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/2 – SOUTHERN MISS
9/11 – GEORGIA
9/18 – FURMAN
9/25 – at Auburn
10/9 – ALABAMA
10/16 – at Kentucky
10/23 – at Vanderbilt
10/30 – TENNESSEE
11/6 – ARKANSAS
11/13 – at Florida
11/20 – TROY
11/27 – at Clemson

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 7-6, 20-18 (53%)
Overall ATS: 7-6, 17-17 (50%)
at Home ATS: 4-3, 10-8 (56%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-3, 7-9 (44%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-4, 12-10 (55%)
as Favorite ATS: 1-3, 8-9 (47%)
as Underdog ATS: 6-2, 9-7 (56%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 41.77 (11)
Points Scored – Allowed: 20.6 (102) – 20.4 (24)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 347.4 (82) – 300.7 (15)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 5.16 (86) – 4.71 (17)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 3.62 (87) – 3.73 (42)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 6.68 (88) – 6.05 (18)
Turnover Differential: -0.3 (81)

2010 OUTLOOK
South Carolina finished above .500 for the fourth time in head coach Steve Spurrier’s five seasons, but the campaign can’t be counted as anything more than a disappointment. The Gamecocks’ program reached new heights with a 16-10 victory over then-No. 4 Ole Miss but they ended the campaign in a free fall that included four losses in the season’s final five games, all by at least 10 points…Spurrier’s quarterback of the future—Stephen Garcia—finally arrived, but with mixed results. He finished second in the SEC with an average of 220.2 PYPG and improved his decision making, throwing just 10 interceptions in 422 attempts despite an inconsistent running game and a line that allowed an SEC-worst 37 sacks. The Gamecocks ranked 91st in the nation and 12th in the SEC averaging 121.2 yards per game on the ground, but things appear to be on the verge of changing for the better. Kenny Miles is back and Spurrier hopes to take advantage of the returning line experience to provide stability. Alshon Jeffrey had a big debut at wideout and is back…The Gamecocks, for the most part, abided by the bend-but-don’t-break philosophy. They allowed more than 30 points to three teams—all on the road—and limited the top two teams in the country (Alabama and Florida) to a combined 44 points in two games. The pass defense was particularly stingy (163.0 yards per game) and ranked eighth in the nation. Three of the four starters in the secondary return…Garcia enters his second year as a starter with an improved ground attack taking some pressure off of him. The SEC schedule, however, doesn’t look any easier. The Gamecocks will again hug the break-even mark at best.

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* S CAROLINA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) on the road in the second half of the season since ‘07. The Average Score was S CAROLINA 15.8, OPPONENT 34.6

TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS
Head Coach: Derek Dooley, 1st year (First Year SU)
2009 Record: 7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS
Offense: Multiple – Starters Returning: 4
Defense: 3-4 – Starters Returning: 6

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +7.1 (#35 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +10.9 (#22 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 42 (#45 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 – TENN-MARTIN
9/11 – OREGON
9/18 – FLORIDA
9/25 – UAB
10/2 – at LSU
10/9 – at Georgia
10/23 – ALABAMA
10/30 – at S Carolina
11/6 – at Memphis
11/13 – OLE MISS
11/20 – at Vanderbilt
11/27 – KENTUCKY

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 7-6, 22-17 (56%)
Overall ATS: 7-6, 19-17 (53%)
at Home ATS: 4-4, 11-10 (52%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-2, 8-7 (53%)
vs Conference ATS: 5-3, 13-9 (59%)
as Favorite ATS: 4-4, 13-10 (57%)
as Underdog ATS: 3-2, 6-7 (46%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 42.15 (7)
Points Scored – Allowed: 29.3 (43) – 22.2 (38)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 383.6 (60) – 318.8 (22)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 5.69 (55) – 4.86 (27)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 4.30 (57) – 4.22 (77)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 7.34 (52) – 5.61 (9)
Turnover Differential: +0.2 (46)

2010 OUTLOOK
Tennessee is in a major state of flux thanks to the defection of coach Lane Kiffin after just one year, and the trail of players and recruits that have either followed him or flat left the Volunteers’ program continues to grow. New head coach Derek Dooley’s job, at least in the short term, is to pick up the remaining pieces and figure out how the new puzzle fits together…Quarterback Matt Simms, of the same bloodline as NFLers Phil (his father) and Chris (brother), is now top dog. Running back Bryce Brown a five-star prospect less than a year ago, ran away from the team prior to start of spring camp despite an opening at the top of the depth chart. Replacing Montario Hardesty’s big production will now come down to a combination of inexperienced players. With all the big losses, it leaves only four starters returning on offense, none up front…Things look bad for the scoring unit, but they appear even worse on defense. While it’s true there are fewer holes to fill, they are in fact much bigger. Safety Eric Berry, linebacker Rico McCoy, and tackle Dan Williams are three major contributors among the five starters being replaced. The run defense posted strong numbers that are sure to inflate due to the influx of new starters and the new scheme implemented by coordinator Justin Wilcox…Rocky Top is perilously close to hitting rock bottom. Dooley may be known as a strong recruiter, but 2010 isn’t the year for that talent to show. It’s going to take time for Tennessee to revitalize itself in the wake of a turbulent offseason that only got worse due to the mass exodus that took place during the spring. It’s going to be a long first year for Dooley in a town that is running short on patience. Football Odds

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* TENNESSEE is on a 2-15 ATS (-14.5 Units) skid at home vs. excellent defensive teams – allowing <=285 YPG . The Average Score was TENNESSEE 19.6, OPPONENT 20.4

VANDERBILT COMMODORES
Head Coach: Bobby Johnson, 9th year (29-66 SU)
2009 Record: 2-10 SU, 4-6-1 ATS
Offense: Spread – Starters Returning: 7
Defense: 4-3 – Starters Returning: 5

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -7.0 (#97 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -7.9 (#98 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 33 (#75 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 – NORTHWESTERN
9/11 – LSU
9/18 – at Ole Miss
10/2 – at Connecticut
10/9 – E MICHIGAN
10/16 – at Georgia
10/23 – S CAROLINA
10/30 – at Arkansas
11/6 – FLORIDA
11/13 – at Kentucky
11/20 – TENNESSEE
11/27 – WAKE FOREST

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 2-10, 14-23 (38%)
Overall ATS: 4-6, 17-17 (50%)
at Home ATS: 0-5, 6-12 (33%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 4-1, 11-5 (69%)
vs Conference ATS: 3-4, 12-11 (52%)
as Favorite ATS: 1-2, 4-7 (36%)
as Underdog ATS: 3-4, 13-10 (57%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 38.42 (36)
Points Scored – Allowed: 16.3 (113) – 23.3 (46)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 307.2 (109) – 362.8 (56)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 4.58 (109) – 5.15 (44)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 4.25 (60) – 4.40 (88)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 5.00 (119) – 6.49 (36)
Turnover Differential: +0.3 (43)

2010 OUTLOOK
It only seems as if Vanderbilt makes annual reservations for last place in the SEC’s East Division and the Commodores have done their fair share to earn the honors on a regular basis. One would expect some improvement over last season’s 2-10 finish, but the way the team was shaping up in the spring, even that may be too optimistic. It also doesn’t help that 10 of 12 opponents are coming off bowl game appearances…There should be nowhere to go but up—well, almost—after Vanderbilt ranked 109th out of 120 FBS schools in total offense and 113th in the scoring department (16.3 PPG). Quarterback Larry Smith struggled mightily with accuracy and will be pushed throughout the summer. If Vanderbilt is going to remain competitive in any game, much less SEC competition, Warren Norman ( 1,941 all-purpose yards), must be the focal point. Ushering in five new offensive linemen won’t help. All three starting wide receivers return but their success is tied directly to the effectiveness of the quarterback and offensive line…The stop unit was legitimately banged up and worn out by the end of the season, often left out to dry by a scoring unit that simply couldn’t move the ball. No SEC defense was on the field more often than Vanderbilt’s stop unit, which averaged nearly 34 minutes per game. Despite being on the field for nearly 850 plays, the unit still managed to allow just 23.3 PPG. Five starters return…Woe is the Vanderbilt fan that has witnessed exactly one bowl berth since 1955. At the rate the program is developing, it may be another 50-plus years before a postseason appearance is secured. If the offense can’t consistently top 20 points, it’ll remain business as usual in the basement of the SEC East.

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* VANDERBILT is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) at home in the second half of the season since ‘07. The Average Score was VANDERBILT 17, OPPONENT 27.9

WEST DIVISION

ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE
Head Coach: Nick Saban, 4th year (33-8 SU)
2009 Record: 14-0 SU, 9-4 ATS
Offense: Multiple – Starters Returning: 8
Defense: 3-4 – Starters Returning: 3

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +20.4 (#5 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +23.4 (#3 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 63 (#1 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 – SAN JOSE ST
9/11 – PENN ST
9/18 – at Duke
9/25 – at Arkansas
10/2 – FLORIDA
10/9 – at S Carolina
10/16 – OLE MISS
10/23 – at Tennessee
11/6 – at LSU
11/13 – MISSISSIPPI ST
11/20 – GEORGIA ST
11/26 – AUBURN

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 14-0, 33-8 (80%)
Overall ATS: 9-4, 21-17 (55%)
at Home ATS: 3-3, 8-10 (44%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 6-1, 13-7 (65%)
vs Conference ATS: 6-3, 14-11 (56%)
as Favorite ATS: 8-4, 17-14 (55%)
as Underdog ATS: 1-0, 4-3 (57%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 41.14 (16)
Points Scored – Allowed: 32.1 (22) – 11.7 (2)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 403.0 (43) – 245.4 (2)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 5.96 (33) – 4.08 (4)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 5.01 (12) – 2.83 (6)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 7.60 (37) – 5.18 (2)
Turnover Differential: +1.4 (4)

2010 OUTLOOK
Alabama football is regarded as one of the most storied programs in the game. The Crimson Tide have 13 national championships under their belt, capturing the most recent just a few months ago under head coach Nick Saban…In some respects, the offense was pulled along by the stellar play of a defense that featured six players selected in the 2010 NFL Draft. But that’s not entirely the case. Greg McElroy was every bit the efficient quarterback necessary in Saban’s system, completing 60.6 percent of his throws with 17 touchdowns and just four interceptions. Junior Mark Ingram became the first Heisman Trophy winner in school history and for good reason. The scary part for opponents is the player behind Ingram on the depth chart, Trent Richardson, could be even better. The more defenses stack up against the run, the more McElroy will have a chance to throw to one of the most under-used weapons in college football—wide receiver Julio Jones. The offensive line welcomes back three starters…Only three starters return from the defense, and there’s plenty of work to be done on all three levels. Six of the seven starters on the line and at linebacker need to be replaced, including Rolando McClain. So where do Saban and coordinator Kirby Smart hang their hats? For one, end Marcell Dareus is on the verge of stardom and two, the secondary features several players ready to make their mark…Many of the talented ‘Bama players have come aboard thanks to Saban’s recruiting. While this strength in numbers could take an entire season to shake out on defense with so many new starters, in terms of wins and losses, the tweaking won’t matter much. Alabama will still be in the thick of the national title race.

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* Over the L2 seasons, ALABAMA is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) on the road when playing on Saturdays. The Average Score was ALABAMA 32.5, OPPONENT 16.2

ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS
Head Coach: Bobby Petrino, 3rd year (13-12 SU)
2009 Record: 8-5 SU, 7-5 ATS
Offense: Multiple – Starters Returning: 9
Defense: 4-3 – Starters Returning: 7

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +10.9 (#21 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +12.5 (#17 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 52 (#11 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 – TENNESSEE TECH
9/11 – LA MONROE (in Little Rock, AR)
9/18 – at Georgia
9/25 – ALABAMA
10/9 – vs. Texas A&M (Arlington, TX)
10/16 – at Auburn
10/23 – OLE MISS
10/30 – VANDERBILT
11/6 – at S Carolina
11/13 – UTEP
11/20 – at Mississippi St
11/27 – LSU (in Little Rock, AR)

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 8-5, 21-17 (55%)
Overall ATS: 7-5, 19-16 (54%)
at Home ATS: 4-2, 11-7 (61%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-3, 8-9 (47%)
vs Conference ATS: 5-3, 14-10 (58%)
as Favorite ATS: 4-3, 9-9 (50%)
as Underdog ATS: 3-2, 10-7 (59%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 40.62 (20)
Points Scored – Allowed: 36.0 (9) – 25.1 (58)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 427.3 (19) – 401.2 (89)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 6.66 (8) – 5.76 (84)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 4.34 (55) – 3.96 (65)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 8.75 (7) – 8.00 (101)
Turnover Differential: +1.2 (6)

2010 OUTLOOK
Looking for a sleeper team on the verge of crashing the Bowl Championship Series party? Keep an eye on Arkansas. The offensive pieces are in place—nine starters are back from a units that averaged 40.7 PPG over its last six games—but the big question is whether the defense is ready to take a step forward…It’s easy to say quarterback Ryan Mallett was worth the wait. After sitting out one season following his transfer from Michigan, the hefty righty led the SEC in passing yards per game (278.9) and touchdown throws (30). He has fully adopted head coach Bobby Petrino’s spread-it-out philosophy, to the benefit of several productive and returning pass catchers. The four returning line starters, led by junior center Seth Oxner and tackle Ray Dominguez, combined to start 46 of a possible 52 games last season and judging by the results form a strong unit. The running attack is just as explosive and diverse as the passing game, and the Razorbacks’ three top backs return…Because the offense seemingly scored at will, many of the sins on defense were either forgiven or flat-out forgotten on most Saturdays. The stop unit was roughed up for more than 150 yards rushing five times and five opponents threw for more than 300 yards in a game. Seven starters return, but there were some heavy losses on both the line and linebacking units that need to be accounted for…There isn’t a team in the SEC or nation for that matter, that Arkansas couldn’t compete with. The Razorbacks are that deep and talented. However, they failed to prove they could hang with the big boys last season, losing three of four games to ranked opponents by a combined 42 points. That must change.

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* ARKANSAS is 7-0 ATS (+7 Units) at home in November games since ‘07. The Average Score was ARKANSAS 40.7, OPPONENT 25.3

AUBURN TIGERS
Head Coach: Gene Chizik, 2nd year (8-5 SU)
2009 Record: 8-5 SU, 6-6 ATS
Offense: Spread – Starters Returning: 7
Defense: Multiple – Starters Returning: 8

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +5.8 (#43 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +8.0 (#29 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 44 (#35 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 – ARKANSAS ST
9/9 – at Mississippi St
9/18 – CLEMSON
9/25 – S CAROLINA
10/2 – LA MONROE
10/9 – at Kentucky
10/16 – ARKANSAS
10/23 – LSU
10/30 – at Ole Miss
11/6 – UT-CHATTANOOGA
11/13 – GEORGIA
11/26 – at Alabama

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 8-5, 22-16 (58%)
Overall ATS: 6-6, 15-20 (43%)
at Home ATS: 5-2, 10-10 (50%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 1-4, 5-10 (33%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-4, 10-14 (42%)
as Favorite ATS: 3-4, 7-13 (35%)
as Underdog ATS: 3-2, 8-7 (53%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 40.46 (23)
Points Scored – Allowed: 33.3 (17) – 27.5 (79)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 431.8 (16) – 374.4 (68)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 6.14 (25) – 5.15 (43)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 5.01 (11) – 4.12 (71)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 7.85 (27) – 6.27 (26)
Turnover Differential: +0.2 (51)

2010 OUTLOOK
Arguing with Auburn’s 8-5 mark might seem petty, but after a 5-0 start so much more was expected. The SEC was particularly tough on the Tigers, though three of the five defeats were by a touchdown or fewer. Moving forward, the difference between eight and 10 wins won’t require an overhaul, just a few tweaks…Forget baby steps. Auburn went into hyperspeed offensively and the proof is in the pudding. Take a look at almost any stat from 2008-09 and there was massive improvement. Scoring was up 16 points to 33.3 per game, and the offense gained nearly 130 additional yards per game. And while several of the key pieces are gone—quarterback Chris Todd and running back Ben Tate—coordinator Gus Malzahn has stockpiled plenty of players that will fit well in the system. Chief among them is former Florida Gator Cameron Newton. Annointed the starter coming out of the spring, the 6-6, 247-pounder is a dual threat who stands to flourish in the spread offense…Consistency plagued Auburn on both sides of the ball, though it was much more apparent on a defense that allowed at least 26 points in five of the last six games. Only three starters need to be replaced though. Solidifying the line is a must because it simply couldn’t stop the run, allowing an average of 156.4 YPG and 25 touchdowns…Instead of being a wolf in sheep’s clothing, Auburn was almost all sheep. While the Tigers appeared to be on the prowl, they were still a few teeth shy of sinking into the meat-and-potatoes portion of the schedule and it showed on both ends of the field. With another year of preparation and experience for the 15 freshman that were thrown to the wolves, Auburn may finally be a sleeper candidate in the SEC West.

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* AUBURN is 6-0 ATS (+6 Units) at home vs. teams with a winning record since ‘07. The Average Score was AUBURN 29, OPPONENT 16.7

LSU TIGERS
Head Coach: Les Miles, 6th year (51-14 SU)
2009 Record: 9-4 SU, 5-7-1 ATS
Offense: Multiple – Starters Returning: 6
Defense: 4-3 – Starters Returning: 4

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +8.6 (#28 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +13.1 (#16 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 51 (#13 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 – vs. N Carolina (Atlanta, GA)
9/11 – at Vanderbilt
9/18 – MISSISSIPPI ST
9/25 – W VIRGINIA
10/2 – TENNESSEE
10/9 – at Florida
10/16 – MCNEESE ST
10/23 – at Auburn
11/6 – ALABAMA
11/13 – LA MONROE
11/20 – OLE MISS
11/27 – at Arkansas (in Little Rock, AR)

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 9-4, 29-11 (73%)
Overall ATS: 5-7, 13-23 (36%)
at Home ATS: 3-3, 6-14 (30%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 2-4, 7-9 (44%)
vs Conference ATS: 3-4, 6-16 (27%)
as Favorite ATS: 3-5, 10-18 (36%)
as Underdog ATS: 2-2, 3-5 (38%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 42.46 (4)
Points Scored – Allowed: 24.8 (76) – 16.2 (11)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 304.5 (112) – 327.6 (26)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 5.13 (89) – 4.68 (14)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 3.67 (85) – 3.51 (31)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 7.03 (68) – 6.07 (19)
Turnover Differential: +0.3 (35)

2010 OUTLOOK
The SEC promises to be a roller coaster ride from the opening game, and no team brings more questions to the table than LSU. Will the Tigers take the next step with junior quarterback Jordan Jefferson? Can the ground attack bounce back?…While all the questions surrounding LSU aren’t exactly limited to the offense, it’s here where head coach Les Miles has to find the biggest answers as soon as possible after it ranked 112th in the nation. Jefferson comes off a solid first full season as a starter (2,166 yards passing, 17 touchdowns, seven interceptions), but one thing is certain for him to grow: The running attack must perform better than 90th in the nation. It has the potential to be explosive. But whether or not a return of the dominant running attack happens for the Tigers depends on a line that’s been shuffled more than a deck of cards. Plus, if Jefferson can get some protection, he’ll be able to utilize a talented core of wide receivers led by Terrance Tolliver…On an annual basis, LSU finds its defense raided by the NFL, yet the Tigers still manage to put together an elite, unit. Despite replacing seven starters from a defense that ranked 26th best in the nation, there’s a chance the 2010 version could be even better thanks to one word—speed…Can LSU make a run in the SEC West and in turn, squeeze its way into a BCS Bowl? In a word—yes. For that to happen, Jefferson and the offense need big plays and consistency in both running and passing the ball. Sounds simple, but in reality that is what knocked the Tigers from the SEC elite in the first place. The defense has a number of new starters, but Miles always seems to recruit well on that side of the ball.

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* LSU is on a 7-28 ATS (-23.8 Units) skid at home in November games . The Average Score was LSU 26.4, OPPONENT 20.8

MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS
Head Coach: Dan Mullen, 2nd year (5-7 SU)
2009 Record: 5-7 SU, 6-5 ATS
Offense: Spread – Starters Returning: 7
Defense: 4-3 – Starters Returning: 8

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -1.2 (#76 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +4.6 (#48 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 41 (#48 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 – MEMPHIS
9/9 – AUBURN
9/18 – at LSU
9/25 – GEORGIA
10/2 – ALCORN ST
10/9 – at Houston
10/16 – at Florida
10/23 – UAB
10/30 – KENTUCKY
11/13 – at Alabama
11/20 – ARKANSAS
11/27 – at Ole Miss

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 5-7, 17-20 (46%)
Overall ATS: 6-5, 16-18 (47%)
at Home ATS: 3-3, 7-9 (44%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-2, 9-9 (50%)
vs Conference ATS: 5-3, 12-12 (50%)
as Favorite ATS: 1-1, 2-6 (25%)
as Underdog ATS: 5-4, 14-12 (54%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 43.17 (2)
Points Scored – Allowed: 25.6 (72) – 26.8 (71)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 371.9 (65) – 366.0 (58)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 5.44 (68) – 5.67 (77)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 4.92 (15) – 3.96 (66)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 6.51 (93) – 7.95 (99)
Turnover Differential: -0.4 (87)

2010 OUTLOOK
Head coach Dan Mullen instantly added some street credibility to the Mississippi State football program by knocking off rival Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl, and hanging tough with Florida, Houston, and LSU. To advance the Bulldogs from five wins to a bowl-bound program, however, is going to take a lot more than a growing reputation…If there’s one thing MSU excelled at in Mullen’s debut, it was running the ball. The offense led the SEC, and finished ninth nationally, averaging 227.6 YPG. But there’s a problem. The featured back in that powerhouse attack, Anthony Dixon, is in the NFL. The problem now is two-fold: Any regression by the ground attack means relying on a passing attack that is still a major work in progress. Junior Chris Relf ended spring camp atop the quarterback depth chart but may be a better runner than passer. Four starters return along the line, which is a positive given the previous success of the ground attack. It also bodes well for the transition at quarterback. Because of the struggles under center, wide receivers didn’t get many opportunities to shine…One glaring weakness on the stop unit was a lack of pressure, and Mullen hopes the addition of new coordinator Manny Diaz will help ruffle the feathers of opposing quarterbacks. Mississippi State ranked 104th in the nation with 20 sacks and 89th in tackles for loss. Diaz has eight returning starters to work with… It seems somewhat amazing that Mississippi State finished just one win shy of a bowl game in Mullen’s debut. The defense gave up a ton of points (26.8 PPG), while the offense was a one-trick pony. Still, too many things need to go right for the Bulldogs to take the next step under Mullen and earn a bowl berth. Basketball Odds

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* MISSISSIPPI ST is on a 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) skid at home in non-conference games . The Average Score was MISSISSIPPI ST 31.9, OPPONENT 19.2

OLE MISS REBELS
Head Coach: Houston Nutt, 3rd year (18-8 SU)
2009 Record: 9-4 SU, 7-5 ATS
Offense: Pro Set – Starters Returning: 3
Defense: Multiple 4-3 – Starters Returning: 6

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +11.8 (#19 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +9.3 (#27 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 48 (#20 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 – JACKSONVILLE ST
9/11 – at Tulane
9/18 – VANDERBILT
9/25 – FRESNO ST
10/2 – KENTUCKY
10/16 – at Alabama
10/23 – at Arkansas
10/30 – AUBURN
11/6 – LA LAFAYETTE
11/13 – at Tennessee
11/20 – at LSU
11/27 – MISSISSIPPI ST

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 9-4, 21-17 (55%)
Overall ATS: 7-5, 22-13 (63%)
at Home ATS: 4-2, 12-6 (67%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-3, 10-7 (59%)
vs Conference ATS: 3-5, 13-11 (54%)
as Favorite ATS: 6-4, 9-8 (53%)
as Underdog ATS: 0-1, 12-5 (71%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 35.62 (56)
Points Scored – Allowed: 29.5 (39) – 17.7 (15)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 403.5 (41) – 315.8 (20)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 5.97 (31) – 4.74 (19)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 4.78 (22) – 3.92 (56)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 7.54 (40) – 5.71 (10)
Turnover Differential: -0.5 (102)

2010 OUTLOOK
Head coach Houston Nutt may have looked the part of a magician in his first two years on the sideline, but it’s in 2010 where he may have to use some real smoke and mirrors. The offense lost eight starters, many of them the key components to a scoring unit that averaged 29.5 points and 403.5 yards per game…Quarterback Jevan Snead, running back Dexter McCluster and wide receiver Shay Hodge led Ole Miss in nearly every major statistical category. All three have moved on to the NFL. Snead’s replacement, whoever that ends up being, shoulders a heavy load, since even after losing McCluster, the backfield may still be Ole Miss’ deepest area. A late summer move finds Oregon’s Jeremiah Masoli transferring in and eligible for the 2010 season, which would prove to be a huge boost. There’s also talent at wideout. The faster the skill position players get up to speed, the better it will be for everyone, because the line is a work in progress…Aside from a 41-27 loss to Mississippi State, the stop unit was spectacular. Only one other opponent scored more than 23 points—Auburn—and the pass defense allowed just 11 touchdowns, while the run defense gave up just 3.92 yards per carry. That good news stands to get even better, thanks to the return of six starters and the addition of a pair of impactful junior-college transfers—safety Damien Jackson and end Wayne Dorsey…Even with the rebuilding on offense, expectations are high in Oxford. How could they not be after Nutt engineered consecutive top 20 finishes in his first two seasons. Judging by Nutt’s prior home runs at Arkansas, and even at Ole Miss, it’s only a matter of time before he puts the offensive puzzle together. A brutal October, which includes road trips to Alabama and Arkansas, will determine whether the Rebels steady their ship at nine wins or fall back a step.

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* Over the L2 seasons, OLE MISS is 7-0 ATS (+7 Units) in non-conference games. The Average Score was OLE MISS 41.3, OPPONENT 15.2


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Bolivia - Liga Profesional BolivianaJ WILSTERMANN vs. NAC POTOSI11:00 AM PST
Portugal - Primeira LigaNAC MADEIRA vs. SPORTING11:15 AM PST
Italy - Serie AINTER vs. LAZIO11:45 AM PST
Bolivia - Liga Profesional BolivianaBLOOMING vs. BOLIVAR12:00 PM PST
France - Ligue 1G BORDEAUX vs. O LYONNAIS12:00 PM PST
Peru - PrimeraSP CRISTAL vs. JUAN AURICH12:00 PM PST
Spain - La LigaATH BILBAO vs. ATL MADRID12:00 PM PST
NFLGiants vs Rams1:05 PM PST
NFLBills vs Raiders1:25 PM PST
NFLColts vs Cowboys1:25 PM PST
Chile - PrimeraSANTIAGO WAND vs. PALESTINO1:30 PM PST
Colombia - Liga Postobon IIIND SANTA FE vs. IND MEDELLIN2:30 PM PST
Ecuador - Serie AEMELEC vs. BARCELONA5:00 PM PST
NFLSeahawks vs Cardinals5:30 PM PST
12/22/2014
Italy - SupercoppaJUVENTUS vs. NAPOLI09:00 AM PST
Greece - Super LeaguePANATHINAIKOS vs. AOK KERKYRA09:30 AM PST
Israel - Premier LeagueB JERUSALEM vs. H BEER SHEVA10:55 AM PST
College FootballBYU vs Memphis11:00 AM PST
Portugal - Primeira LigaSP BRAGA vs. P FERREIRA11:00 AM PST
England - Premier LeagueSTOKE vs. CHELSEA12:00 PM PST
Portugal - Primeira LigaRIO AVE vs. BELENENSES1:00 PM PST
NFLBroncos vs Bengals5:30 PM PST
12/23/2014
College FootballNorthern Illinois vs Marshall3:00 PM PST
College FootballNavy vs San Diego State6:30 PM PST
12/24/2014
College FootballCentral Michigan vs Western Kentucky09:00 AM PST
College FootballFresno State vs Rice5:00 PM PST
12/26/2014
College FootballIllinois vs Louisiana Tech10:00 AM PST
College FootballRutgers vs North Carolina1:30 PM PST
College FootballNC State vs Central Florida5:00 PM PST
12/27/2014
College FootballVirginia Tech vs Cincinnati10:00 AM PST
College FootballDuke vs Arizona State11:00 AM PST
College FootballMiami Florida vs South Carolina12:30 PM PST
College FootballPenn State vs Boston College1:30 PM PST
College FootballNebraska vs USC5:00 PM PST
12/29/2014
College FootballWest Virginia vs Texas A&M11:00 AM PST
College FootballClemson vs Oklahoma2:30 PM PST
College FootballTexas vs Arkansas6:00 PM PST
12/30/2014
College FootballNotre Dame vs LSU12:00 PM PST
College FootballLouisville vs Georgia3:30 PM PST
College FootballMaryland vs Stanford7:00 PM PST
12/31/2014
College FootballMississippi vs TCU09:30 AM PST
College FootballBoise State vs Arizona1:00 PM PST
College FootballGeorgia Tech vs Mississippi State5:00 PM PST
01/01/2015
College FootballWisconsin vs Auburn09:00 AM PST
College FootballMichigan State vs Baylor09:30 AM PST
College FootballMinnesota vs Missouri10:00 AM PST
College FootballFlorida State vs Oregon2:00 PM PST
College FootballOhio State vs Alabama5:30 PM PST
01/02/2015
College FootballPittsburgh vs Houston09:00 AM PST
College FootballIowa vs Tennessee12:20 PM PST
College FootballUCLA vs Kansas State3:45 PM PST
College FootballOklahoma State vs Washington7:15 PM PST
01/03/2015
College FootballEast Carolina vs Florida09:00 AM PST
01/04/2015
College FootballToledo vs Arkansas State6:00 PM PST

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