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TOP MLB WEEKEND POWER TRENDS 9/3-9/5
Fri, 03 Sep 2010 07:49 PM EDT

With the NFL still a week away, Major League Baseball has this one last weekend as the nation’s top professional sport, especially amongst bettors. Below are the two key series to watch this holiday weekend, one in each league.

Colorado at San Diego (Friday-Sunday)

The Padres have the pitching matchup advantage this weekend to distance themselves from the never-say-die Rockies. San Diego has lost seven straight games, but still leads the West by three games over San Francisco and 7.5 games over Colorado. Vegas Odds

On Friday, the Padres send Cory Luebke to the mound for his major-league debut. Despite his lack of big-league experience, oddsmakers set the line at -149 for the former first-round draft pick. Luebke, a 6-foot-4 southpaw, finished his stint at Triple-A Portland with a 14-inning scoreless streak and posted a 2.97 ERA, 44 K and 17 BB in nine starts with Portland. The line is also indicative of Luebke’s opponent Aaron Cook (4-8, 5.34 ERA) and his outrageous 13.98 ERA and 3.00 WHIP in his last three starts.

FoxSheets shows two 4*-rated bullpen trends to give bettors confidence that San Diego’s losing streak will end on Friday.

Play Against – Road teams (COLORADO) – after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 6 or more earned runs against opponent with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 15 games. (70-23 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.3%, +43.8 units. Rating = 4*).

Play Against – Road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (COLORADO) – with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities, with a cold starting pitcher- WHIP >= 2.250 over his last 3 starts. (37-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.2%, +26.9 units. Rating = 4*).

Texas at Minnesota (Friday-Sunday)

The big series in the American League pits division leaders Texas and Minnesota. The Twins swept the Rangers the last time these clubs met at Target Field (May 28-30), outscoring them 16-7 in the three games. But the Rangers also get a huge boost this weekend as both Josh Hamilton (.361 BA, 31 HR, 97 RBI) and Ian Kinsler (.298 BA, .387 OBP) are expected to return to the lineup from injuries.

Oddsmakers were thrown a curve ball for Friday’s series opener as Twins’ probable Nick Blackburn was forced to pitch in relief and took the loss in Thursday’s 13-inning defeat to Detroit. As we went to press, Matt Fox was expected to make his major-league debut for Minnesota on Friday. Blackburn will likely start Sunday.

With Friday and Sunday unclear, let’s shift our focus to Saturday’s matchup. The Rangers send Colby Lewis (9-11, 3.56 ERA) to the mound to face Carl Pavano (15-10, 3.52 ERA). The Rangers are 1-7 in the last eight games started by Lewis, but don’t blame the pitcher. Over this span, Lewis has a respectable 3.86 ERA and 51 K in 51.1 IP. The one win came two weeks ago against Minnesota where Lewis was victorious with 6.1 quality innings of work (seven hits, three runs).

Despite being winless in his past three starts, Pavano has already set a career high in wins this season. He has not fared well against Texas though. In five career starts (all since 2009), Pavano is 1-3 with a 7.62 ERA and allowing the Rangers a .321 batting average.

Look for this FoxSheets trend to factor in Saturday when the Rangers will be slight underdogs. Play On – All underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (TEXAS) – with a winning record on the season, in September games. (223-175 over the last 5 seasons.) (56%, +88.7 units. Rating = 3*).

This same stat may hold true on Sunday when the Twins will be the underdog against Texas ace C.J. Wilson (14-5, 2.88 ERA). It’s unclear at this point if Minnesota will be more than +150 on the money line. It is rare for a larger spread to be placed on a division leader in September playing so well at home recently (13-3 in last 16 games at Target Field).

There are many interesting trends to play on (and against) this weekend. Here’s a look at the highly-rated StatFox Power Trends that will impact the action. Betting Lines

NEW YORK METS at CHICAGO CUBS

  • CHICAGO CUBS are 14-26 (-23.6 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season this season. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 3.8, OPPONENT 4.5 – (Rating = 4*).HOUSTON at ARIZONA
  • HOUSTON is 3-23 (-20.3 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was HOUSTON 3.4, OPPONENT 6.7 – (Rating = 4*). TAMPA BAY at BALTIMORE
  • BALTIMORE is 13-7 (+16.6 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season this season. The average score was BALTIMORE 4.3, OPPONENT 3.6 – (Rating = 3*).DETROIT at KANSAS CITY
  • DETROIT is 0-7 (-10.5 Units) against the money line in road games vs. AL teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DETROIT 2.6, OPPONENT 5.7 – (Rating = 3*).

    CINCINNATI at ST. LOUIS

  • CINCINNATI is 77-52 (+22.2 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season. The average score was CINCINNATI 5.1, OPPONENT 4.3 – (Rating = 2*).CHICAGO WHITE SOX at BOSTON
  • BOSTON is 8-26 (-19.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was BOSTON 3.5, OPPONENT 5.0 – (Rating = 2*).

    TORONTO at NEW YORK YANKEES

  • NY YANKEES are 70-29 (+31.7 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was NY YANKEES 5.8, OPPONENT 4.0 – (Rating = 2*). ATLANTA at FLORIDA
  • ATLANTA is 12-24 (-14.4 Units) against the money line in road games vs. a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 this season. The average score was ATLANTA 3.4, OPPONENT 4.4 – (Rating = 2*).MILWAUKEE at PHILADELPHIA
  • PHILADELPHIA is 27-10 (+15.7 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season this season. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 5.1, OPPONENT 4.1 – (Rating = 2*).LOS ANGELES ANGELS at OAKLAND
  • LA ANGELS are 8-18 (-14.8 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a batting average of .265 or worse in the second half of the season this season. The average score was LA ANGELS 3.4, OPPONENT 4.6 – (Rating = 2*). Football Odds

    CLEVELAND at SEATTLE

  • CLEVELAND is 9-30 (-16.4 Units) against the money line vs. a bullpen that averages less than 2.75 innings per game this season. The average score was CLEVELAND 3.7, OPPONENT 5.7 – (Rating = 2*). WASHINGTON at PITTSBURGH
  • PITTSBURGH is 9-28 (-18.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PITTSBURGH 4.4, OPPONENT 5.6 – (Rating = 2*).SAN FRANCISCO at LOS ANGELES DODGERS
  • LA DODGERS are 63-40 (+18.4 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better over the last 2 seasons. The average score was LA DODGERS 4.3, OPPONENT 3.7 – (Rating = 1*).

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    02/01/2015
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    Greece - Super LeagueGIANNINA vs. AOK KERKYRA07:15 AM PST
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    NHLSt. Louis Blues vs Washington Capitals10:05 AM PST
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    Ecuador - Serie AMUSHUC RUNA vs. DEPORTIVO CUENCA11:00 AM PST
    Intl - Africa Cup of NationsIVORY COAST vs. ALGERIA11:00 AM PST
    NBALakers vs Knicks11:05 AM PST
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    Intl Youth - U20 ConmebolPERU vs. COLOMBIA11:50 AM PST
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    France - Ligue 1MONACO vs. O LYONNAIS12:00 PM PST
    Spain - La LigaBARCELONA vs. VILLARREAL12:00 PM PST
    Venezuela - Primera DivisionDEP LARA vs. EST DE MERIDA12:00 PM PST
    Venezuela - Primera DivisionCARABOBO vs. DEP PETARE12:00 PM PST
    Portugal - Primeira LigaPORTO vs. P FERREIRA12:15 PM PST
    Colombia - Liga Postobon IIMILLONARIOS vs. DEP PASTO1:00 PM PST
    Costa Rica - Primera DivisionLIMON vs. UCR1:00 PM PST
    Costa Rica - Primera DivisionSAPRISSA vs. URUGUAY1:00 PM PST
    Paraguay - Primera DivisionDEP SANTANI vs. SAN LORENZO1:00 PM PST
    Bolivia - Liga Profesional BolivianaU DE SUCRE vs. BOLIVAR1:15 PM PST
    Brazil - Carioca, Serie AFLUMINENSE vs. FRIBURGUENSE1:30 PM PST
    Brazil - Paulista, Serie A1SANTOS vs. ITUANO1:30 PM PST
    Brazil - Paulista, Serie A1SAO BENTO vs. LINENSE1:30 PM PST
    Brazil - Paulista, Serie A1PONTE PRETA vs. PORTUGUESA1:30 PM PST
    Chile - PrimeraDEP U CATOLICA vs. NUBLENSE1:30 PM PST
    Venezuela - Primera DivisionCARACAS vs. MINEROS1:30 PM PST
    Colombia - Liga Postobon IIDEP LA EQUIDAD vs. IND SANTA FE2:00 PM PST
    Intl Youth - U20 ConmebolARGENTINA vs. BRAZIL2:00 PM PST
    Paraguay - Primera DivisionRUBIO NU vs. OLIMPIA A2:00 PM PST
    Colombia - Liga Postobon IIB PATRIOTAS vs. ATL HUILA2:30 PM PST
    Venezuela - Primera DivisionZAMORA vs. METROPOLITANOS2:30 PM PST
    Mexico - PrimeraGUAD CHIVAS vs. PACHUCA3:00 PM PST
    Mexico - Liga de AscensoEST DE ALTAMIRA vs. CELAYA3:00 PM PST
    NFLPatriots vs Seahawks3:30 PM PST
    Bolivia - Liga Profesional BolivianaBLOOMING vs. SJ ORURO3:30 PM PST
    Intl Youth - U20 ConmebolURUGUAY vs. PARAGUAY4:10 PM PST
    Argentina - Torneos de VeranoCA INDEPENDIENTE vs. RACING CLUB DE AVELLANEDA5:10 PM PST
    02/02/2015
    Israel - Premier LeagueH RAANANA vs. ASHDOD09:00 AM PST
    Israel - Premier LeagueM TEL AVIV vs. H TEL AVIV10:55 AM PST
    Bolivia - Liga Profesional BolivianaSPORT BOYS vs. P DE YACUIBA11:30 AM PST
    France - Ligue 2LE HAVRE vs. VALENCIENNES11:30 AM PST
    Spain - La LigaMALAGA vs. VALENCIA11:45 AM PST
    NBA76ers vs Cavaliers4:05 PM PST
    NBAHornets vs Wizards4:05 PM PST
    NBAClippers vs Nets4:35 PM PST
    NBABucks vs Raptors4:35 PM PST
    NBAHawks vs Pelicans5:05 PM PST
    NBAMagic vs Thunder5:05 PM PST
    NBATimberwolves vs Mavericks5:35 PM PST
    NBAGrizzlies vs Suns6:05 PM PST
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    Holland - EredivisieGO A EAGLES vs. EXCELSIOR09:30 AM PST
    Germany - BundesligaB MÃœNCHEN vs. SCHALKE11:00 AM PST
    Germany - BundesligaB MÖNCHENGLADBACH vs. FREIBURG11:00 AM PST
    Germany - BundesligaHANNOVER vs. MAINZ11:00 AM PST
    Germany - BundesligaE FRANKFURT vs. WOLFSBURG11:00 AM PST
    England - Conference PremierDOVER ATH vs. GRIMSBY11:45 AM PST
    England - Conference PremierALFRETON vs. LINCOLN11:45 AM PST
    England - Conference PremierTELFORD UTD vs. GATESHEAD11:45 AM PST
    England - Conference PremierWREXHAM vs. FOREST GREEN11:45 AM PST
    England - FA CupMAN UTD vs. CAMBRIDGE11:45 AM PST
    England - FA CupFULHAM vs. SUNDERLAND11:45 AM PST
    Holland - EredivisieNAC BREDA vs. PSV11:45 AM PST
    Italy - Coppa ItaliaROMA vs. FIORENTINA11:45 AM PST
    Brazil - Paulista, Serie A1SAO BERNARDO vs. PIRACICABA1:30 PM PST
    Brazil - Paulista, Serie A1BOTAFOGO vs. AUDAX1:30 PM PST
    Chile - PrimeraU DE CHILE vs. DEP IQUIQUE2:30 PM PST
    Intl Clubs - Copa LibertadoresALIANZA LIMA vs. HURACAN4:15 PM PST
    Chile - PrimeraATH BARNECHEA vs. U DE CONCEPCION5:00 PM PST
    Mexico - Copa MXQUERETARO vs. ZACATECAS5:00 PM PST
    Mexico - Copa MXVERACRUZ vs. CORRECAMINOS5:00 PM PST
    Mexico - Copa MXTOLUCA vs. ATLANTE5:00 PM PST
    Intl Clubs - Copa LibertadoresMORELIA vs. STRONGEST6:30 PM PST
    Mexico - Copa MXEST DE ALTAMIRA vs. MONTERREY7:00 PM PST
    Mexico - Copa MXGUAD CHIVAS vs. LOBOS B.U.A.P.7:00 PM PST
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    Greece - Super LeaguePANAITOLIKOS vs. ERGOTELIS05:00 AM PST
    Greece - Super LeagueS XANTHI vs. PANIONIOS07:15 AM PST
    Greece - Super LeagueA TRIPOLIS vs. PLATANIAS07:15 AM PST
    Greece - Super LeagueOFI KRETA vs. P THESSALONIKI07:15 AM PST
    Greece - Super LeagueGIANNINA vs. VEROIA07:15 AM PST
    Greece - Super LeagueO PIRAEUS vs. ATROMITOS09:30 AM PST
    Holland - EredivisieHEERENVEEN vs. FEYENOORD09:30 AM PST
    Holland - EredivisieA DEN HAAG vs. TWENTE09:30 AM PST
    Holland - EredivisiePEC ZWOLLE vs. DORDRECHT10:45 AM PST
    Brazil - Carioca, Serie ANOVA IGUACU vs. FLUMINENSE11:00 AM PST
    Brazil - Paulista, Serie A1ITUANO vs. BRAGANTINO11:00 AM PST
    Brazil - Paulista, Serie A1PORTUGUESA vs. SAO BENTO11:00 AM PST
    Chile - PrimeraU ESPANOLA vs. COLO COLO11:00 AM PST
    Chile - PrimeraCOBRESAL vs. AUDAX11:00 AM PST
    Germany - BundesligaB DORTMUND vs. AUGSBURG11:00 AM PST
    Germany - BundesligaHOFFENHEIM vs. W BREMEN11:00 AM PST
    Germany - BundesligaHERTHA vs. B LEVERKUSEN11:00 AM PST
    Germany - BundesligaKÖLN vs. STUTTGART11:00 AM PST
    Germany - BundesligaPADERBORN vs. HAMBURGER11:00 AM PST
    England - FA CupBOLTON vs. LIVERPOOL11:45 AM PST
    Holland - EredivisieC LEEUWARDEN vs. VITESSE11:45 AM PST
    Holland - EredivisieWILLEM II vs. UTRECHT11:45 AM PST
    Italy - Coppa ItaliaNAPOLI vs. INTER11:45 AM PST
    Spain - La LigaR MADRID vs. SEVILLA11:45 AM PST
    Intl Youth - U20 ConmebolPERU vs. BRAZIL11:50 AM PST
    Chile - PrimeraSANTIAGO WAND vs. DEP U CATOLICA1:15 PM PST
    Brazil - Carioca, Serie AV REDONDA vs. BOTAFOGO1:30 PM PST
    Brazil - Paulista, Serie A1SAO PAULO vs. CAPIVARIANO1:30 PM PST
    Brazil - Paulista, Serie A1RB BRASIL vs. ATL PENAPOLENSE1:30 PM PST
    Brazil - Paulista, Serie A1MARILIA vs. RIO CLARO1:30 PM PST
    Intl Youth - U20 ConmebolARGENTINA vs. PARAGUAY2:00 PM PST
    Chile - PrimeraCOBRELOA vs. O'HIGGINS3:30 PM PST
    Brazil - Carioca, Serie AFLAMENGO vs. BARRA MANSA4:00 PM PST
    Brazil - Paulista, Serie A1MOGI MIRIM vs. SANTOS4:00 PM PST
    Intl Clubs - Copa LibertadoresCORINTHIANS vs. ONCE CALDAS4:00 PM PST
    Intl Youth - U20 ConmebolURUGUAY vs. COLOMBIA4:10 PM PST
    Mexico - Copa MXU DE GUAD vs. NECAXA5:00 PM PST
    Mexico - Copa MXJAGUARES vs. ZACATEPEC5:00 PM PST
    Costa Rica - Primera DivisionCARMELITA vs. ALAJUELENSE6:00 PM PST
    Intl Clubs - Copa LibertadoresDEP TACHIRA vs. CERRO PORTENO6:15 PM PST
    Mexico - Copa MXIRAPUATO vs. D DE SINALOA7:00 PM PST
    Mexico - Copa MXALEBRIJES vs. UNAM PUMAS7:00 PM PST
    02/05/2015
    Greece - Super LeagueNIKI VOLOU vs. PANATHINAIKOS09:30 AM PST
    Greece - Super LeaguePANTHRAKIKOS vs. AEL KALLONI09:30 AM PST
    Holland - EredivisieHERACLES vs. GRONINGEN09:30 AM PST
    Holland - EredivisieAJAX vs. AZ ALKMAAR11:45 AM PST
    Brazil - Carioca, Serie AFRIBURGUENSE vs. MACAE ESP1:30 PM PST
    Brazil - Paulista, Serie A1PALMEIRAS vs. PONTE PRETA1:30 PM PST
    Intl Clubs - Copa LibertadoresDEP PALESTINO vs. NAC DE FOOTBALL2:45 PM PST
    Brazil - Carioca, Serie AV DA GAMA vs. MADUREIRA3:00 PM PST
    Chile - PrimeraNUBLENSE vs. DEP U LA CALERA3:00 PM PST
    Intl Clubs - Copa LibertadoresIND DEL VALLE vs. EST DE LA PLATA5:00 PM PST
    02/06/2015
    France - Ligue 2AJACCIO vs. S LAVALLOIS11:00 AM PST
    France - Ligue 2ANGERS vs. TOURS11:00 AM PST
    France - Ligue 2A AVIGNON vs. O NIMES11:00 AM PST
    France - Ligue 2CLERMONT vs. CHAMOIS11:00 AM PST
    France - Ligue 2CRETEIL vs. LE HAVRE11:00 AM PST
    France - Ligue 2TROYES vs. AJACCIO11:00 AM PST
    France - Ligue 2VALENCIENNES vs. AUXERRE11:00 AM PST
    France - Ligue 2ORLEANS vs. CHATEAUROUX11:00 AM PST
    France - Ligue 1ST ETIENNE vs. LENS11:30 AM PST
    Germany - BundesligaSCHALKE vs. B MÖNCHENGLADBACH11:30 AM PST
    Spain - La LigaDEP LA CORUNA vs. EIBAR11:45 AM PST
    Peru - Copa IncaJUAN AURICH vs. DEP SAN MARTIN12:00 PM PST
    Peru - Copa IncaALIANZA ATL vs. CESAR VALLEJO12:00 PM PST
    Paraguay - Primera DivisionSAN LORENZO vs. SP LUQUENO2:30 PM PST
    Paraguay - Primera DivisionDEP CAPIATA vs. GUARANI2:30 PM PST
    Bolivia - Liga Profesional BolivianaB REAL POTOSI vs. SPORT BOYS3:00 PM PST
    Intl Clubs - Recopa SudamericanaRIVER PLATE ARG vs. SAN LORENZO4:00 PM PST
    Mexico - PrimeraMORELIA vs. AMERICA5:30 PM PST
    Mexico - Liga de AscensoZACATECAS vs. EST DE ALTAMIRA5:30 PM PST
    Mexico - PrimeraVERACRUZ vs. QUERETARO6:30 PM PST
    Mexico - PrimeraSANTOS vs. GUAD CHIVAS7:30 PM PST
    02/14/2015
    Poland - EkstraklasaC KRAKOW vs. S WROCLAW09:00 AM PST
    Poland - EkstraklasaBELCHATOW vs. POD BIELSKO B09:00 AM PST
    Poland - EkstraklasaG ZABRZE vs. K KIELCE09:00 AM PST
    Poland - EkstraklasaL GDANSK vs. W KRAKOW09:00 AM PST
    Poland - EkstraklasaL WARSZAWA vs. JAG BIALYSTOK09:00 AM PST
    Poland - EkstraklasaP SZCZECIN vs. L POZNAN09:00 AM PST
    Poland - EkstraklasaR CHORZOW vs. P GLIWICE09:00 AM PST
    Poland - EkstraklasaZ BYDGOSZCZ vs. G LECZNA09:00 AM PST
    03/03/2015
    Germany - DFB PokalB LEVERKUSEN vs. KAISERSLAUTERN10:00 AM PST
    Germany - DFB PokalOFFENBACHER vs. B MÖNCHENGLADBACH10:00 AM PST
    Germany - DFB PokalB MÃœNCHEN vs. E BRAUNSCHWEIG10:00 AM PST
    Germany - DFB PokalAALEN vs. HOFFENHEIM10:00 AM PST
    Germany - DFB PokalLEIPZIG vs. WOLFSBURG10:00 AM PST
    Germany - DFB PokalARMINIA B vs. W BREMEN10:00 AM PST
    Germany - DFB PokalFREIBURG vs. KÖLN10:00 AM PST
    Germany - DFB PokalD DRESDEN vs. B DORTMUND10:00 AM PST

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