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Matchup Reports

Monday at 7:10 PM
ATLANTA (18-12) AT CINCINNATI (18-14) 
 Starting Pitchers
TeamsLineW-LOv/Un/PRF/RAStartersRECERAWHIP
951: ATLANTA
952: CINCINNATI
7.5
-102
18-12
18-14
16-14-0
18-13-1
4.3 / 3.3
4.6 / 3.7
(L) P MAHOLM
(R) B ARROYO
3-3
2-3
3.08
3.95
1.08
1.07
Current Weather Conditions 
Conditions: Mostly Cloudy   Temperature: 54.0 °
Humidity: 47   Wind: South at 3.5 MPH (3 KT)
 
Power Rating Line
The power rating system is based on recent game results. The section should be used to compare the relative strength of the two teams involved. A power line is calculated using both teams ratings and home field advantage. Where the power line differs significantly from the current line, the team with the edge is indicated.
 Power Line
TeamPitcherEstimateEdge
ATLANTAMAHOLM-107 
CINCINNATIARROYO +107 
Team Trends and Angles
All team trends listed below apply to the current game.
ATLANTA team trends
 Win/Loss recordOver/Under
 Current YearLast 3 YearsSince 1997  CurrentLast 3   Since 1997
DescriptionW-LUnitsW-LUnitsW-LUnitsO-UO-UO-U
after a win11-5+5.4117-81+17.6847-675-58.98-887-104697-743
when playing against a team with a winning record8-5+2.878-67+7.3689-582+11.97-669-70614-583
in all games18-12+3.3201-154+15.51523-1165-22.516-14159-1801263-1290
on the road with a money line of -100 to -1252-3-1.434-39-10.7180-170-14.13-228-42147-189
in road games9-7+1.897-81+14.8719-622+8.69-783-88634-649
in May games1-3-3.832-29-3.1267-189+18.32-229-28218-220
when playing on Monday3-0+3.217-27-19.2149-129-29.91-218-26130-139
in games played on a grass field18-12+3.3199-153+141397-1088-4716-14158-1781166-1196
in night games13-8+3137-111-1.21035-818-62.112-9107-128841-909
against right-handed starters10-9-1.3140-97+20.21115-838-24.410-9107-119907-941

CINCINNATI team trends
 Win/Loss recordOver/Under
 Current YearLast 3 YearsSince 1997  CurrentLast 3   Since 1997
DescriptionW-LUnitsW-LUnitsW-LUnitsO-UO-UO-U
in night games8-8-2.4121-107-6.2834-872-21.97-997-116798-821
against left-handed starters7-4+2.459-45+7.1362-372-8.96-450-47339-359
after a win11-6+2.8100-97-17.3626-663-31.611-684-95582-629
after 3 or more consecutive wins1-3-4.628-23-3.5151-161-13.42-218-28134-160
when playing against a team with a winning record4-4-0.273-75-2.8546-675-11.24-367-70557-596
in all games18-14+0.5197-165+2.21289-1348-24.518-13165-1721235-1255
at home with a money line of -100 to -1253-1+1.830-19+8171-163-15.83-127-15160-157
in home games12-4+5.4105-77+0.3667-653-81.69-788-78649-597
in May games3-1+234-27+4229-230-3.53-132-25216-220
when playing on Monday4-1+3.221-22-4.6138-139+6.32-318-24143-126
in games played on a grass field18-14+0.5195-164+0.41058-1134-14.818-13165-1701015-1050
Current Season Results And Upcoming Games
Here are the most recent results and upcoming schedules for the two teams involved. Lines, total, game scores, results versus the spread, straight up and against the total are all displayed.
ATLANTA - Schedule
 Team StatsOpp Stats
DateTeam StarterOpponentOpp StarterScoreW/LLineTot.O/UHLOBEHLOBE
4/23/2013MINOR(L)@ COLORADOFRANCIS(L)4-3W-1209.5 unU970640
4/23/2013TEHERAN(R)@ COLORADOGARLAND(R)10-2W1109.5 unO14711290
4/24/2013HUDSON(R)@ COLORADOCHATWOOD(R)5-6L-1259.5 unO106015122
4/26/2013MAHOLM(L)@ DETROITSANCHEZ(R)0-10L1307.5 ovO55215100
4/27/2013MEDLEN(R)@ DETROITPORCELLO(R)4-7L-1058 unO7401390
4/28/2013MINOR(L)@ DETROITFISTER(R)3-8L1357.5 unO680940
4/29/2013TEHERAN(R)WASHINGTONSTRASBURG(R)3-2W+1157 ovU7601060
4/30/2013HUDSON(R)WASHINGTONGONZALEZ(L)8-1W-1157 ovO12100341
5/1/2013MAHOLM(L)WASHINGTONZIMMERMANN(R)0-2L-1357 unU220330
5/2/2013MEDLEN(R)WASHINGTONHAREN(R)1-3L-1507.5 unU5518100
5/3/2013MINOR(L)NY METSMARCUM(R)5-7L-1957.5 unO1070720
5/5/2013HUDSON(R)NY METSNIESE(L)9-4W-1607.5 unO1290660
5/6/2013MAHOLM(L)@ CINCINNATIARROYO(R) 
5/7/2013MEDLEN(R)@ CINCINNATIBAILEY(R) 
5/8/2013MINOR(L)@ CINCINNATILEAKE(R) 
5/9/2013TEHERAN(R)@ SAN FRANCISCOVOGELSONG(R) 
5/10/2013HUDSON(R)@ SAN FRANCISCOCAIN(R) 
5/11/2013MAHOLM(L)@ SAN FRANCISCOBUMGARNER(L) 
5/12/2013MEDLEN(R)@ SAN FRANCISCOLINCECUM(R) 
5/13/2013 @ ARIZONA  

CINCINNATI - Schedule
 Team StatsOpp Stats
DateTeam StarterOpponentOpp StarterScoreW/LLineTot.O/UHLOBEHLOBE
4/22/2013LEAKE(R)CHICAGO CUBSWOOD(L)5-4W-1608.5 unO99311120
4/23/2013CINGRANI(L)CHICAGO CUBSVILLANUEVA(R)2-4L-1707.5 ovU672951
4/24/2013LATOS(R)CHICAGO CUBSSAMARDZIJA(R)1-0W-1657 evU870550
4/25/2013ARROYO(R)@ WASHINGTONGONZALEZ(L)1-8L1257.5 unO1221260
4/26/2013BAILEY(R)@ WASHINGTONZIMMERMANN(R)0-1L1157 evU130631
4/27/2013LEAKE(R)@ WASHINGTONHAREN(R)3-6L-1058 unO9611081
4/28/2013CINGRANI(L)@ WASHINGTONDETWILER(L)5-2W-1057 ovP11101582
4/29/2013LATOS(R)@ ST LOUISWAINWRIGHT(R)2-1W1207 unU6507100
4/30/2013ARROYO(R)@ ST LOUISGARCIA(L)1-2L1307.5 ovU740740
5/1/2013BAILEY(R)@ ST LOUISLYNN(R)2-4L1057 ovU6501071
5/3/2013LEAKE(R)@ CHICAGO CUBSVILLANUEVA(R)6-5W1007 unO910015121
5/4/2013CINGRANI(L)@ CHICAGO CUBSSAMARDZIJA(R)6-4W-1157 unO680321
5/5/2013LATOS(R)@ CHICAGO CUBSJACKSON(R)7-4W-1357 ovO1171891
5/6/2013ARROYO(R)ATLANTAMAHOLM(L) 
5/7/2013BAILEY(R)ATLANTAMEDLEN(R) 
5/8/2013LEAKE(R)ATLANTAMINOR(L) 
5/10/2013CINGRANI(L)MILWAUKEEGALLARDO(R) 
5/11/2013LATOS(R)MILWAUKEEESTRADA(R) 
5/12/2013ARROYO(R)MILWAUKEEPERALTA(R) 
Team Statistics
Peformance statistics for each team in various situations are listed below. Categories where a team has performed poorly are denoted in red. Categories where a team has performed well are denoted in green.
ATLANTA - Current Season Performance
 Team RecordsTeamOpponent
 W-LUnitsO-URunsAvgOBPRunsAvgOBP
All Games18-12+3.316-144.30.2450.3183.30.2340.288
Road Games9-7+1.89-74.10.2450.3173.70.2480.310
vs Right-handed Starters10-9-1.310-93.90.2380.3033.40.2470.293
Past 7 Games3-4-2.74-34.10.2450.3283.90.2000.255
Grass Games18-12+3.316-144.30.2450.3183.30.2340.288
Night Games13-8+3.112-94.20.2410.3113.40.2350.294
ATLANTA - Team Hitting and Fielding Statistics
Team BattingTeam BattingTeam Fielding
 RunsAVGOBPGABHEBHR/ABRBIBBSOSBLOBGIDPERRDPOSB
All Games4.30.2450.3183099124391410.041241052721420027162417
Road Games4.10.2450.3171655013547200.04645814461151791510
Righty Starters3.90.2380.3031962614949230.047358180131231512178
ATLANTA - Bullpen Pitching Statistics
 ERAWHIPIPRERHHRBBSOW-LSVBSVPct.
All Games2.371.10083.7222265427706-29281.8%
Road Games2.381.21445.3121237218322-16185.7%

CINCINNATI - Current Season Performance
 Team RecordsTeamOpponent
 W-LUnitsO-URunsAvgOBPRunsAvgOBP
All Games18-14+0.518-134.60.2450.3243.70.2390.291
Home Games12-4+5.49-75.40.2640.3402.70.2090.258
vs Left-handed Starters7-4+2.46-45.00.2610.3413.60.2150.260
Past 7 Games5-2+3.23-34.10.2450.3243.10.2360.294
Grass Games18-14+0.518-134.60.2450.3243.70.2390.291
Night Games8-8-2.47-94.10.2290.3022.80.2290.271
CINCINNATI - Team Hitting and Fielding Statistics
Team BattingTeam BattingTeam Fielding
 RunsAVGOBPGABHEBHR/ABRBIBBSOSBLOBGIDPERRDPOSB
All Games4.60.2450.32432109526885280.031371292501024133152513
Home Games5.40.2640.3401657215149190.0378661355130158136
Lefty Starters5.00.2610.341114021053490.025249863961210133
CINCINNATI - Bullpen Pitching Statistics
 ERAWHIPIPRERHHRBBSOW-LSVBSVPct.
All Games3.821.18794.34340801332887-79281.8%
Home Games2.630.93551.3181535813615-44180%
Starting Pitcher Season to Date Performance
PAUL MAHOLM recent results and season statistics
PAUL MAHOLM - Season Statistics in Games Started
 Starter StatisticsTeam Records
 ERAWHIPW-LGIPIP/SRERHHRBBSOW-LUnitsO-U
All Starts3.081.0793-36386.3131328213323-3-0.43-3
Road Starts4.071.1912-2424.36.1111119110222-202-2
Last 3 Starts6.621.4150-3317.75.913131728120-3-3.61-2
PAUL MAHOLM - Recent Starts
DateOpponentScoreLine TotalResultDecIPRERHHRBBSOOpp Starter
5/1/2013WASHINGTON0-2-1357Loss,UnderL8223124ZIMMERMANN(R)
4/26/2013at DETROIT0-10+1307.5Loss,OverL3.78810033SANCHEZ(R)
4/20/2013at PITTSBURGH1-3-1307.5Loss,UnderL6334135MCDONALD(R)

BRONSON ARROYO recent results and season statistics
BRONSON ARROYO - Season Statistics in Games Started
 Starter StatisticsTeam Records
 ERAWHIPW-LGIPIP/SRERHHRBBSOW-LUnitsO-U
All Starts3.951.0732-36416.819183955183-3+0.12-4
Home Starts2.860.9552-03227.3771912143-0+3.11-2
Last 3 Starts3.861.1430-23217.0109213381-2-11-2
BRONSON ARROYO - Recent Starts
DateOpponentScoreLine TotalResultDecIPRERHHRBBSOOpp Starter
4/30/2013at ST LOUIS1-2+1307.5Loss,UnderL7226110GARCIA(L)
4/25/2013at WASHINGTON1-8+1257.5Loss,OverL6659212GONZALEZ(L)
4/20/2013MIAMI3-2-2208Win,Under 8226016LEBLANC(L)
Head-to-Head Series History
Listed below is a summary of the games results in recent Head-to-Head matchups.
Games over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 8-4 (+4.9 Units) against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.7 Units)
Games this season
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

All games at CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 6-1 (+5.2 Units) against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.8 Units)
Games played at CINCINNATI this season.
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

Pitcher Versus Team Past History
PAUL MAHOLM vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
MAHOLM is 7-4 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 3.70 and a WHIP of 1.338.
His team's record is 12-8 (+6.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 9-10. (-2.0 units)
PAUL MAHOLM recent starts vs. CINCINNATI
DateOpponentScoreLine TotalResultDecIPRERHHRBBSOOpp Starter
4/21/2012CINCINNATI6-1+1207.5Win,UnderW6114035LEAKE(R)
9/10/2010at CINCINNATI3-4+1908.5Loss,Under 7336038BAILEY(R)
8/3/2010CINCINNATI7-6+1158Win,OverW6449022LEAKE(R)

BRONSON ARROYO vs. ATLANTA since 1997
ARROYO is 6-3 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 5.36 and a WHIP of 1.640.
His team's record is 9-6 (+6.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 9-6. (+2.8 units)
BRONSON ARROYO recent starts vs. ATLANTA
DateOpponentScoreLine TotalResultDecIPRERHHRBBSOOpp Starter
5/23/2012ATLANTA2-1+1008.5Win,Under 6.7114127HANSON(R)
7/22/2011ATLANTA4-6+1059Loss,Over 6.7449322JURRJENS(R)
5/28/2011at ATLANTA6-7+1357.5Loss,Over 3559210LOWE(R)
Team Line Action - Where the money is going!
Oddsmakers move a line in part because of one-sided public betting action on a side or total. They also move the line in reaction to wise guys selections. Either way, this section attempts to uncover whether the wise guys and public have a read on a given team. It summarizes both line and total movements. As a general rule, follow the line or total movement when percentages exceed 57% and go against it when they are below 43%.
As indicated by the movement of the line, the betting public is favoring ATLANTA in this game.
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in ATLANTA games 0% of the time since 1997. (0-1032, 7.0 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in ATLANTA games 56.7% of the time over the last 3 seasons. (170-130, +27.9 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in CINCINNATI games 49.8% of the time since 1997. (1076-1083, -107.0 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in CINCINNATI games 47.5% of the time over the last 3 seasons. (143-158, -28.9 units)
Edge=CINCINNATI
 
The betting public is favoring nothing on the total in this game.
The betting public is correct when moving the total in ATLANTA games 49.9% of the time since 1997. (830-834, -114.4 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in ATLANTA games 51.5% of the time over the last 3 seasons. (88-83, -4.3 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in CINCINNATI games 52.4% of the time since 1997. (836-759, -27.2 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in CINCINNATI games 54% of the time over the last 3 seasons. (109-93, +5.4 units)
No Edge.
Key Player Injuries
ATLANTA
[P] 03/31/2013 - Brandon Beachy 15-day DL (3/22) ( Elbow )
[C] 05/06/2013 - Brian McCann 15-day DL (3/22), expected to be activated and in the starting lineup Monday vs Cincinnati ( Shoulder )
[RF] 04/23/2013 - Jason Heyward 15-day DL (4/21) ( Appendix )
[P] 04/02/2013 - Jonny Venters 15-day DL (3/27) ( Elbow )
[SS] 03/31/2013 - Paul Janish 15-day DL (3/22) ( Shoulder )
[P] 04/30/2013 - Luis Ayala 15-day DL (4/25) ( Hypertension )
CINCINNATI
[LF] 04/03/2013 - Ryan Ludwick 60-day DL (4/2) ( Shoulder )
[P] 04/14/2013 - Johnny Cueto 15-day DL (4/14) ( Side )
[LF] 04/30/2013 - Chris Heisey 15-day DL (4/28) ( Hamstring )
[P] 04/26/2013 - Manny Parra 15-day DL (4/24) ( Undisclosed )
[P] 04/02/2013 - Nick Masset 60-day DL (3/22) ( Shoulder )
[C] 04/21/2013 - Ryan Hanigan 15-day DL (4/20) ( Oblique )
© Sports Handicapping Information All Rights Reserved.

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