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THE GRIZZLIES ARE 18-8 ATS WHEN 65% OR MORE BETS GO AGAINST THEM.
Tue, 22 Mar 2011 05:37 PM EDT


Last week’s column focused on majority betting in the NBA and this week we will examine majority fading, or betting against certain teams. Below is our breakdown of games when at least 65% of the bets were for one team. At the end of this column is an Over/Under dissection. All numbers are through Monday, Feb. 21 and are all ATS results. Games that finished as Pushes were not included in this study.

ATS BETTING

In examining bets when at least 65% of the bets go to one team, we first took a look at home teams.

Vast Majority (65% or more) bets Home Team
Total: 61 wins, 73 losses (46%)

Records by Spread
Favored by 3 or less: 4-5 (44%)
Favored by 3.5 to 6.5: 26-22 (54%)
Favored by 7 to 9.5: 17-30 (36%)
Favored by 10 or more: 14-16 (47%)
In this category, favorites of at least seven points are having a harder time covering at 31-46 (40%).

We then examined 65% Majority bets for road teams, we found that favorites of at least seven points are having a much easier time than home teams, covering these bets at 18-12 (60%). Vegas odds.

Vast Majority (65% or more) bets Road Team
Total: 154 wins, 136 losses (52%)

Records by Spread
Road Teams Overall: 154-142 (52%)
Road Team Underdogs: 44-36 (55%)
Road favorites of 3 or less: 46-36 (56%)
Road favorites of 3.5 to 6.5: 46-58 (44%)
Road favorites of 7 or more: 18-12 (60%)

Next we broke down these records team-by-team. Predictably, the majority of bettors fade the really bad teams, and rarely bet against the NBA elite. Eight teams have six or fewer majority bets (65%) against them this year — L.A. Lakers 0, Miami 1, Atlanta 5, Chicago 5, Oklahoma City 5, Boston 6, Dallas 6 and San Antonio 6. This group represents eight of the nine best SU records in the league (Spurs 1, Celtics 2, Heat 3, Mavericks 4, Bulls 5, Lakers 6, Thunder 7, Hawks 9). The Magic have the eighth best SU record and they only have seven majority fades this season. Now we’ll break down the teams that bettors most love to bet against in droves.

Teams with MOST Majority Fades (65% bet against)
Sacramento 31 (14-17 ATS)
Washington 29 (13-16 ATS)
New Jersey 27 (14-13 ATS)
Memphis 26 (18-8 ATS)
Minnesota 25 (14-11 ATS)

The Kings, Wizards, Nets and Timberwolves have four of the six worst SU records in the NBA, so it makes sense that bettors fade these terrible teams. But fading these clubs hasn’t been highly profitable as the vast majority has a combined 57-55 ATS mark when doing so. But what’s up with the Grizzlies? Memphis is 31-26 SU and has the fourth-best ATS record in the entire league (35-21, 63%), so there’s no reason for this team to have the fourth-most fades in the NBA. Majority bettors are getting absolutely slaughtered on Memphis fades, losing 69%, which includes a ridiculous 85% (11-2) when fading the Grizzlies on the road.

Other than Miami (1-0), there are five NBA teams that are winning at least 60% of the time when 65% or more of the public fades them.

BEST Records ATS when Faded by Majority (65% or more)
Chicago 80% (4-1 ATS)
Philadelphia 74% (14-5)
New York 71% (5-2)
Memphis 69% (18-8)
Portland 62% (8-5)
This group represents four of the top five ATS records in the NBA this year with the 76ers, Knicks, Grizzlies and Bulls ranking 2-3-4-5 respectively in ATS win percentage. Portland is ninth in the league with a 53% ATS success rate. Bettors are pretty much avoiding the big-market teams here, Chicago and New York, with just 12 total bets against these two highly successful betting clubs. But Philadelphia is also a mystery here with a stellar 35-20 ATS mark (64%) and a near-.500 SU record (27-29). The 76ers are 10-3 ATS (77%) when 65% majority fades them at home this season.

There are nine NBA teams that are winning 40% or less when at least 65% of the public fades them. Four of these teams have been faded less than seven times (Dallas 1-5, Oklahoma City 1-4, San Antonio 2-4, Atlanta 2-3), so let’s focus on the five other teams that are making majority bettors look smart.

WORST Records ATS when Faded by Majority (65% or more), min. 7G
Denver 29% (2-5 ATS)
Golden State 36% (5-9)
Indiana 36% (5-9)
Phoenix 36% (4-7)
L.A. Clippers 40% (6-9)
It’s interesting to note that Denver is the only team on this list that is among the league’s bottom 10 in terms of overall ATS record this season (25-30, 46%). However, the Warriors are the only team here with a winning ATS record this season (30-25, 55%), as the Pacers, Suns and Clippers are a subpar 76-82 ATS combined. Betting lines.

OVER/UNDER BETTING

In terms of game totals, the general public has been pretty bad this season. There have been 397 games where 65% or more of the betting public has sided one way or the other on the total with a poor success rate of 44.8% (178-219). The Over has dominated these bets, as 88% of the time the public goes heavily for one side, that majority is backing the Over.

65% or more bets for the OVER:
157 wins
191 losses
45.1%

65% or more bets for the UNDER:
21 wins
28 losses
42.9%

In terms of the team breakdown, four teams are finishing OVER at least 60% of the time when 65% of the betting public expects that to happen.

Best OVER Pct. for Majority Over Bets
Cleveland 75% (6 Over, 2 Under)
Oklahoma City 67% (20-10)
Dallas 64% (23-13)
Portland 61% (19-12)
Pretty big numbers here in terms of Units Won, as the three West teams are 62-35 combined. The Thunder, Cavs and Mavs are actually ranked 1-2-3 in terms of highest over percentage in all games, so their inclusion here correlates with those rankings. Portland has actually played more games Under (28) than Over (27), giving the Blazers 8 Over and 16 Under (33%) when NOT a majority Over bet.
You certainly can’t predict these success rates based on scoring offense or scoring defense. Oklahoma City (5th) is the only one among the top 15 scoring teams in the league. Dallas is 16th, Portland is 24th and Cleveland is 25th in points. Looking at this from a defensive point of view, the Cavs have allowed the 3rd-most points and Thunder are giving up the 11th-most, but the Trail Blazers and Mavericks are two of the better defensive teams in the NBA at 22nd and 24th most points allowed, respectively.

Worst OVER Pct. for Majority Over Bets
Indiana 18% (3 Over, 14 Under)
Milwaukee 25% (6-18)
Denver 26% (6-17)
New York 27% (7-19)
Orlando 33% (6-12)
These are some brutal success rates with a healthy sample size for each team. Unlike the list above showing the correlation to the top three Over teams, Milwaukee is the only team on this list that is among the seven worst Over bets on the season. Orlando is the eighth-worst, but New York is 13th-worst and Denver is 25th (or sixth-best).
Like the list above, these teams are all over the map in terms of scoring offense as the Nuggets and Knicks are the highest-scoring teams in the NBA while the Bucks are the lowest. The Magic rank 11th in scoring and the Pacers are just behind them at 13th. New York has surrendered the second-most points in the league while Denver has the sixth-worst scoring defense, but Orlando has the fifth-best PPG allowed and Milwaukee is even better at 3rd in the league.

The Under sample size is much smaller, but there are some teams to note here for the rare times the majority of the betting public sides with the Under. Sports scores.

Best UNDER Pct. for Majority Under Bets (minimum 3 games)
Portland 3 Under, 1 Over
Indiana 2-1
Memphis 2-1
Cleveland 5-3
Toronto 4-3

Worst UNDER Pct. for Majority Under Bets (minimum 3 games)
Philadelphia 0-4
Miami 0-3
Charlotte 1-5
Detroit 1-3
San Antonio 3-6


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UPDATED:
FOOTBALL: 8/3/2014 - 11/3/2014
BASEBALL 8/4/2014 - 9/28/2014
6/2/2014 - 8/3/2014
TOP TEN WAGERS
RK Team
1
Milwaukee Brewers
2
Los Angeles Angels
3
New York Yankees
4
Baltimore Orioles
5
Atlanta Braves
08/21/2014
ATPGARCIA-LOPEZ, G vs. QUERREY, S09:00 AM PST
MLBIndians vs Twins10:10 AM PST
WTAGIORGI, Cvs. MUGURUZA ,G12:30 PM PST
Colombia - Copa PostobonFC BOGOTA vs. LA EQUIDAD1:00 PM PST
MLBDiamondbacks vs Nationals1:05 PM PST
Copa SudamericanaDEP CAPIATA vs. DANUBIO1:15 PM PST
Brazil - Serie ACORINTHIANS vs. GOIAS3:30 PM PST
Copa SudamericanaBARCELONA SC vs. A LIMA3:30 PM PST
Copa SudamericanaTRUJILLANOS vs. IND DEL VALLE3:30 PM PST
WTAFLIPKENS, K vs. STOSUR, S4:00 PM PST
MLBBraves vs Reds4:10 PM PST
MLBAngels vs Red Sox4:10 PM PST
NFLPittsburgh Steelers vs Philadelphia Eagles4:30 PM PST
Brazil - Serie ACRUZEIRO vs. GREMIO4:30 PM PST
MLBGiants vs Cubs5:05 PM PST
Colombia - Copa PostobonA DE CALI vs. CORTULUA5:30 PM PST
Copa SudamericanaDEP U CATOLICA vs. RIVER P (URU)5:50 PM PST
Copa SudamericanaMILLONARIOS vs. CESAR VALLEJO5:50 PM PST
Intl Clubs - CONCACAF - Champions LeagueREAL ESPANA vs. MUNICIPAL7:00 PM PST
Intl Clubs - CONCACAF - Champions LeagueHEREDIANO vs. I METAPAN7:00 PM PST
MLBPadres vs Dodgers7:10 PM PST
08/22/2014
Holland - EredivisieHERACLES vs. C LEEUWARDEN11:00 AM PST
Argentina - Primera BT SUAREZ vs. ALM BROWN11:05 AM PST
MLBOrioles vs Cubs11:20 AM PST
France - Ligue 1EVIAN vs. PSG11:30 AM PST
Germany - BundesligaB MÃœNCHEN vs. WOLFSBURG11:30 AM PST
England - DivisionsALDERSHOT vs. FOREST GREEN11:45 AM PST
Spain - SupercopaATL MADRID vs. REAL MADRID1:30 PM PST
Argentina - PrimeraA SARANDI vs. OLIMPO B BLANCA2:15 PM PST
Uruguay - Primera DivisionDEF SPORTING vs. RENTISTAS3:00 PM PST
Brazil - Serie BOESTE vs. BOA EC3:30 PM PST
Brazil - Serie BA MINEIRO vs. P PRETA3:30 PM PST
MLBGiants vs Nationals4:05 PM PST
MLBCardinals vs Phillies4:05 PM PST
MLBWhite Sox vs Yankees4:05 PM PST
MLBAstros vs Indians4:05 PM PST
MLBT Rays vs Blue Jays4:05 PM PST
MLBMariners vs Red Sox4:10 PM PST
MLBBraves vs Reds4:10 PM PST
Argentina - PrimeraTIGRE vs. RACING4:30 PM PST
Chile - PrimeraSANTIAGO WAND vs. AUDAX5:00 PM PST
MLBRoyals vs Rangers5:05 PM PST
Argentina - Primera BATL ATLANTA vs. EST DE BA5:05 PM PST
MLBTigers vs Twins5:10 PM PST
MLBPirates vs Brewers5:10 PM PST
Mexico - PrimeraMORELIA vs. TIGRES5:30 PM PST
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Brazil - Serie BICASA vs. V DA GAMA5:50 PM PST
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Mexico - PrimeraSANTOS vs. DEP TOLUCA7:30 PM PST
08/23/2014
England - DivisionsIPSWICH vs. NORWICH04:15 AM PST
England - Premier LeagueA VILLA vs. NEWCASTLE04:45 AM PST
Germany - BundesligaHOFFENHEIM vs. AUGSBURG06:30 AM PST
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England - Conference PremierSOUTHPORT vs. ALTRINCHAM07:00 AM PST
England - DivisionsALFRETON vs. WREXHAM07:00 AM PST
England - DivisionsCHESTER vs. HALIFAX07:00 AM PST
England - DivisionsDARTFORD vs. TORQUAY07:00 AM PST
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England - DivisionsGATESHEAD vs. GRIMSBY07:00 AM PST
England - DivisionsLINCOLN vs. BRAINTREE07:00 AM PST
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England - DivisionsNUNEATON vs. BARNET07:00 AM PST
England - DivisionsWELLING UTD vs. WOKING07:00 AM PST
England - DivisionsNOTTINGHAM vs. READING07:00 AM PST
England - DivisionsMIDDLESBROUGH vs. SHEFFIELD WED07:00 AM PST
England - DivisionsMILLWALL vs. ROTHERHAM UTD07:00 AM PST
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England - DivisionsBLACKBURN vs. BOURNEMOUTH07:00 AM PST
England - DivisionsDERBY C vs. FULHAM07:00 AM PST
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England - DivisionsWIGAN vs. BLACKPOOL07:00 AM PST
England - DivisionsWATFORD vs. LEEDS UTD07:00 AM PST
England - DivisionsHUDDERSFIELD vs. CHARLTON ATH07:00 AM PST
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England - League OneLEYTON O vs. WALSALL07:00 AM PST
England - League OneCOLCHESTER UTD vs. DONCASTER07:00 AM PST
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CFLArgonauts vs Eskimos1:05 PM PST
Argentina - PrimeraNEWELL'S vs. BELGRANO1:15 PM PST
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Mexico - Liga de AscensoNECAXA vs. LOBOS2:00 PM PST
Spain - La LigaALMERIA vs. ESPANYOL2:00 PM PST
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Chile - PrimeraU ESPANOLA vs. U DE CONCEPCION3:00 PM PST
Mexico - PrimeraVERACRUZ vs. GUAD CHIVAS3:00 PM PST
Mexico - PrimeraCRUZ AZUL vs. QUERETARO3:00 PM PST
Argentina - MinorSAN MARTIN SJ vs. INST CORDOBA3:30 PM PST
Venezuela - Primera DivisionDEP LA GUAIRA vs. EST DE MERIDA3:30 PM PST
Venezuela - Primera DivisionARAGUA vs. M DE GUAYANA3:30 PM PST
Bolivia - Liga Profesional BolivianaBLOOMING vs. U DE SUCRE4:00 PM PST
USA - MLSNY RED BULLS vs. MONTREAL4:00 PM PST
USA - MLSTORONTO vs. CHICAGO4:00 PM PST
Argentina - PrimeraINDEPENDIENTE vs. VELEZ4:30 PM PST
UFCN Magny vs A Garcia5:00 PM PST
UFCJ Sanchez vs W Reis5:00 PM PST
UFCT Martin vs B Dariush5:00 PM PST
UFCA Phillips vs M Hobar5:00 PM PST
Brazil - Serie APALMEIRAS vs. CORITIBA5:00 PM PST
Brazil - Serie BLUVERDENSE vs. JOINVILLE5:00 PM PST
Brazil - Serie BABC vs. VILA NOVA5:00 PM PST
Mexico - PrimeraMONTERREY vs. PUEBLA5:00 PM PST
Mexico - Liga de AscensoATL SAN LUIS vs. MERIDA5:00 PM PST
Chile - PrimeraDEP ANTOFAGASTA vs. DEP IQUIQUE5:30 PM PST
Mexico - PrimeraATL PACHUCA vs. ATLAS GUAD6:06 PM PST
UFCR Dos Anjos vs B Henderson7:00 PM PST
UFCM Pyle vs J Mein7:00 PM PST
UFCT Leites vs F Carmont7:00 PM PST
UFCM Holloway vs C Collard7:00 PM PST
UFCV Lazaro vs J Vick7:00 PM PST
UFCC Skelly vs T Niinimaki7:00 PM PST
Mexico - PrimeraJAGUARES vs. AMERICA7:00 PM PST
USA - MLSLA GALAXY vs. VANCOUVER7:30 PM PST
Ecuador - Serie AIND DEL VALLE vs. LIGA DEP U QUITO10:00 PM PST
Ecuador - Serie AU CATOLICA vs. OLMEDO10:00 PM PST
08/24/2014
Holland - EredivisiePEC ZWOLLE vs. VITESSE03:30 AM PST
France - Ligue 1O LYONNAIS vs. LENS05:00 AM PST
England - Premier LeagueHULL vs. STOKE05:30 AM PST
England - Premier LeagueTOTTENHAM vs. QPR05:30 AM PST
Holland - EredivisieFEYENOORD vs. UTRECHT05:30 AM PST
Holland - EredivisieNAC BREDA vs. TWENTE05:30 AM PST
Holland - EredivisieA DEN HAAG vs. GRONINGEN05:30 AM PST
Germany - BundesligaPADERBORN vs. MAINZ 0506:30 AM PST
Uruguay - Primera DivisionRACING MONT vs. CERRO06:30 AM PST
Holland - EredivisieAJAX vs. PSV07:45 AM PST
England - Premier LeagueSUNDERLAND vs. MAN UTD08:00 AM PST
France - Ligue 1ST ETIENNE vs. ST RENNES08:00 AM PST
Germany - BundesligaB MÖNCHENGLADBACH vs. STUTTGART08:30 AM PST
Ecuador - Serie ADEP QUITO vs. BARCELONA09:30 AM PST
Mexico - PrimeraPUMAS vs. TIJUANA10:00 AM PST
Spain - La LigaEIBAR vs. R SOCIEDAD10:00 AM PST
Uruguay - Primera DivisionEL TANQUE vs. RAMPLA JRS11:00 AM PST
Uruguay - Primera DivisionRIVER PLATE vs. MONTEVIDEO W11:00 AM PST
Uruguay - Primera DivisionDANUBIO vs. ATENAS DE SC11:00 AM PST
Argentina - PrimeraSAN LORENZO vs. BANFIELD11:15 AM PST
Argentina - PrimeraATl LANUS vs. EST LA PLATA11:15 AM PST
Argentina - MinorFERRO CARRIL vs. BOCA UNIDOS12:00 PM PST
Argentina - MinorGUARANI A.F. vs. ALDOSIVI12:00 PM PST
Brazil - Serie AFLUMINENSE vs. SP RECIFE12:00 PM PST
Brazil - Serie ASAO PAULO vs. SANTOS12:00 PM PST
Brazil - Serie AVITORIA vs. FIGUEIRENSE12:00 PM PST
Brazil - Serie AGREMIO vs. CORINTHIANS12:00 PM PST
Brazil - Serie ACRICIUMA vs. FLAMENGO12:00 PM PST
Bolivia - Liga Profesional BolivianaSP BOYS vs. U DE PANDO12:00 PM PST
France - Ligue 1NANTES vs. MONACO12:00 PM PST
Spain - La LigaCELTA vs. GETAFE12:00 PM PST
Spain - La LigaBARCELONA vs. ELCHE12:00 PM PST
Uruguay - Primera DivisionJUV LAS PIEDRAS vs. PENAROL M12:00 PM PST
CFLStampeders vs Redblacks12:05 PM PST
Argentina - PrimeraDEF Y JUST vs. QUILMES12:15 PM PST
Chile - PrimeraATH BARNECHEA vs. COLO COLO12:30 PM PST
Colombia - Torneo PostobonLLANEROS vs. DEP AGUABLANCA1:00 PM PST
Costa Rica - Primera DivisionUCR vs. AS PUMA1:00 PM PST
Costa Rica - Primera DivisionURUGUAY vs. ALAJUELENSE1:00 PM PST
Costa Rica - Primera DivisionBELEN vs. CARTAGINES1:00 PM PST
Peru - PrimeraU DE DEPORTES vs. HUANUCO1:00 PM PST
Peru - PrimeraDEP SAN MARTIN vs. JUAN AURICH1:00 PM PST
Peru - PrimeraCAJAMARCA vs. A LIMA1:45 PM PST
Costa Rica - Primera DivisionLIMON vs. SAPRISSA2:00 PM PST
Spain - La LigaLEVANTE vs. VILLARREAL2:00 PM PST
USA - MLSPORTLAND vs. SEATTLE2:00 PM PST
Argentina - PrimeraBOCA JRS vs. ATL RAFAELA2:15 PM PST
Brazil - Serie AATLETICO vs. BAHIA2:30 PM PST
Brazil - Serie AGOIAS GO vs. CRUZEIRO2:30 PM PST
Venezuela - Primera DivisionDEP LARA vs. CARABOBO2:30 PM PST
Chile - PrimeraPALESTINO vs. DEP U CATOLICA3:00 PM PST
Mexico - PrimeraLEONES NEGROS vs. LEON3:00 PM PST
Colombia - Liga Postobon IIONCE CALDAS vs. MILLONARIOS3:45 PM PST
CFLRoughriders vs Lions4:05 PM PST
USA - MLSPHILADELPHIA vs. SJ EARTHQUAKES5:00 PM PST
Argentina - PrimeraGODOY CRUZ vs. RIVER PLATE5:30 PM PST
08/25/2014
England - Conference PremierFOREST GREEN vs. BRISTOL05:00 AM PST
England - Conference PremierTELFORD UTD vs. SOUTHPORT07:00 AM PST
England - Conference PremierALTRINCHAMvs. GATESHEAD07:00 AM PST
England - Conference PremierBARNET vs. DARTFORD07:00 AM PST
England - Conference PremierBRAINTREE vs. NUNEATON07:00 AM PST
England - Conference PremierEASTLEIGH vs. WELLING UTD07:00 AM PST
England - Conference PremierHALIFAX vs. LINCOLN07:00 AM PST
England - Conference PremierKIDDERMINSTER vs. CHESTER07:00 AM PST
England - Conference PremierWOKING vs. DOVER07:00 AM PST
England - Conference PremierWREXHAM vs. MACCLESFIELD07:00 AM PST
Spain - La LigaREAL MADRID vs. CORDOBA11:00 AM PST
England - Premier LeagueMAN CITY vs. LIVERPOOL12:00 PM PST
Spain - La LigaR VALLECANO vs. ATL MADRID1:00 PM PST
Colombia - Torneo PostobonA DE CALI vs. SANTA MARTA6:00 PM PST
08/26/2014
Copa SudamericanaSJ ORURO vs. HUACHIPATO09:00 AM PST
UEFA Champions LeagueZENIT vs. S LIEGE09:00 AM PST
England - League CupHUDDERSFIELD vs. NOTTINGHAM11:45 AM PST
England - League CupWATFORD vs. DONCASTER11:45 AM PST
England - League CupMILLWALL vs. SOUTHAMPTON11:45 AM PST
England - League CupBRENTFORD vs. FULHAM11:45 AM PST
England - League CupDERBY vs. CHARLTON ATH11:45 AM PST
England - League CupWEST HAM vs. SHEFFIELD UTD11:45 AM PST
England - League CupGILLINGHAM vs. NEWCASTLE11:45 AM PST
England - League CupBURNLEY vs. SHEFFIELD WED11:45 AM PST
UEFA Champions LeagueCELTIC vs. M PIV LASKO11:45 AM PST
UEFA Champions LeagueA NICOSIA vs. AALBORG11:45 AM PST
UEFA Champions LeagueB BORISOV vs. SL BRATISLAVA11:45 AM PST
UEFA Champions LeaguePORTO vs. LILLE11:45 AM PST
England - League CupMILTON K DONS vs. MAN UTD12:00 PM PST
Argentina - PrimeraBELGRANO vs. GIM Y ESG PLATA1:00 PM PST
Argentina - PrimeraOLIMPO B BLANCA vs. INDEPENDIENTE3:15 PM PST
Brazil - Serie BBOA EC vs. ICASA3:30 PM PST
Mexico - Copa MXQUERETARO vs. EST ALTAMIRA5:00 PM PST
Mexico - Copa MXATLANTE vs. TOLUCA5:00 PM PST
Mexico - Copa MXLOBOS vs. VERACRUZ5:00 PM PST
Argentina - PrimeraRACING vs. ARSENAL5:30 PM PST
Brazil - Serie BVILA NOVA vs. PORTUGUESA5:50 PM PST
Copa SudamericanaC PORTENO vs. RENTISTAS6:00 PM PST
Copa SudamericanaDEP IQUIQUE vs. U DE SUCRE6:00 PM PST
Intl Clubs - CONCACAF - Champions LeagueSAPRISSA vs. REAL ESTELI7:00 PM PST
Mexico - Copa MXTIJUANA vs. CORAS TEPIC7:00 PM PST
09/04/2014
NFLGreen Bay Packers vs Seattle Seahawks5:30 PM PST
09/07/2014
NFLNew Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons10:00 AM PST
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09/08/2014
NFLNew York Giants vs Detroit Lions4:10 PM PST
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09/13/2014
BOXINGM Maidana vs F Mayweather Jr8:00 PM PST

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