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TEMPLE FAVORED TO CLAIM FIRST MAC CROWN
Mon, 16 Aug 2010 02:08 PM EDT

The Mid-American Conference will have a different look in 2010 than what college football fans have become accustomed to, if for no other reason than the turnover that has occurred at Central Michigan. The Chippewas have been the class of the league the last few seasons but gone for this fall are four-year starting quarterback Dan LeFevour as well as head coach Butch Jones, who became CMU’s second straight head man to leave for Cincinnati. West Division opponents are ready to pounce and teams like Northern Illinois and Toledo have their eyes on the prize. Ball State could be much-improved. In the East, which appears from all intensive purposes to be the stronger division, Temple and Ohio U. go into the season as the favorites. They tied for the division championship last season, although the Bobcats represented in the title game. Both clubs lost their bowl games and are hungry for more. Kent State could prove to be a surprise, and don’t be caught off guard if Miami Ohio takes a big step forward, as clubs like Bowling Green and Buffalo are starting anew for various reasons. Odds

2010 Predicted Finish
East Division
1. Temple
2. Ohio U
3. Kent State
4. Miami Ohio
5. Buffalo
6. Bowling Green
7. Akron

West Division
1. Northern Illinois
2. Toledo
3. Ball State
4. Western Michigan
5. Central Michigan
6. Eastern Michigan

EAST DIVISION

AKRON ZIPS
Head Coach: Rob Ianello, 1st year (First Year SU)
2009 Record: 3-9 SU, 4-8 ATS
Offense: Pro-Style – Starters Returning: 6
Defense: 4-3 – Starters Returning: 8

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -9.5 (#108 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -11.8 (#111 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 18 (#111 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 – SYRACUSE
9/11 – GARDNER WEBB
9/18 – at Kentucky
9/25 – at Indiana
10/2 – N ILLINOIS
10/9 – at Kent St
10/16 – at Ohio U
10/23 – W MICHIGAN
10/30 – at Temple
11/6 – at Ball St
11/17 – MIAMI OHIO
11/26 – BUFFALO

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 3-9, 12-24 (33%)
Overall ATS: 4-8, 16-18 (47%)
at Home ATS: 2-4, 7-8 (47%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 2-4, 9-10 (47%)
vs Conference ATS: 2-6, 8-14 (36%)
as Favorite ATS: 1-2, 5-5 (50%)
as Underdog ATS: 3-6, 11-12 (48%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 28.92 (101)
Points Scored – Allowed: 19.3 (106) – 28.8 (87)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 300.9 (113) – 367.7 (59)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 4.91 (102) – 5.30 (52)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 3.62 (89) – 4.29 (82)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 6.40 (98) – 6.67 (40)
Turnover Differential: -0.4 (87)

2010 OUTLOOK
Akron hasn’t had a winning season since 2005, and after an injury-plagued campaign in which it went a dismal 3-9 overall and 2-6 in the Mid-American Conference, J.D. Brookhart and his entire staff was fired. Rob Ianello, the former assistant head coach/wide receiver coach/recruiting coordinator at Notre Dame under Charlie Weis, was hired for his first head coaching stint…Ianello brings with him a pro-style attack, and the person who will be in charge of it is still unknown. It figures to be either junior Matt Rodgers or sophomore Patrick Nicely, both of whom started at times last season. The receiving crew figures to see a changed role, and the running game will have a more prominent spot in the offense as well, now that Akron no longer runs the spread. The line returns three starters…New coordinator Curt Mallory, who came to Akron from Illinois, will have eight returning starters to work with. The Zips will now feature a 4-3 scheme instead of the 3-3-5 used under Brookhart. The linebacker corps should be the strength of the unit with the return of two starters in sophomore Brian Wagner and senior Mike Thomas…Not much is expected in Year One of the Ianello era at Akron, so the Zips should live up to expectations. An improvement over last year’s three-win total would be an accomplishment, but it is going to take some time before Akron can even get to the .500 mark. Scores

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* AKRON is on a 4-18 ATS (-15.8 Units) skid as road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points . The Average Score was AKRON 18, OPPONENT 39.6

BOWLING GREEN FALCONS
Head Coach: Dave Clawson, 2nd year (7-6 SU)
2009 Record: 7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS
Offense: Multiple – Starters Returning: 3
Defense: Multiple – Starters Returning: 4

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +1.0 (#64 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +0.8 (#66 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 30 (#85 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 – at Troy
9/11 – at Tulsa
9/18 – MARSHALL
9/25 – at Michigan
10/2 – BUFFALO
10/9 – at Ohio U
10/16 – at Temple
10/23 – KENT ST
10/30 – at C Michigan
11/10 – MIAMI OHIO
11/17 – at Toledo
11/26 – W MICHIGAN

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 7-6, 21-17 (55%)
Overall ATS: 7-6, 22-15 (59%)
at Home ATS: 3-3, 6-9 (40%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 4-3, 16-6 (73%)
vs Conference ATS: 5-3, 15-9 (63%)
as Favorite ATS: 4-3, 11-10 (52%)
as Underdog ATS: 3-3, 11-5 (69%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 29.77 (92)
Points Scored – Allowed: 28.5 (55) – 27.5 (76)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 402.7 (44) – 398.2 (87)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 5.48 (64) – 6.02 (98)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 3.13 (109) – 5.36 (110)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 6.90 (78) – 6.82 (47)
Turnover Differential: +0.3 (35)

2010 OUTLOOK
In his first season as head coach at Bowling Green, Dave Clawson led the Falcons to a 7-6 campaign and their second straight bowl berth. But of the 19 lettermen lost going into the 2010 season, 18 were starters, including four All-Mid American Conference honorees. With so many key losses, can Clawson work his magic again and get the Falcons back to the postseason?…The Falcons boasted the best passing offense in the league (316.2 YPG, #6 nationally), but the main catalysts of that dynamic aerial attack are gone—All-MAC third-team quarterback Tyler Sheehan and Biletnikoff Award finalist and All-MAC first-team receiver Freddie Barnes, who caught an NCAA-record 155 passes. Perhaps Clawson’s toughest job this offseason was to find Sheehan’s replacement. That man had not been named as of spring. However, that’s just one part of the job as many other holes are left to be filled, including three new starters up front…The defense got better as last season went along, but coordinator Mike Elko will almost have to start from scratch again with only four starters returning. The line returns three players with starting experience…It was a huge accomplishment for the Falcons to make it to a bowl game last year considering they were predicted to finish fifth in their division. Can lightning strike twice? It’s highly doubtful. Bowling Green suffered too many significant losses to believe it can make it to the .500 mark this year.

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* BOWLING GREEN is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in November games since ‘07. The Average Score was BOWLING GREEN 36.3, OPPONENT 20.8

BUFFALO BULLS
Head Coach: Jeff Quinn, 1st year (First Year SU)
2009 Record: 5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS
Offense: Multiple – Starters Returning: 5
Defense: 4-3 – Starters Returning: 8

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +0.6 (#67 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -2.3 (#76 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 30 (#85 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/2 – RHODE ISLAND
9/11 – at Baylor
9/18 – UCF
9/25 – at Connecticut
10/2 – at Bowling Green
10/16 – at N Illinois
10/23 – TEMPLE
10/30 – MIAMI OHIO
11/4 – at Ohio U
11/12 – BALL ST
11/20 – E MICHIGAN
11/26 – at Akron

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 5-7, 18-20 (47%)
Overall ATS: 5-7, 21-17 (55%)
at Home ATS: 2-4, 7-10 (41%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-3, 14-7 (67%)
vs Conference ATS: 3-5, 15-10 (60%)
as Favorite ATS: 1-4, 4-9 (31%)
as Underdog ATS: 3-3, 15-8 (65%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 27.92 (105)
Points Scored – Allowed: 24.1 (82) – 23.5 (48)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 405.4 (39) – 342.7 (42)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 5.82 (42) – 5.21 (48)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 4.52 (43) – 4.07 (70)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 7.22 (56) – 6.30 (29)
Turnover Differential: -0.6 (103)

2010 OUTLOOK
Buffalo’s quest for a third straight MAC East title fell far short as the Bulls finished fifth in the division with a 3-5 mark. Nevertheless, head coach Turner Gill, who in four years turned the Bulls into a perennial MAC title contender, took off to greener pastures at Kansas. It took the school little time to hire Jeff Quinn, who was last seen on the sideline at Cincinnati, where he served as offensive coordinator. Quinn is no stranger to the MAC, having served as Central Michigan’s offensive boss under Brian Kelly…Quinn will have some work to do with an offense that loses standouts at wide receiver and tight end, as well as the starting quarterback. With the departure of Zach Maynard, Quinn will have to find a new signal-caller from an inexperienced bunch. Sophomore Jerry Davis is No. 1 on the depth chart. The line returns four starters, including All-MAC second-team guard Peter Bittner…New coordinator William Inge came over with Quinn from Cincinnati, where he served as linebackers coach. He’ll have most of last year’s starters back, including the entire linebacker corps. The unit is led by senior Justin Winters, who followed up a 2008 All-MAC campaign with 79 tackles, seven for loss, and 4.5 sacks…The loss of stud RB James Starks early last season likely knocked the Bulls out of title contention, but the silver lining is his replacements got much needed playing experience. If the backfield does its job, and Davis is the right guy at quarterback, Buffalo can get back to contending for the East Division crown.

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* BUFFALO is on a 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) skid against Big East conference opponents . The Average Score was BUFFALO 10.9, OPPONENT 34.5

KENT STATE GOLDEN FLASHES
Head Coach: Doug Martin, 7th year (24-46 SU)
2009 Record: 5-7 SU, 7-4 ATS
Offense: Spread – Starters Returning: 9
Defense: 3-4 – Starters Returning: 7

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -3.2 (#83 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -9.4 (#103 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 25 (#93 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/2 – MURRAY ST
9/11 – at Boston College
9/18 – at Penn St
10/2 – at Miami Ohio
10/9 – AKRON
10/16 – at Toledo
10/23 – at Bowling Green
10/30 – BALL ST
11/6 – TEMPLE
11/13 – ARMY
11/20 – at W Michigan
11/26 – OHIO U

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 5-7, 12-24 (33%)
Overall ATS: 7-4, 12-19 (39%)
at Home ATS: 4-1, 5-8 (38%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-3, 7-11 (39%)
vs Conference ATS: 6-2, 10-12 (45%)
as Favorite ATS: 3-1, 5-7 (42%)
as Underdog ATS: 4-3, 7-11 (39%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 25.67 (117)
Points Scored – Allowed: 19.3 (106) – 22.4 (40)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 327.7 (96) – 356.3 (51)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 5.00 (99) – 4.97 (31)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 3.50 (101) – 3.65 (39)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 6.51 (94) – 6.42 (33)
Turnover Differential: -0.2 (72)

2010 OUTLOOK
Kent State hasn’t finished over the .500 mark since 2001, but with 16 starters returning, plus former leading rusher Eugene Jarvis back from injury, the Golden Flashes are poised to finish with their best record in the Doug Martin era…Heading into last season, there was a huge hole to fill with the departure of star quarterback Julien Edelman. But a new standout was quick to emerge as Spencer Keith took over and proceeded to set school freshman records for passing yards (2,147) and touchdowns (14) despite starting seven games before suffering a shoulder injury. The running game will be the team’s strength and should be one of the better units in the league. In fact, most of the yardage leaders in both rushing and receiving are back for 2010, as are three starting linemen…Seven starters return to a much-improved stop unit, including the team’s top six tacklers. Leading the way is All-MAC first-team linebacker Cobrani Mixon. When considering the secondary, the Golden Flashes could feature one of the strongest defensive backfields in the conference…Kent State has a nice mix of up-and-coming stars on offense and veteran talent on defense. If the Golden Flashes can get through a tough schedule that sees them play five of six games on the road early on, they can cruise in the latter half of the campaign in which they play four of their last five contests at home.

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* KENT ST is on a 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) run vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more TOP minutes/game . The Average Score was KENT ST 32.4, OPPONENT 28.2

MIAMI OHIO REDSKINS
Head Coach: Michael Haywood, 2nd year (1-11 SU)
2009 Record: 1-11 SU, 5-7 ATS
Offense: Multiple – Starters Returning: 9
Defense: 4-3 – Starters Returning: 9

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -18.6 (#112 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -14.4 (#112 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 17 (#112 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 – at Florida
9/11 – E MICHIGAN
9/18 – COLORADO ST
9/25 – at Missouri
10/2 – KENT ST
10/9 – at Cincinnati
10/16 – at C Michigan
10/23 – OHIO U
10/30 – at Buffalo
11/10 – at Bowling Green
11/17 – at Akron
11/23 – TEMPLE

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 1-11, 9-28 (24%)
Overall ATS: 5-7, 15-20 (43%)
at Home ATS: 3-2, 6-8 (43%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 2-5, 9-12 (43%)
vs Conference ATS: 3-5, 9-14 (39%)
as Favorite ATS: 0-0, 1-5 (17%)
as Underdog ATS: 5-7, 14-14 (50%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 34.33 (65)
Points Scored – Allowed: 15.6 (116) – 34.2 (108)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 343.5 (84) – 377.3 (70)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 4.65 (108) – 5.83 (89)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 2.39 (119) – 4.89 (104)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 6.14 (105) – 7.19 (70)
Turnover Differential: -2 (120)

2010 OUTLOOK
Not much was expected from the RedHawks in 2009, considering they had a new coach, a new system and a ton of new players, and they lived up to expectations. But a one-win campaign in head coach Michael Haywood’s debut means that it shouldn’t be difficult to show improvement, at least in the standings…The RedHawks couldn’t run (70.1 YPG, #119 nationally),or score (15.6 PPG, 116th in the nation), but out of the misery came a bright spot in quarterback Zac Dysert. As a redshirt freshman, Dysert started nine games and threw for 2,611 yards and 12 touchdowns. His 16 interceptions are a concern, but he should decrease his mistakes with a year’s worth of experience under his belt. Dysert’s top two targets are back in seniors Armand Robinson and Jamal Rogers. The entire starting line returns to pave the road…The stop unit gave up 34.2 PPG, and most of the damage was done on the ground, where the RedHawks gave up 186.9 YPG. The linebacker corps should be the strength of the 2010 defense and three of the four primary starters in the secondary are back to a unit that helped the RedHawks rank second in the MAC in pass defense (190.4 YPG)…It would be hard to think that the RedHawks would suffer as many injuries this season as last year. If the team stays healthy, and Dysert continues to improve his game and cuts down on the interceptions, Miami (Ohio) is sure to win a few more games.

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* MIAMI OHIO is on a 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) run vs. good teams (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) . The Average Score was MIAMI OHIO 30.3, OPPONENT 22.6

OHIO U BOBCATS
Head Coach: Frank Solich, 6th year (32-31 SU)
2009 Record: 9-5 SU, 9-5 ATS
Offense: Multiple – Starters Returning: 6
Defense: 4-3 – Starters Returning: 7

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +3.5 (#53 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +2.0 (#59 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 31 (#81 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 – WOFFORD
9/11 – TOLEDO
9/18 – at Ohio St
9/25 – at Marshall
10/2 – at E Michigan
10/9 – BOWLING GREEN
10/16 – AKRON
10/23 – at Miami Ohio
10/30 – LA LAFAYETTE
11/4 – BUFFALO
11/16 – at Temple
11/26 – at Kent St

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 9-5, 19-19 (50%)
Overall ATS: 9-5, 22-13 (63%)
at Home ATS: 4-2, 9-6 (60%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 5-3, 13-7 (65%)
vs Conference ATS: 7-2, 14-10 (58%)
as Favorite ATS: 3-4, 6-7 (46%)
as Underdog ATS: 5-1, 14-6 (70%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 27.07 (111)
Points Scored – Allowed: 24.8 (78) – 21.3 (28)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 311.5 (106) – 349.3 (45)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 5.09 (94) – 4.89 (28)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 3.50 (102) – 3.92 (55)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 6.90 (77) – 6.09 (20)
Turnover Differential: +0.9 (7)

2010 OUTLOOK
Ohio comes off a 2009 campaign in which it represented the East Division in the MAC Championship after sharing the division title with Temple. But the Bobcats ended the season on a two-game losing streak, with setbacks against Central Michigan in the league title game and Marshall in the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl. Head coach Frank Solich and crew are still looking for the program’s first bowl victory…Senior quarterback Boo Jackson, who set school records for passing yards, touchdown passes and total offense in 2008, redshirted last year after suffering a season-ending shoulder injury in the second game and is back. The running game will need to improve after averaging just 112 YPG. The receiving corps should be solid, as will be the line, with three starters returning, including both tackles…The stop unit was one of the better groups in the league, ranking second in scoring (21.3 PPG) and first in turnovers gained by a wide margin with 37. The front four remains intact, and is joined by three other returning starters behind them…Perhaps the biggest question mark in all of the MAC is the health of Boo Jackson. If he’s ready to go, the Bobcats will once again contend for the East Division title. But if he isn’t on the field, Ohio could be a step or two behind Temple and maybe even a couple of other teams.

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* OHIO U is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) as road underdogs since ‘07. The Average Score was OHIO U 22.7, OPPONENT 26.6

TEMPLE OWLS
Head Coach: Al Golden, 5th year (19-30 SU)
2009 Record: 9-4 SU, 8-4 ATS
Offense: East Coast – Starters Returning: 9
Defense: 4-3 – Starters Returning: 7

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +7.2 (#34 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +3.9 (#50 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 36 (#62 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/3 – VILLANOVA
9/11 – C MICHIGAN
9/18 – CONNECTICUT
9/25 – at Penn St
10/2 – at Army
10/9 – at N Illinois
10/16 – BOWLING GREEN
10/23 – at Buffalo
10/30 – AKRON
11/6 – at Kent St
11/16 – OHIO U
11/23 – at Miami Ohio

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 9-4, 18-19 (49%)
Overall ATS: 8-4, 23-12 (66%)
at Home ATS: 3-2, 10-5 (67%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 5-2, 13-7 (65%)
vs Conference ATS: 5-3, 15-8 (65%)
as Favorite ATS: 5-3, 7-5 (58%)
as Underdog ATS: 3-1, 15-7 (68%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 25 (119)
Points Scored – Allowed: 29.5 (39) – 22.3 (39)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 333.5 (92) – 334.0 (33)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 5.22 (82) – 5.08 (39)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 4.41 (49) – 3.22 (16)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 6.80 (83) – 7.01 (55)
Turnover Differential: +0.3 (35)

2010 OUTLOOK
In his first three seasons as head coach at Temple, Al Golden’s Owls amassed 10 wins combined. In 2009, they nearly matched that win total with a 9-4 mark and the MAC East Division co-championship. Golden earned conference Coach of the Year honors for his efforts, and with 16 starters back, he could make it two in a row…Temple lost just two players on offense, both All-MAC honorees, but the Owls still are stacked with talent and experience. It all starts with running back Bernard Pierce, who comes off a season in which he rushed for 1,361 yards and 16 touchdowns. The Owls’ East Coast offense features three wide receivers and a tight end, and the team is deep at both positions. Throwing to that group once again will be the duo of senior Vaughn Charlton and junior Chester Stewart. The line, which was voted the team’s offensive MVP last year, returns four starters…The stop unit boasted five All-MAC first-team honorees and four of them are back. Two of those players come from the line, arguably the best in the conference, led by MAC Defensive Player of the Year Adrian Robinson…Expect Temple to be back in the MAC title race. The defense could be even better, and Pierce should be an even greater force. A late September trip to Penn State will be tough, but if the Owls don’t lose their composure, they could make plans for a trip to Detroit for the league title game. Las Vegas Odds

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* Over the L2 seasons, TEMPLE is 7-0 ATS (+7 Units) revenging a road loss against opponent. The Average Score was TEMPLE 22.3, OPPONENT 14.6

WEST DIVISION

BALL STATE CARDINALS
Head Coach: Stan Parrish, 2nd year (2-11 SU)
2009 Record: 2-10 SU, 6-6 ATS
Offense: Multiple – Starters Returning: 10
Defense: 4-3 – Starters Returning: 7

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -9.0 (#105 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -9.1 (#102 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 22 (#101 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/2 – SE MISSOURI ST
9/11 – LIBERTY
9/18 – at Purdue
9/25 – at Iowa
10/2 – at C Michigan
10/9 – W MICHIGAN
10/16 – E MICHIGAN
10/23 – at Toledo
10/30 – at Kent St
11/6 – AKRON
11/12 – at Buffalo
11/20 – N ILLINOIS

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 2-10, 21-18 (54%)
Overall ATS: 6-6, 21-15 (58%)
at Home ATS: 1-5, 6-8 (43%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 5-1, 15-7 (68%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-4, 13-10 (57%)
as Favorite ATS: 0-2, 10-8 (56%)
as Underdog ATS: 6-3, 11-6 (65%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 25.33 (118)
Points Scored – Allowed: 19.2 (108) – 28.2 (82)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 295.3 (114) – 386.7 (77)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 4.74 (105) – 5.58 (73)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 4.44 (47) – 3.96 (63)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 5.15 (118) – 7.62 (91)
Turnover Differential: -0.6 (103)

2010 OUTLOOK
Talk about a reversal of fortune. One year after going 12-2, and winning the MAC West Division title, Ball State won just two games under Stan Parrish, who began his head coaching stint with a loss in the previous year’s GMAC Bowl and then with seven straight losses to begin 2009. There’s really nowhere to go but up for the Cardinals…Replacing 2008 MAC Offensive Player of the Year Nate Davis at quarterback was going to be a tough job, and freshman Kelly Page was given the shot from the get-go. He threw for 1,019 yards, seven touchdowns and nine interceptions in seven games before going down with a thumb injury. Since his replacement, Tanner Justice, is gone, the job is Page’s to lose. Fifth-year senior MiQuale Lewis comes off an All-MAC second-team campaign as running back and both of his primary spot fillers are in place as well. The Cardinals’ top three wide receivers—juniors Briggs Orsbon, Toreal Gibson and Daniel Ifft return too, as do all five starters along the line…Five of the team’s top six tacklers return to a unit that allowed 386.7 YPG and 28.2 PPG. The group will be run by a new coordinator, as former linebackers coach Jay Hood was promoted to coordinator shortly thereafter…The Cardinals should get off to a better start since they start the season with home games against Southeast Missouri State and Liberty. But MAC wins will be harder to come by again. Expect better, but how much remains to be seen.

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* BALL ST is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in September games since ‘07. The Average Score was BALL ST 32.8, OPPONENT 25.8

C MICHIGAN CHIPPEWAS
Head Coach: Dan Enos, 1st year (First Year SU)
2009 Record: 12-2 SU, 9-4-1 ATS
Offense: Multiple – Starters Returning: 6
Defense: Multiple – Starters Returning: 5

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +15.0 (#11 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +9.8 (#25 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 39 (#56 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/2 – HAMPTON
9/11 – at Temple
9/18 – at E Michigan
9/25 – at Northwestern
10/2 – BALL ST
10/9 – at Virginia Tech
10/16 – MIAMI OHIO
10/23 – at N Illinois
10/30 – BOWLING GREEN
11/5 – W MICHIGAN
11/13 – at Navy
11/26 – at Toledo

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 12-2, 28-13 (68%)
Overall ATS: 9-4, 22-15 (59%)
at Home ATS: 4-0, 9-3 (75%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 5-4, 13-12 (52%)
vs Conference ATS: 6-2, 15-8 (65%)
as Favorite ATS: 6-3, 13-6 (68%)
as Underdog ATS: 2-1, 8-9 (47%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 27.21 (108)
Points Scored – Allowed: 33.9 (13) – 18.9 (17)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 423.9 (23) – 344.2 (43)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 5.96 (32) – 5.13 (42)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 4.55 (37) – 3.66 (40)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 7.48 (46) – 6.61 (39)
Turnover Differential: +0.4 (32)

2010 OUTLOOK
Central Michigan became the first Mid-American Conference team to appear in bowl games in four consecutive years after the Chippewas dominated the league with a 8-0 MAC record, 12-2 overall, a 20-10 win over Ohio in the championship game, and a 44-41 double-overtime victory over Troy in the GMAC Bowl. But Central Michigan’s success enabled Butch Jones to leave for greener pastures of a BCS school, Cincinnati. Former Michigan State assistant Dan Enos takes over a program that returns 11 starters, but loses the MAC’s best player in quarterback Dan LeFevour…Replacing LeFevour is this year’s biggest job in the MAC, and taking over behind center will be sophomore Ryan Radcliff. LeFevour’s favorite target, Antonio Brown, is also gone after hauling in 110 passes for 1,198 yards and nine touchdowns as has Bryan Anderson, an All-MAC second-teamer. Most of the line is back, but that might not offset the skill position void…The offense got most of the accolades in the undefeated MAC campaign, but the defense wasn’t too shabby, either. The unit led the conference in scoring (18.9 PPG). The linebacker corps should be the strength of the 2010 defense, which returns five starters…Year One of the Enos era is certainly not going to be as good as the last season under Jones. Radcliff is an unknown commodity at quarterback, and the wide receiver corps is green. But there seems to be enough talent to believe that Central Michigan shouldn’t be counted out of a fifth straight bowl appearance.

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* C MICHIGAN is on a 18-3 ATS (+14.7 Units) run in all games where the total is between 49.5 and 56 . The Average Score was C MICHIGAN 32.8, OPPONENT 23.7

E MICHIGAN EAGLES
Head Coach: Ron English, 2nd year (0-12 SU)
2009 Record: 0-12 SU, 4-8 ATS
Offense: Multiple – Starters Returning: 6
Defense: Multiple – Starters Returning: 6

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -21.8 (#118 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -21.5 (#118 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 11 (#118 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 – ARMY
9/11 – at Miami Ohio
9/18 – C MICHIGAN
9/25 – at Ohio St
10/2 – OHIO U
10/9 – at Vanderbilt
10/16 – at Ball St
10/23 – at Virginia
10/30 – TOLEDO
11/13 – at W Michigan
11/20 – at Buffalo
11/26 – N ILLINOIS

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 0-12, 7-29 (19%)
Overall ATS: 4-8, 12-22 (35%)
at Home ATS: 1-4, 3-9 (25%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-4, 9-13 (41%)
vs Conference ATS: 2-6, 9-14 (39%)
as Favorite ATS: 0-1, 0-3 (0%)
as Underdog ATS: 4-7, 12-20 (38%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 30.17 (87)
Points Scored – Allowed: 16.4 (112) – 38.3 (117)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 278.6 (116) – 426.9 (105)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 4.48 (113) – 6.85 (117)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 3.61 (90) – 6.34 (120)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 5.58 (113) – 8.04 (105)
Turnover Differential: -0.3 (77)

2010 OUTLOOK
Ron English’s first season as head coach at Eastern Michigan was a disaster. The Eagles came into the campaign as a young and inexperienced team, and a rash of injuries forced even younger players to step in. That resulted in a winless season but it’s hard to believe that could happen again, especially since those youngsters now have a year’s worth of experience under their belts…English was forced to use three quarterbacks because of injury and inconsistency, and the last of the trio, sophomore Alex Gillett, gets the starting nod this season. He is a dual threat, passing and running. Senior Dwayne Priest returns as the primary ball carrier after rushing for 633 yards and seven touchdowns. The receiving corps isn’t anything to write home about and much of last year’s limited production is gone. The line boasts three returnees as starters…The stop unit, which ranked dead last in the conference in yardage and scoring defense, has a new coordinator in Phil Snow, who comes off a four-year stint as linebackers coach of the NFL’s Detroit Lions. The defense returns six full-time starters, and the line seems to have the most depth…Can the Eagles go winless for a second straight season? It’s not out of the question. They figure to be underdogs in each of their games and with no clear-cut all-conference-type players on the roster, it would be a very bold prediction if we were to say that EMU would finish anywhere but the bottom of the West Division.

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* E MICHIGAN is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) after playing its last game on the road since ‘07. The Average Score was E MICHIGAN 21.5, OPPONENT 35.7

N ILLINOIS HUSKIES
Head Coach: Jerry Kill, 3rd year (13-13 SU)
2009 Record: 7-6 SU, 6-6-1 ATS
Offense: Multiple – Starters Returning: 6
Defense: 4-3 – Starters Returning: 8

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +7.0 (#37 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +1.4 (#65 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 32 (#78 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/2 – at Iowa St
9/11 – N DAKOTA
9/18 – at Illinois
9/25 – at Minnesota
10/2 – at Akron
10/9 – TEMPLE
10/16 – BUFFALO
10/23 – C MICHIGAN
10/30 – at W Michigan
11/9 – TOLEDO
11/20 – at Ball St
11/26 – at E Michigan

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 7-6, 15-23 (39%)
Overall ATS: 6-6, 17-18 (49%)
at Home ATS: 4-2, 8-7 (53%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 2-4, 9-11 (45%)
vs Conference ATS: 3-4, 10-12 (45%)
as Favorite ATS: 3-4, 6-10 (38%)
as Underdog ATS: 2-2, 10-8 (56%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 25.85 (116)
Points Scored – Allowed: 28.6 (54) – 21.6 (30)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 346.0 (83) – 332.8 (31)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 5.59 (61) – 5.45 (65)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 4.81 (20) – 3.94 (61)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 7.12 (63) – 7.14 (65)
Turnover Differential: +0.5 (22)

2010 OUTLOOK
Northern Illinois has been to bowl games in each of Jerry Kill’s first two seasons as head coach. But the Huskies failed to win both and are 0-11 against teams with winning records under Kill. Fourteen starters return…The big question mark is the health of quarterback Chandler Harnish. The junior has been plagued with injuries the last two campaigns and he may not be 100 percent after putting off knee surgery and sitting out most of spring drills. In 10 games last year, Harnish completed 143 of 223 passes for 1,670 yards, 11 touchdowns and six interceptions. Senior tailback Chad Spann emerged as one of the best running backs in the conference, despite starting just four games. The All-MAC first-teamer rushed for 1,038 yards and a conference-leading 19 touchdowns, but was limited during the spring as he recovered from shoulder surgery. NIU will be mostly starting fresh at wide receiver and tight end. The line suffered significant losses in the departures of two All-MAC first-teamers but three other starters return…The stop unit was the best in the MAC, allowing 332.8 YPG. Eight starters return, including several that are getting preseason all-conference type recognition… The defense should remain solid, and Spann is a MAC Offensive Player of the Year candidate. So, the key to the success of the Huskies will be Harnish. If he stays healthy, they could win the West Division crown. And if he doesn’t, they still could make it to another bowl game.

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* Over the L2 seasons, N ILLINOIS is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) vs. teams with a winning record. The Average Score was N ILLINOIS 18.8, OPPONENT 31.9

TOLEDO ROCKETS
Head Coach: Tim Beckman, 2nd year (5-7 SU)
2009 Record: 5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS
Offense: Spread – Starters Returning: 6
Defense: Multiple – Starters Returning: 6

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -8.0 (#101 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -10.2 (#106 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 22 (#101 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/3 – ARIZONA
9/11 – at Ohio U
9/18 – at W Michigan
9/25 – at Purdue
10/2 – WYOMING
10/9 – at Boise St
10/16 – KENT ST
10/23 – BALL ST
10/30 – at E Michigan
11/9 – at N Illinois
11/17 – BOWLING GREEN
11/26 – C MICHIGAN

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 5-7, 13-23 (36%)
Overall ATS: 5-7, 15-20 (43%)
at Home ATS: 3-2, 10-7 (59%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 2-5, 5-13 (28%)
vs Conference ATS: 3-5, 10-14 (42%)
as Favorite ATS: 2-2, 6-3 (67%)
as Underdog ATS: 3-5, 9-16 (36%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 30.17 (88)
Points Scored – Allowed: 29.7 (38) – 37.7 (116)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 437.9 (13) – 407.4 (95)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 6.16 (23) – 5.77 (85)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 4.69 (27) – 4.73 (98)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 7.52 (42) – 6.78 (46)
Turnover Differential: -0.8 (111)

2010 OUTLOOK
When your head coach is a rookie, all you can ask for is improvement from the previous campaign, and that’s what Toledo got as the Rockets won five games in Tim Beckman’s first season. But three of the team’s top players—quarterback Aaron Opelt, running back DaJuane Collins and safety Barry Church—are gone, leaving some huge holes to fill…The Rockets led the MAC in total offense (437.9 YPG), thanks in large part to the efforts of Opelt. He missed three games due to injury, though, and that allowed then-true freshman Austin Dantin to start and earn valuable playing time. Dantin threw for 962 yards, four touchdowns and four interceptions. Despite the loss of Collins, the backfield will be deep. The offensive star will likely be sophomore wide receiver Eric Page, a second-team All-MAC honoree who led all freshmen in the country with 82 catches for 1,159 yards. Four starters return to the line…The stop unit finished 11th in the MAC in total defense (407.4 YPG) and that was with four-time All-MAC first-teamer Church in the lineup. Without him, the onus of improvement falls on six returning starters, headlined by third-team All-MAC honoree Archie Donald…With a tough non-conference schedule on tap, too many big holes to fill on both sides of the ball and a number of players returning from injury-plagued campaigns, it won’t be easy for Toledo to match last year’s five-win total. Look for the Rockets to take a step back in Beckman’s sophomore season.

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* TOLEDO is on a 21-6 ATS (+14.4 Units) run as favorites of 3.5 to 10 points . The Average Score was TOLEDO 34.5, OPPONENT 20.6

W MICHIGAN BRONCOS
Head Coach: Bill Cubit, 6th year (34-27 SU)
2009 Record: 5-7 SU, 3-9 ATS
Offense: Multiple – Starters Returning: 7
Defense: 4-3 – Starters Returning: 7

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -2.8 (#81 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -7.2 (#94 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 23 (#98 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 – at Michigan St
9/11 – NICHOLLS ST
9/18 – TOLEDO
10/2 – IDAHO
10/9 – at Ball St
10/16 – at Notre Dame
10/23 – at Akron
10/30 – N ILLINOIS
11/5 – at C Michigan
11/13 – E MICHIGAN
11/20 – KENT ST
11/26 – at Bowling Green

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 5-7, 19-18 (51%)
Overall ATS: 3-9, 10-24 (29%)
at Home ATS: 1-4, 3-10 (23%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 2-5, 7-14 (33%)
vs Conference ATS: 3-5, 7-15 (32%)
as Favorite ATS: 2-2, 5-12 (29%)
as Underdog ATS: 1-6, 4-11 (27%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 25 (120)
Points Scored – Allowed: 24.7 (80) – 27.5 (77)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 385.3 (57) – 419.7 (101)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 5.30 (74) – 5.96 (94)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 3.82 (76) – 4.69 (97)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 6.26 (101) – 7.46 (83)
Turnover Differential: -0.5 (98)

2010 OUTLOOK
Western Michigan took a step back in the first season of head coach Bill Cubit’s five-year contract, which he signed last offseason. The Broncos had been to two bowl games in three years, but they failed to reach the .500 mark for the second time under Cubit…Heading into the 2010 campaign, Cubit will be focused on replacing his two biggest offensive stars—quarterback Tim Hiller and running back Brandon West, and both earned All-MAC second-team honors, so filling their spots won’t be easy. Sophomore Alex Carder, who saw action in nine games as Hiller’s backup but went just 5-for-7 for 27 yards, is expected to start at quarterback. Carder will have a deep receiving corps to throw to and replacing West in the backfield will be junior Aaron Winchester and redshirt freshman Brian Fields. The line returns four starters, including All-MAC second-team tackle Anthony Parker…Only Eastern Michigan allowed more total yards than Western Michigan (419.7 per game), and the Broncos lose their top tackler in All-MAC second-team linebacker Austin Pritchard. Seven starters are back though, so expect this unit to be better… With Hiller and West, the Broncos weren’t able to make it to .500, and the non-conference schedule—Michigan State and Notre Dame on the docket—is just as tough as last year’s. With an inexperienced quarterback, Western Michigan is more likely to take another step downward rather than make it back into the West Division title race.

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* W MICHIGAN is on a 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) skid vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better . The Average Score was W MICHIGAN 23.3, OPPONENT 33.7


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