TEXAS LONGHORNS (-3)
at TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS

Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EDT, Total: 55

Texas looks to avenge its painful last-second loss at Texas Tech from two years ago when the Big 12 rivals hook up for an ESPN primetime showdown in Lubbock. Texas Tech knocked the Longhorns out of the national championship picture in 2008 when Michael Crabtree scored the game-winning TD with one second left to give TTU a 39-33 win.

Texas has shown a more balanced attack minus Colt McCoy, with 48 percent of its yardage on the ground. Fozzy Whittaker was named the starting running back earlier this week, but Texas will also give the ball to Cody Johnson and Tre’ Newton. Considering sophomore quarterback Garrett Gilbert is making his first start on an opponent’s home field, the Longhorns would be wise to control the clock with their strong running game averaging 182 YPG this year.The Red Raiders like to air it out three times as much as they run the ball. QB Taylor Potts has thrown for 652 yards and seven touchdowns without throwing an INT in his 87 attempts. Potts threw for 420 yards and three touchdowns in last season’s 10-point loss to Texas.Texas is a mediocre 9-9 playing in Lubbock since 1974, but this FoxSheets trend favors a Longhorns win on Saturday night. Football Spreads

Play Against – Home underdogs (TEXAS TECH) – good passing team from last season – averaged 255 or more passing yards/game. (36-13 over the last 10 seasons.) (73.5%, +21.7 units. Rating = 2*). Football Lines

And Texas’ likely strategy to run the football is just one of the reasons to expect the game to go below the 55-point Total. FoxSheets shows two other trends favoring the Under:

Play Under – Home teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (TEXAS TECH) – first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first month of the season. (40-13 over the last 10 seasons.) (75.5%, +25.7 units. Rating = 3*). Football Betting Lines

Play Under – Any team against the total (TEXAS) – after allowing 100 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. (82-41 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.7%, +36.9 units. Rating = 2*).