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USC’S FALL LEAVES ROOM AT TOP OF PAC 10 CONFERENCE
Sun, 15 Aug 2010 06:11 PM EDT

With perennial power USC slipping from its customary perch both nationally and in the conference standings, the Pac 10 fell below the other power leagues in the 2009 college football landscape. What’s more, the seven teams that did qualify for bowl games uncharacteristically struggled, with only UCLA and USC winning their relatively minor contests. Oregon, the league champion, fell to Ohio State in the Rose Bowl game. The Ducks were expected to be a heavy favorite in the conference for 2010, but those aspirations took a hit with the season-long suspension of dual threat QB Jeremiah Masoli. While still expected to be a Pac 10 contender, perhaps national title consideration is no longer reachable for Oregon. Same goes for Oregon State, who boasts the potent Rodgers brothers but has non-conference tilts versus both TCU and Boise State before league play even commences. Could the Trojans be back atop the conference standings then, even though they aren’t eligible for the title? If you ask new head coach Lane Kiffin, he’d say yes. Other potential contenders would have to include Washington and QB Jake Locker, the potential first pick in next spring’s NFL draft, as well as California, who is always loaded. As you can see, this league is again deep, as teams like Stanford, UCLA, and Arizona haven’t even been mentioned to this point yet are clearly bowl caliber teams. Perhaps it’s just best to pity fans in Tempe, AZ and Pullman, WA. Football Betting Lines

2010 Predicted Finish (Sportsbook.com Odds to win conference)
1. Oregon State (+350)
2. USC (Officially ineligible to win conference)
3. Oregon (+150)
4. Washington (+350)
5. California (+800)
6. Arizona (+500)
7. Stanford (+650)
8. UCLA (+500)
9. Arizona State (+1200)
10. Washington State (+3000)

ARIZONA WILDCATS
Head Coach: Mike Stoops, 7th year (33-39 SU)
2009 Record: 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS
Offense: Multiple-Spread – Starters Returning: 10
Defense: 4-3 – Starters Returning: 7

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +3.5 (#54 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +5.8 (#41 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 45 (#30 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/3 – at Toledo
9/11 – THE CITADEL
9/18 – IOWA
9/25 – CALIFORNIA
10/9 – OREGON ST
10/16 – at Washington St
10/23 – WASHINGTON
10/30 – at UCLA
11/6 – at Stanford
11/13 – USC
11/26 – at Oregon
12/2 – ARIZONA ST

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 8-5, 21-17 (55%)
Overall ATS: 6-7, 20-17 (54%)
at Home ATS: 4-2, 13-5 (72%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 2-5, 7-12 (37%)
vs Conference ATS: 6-3, 17-10 (63%)
as Favorite ATS: 3-3, 10-9 (53%)
as Underdog ATS: 3-3, 9-7 (56%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 40.85 (17)
Points Scored – Allowed: 27.4 (61) – 23.9 (53)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 384.5 (58) – 322.0 (25)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 5.47 (65) – 5.07 (36)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 4.82 (18) – 3.87 (52)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 6.05 (106) – 6.22 (24)
Turnover Differential: -0.1 (68)

2010 OUTLOOK
The Sun Devils have plummeted to the depths of the Pac-10 after winning 10 games and a share of the conference title in 2007. They’ve suffered six-game losing streaks in back-to-back seasons and last year’s skid capped off a ninth-place finish in the conference. Still, the outlook for 2010 isn’t horrible. Fourth-year head coach Dennis Erickson has a solid defensive nucleus, and the arrival of new offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone should make for an improved air attack and more excitement…With Mazzone in Tempe to revitalize an offense that produced just 95 points in the season-ending six-game skid, opponents can expect a no-huddle attack geared toward chewing up yards through the air. The spring saw a spirited battle between redshirt junior Steven Threet and sophomore Brock Osweiler for the starting quarterback job, and it’ll carry over to August. Threet started eight games at Michigan in 2008. The line has been hit with a rash of injuries and needs stability. Multiple-receiver sets will be common so expect increased production and notoriety at wide receiver, while youth is the theme at tailback…Clouded by the poor record was a defense that led the Pac-10 in nearly every major category and ranked 13th in the country in fewest yards allowed (297.6 YPG). The unit packs a punch up front. Graduation was tough on the linebacker corps but Vontaze Burfict is a star in the making and the other starters are solid…With Portland State and Northern Arizona visiting in its first two games, Arizona State should build some confidence while opening 2-0 for the second year in a row. But with Oregon as their first conference opponent, followed by three straight on the road, the Sun Devils won’t have an easy time surpassing last year’s win total.

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* ARIZONA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) at home in conference games since ‘07. The Average Score was ARIZONA 34.1, OPPONENT 21.6

ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS
Head Coach: Dennis Erickson, 4th year (19-17 SU)
2009 Record: 4-8 SU, 6-5 ATS
Offense: Multiple – Starters Returning: 7
Defense: Multiple – Starters Returning: 5

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +1.3 (#63 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -2.0 (#74 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 41 (#48 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 – PORTLAND ST
9/11 – N ARIZONA
9/18 – at Wisconsin
9/25 – OREGON
10/2 – at Oregon St
10/9 – at Washington
10/23 – at California
10/30 – WASHINGTON ST
11/6 – at USC
11/13 – STANFORD
11/26 – UCLA
12/2 – at Arizona

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 4-8, 19-18 (51%)
Overall ATS: 6-5, 16-19 (46%)
at Home ATS: 5-1, 12-8 (60%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 1-4, 4-11 (27%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-5, 12-15 (44%)
as Favorite ATS: 2-2, 11-8 (58%)
as Underdog ATS: 4-3, 5-11 (31%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 38.25 (37)
Points Scored – Allowed: 22.3 (91) – 21.1 (26)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 335.3 (90) – 297.6 (13)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 5.03 (97) – 4.76 (21)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 3.78 (79) – 3.39 (21)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 6.16 (104) – 6.20 (23)
Turnover Differential: -0.2 (72)

2010 OUTLOOK
Though spanked by Nebraska in the Holiday Bowl, the Wildcats had their moments and are no longer a pushover. Arizona won five of six home games, falling only in double overtime to Oregon, and beat USC on the road. They’ve have won eight games in back-to-back campaigns, and after going 10 years without a bowl appearance they’re gunning for a third straight. The return of 17 starters, including 10 on offense, provides head coach Mike Stoops with a solid foundation…Arizona averaged 31 PPG in three years with Sonny Dykes as coordinator. Ten starters are back in the fold, but not Dykes, who left to become head coach at Louisiana Tech. Balance was one of the Wildcats’ biggest assets—they passed for 2,927 yards and 20 touchdowns and rushed for 2,072 yards and 19 scores—and this season should be no different with junior Nick Foles leading the air assault and senior Nic Grigsby the ground attack. Up front, senior center Colin Baxter has made 37 consecutive starts and leads a line that yielded only 13 sacks…Four starters return to a defense that also lost its coordinator—Mark Stoops–who accepted the same position at Florida State. Last year’s unit was particularly strong against the run, holding opponents to 3.87 yards per carry, and also managed 34 sacks. Senior ends Ricky Elmore and Brooks Reed give the Wildcats a pair of physical pass rushers, and two solid secondary performers are back, but no starters return at linebacker…A fast start is mandatory and likely. The Wildcats play three of their first four conference games at home, with a trip to Washington State mixed in. As long as Grigsby stays healthy and the revamped defense jells, the wins will outweigh the losses and Stoops will guide the troops to another bowl appearance.

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* ARIZONA ST is 10-2 UNDER the total (+7.8 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since ‘07. The Average Score was ARIZONA ST 23, OPPONENT 23.7

CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS
Head Coach: Jeff Tedford, 9th year (67-35 SU)
2009 Record: 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS
Offense: Multiple – Starters Returning: 9
Defense: 4-3 – Starters Returning: 7

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +3.6 (#50 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +0.4 (#67 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 44 (#35 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 – CAL DAVIS
9/11 – COLORADO
9/17 – at Nevada
9/25 – at Arizona
10/9 – UCLA
10/16 – at USC
10/23 – ARIZONA ST
10/30 – at Oregon St
11/6 – at Washington St
11/13 – OREGON
11/20 – STANFORD
11/27 – WASHINGTON

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 8-5, 24-15 (62%)
Overall ATS: 6-7, 19-20 (49%)
at Home ATS: 3-3, 12-7 (63%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-4, 7-13 (35%)
vs Conference ATS: 3-6, 12-15 (44%)
as Favorite ATS: 4-6, 15-16 (48%)
as Underdog ATS: 1-1, 3-4 (43%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 38 (39)
Points Scored – Allowed: 29.1 (48) – 25.5 (60)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 392.0 (50) – 377.9 (71)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 5.89 (38) – 5.53 (68)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 4.66 (31) – 3.34 (19)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 7.37 (47) – 7.62 (90)
Turnover Differential: +0.3 (35)

2010 OUTLOOK
The Golden Bears are seeking a ninth straight winning season under Jeff Tedford, who is the longest tenured head coach in the Pac-10 and eight victories away from surpassing Andy Smith as the school’s all-time leader. Cal has been ranked in the Top 10 at some point in five of the last seven years and is 5-2 in bowl games over that same span. Tedford brings back 20 players who started at least four games from last year’s 8-5 squad that closed with a disappointing loss to Utah in the Poinsettia Bowl, and the experience should put the Golden Bears square in the conference title picture…A unit that posted an average of 29.1 PPG, and enjoyed practically an equal share of rushing (2,203 yards, 27 touchdowns) and passing (2,895, 18) success, should continue to thrive despite the departure of tailback Jahvid Best to the NFL. Still, Best’s replacement, Shane Vereen, is a bonafide threat. At quarterback, senior Kevin Riley is expected to keep his job as the starter but he could be challenged. He was sacked 31 times, but that number could shrink thanks to return of 80 percent of the starting line…The stop unit failed to pull its weight last December, allowing 42 points against Washington in the conference finale and 37 to Utah in the bowl defeat. Senior linebacker Mike Mohamed is the catalyst and someone bound to wear a pro uniform. He’s the reigning Pac-10 tackles leader (112). In all, seven defensive starters are back…There’s a lot to like on both sides of the ball. The non-conference slate should be challenging enough where the Golden Bears need to do more than show up, and the Pac-10 schedule doesn’t get hairy until a trip to USC in mid-October. A double-digit win season isn’t out of the question.

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* CALIFORNIA is 7-0 ATS (+7 Units) at home revenging an upset loss against opponent as a favorite since ‘07. The Average Score was CALIFORNIA 41.7, OPPONENT 18.6

OREGON DUCKS
Head Coach: Chip Kelly, 2nd year (10-3 SU)
2009 Record: 10-3 SU, 7-6 ATS
Offense: Multiple – Starters Returning: 8
Defense: 4-3 – Starters Returning: 7

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +12.3 (#16 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +16.5 (#10 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 56 (#7 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 – NEW MEXICO
9/11 – at Tennessee
9/18 – PORTLAND ST
9/25 – at Arizona St
10/2 – STANFORD
10/9 – at Washington St
10/21 – UCLA
10/30 – at USC
11/6 – WASHINGTON
11/13 – at California
11/26 – ARIZONA
12/4 – at Oregon St

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 10-3, 29-10 (74%)
Overall ATS: 7-6, 23-16 (59%)
at Home ATS: 5-2, 13-7 (65%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 2-4, 10-9 (53%)
vs Conference ATS: 6-3, 16-11 (59%)
as Favorite ATS: 5-5, 18-13 (58%)
as Underdog ATS: 2-1, 5-3 (63%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 43.77 (1)
Points Scored – Allowed: 36.1 (8) – 23.8 (51)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 412.0 (33) – 336.3 (35)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 6.05 (27) – 4.59 (12)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 5.51 (4) – 3.37 (20)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 6.93 (74) – 5.92 (15)
Turnover Differential: +0.2 (51)

2010 OUTLOOK
Way to go, Chip. The Ducks, who won 116 games in 14 seasons with Mike Belotti at the helm, not only kept the ball rolling under head coach Chip Kelly but captured the Pac-10 title and were ranked seventh in the country prior to losing the Rose Bowl to Ohio State. Coming off a second straight 10-3 campaign, Oregon’s chances of repeating as conference champion took a serious hit when quarterback Jeremiah Masoli, a potential Heisman Trophy candidate, was slapped with a season-long suspension. Fifteen other starters return, so nobody’s throwing in the towel…The Ducks averaged 36.1 PPG, thanks in large part to a running game that totaled 38 touchdowns and racked up an average of 231.7 yards per game. Masoli will be dearly missed, but fifth-year senior Nate Costa may prove capable. Of the 2,213 yards produced on the ground by Oregon’s running backs, the sources of 1,979 of it returns. Sophomores LaMichael James (1,546 yards, 14 touchdowns) and Kenjon Barner (366, 3) lead a deep group. The quarterback will have an experienced group of wide receivers at his disposal too, and the entire starting line remains intact…The defense had more positive moments than not and was particularly strong against the run, holding the competition to 128.7 RYPG, including 3.37 yards per carry. Coordinator Nick Aliotti will be counting on a wealth of talent at linebacker to lead the unit once again, which returns seven of 11 starters…Nobody is underestimating the loss of Masoli, who let down the entire Duck Nation. Most of Oregon’s tough opponents—Tennessee, USC, California and Oregon State—are on the road, presenting an even bigger challenge with a relatively inexperienced player under center. The Ducks probably won’t produce another 10-win campaign, but don’t count them out. Football Spreads

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* OREGON is on a 7-0 ATS (+7 Units) run vs. terrible defensive teams – allowing >=6.25 YPP . The Average Score was OREGON 50.7, OPPONENT 15

OREGON STATE BEAVERS
Head Coach: Mike Riley, 8th year (64-47 SU)
2009 Record: 8-5 SU, 7-5 ATS
Offense: Multiple – Starters Returning: 9
Defense: Multiple – Starters Returning: 8

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +6.5 (#42 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +6.8 (#36 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 48 (#20 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 – vs. TCU (Arlington, TX)
9/18 – LOUISVILLE
9/25 – at Boise St
10/2 – ARIZONA ST
10/9 – at Arizona
10/16 – at Washington
10/30 – CALIFORNIA
11/6 – at UCLA
11/13 – WASHINGTON ST
11/20 – USC
11/27 – at Stanford
12/4 – OREGON

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 8-5, 26-13 (67%)
Overall ATS: 7-5, 24-13 (65%)
at Home ATS: 2-3, 10-6 (63%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 5-2, 14-7 (67%)
vs Conference ATS: 7-2, 19-8 (70%)
as Favorite ATS: 2-4, 13-9 (59%)
as Underdog ATS: 5-1, 11-4 (73%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 38.62 (34)
Points Scored – Allowed: 31.5 (26) – 25.0 (57)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 410.6 (34) – 349.5 (46)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 5.81 (43) – 5.42 (63)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 4.13 (66) – 3.79 (47)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 7.36 (49) – 6.85 (48)
Turnover Differential: +0.4 (30)

2010 OUTLOOK
Oregon State’s perfect record in bowls under head coach Mike Riley is no longer, with BYU ending the winning streak at five by taking a 44-20 decision in Las Vegas, however the Beavers tied for second place in the Pac-10 for a second straight season and won at least eight games for a third consecutive year. With the electrifying Rodgers brothers—senior wide receiver James and junior running back Jacquizz—serving as one of the premier one-two punches in the nation, and a solid supporting cast behind them, a conference title and major bowl is well within reach…Corvallis is Mr. Rodgers’ neighborhood. James and Jacquizz combined for 1,743 yards rushing, 1,556 yards receiving and 32 touchdowns to lead an offense that averaged 31.5 PPG and over 410 YPG. Jacquizz Rodgers is a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate. James Rodgers is a triple threat likely to become the Beavers’ all-time leader in all-purpose yards. The biggest question mark facing the offense is quarterback. Topping the depth chart is sophomore Ryan Katz, who has four games of experience. The line returns largely intact and is led by senior center Alex Linnenkohl…A year after the lack of a consistent pass rush and late-game performance plagued the unit, the Beavers are counting on their front four to return to previous form. Senior Stephen Paea, who declined to enter the NFL Draft, is one of the premier tackles in the nation. The secondary is the deepest position and needs to step up in the turnover department…Perhaps the toughest trio of out-of-conference games within the nation makes for a challenging September—TCU, Louisville and Boise State. Although getting Cal, USC and Oregon in Corvallis helps the cause within the Pac-10. The Rodgers boys are sure to thrill and thus the Beavers will fight for the top spot.

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* OREGON ST is 14-2 ATS (+11.8 Units) on the road after the first month of the season since ‘07. The Average Score was OREGON ST 28.3, OPPONENT 21.6

STANFORD CARDINAL
Head Coach: Jim Harbaugh, 4th year (17-20 SU)
2009 Record: 8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS
Offense: Multiple – Starters Returning: 8
Defense: 4-3-4 – Starters Returning: 6

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +8.9 (#27 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +9.5 (#26 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 50 (#17 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 – SACRAMENTO ST
9/11 – at UCLA
9/18 – WAKE FOREST
9/25 – at Notre Dame
10/2 – at Oregon
10/9 – USC
10/23 – WASHINGTON ST
10/30 – at Washington
11/6 – ARIZONA
11/13 – at Arizona St
11/20 – at California
11/27 – OREGON ST

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 8-5, 17-20 (46%)
Overall ATS: 8-5, 20-17 (54%)
at Home ATS: 5-2, 13-7 (65%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-3, 7-10 (41%)
vs Conference ATS: 6-3, 15-12 (56%)
as Favorite ATS: 5-3, 8-5 (62%)
as Underdog ATS: 3-2, 12-12 (50%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 41.38 (14)
Points Scored – Allowed: 35.5 (12) – 26.5 (69)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 427.6 (18) – 402.8 (90)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 6.55 (10) – 5.96 (93)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 5.29 (6) – 4.23 (79)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 8.70 (9) – 7.56 (86)
Turnover Differential: +0.0 (61)

2010 OUTLOOK
Perhaps no team in the country is going to miss a player as much as Stanford will Heisman Trophy runner-up Toby Gerhart, who scored 28 touchdowns and averaged 144 yards rushing per game to lead the Cardinal to its first winning season since 2001. Head coach Jim Harbaugh welcomes back a healthy portion of the starters—eight on offense, six on defense—from an exciting Sun Bowl defeat to Oklahoma, 31-27, and will be counting on sophomore quarterback Andrew Luck to take another step and help the program to another bowl appearance…Especially considering Gerhart’s departure, a repeat performance can’t be expected after Stanford set a new school record for points in a season with 461, an average of 35.5 PPG. Luck kept defenses honest enough with 2,575 yards through the air and 13 touchdowns, with only four interceptions. His mobility was a big reason why the Cardinal allowed only seven sacks, the second-fewest in the nation next to Boise State. Eighty percent of the starting line is back, and Luck’s group of targets is led by wideouts Ryan Whalen and Chris Owusu…After a Jekyll-and-Hyde campaign that saw five opponents score 31 points or more and five others held to 17 or fewer, the Cardinal brings back more than half of their starters, including three of the top four tacklers. More takeaways (17) is one thing that would please new coordinator Vic Fangio…Back-to-back games at Oregon and home against USC to open October could determine the Cardinal’s ultimate direction. As long as the ground attack does enough to balance the offense, Stanford will finish in the upper half of the Pac-10 again.

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* Over the L2 seasons, STANFORD is 8-0 ATS (+8 Units) vs. good teams – outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG. The Average Score was STANFORD 33.1, OPPONENT 28.4

UCLA BRUINS
Head Coach: Rick Neuheisel, 3rd year (11-14 SU)
2009 Record: 7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS
Offense: Multiple – Starters Returning: 7
Defense: 4-3 – Starters Returning: 5

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +0.8 (#66 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +2.5 (#56 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 41 (#48 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 – at Kansas St
9/11 – STANFORD
9/18 – HOUSTON
9/25 – at Texas
10/2 – WASHINGTON ST
10/9 – at California
10/21 – at Oregon
10/30 – ARIZONA
11/6 – OREGON ST
11/13 – at Washington
11/26 – at Arizona St
12/4 – USC

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 7-6, 17-21 (45%)
Overall ATS: 7-6, 23-15 (61%)
at Home ATS: 3-3, 13-6 (68%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 4-3, 10-9 (53%)
vs Conference ATS: 3-6, 15-12 (56%)
as Favorite ATS: 5-1, 10-4 (71%)
as Underdog ATS: 2-5, 13-10 (57%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 40.54 (22)
Points Scored – Allowed: 22.0 (94) – 21.2 (27)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 337.4 (88) – 334.0 (32)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 5.12 (90) – 5.19 (46)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 3.54 (98) – 3.96 (64)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 6.64 (91) – 6.77 (45)
Turnover Differential: +0.5 (26)

2010 OUTLOOK
UCLA has sputtered to back-to-back 3-6 finishes in the Pac-10 in Rick Neuheisel’s second head coaching stint, but the big difference between 2009 and the previous season was the Bruins’ success in non-conference games. They went 4-0, including a win at Tennessee and a victory over Temple in the Eagle Bank Bowl. The Bruins need to get their offense going if they want to move up the conference ranks and qualify for a more prestigious bowl. They’ve averaged fewer than 20 points over their last 25 games, but the return of their starting quarterback, leading rusher and leading receiver is reason for optimism…Coordinator Norm Chow was brought to campus prior to the 2008 season to get UCLA’s offense up to standards. However, it has yet to happen. The unit averaged 30 points in the team’s last four victories and will seek to carry over the success. Sophomore quarterback Kevin Prince brings a strong arm and experience to the table. The return of the top two wide receivers in terms of receptions and yards—juniors Taylor Embree (45 catches, 608 yards) and Nelson Rosario (42, 723)—can only aid Prince’s growth. The line is full of depth with seven players with starting experience, while the backfield boasts minimal returning production beyond Johnathan Franklin…The Bruins return five starters to a unit that ranked near the top of the Pac-10 in total yardage (334.0 YPG) and scoring (21.2 PPG). The unquestioned leaders of the unit are All-America junior free safety Rahim Moore, and junior linebacker Akeem Ayers…October killed the Bruins a year ago as they lost all five games. This year, it could be September…The defense can only be counted on to do so much, and if Chow doesn’t get the offense to click it’ll be another mediocre finish.

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* UCLA is on a 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) run in the first two weeks of the season . The Average Score was UCLA 30.2, OPPONENT 20.3

USC TROJANS
Head Coach: Lane Kiffin, 1st year (First Year SU)
2009 Record: 9-4 SU, 4-9 ATS
Offense: Multiple – Starters Returning: 5
Defense: 4-3 – Starters Returning: 6

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: +6.6 (#41 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +7.7 (#32 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 51 (#13 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/2 – at Hawaii
9/11 – VIRGINIA
9/18 – at Minnesota
9/25 – at Washington St
10/2 – WASHINGTON
10/9 – at Stanford
10/16 – CALIFORNIA
10/30 – OREGON
11/6 – ARIZONA ST
11/13 – at Arizona
11/20 – at Oregon St
11/27 – NOTRE DAME
12/4 – at UCLA

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 9-4, 32-7 (82%)
Overall ATS: 4-9, 19-20 (49%)
at Home ATS: 2-4, 9-9 (50%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 2-5, 10-11 (48%)
vs Conference ATS: 2-7, 10-17 (37%)
as Favorite ATS: 4-9, 19-19 (50%)
as Underdog ATS: 0-0, 0-1 (0%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 41.23 (15)
Points Scored – Allowed: 26.5 (64) – 19.8 (22)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 389.1 (55) – 340.5 (40)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 6.19 (22) – 4.82 (23)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 4.95 (14) – 3.65 (38)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 7.63 (36) – 5.96 (16)
Turnover Differential: +0.0 (61)

2010 OUTLOOK
USC’s amazing nine-year run with Pete Carroll ended in January when he returned to the NFL and the Seahawks. Under Carroll, the Trojans won 97 of 116 games, two national championships and seven Pac-10 titles. The program is now in the hands of one of Carroll’s former assistants—Lane Kiffin—who last season guided Tennessee to a 7-6 mark in his first experience as a college head coach. Kiffin, who hired his father, Monte, as assistant head coach and heralded Ed Orgeron to run the defense, inherits a roster with 11 returning starters…Last year’s unit produced its fewest yards since 2001, but inexperience at the quarterback position, and a rash of injuries, had a lot to do with it. Freshman quarterback Matt Barkley set the tone for a bright future when he directed a late game-winning drive at Ohio State in Week 2. On the year, he completed nearly 60 percent of his passes for 2,735 yards and 15 touchdowns with 14 interceptions. The jury is out at tailback after Joe McKnight’s early departure to the NFL but surely someone will emerge. At wideout, senior Ronald Johnson has speed to burn and 11 touchdowns over the past two seasons and it’s his time to be “the man.” Three players return up front…The Trojans allowed 19.8 PPG after leading the country in scoring and pass defense the previous campaign. This year’s group will be tested out of the gate by pass-happy Hawaii. Developing cohesiveness and toughness are the biggest challenges facing Monte Kiffin, who has a half-dozen returning starters to lean on…Another fifth-place (tied) finish in the Pac-10? No way. The Trojans were bound to come down from the clouds, and they’ll want to re-establish themselves as one of the nation’s best. It won’t be easy, but the schedule is soft early and that should help Kiffin quickly restore confidence.

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* USC is 20-6 UNDER the total (+13.4 Units) in conference games since ‘07. The Average Score was USC 29.1, OPPONENT 15.9

WASHINGTON HUSKIES
Head Coach: Steve Sarkisian, 2nd year (5-7 SU)
2009 Record: 5-7 SU, 7-5 ATS
Offense: Multiple – Starters Returning: 10
Defense: 4-3 – Starters Returning: 6

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -0.6 (#73 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +1.6 (#61 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 41 (#48 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 – at BYU
9/11 – SYRACUSE
9/18 – NEBRASKA
10/2 – at USC
10/9 – ARIZONA ST
10/16 – OREGON ST
10/23 – at Arizona
10/30 – STANFORD
11/6 – at Oregon
11/13 – UCLA
11/27 – at California
12/4 – at Washington St

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 5-7, 9-28 (24%)
Overall ATS: 7-5, 14-23 (38%)
at Home ATS: 5-2, 9-12 (43%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 2-3, 5-11 (31%)
vs Conference ATS: 5-4, 8-19 (30%)
as Favorite ATS: 1-1, 3-5 (38%)
as Underdog ATS: 6-4, 11-18 (38%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 42.42 (5)
Points Scored – Allowed: 26.1 (69) – 26.7 (70)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 375.5 (62) – 389.5 (79)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 5.73 (50) – 6.17 (102)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 4.28 (59) – 4.52 (92)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 7.15 (60) – 7.96 (100)
Turnover Differential: +0.3 (34)

2010 OUTLOOK
After hitting rock bottom in 2008—becoming the first team in Pac-10 history to finish 0-12 while being outscored by an eye-popping 304 points—Washington got things pointed north in its first year under head coach Steve Sarkisian with a couple of winning streaks and five victories overall. The Huskies closed with a flurry, beating Washington State and California by a combined 72-10, and they’ll try to pick up where they left off behind 10 returning starters on offense, including highly touted quarterback Jake Locker…A year after failing to crack 20 points in all but two games, and averaging 13.2 per outing, Locker led a unit that surpassed 20 on eight occasions and almost doubled (26.1) the 2008 standard. Locker dazzled as a junior and has a deep group of weapons at his disposal, with five players who caught at least 25 balls. Experience is thick up front with seniors Cody Habben, Ryan Tolar and Gregory Christine, and junior Senio Kelemete…When the defense was shining, good things happened for the Huskies. The unit allowed 23 points or fewer in four of five wins and for the year gave up 143 fewer points than 2008. A wealth of experience returns to the secondary, and the face of the defense is senior weak-side linebacker Mason Foster. Developing a consistent pass rush in the wake of Daniel Te’o-Nesheim’s departure to the NFL will be a challenge…Nobody picked Washington to knock off USC and California, and on top of those upsets Sarkisian’s club came within inches of winning at Notre Dame and UCLA. Locker has all the tools and big plans after putting his NFL career on hold, but he’ll need as much support as he got last season to go out a happy Husky. NFL Spreads

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* WASHINGTON is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) on the road in conference games since ‘07. The Average Score was WASHINGTON 16.9, OPPONENT 36

WASHINGTON STATE COUGARS
Head Coach: Paul Wulff, 3rd year (3-22 SU)
2009 Record: 1-11 SU, 5-7 ATS
Offense: Spread – Starters Returning: 8
Defense: 4-3-4 – Starters Returning: 9

Key Strength Ratings
2009 Scoring Differential: -26.5 (#120 of 120)
2009 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -23.0 (#119 of 120)
2010 StatFox Power Rating: 17 (#112 of 120)

2010 SCHEDULE
9/4 – at Oklahoma St
9/11 – MONTANA ST
9/18 – at SMU
9/25 – USC
10/2 – at UCLA
10/9 – OREGON
10/16 – ARIZONA
10/23 – at Stanford
10/30 – at Arizona St
11/6 – CALIFORNIA
11/13 – at Oregon St
12/4 – WASHINGTON

SITUATIONAL RECORDS – 2009 (3-YR TOTAL)
Straight Up: 1-11, 8-29 (22%)
Overall ATS: 5-7, 15-21 (42%)
at Home ATS: 2-3, 7-9 (44%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-4, 8-12 (40%)
vs Conference ATS: 3-6, 11-16 (41%)
as Favorite ATS: 0-0, 2-2 (50%)
as Underdog ATS: 5-7, 13-19 (41%)

2009 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Strength of Schedule: 42.42 (6)
Points Scored – Allowed: 12.0 (119) – 38.5 (118)
Total YPG Gained – Allowed: 247.1 (119) – 533.3 (120)
Yards Per Play Gained – Allowed: 4.08 (119) – 7.40 (120)
Yards Per Rush Gained – Allowed: 2.40 (118) – 5.95 (116)
Yards Per Pass Gained – Allowed: 5.69 (109) – 9.18 (120)
Turnover Differential: -0.4 (87)

2010 OUTLOOK
Paul Wulff brought a respectable head-coaching record to his alma mater but back-to-back dreadful seasons for the Cougars took his mark from 13 games over .500 to six games under. They won only twice in Wulff’s first year on the job and needed overtime to secure their lone win of 2009, 30-27, at home over SMU. Washington State hardly put up a fight against any of its conference rivals, with nine losses by an average of a whopping 30.8 PPG. However, the return of 17 starters should allow it to play meaningful second halves at the very least…The Cougars failed to score more than 17 points in a Pac-10 game and closed with a thud, totaling just three touchdowns and 24 points in their last 16 quarters. Eight starters return to the unit, including a good chunk of the front line and the top four wide receivers. As a true freshman quarterback, Jeff Tuel held his own in five starts and completed 58.7 percent of his 121 pass attempts for 789 yards and six touchdowns, with five interceptions. However, the jury is out on a ground attack that produced merely 848 net yards and five touchdowns…The Cougars will try to avoid finishing last in the Pac-10 in scoring defense for a fourth straight season. Last year (38.5 PPG) wasn’t as bad as 2008 (43.8), but it’s tough to win when opponents are rolling up 533.3 yards and more than five touchdowns per game. The unit is experienced, with nine starters back. That may or may not be a good thing…Wulff is working with as much experience and depth as he’s had here, but the roster isn’t oozing with talent and anything more than three wins would be a big surprise.

SAMPLE TOP STATFOX POWER TREND FOR 2010
* WASHINGTON ST is on a 4-19 ATS (-16.9 Units) skid on the road after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread . The Average Score was WASHINGTON ST 14.3, OPPONENT 37.2


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04/18/2014
Brazil - Serie BPortuguesa SP at Joinville SC3:30 PM PST
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04/19/2014
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04/20/2014
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04/21/2014
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