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TRENDING: NBA ROAD BREAKDOWN
Fri, 08 Apr 2011 01:27 PM EDT

This edition of our NBA Trending column will focus on how road teams have fared this season. Through Monday, March 7, NBA road teams are a combined 380-564 SU (40%), but have a winning ATS mark of 481-443-20 (52%) when playing on the road, which includes Toronto’s two “road” games in London against “home” team New Jersey. We found some interesting trends when conducting our road breakdown below. Basketball lines.

Road Teams ATS

Best ATS Road Records
1. New York 22-8 (73%)
2. San Antonio 20-10 (67%)
3. Memphis 22-12 (65%)
4. Dallas 20-11 (65%)
5. Philadelphia 19-11 (63%)
Dallas and San Antonio are the two best road teams in the league SU, both winning over 70% of the time. But the other three teams on this list are all sub-.500 road teams. New York is only one game under .500 SU (15-16), but Memphis is 14-20 SU and Philadelphia is 11-20 SU away from home.

Worst ATS Road Records
1. Washington 9-21 (30%)
2. New Jersey 12-19 (39%)
3. L.A. Clippers 12-18 (40%)
4. Orlando 12-16 (43%)
Washington is the worst road team in the league at 1-29 SU, New Jersey is tied for second-worst at 4-27 SU and the Clippers are sixth-worst at 6-25 SU. The oddball here is Orlando, which has the seventh-best SU road mark in the NBA at 16-13.

Road Favorites and Underdogs

But let’s dig a littler deeper in terms of favorites and underdogs.
Road Favorites: 182-96 SU (65%), 139-134 ATS (51%)
Road Underdogs: 187-463 SU (29%), 331-304 ATS (52%)

Six teams have not been favored on the road at all this season — Cleveland, Detroit, Minnesota, New Jersey, Sacramento and Washington. However, these five teams have been road favorites at least 20 times.

Most Times Favored on Road
30 L.A. Lakers: 21-9 SU (70%), 17-13 ATS (57%)
25 Miami: 18-7 SU (72%), 15-10 ATS (60%)
22 Boston: 15-7 SU (68%), 10-12 ATS (42%)
21 San Antonio: 16-5 SU (76%), 13-7 ATS (65%)
21 Orlando: 14-7 SU (67%), 10-11 ATS (48%)
All five of these elite teams are winning at least two-thirds of the time SU when favored on the road, and have combined for a quality 65-53 ATS mark (55%).

In terms of best success as a road favorite, there are five teams winning at least 60% ATS when favored away from home.

Best Road FAVORITE ATS Records (min. 5 games)
1. Philadelphia 4-1 (80%)
2. San Antonio 13-7 (65%)
3. Portland 7-4 (64%)
4. Houston 5-3 (63%)
5. Miami 15-10 (60%)
Philadelphia and San Antonio were also on the list of best ATS road records overall, but three new teams join this group.
Portland is 0-2-2 ATS when it’s a road favorite of 4 or more points, but the Blazers are a stellar 7-2-1 ATS when favored by less than 4 points away from Rose Garden.

Houston is scoring 111.8 PPG in eight games as a road favorite, but does not have a better success rate because it is allowing 106.8 PPG.

Miami’s value has a heavy correlation with point spreads. The Heat are 6-2 ATS when favored by at least 8 points, but just 1-4 ATS with a spread of 5.5 to 7.5 points. They are also 7-0 ATS when giving 3.5 to 5 points, but just 1-4 ATS when giving less than four points. Also, the Under is 15-10 (60%) when Miami is a road favorite, but the Over is 7-1 (88%) when the Heat are a road underdog.

Worst Road FAVORITE ATS Records (min. 5 games)
1. New Orleans 4-8 (33%)
2. Memphis 3-6 (33%)
3. Oklahoma City 5-8 (38%)
4. New York 2-3 (40%)
New Orleans is 2-7 ATS when favored by at least 2 points on the road. Six of these ATS losses were also SU defeats, with the only non-covering SU win being a 75-71 snooze fest at Sacramento back on Nov. 21. Basketball betting lines.

Memphis is 0-5 ATS when favored by at least 3½ points, with just one SU win in this scenario, a two-point victory at five-point underdog Toronto. The Under has been a great play when the Grizzlies are favored on the road, occurring 78% of the time (7-2).

Oklahoma City attracts shootouts when it is favored on the road. The Over has hit 9-of-13 times (69%) with the Thunder scoring 105.9 PPG, and the opponent pumping in 104.8 PPG.

New York is a surprise here, considering the Knicks own the best ATS road record in the league, but 2-3 is not a huge sample size. However all three ATS defeats were also SU defeats, two to Cleveland and one to Minnesota.

The sample size is obviously a lot greater for road underdogs than it is for road favorites with 24 NBA teams pitted as road dogs at least 15 times this year. The L.A. Lakers (4), Boston (7), Orlando (8), Miami (8), San Antonio (8) and Chicago (13) are the six exceptions.

Best Road UNDERDOG ATS Records (min. 15 games)
1. New York 19-5 (79%)
2. Memphis 18-6 (75%)
3. Dallas 12-4 (75%)
4. New Orleans 14-8 (64%)
5. Philadelphia 15-10 (60%)
Four of these five teams (NY, MEM, DAL, PHI) were also on the list of best road ATS records, so it’s not a big surprise they are part of this list too, considering most road teams are also underdogs. But the one exception here is New Orleans who was just shown to be the worst road favorite in the entire league. The Hornets are only 3-4 ATS when getting fewer than 4 points, but when the spread is +4 or higher, they are a whopping 11-4 ATS (73%). They are keeping scores close on the defensive end, as the Under has occurred 71% of the time (17-7) New Orleans is a road underdog.

Worst Road UNDERDOG ATS Records (min. 15 games)
1. Washington 9-21 (30%)
2. New Jersey 12-19 (39%)
3. L.A. Clippers 11-15 (42%)
4. Indiana 10-13 (43%)
5. Portland 7-9 (44%)
Washington, New Jersey and the L.A. Clippers were the three worst road teams ATS, so their inclusion on this list was also expected. Indiana has a strong 6-4 ATS when pitted as an underdog of less than 7 points. But when the Pacers get 7+ points from the elite NBA teams, they are just 4-9 ATS, losing those games by an average of 11.5 PPG (106.8 to 95.3 PPG).

Road Teams Over/Under

Below are the top NBA road teams in terms of Over/Under.

Highest OVER Pct. in Road Games
1. Utah 20 Over, 11 Under (65%)
2. Cleveland 19-11 (63%)
3t. Dallas 19-12 (61%)
3t. San Antonio 19-12 (61%)
5. Washington 18-12 (60%)

San Antonio (6-2 Over as road underdog) is the only team on this list among the 10 highest-scoring road clubs in the NBA, placing sixth in road points. Dallas (10-4 Under as road favorite) ranks 11th in points on the road, Utah is 13th, Washington is 21st and Cleveland is 25th. However, the Wizards have allowed 108.8 PPG on the road and the Cavaliers are surrendering 108.2 PPG away from home, and only Minnesota (109.4 PPG) has allowed more than these two on the road. Basketball scores.

Highest UNDER Pct. in Road Games
1. Detroit 21 Under, 10 Over (68%)
2. New Orleans 24-12 (67%)
3. Memphis 21-12 (64%)
4. Golden State 19-11 (63%)
5. Chicago 19-12 (61%)
Chicago and New Orleans rank 2nd and 3rd in fewest points allowed on the road, but the others are not in the Top 10 in this category. Detroit is 11th, Memphis (7-2 Under as road favorite) is 14th and Golden State is 27th, or fourth-worst in the NBA.


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UPDATED:
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