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Matchup Reports

Sunday at 1:35 PM
CINCINNATI (88-67) AT PITTSBURGH (89-66) 
 Starting Pitchers
TeamsLineW-LOv/Un/PRF/RAStartersRECERAWHIP
903: CINCINNATI
904: PITTSBURGH
6.5
-117
88-67
89-66
74-74-7
68-81-6
4.4 / 3.6
3.9 / 3.6
(R) B ARROYO
(L) J LOCKE
13-11
10-6
3.56
3.27
1.13
1.36
Current Weather Conditions 
Conditions: Partly Cloudy   Temperature: 57.0 °
Humidity: 30   Wind: Southwest at 11.5 MPH (10 KT)
 
Power Rating Line
The power rating system is based on recent game results. The section should be used to compare the relative strength of the two teams involved. A power line is calculated using both teams ratings and home field advantage. Where the power line differs significantly from the current line, the team with the edge is indicated.
 Power Line
TeamPitcherEstimateEdge
CINCINNATIARROYO-109 
PITTSBURGHLOCKE +109 
Team Trends and Angles
All team trends listed below apply to the current game.
CINCINNATI team trends
 Win/Loss recordOver/Under
 Current YearLast 3 YearsSince 1997  CurrentLast 3   Since 1997
DescriptionW-LUnitsW-LUnitsW-LUnitsO-UO-UO-U
in all games88-67+1267-218+2.81359-1401-2474-74221-2331291-1316
when the total is 7 or less18-10+742-33+7.554-69-10.112-1231-3449-55
as a road underdog of +100 to +12510-12-132-32+3.2196-191+3110-1127-35170-198
in road games40-40-5.3126-118+1.6655-725+55.739-38107-126616-690
on the road when the total is 7 or less14-9+4.136-30+5.148-62-8.511-928-3044-49
in September games12-7+1.939-32-2.7228-215+17.29-925-38186-217
when playing on Sunday11-13-6.443-34+1.2203-234-36.712-1138-33204-201
against division opponents39-33-5.8130-100+3648-641+3.635-35103-112606-602
in day games34-24+2.6100-76+8.2474-491-6.429-2686-78452-451
in games played on a grass field88-67+1265-217+11128-1187-14.374-74221-2311071-1111
against left-handed starters26-24-1.978-65+2.8381-392-13.218-2962-72351-384
after a loss42-24+12.8130-84+32.6694-697+23.629-35102-104672-649
when playing against a team with a winning record34-34-4.6103-105-7.3576-705-15.730-3193-98583-624
when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season19-14+4.147-44+0.6261-351-24.814-1441-40278-290

PITTSBURGH team trends
 Win/Loss recordOver/Under
 Current YearLast 3 YearsSince 1997  CurrentLast 3   Since 1997
DescriptionW-LUnitsW-LUnitsW-LUnitsO-UO-UO-U
in all games89-66+21240-239+17.51204-1537-112.768-81215-2421283-1321
when the total is 7 or less35-26+755-61-4.380-105-12.224-3345-6077-88
at home with a money line of -100 to -1256-6-0.929-28-2.9178-153+5.35-723-32157-157
in home games50-30+12131-111+7.4683-688+1631-45101-132642-662
at home when the total is 7 or less20-16-0.630-31-6.638-47-12.812-2118-3732-44
in September games10-10-2.827-47-24176-270-62.89-1033-35218-200
when playing on Sunday13-11+3.634-42-5176-261-58.310-1437-36213-209
against division opponents40-29+10.9118-112+14564-713-42.430-36107-113591-612
in day games29-26+5.484-83+11.6372-521-73.528-2682-78431-423
in games played on a grass field89-66+21238-238+15.9989-1304-107.268-81214-2401053-1122
against right-handed starters72-53+19178-185+10898-1148-76.853-68162-184972-967
after a win50-38+10.7115-123-5.2538-668-52.843-43111-115566-583
when playing against a team with a winning record33-31+6.697-112+11.2564-800-49.836-26103-96639-657
when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season14-14-0.141-56-6.3254-403-52.315-1249-44302-321
Current Season Results And Upcoming Games
Here are the most recent results and upcoming schedules for the two teams involved. Lines, total, game scores, results versus the spread, straight up and against the total are all displayed.
CINCINNATI - Schedule
 Team StatsOpp Stats
DateTeam StarterOpponentOpp StarterScoreW/LLineTot.O/UHLOBEHLOBE
9/8/2013BAILEY(R)LA DODGERSKERSHAW(L)3-2W+1156.5 ovU671640
9/9/2013ARROYO(R)CHICAGO CUBSWOOD(L)0-2L-1757.5 ovU790760
9/10/2013CINGRANI(L)CHICAGO CUBSJACKSON(R)1-9L-2508 ovO10911380
9/11/2013LEAKE(R)CHICAGO CUBSSAMARDZIJA(R)6-0W-1708.5 unU860670
9/13/2013LATOS(R)@ MILWAUKEELOHSE(R)1-5L-1457.5 unU441980
9/14/2013BAILEY(R)@ MILWAUKEEHELLWEG(R)7-3W-1908 ovO10906102
9/15/2013ARROYO(R)@ MILWAUKEEGALLARDO(R)5-6L-1308 unO880531
9/16/2013CUETO(R)@ HOUSTONBEDARD(L)6-1W-1758 ovU770761
9/17/2013LEAKE(R)@ HOUSTONLYLES(R)10-0W-1758.5 unO1251561
9/18/2013REYNOLDS(R)@ HOUSTONPEACOCK(R)6-5W-1459 evO915013161
9/20/2013LATOS(R)@ PITTSBURGHLIRIANO(L)6-5W1106.5 unO9701051
9/21/2013BAILEY(R)@ PITTSBURGHBURNETT(R)2-4L1007 unU542550
9/22/2013ARROYO(R)@ PITTSBURGHLOCKE(L) 
9/23/2013CUETO(R)NY METSHARANG(R) 
9/24/2013LEAKE(R)NY METSNIESE(L) 
9/25/2013LATOS(R)NY METSMATSUZAKA(R) 
9/27/2013BAILEY(R)PITTSBURGHBURNETT(R) 
9/28/2013ARROYO(R)PITTSBURGHLOCKE(L) 
9/29/2013 PITTSBURGH  

PITTSBURGH - Schedule
 Team StatsOpp Stats
DateTeam StarterOpponentOpp StarterScoreW/LLineTot.O/UHLOBEHLOBE
9/8/2013MORTON(R)@ ST LOUISWACHA(R)2-9L1207.5 evO4411282
9/9/2013COLE(R)@ TEXASDARVISH(R)1-0W1557.5 unU640450
9/10/2013LIRIANO(L)@ TEXASPEREZ(L)5-4W1158 ovO121001392
9/11/2013BURNETT(R)@ TEXASGARZA(R)7-5W1208 ovO1280960
9/12/2013LOCKE(L)CHICAGO CUBSRUSIN(L)3-1W-1707.5 unU650450
9/13/2013MORTON(R)CHICAGO CUBSARRIETA(R)4-5L-1707 unO971981
9/14/2013COLE(R)CHICAGO CUBSBAKER(R)2-1W-1857 unU540560
9/15/2013LIRIANO(L)CHICAGO CUBSWOOD(L)3-2W-1756.5 unU760350
9/16/2013BURNETT(R)SAN DIEGOCASHNER(R)0-2L-1706.5 unU1008100
9/17/2013LOCKE(L)SAN DIEGOSTULTS(L)2-5L-1807 unP77014101
9/18/2013MORTON(R)SAN DIEGOROSS(R)2-3L-1657 unU300660
9/19/2013COLE(R)SAN DIEGOKENNEDY(R)10-1W-1857 unO14100581
9/20/2013LIRIANO(L)CINCINNATILATOS(R)5-6L-1206.5 unO1051970
9/21/2013BURNETT(R)CINCINNATIBAILEY(R)4-2W-1107 unU550542
9/22/2013LOCKE(L)CINCINNATIARROYO(R) 
9/23/2013MORTON(R)@ CHICAGO CUBSSAMARDZIJA(R) 
9/24/2013COLE(R)@ CHICAGO CUBSRUSIN(L) 
9/25/2013LIRIANO(L)@ CHICAGO CUBSARRIETA(R) 
9/27/2013BURNETT(R)@ CINCINNATIBAILEY(R) 
9/28/2013LOCKE(L)@ CINCINNATIARROYO(R) 
9/29/2013 @ CINCINNATI  
Team Statistics
Peformance statistics for each team in various situations are listed below. Categories where a team has performed poorly are denoted in red. Categories where a team has performed well are denoted in green.
CINCINNATI - Current Season Performance
 Team RecordsTeamOpponent
 W-LUnitsO-URunsAvgOBPRunsAvgOBP
All Games88-67+174-744.40.2500.3223.60.2360.292
Road Games40-40-5.339-384.30.2470.3213.60.2430.299
vs Left-handed Starters26-24-1.918-293.80.2380.3053.50.2290.279
Past 7 Games5-2+2.85-26.00.2390.3373.40.2240.322
Grass Games88-67+174-744.40.2500.3223.60.2360.292
Day Games34-24+2.629-264.70.2500.3293.80.2350.292
Division39-33-5.835-354.20.2390.3163.90.2390.301
CINCINNATI - Team Hitting and Fielding Statistics
Team BattingTeam BattingTeam Fielding
 RunsAVGOBPGABHEBHR/ABRBIBBSOSBLOBGIDPERRDPOSB
All Games4.40.2500.322155526513164321530.0364355912026011371467512266
Road Games4.30.2470.321802742678214720.033332975953658291386743
Lefty Starters3.80.2380.305501694404146500.031791633921336344173715
CINCINNATI - Bullpen Pitching Statistics
 ERAWHIPIPRERHHRBBSOW-LSVBSVPct.
All Games3.441.198441.71791693555317446223-24431574.1%
Road Games3.521.252202827917019831839-14211165.6%

PITTSBURGH - Current Season Performance
 Team RecordsTeamOpponent
 W-LUnitsO-URunsAvgOBPRunsAvgOBP
All Games89-66+2168-813.90.2450.3053.60.2370.303
Home Games50-30+1231-453.80.2490.3063.20.2300.291
vs Right-handed Starters72-53+18.953-683.80.2420.3013.50.2340.299
Past 7 Games3-4-3.42-43.70.2180.2783.00.2150.296
Grass Games89-66+2168-813.90.2450.3053.60.2370.303
Day Games29-26+5.428-264.00.2430.3083.90.2320.303
Division40-29+10.930-363.90.2450.3083.70.2290.293
PITTSBURGH - Team Hitting and Fielding Statistics
Team BattingTeam BattingTeam Fielding
 RunsAVGOBPGABHEBHR/ABRBIBBSOSBLOBGIDPERRDPOSB
All Games3.90.2450.305155524412874441470.03572448127490107413610214591
Home Games3.80.2490.306802655661214670.032912205885054773507943
Righty Starters3.80.2420.301125419310133581200.034553581027728451138111976
PITTSBURGH - Bullpen Pitching Statistics
 ERAWHIPIPRERHHRBBSOW-LSVBSVPct.
All Games2.871.162519.91741664373616743028-20521478.8%
Home Games2.371.0832777873222107822817-926778.8%
Starting Pitcher Season to Date Performance
BRONSON ARROYO recent results and season statistics
BRONSON ARROYO - Season Statistics in Games Started
 Starter StatisticsTeam Records
 ERAWHIPW-LGIPIP/SRERHHRBBSOW-LUnitsO-U
All Starts3.561.12813-1130192.36.47976186253111916-14+0.115-14
Road Starts4.241.1844-71274.36.23635721116334-8-4.36-6
Last 3 Starts2.661.0330-1320.36.8761734110-3-4.22-1
BRONSON ARROYO - Recent Starts
DateOpponentScoreLine TotalResultDecIPRERHHRBBSOOpp Starter
9/15/2013at MILWAUKEE5-6-1308Loss,Over 6.3223141GALLARDO(R)
9/9/2013CHICAGO CUBS0-2-1757.5Loss,UnderL7227206WOOD(L)
9/4/2013ST LOUIS4-5-1158Loss,Over 7327004MILLER(R)

JEFF LOCKE recent results and season statistics
JEFF LOCKE - Season Statistics in Games Started
 Starter StatisticsTeam Records
 ERAWHIPW-LGIPIP/SRERHHRBBSOW-LUnitsO-U
All Starts3.271.36110-629165.45.76460143108212415-14+0.711-16
Home Starts4.411.5185-31581.75.4424089835569-6+1.96-7
Last 3 Starts3.711.2351-23175.7871318141-2-1.80-2
JEFF LOCKE - Recent Starts
DateOpponentScoreLine TotalResultDecIPRERHHRBBSOOpp Starter
9/17/2013SAN DIEGO2-5-1807LossL5447135STULTS(L)
9/12/2013CHICAGO CUBS3-1-1707.5Win,UnderW7113015RUSIN(L)
9/7/2013at ST LOUIS0-5+1507.5Loss,UnderL5323044WAINWRIGHT(R)
Head-to-Head Series History
Listed below is a summary of the games results in recent Head-to-Head matchups.
Games over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 25-23 (+8.3 Units) against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
27 of 42 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+9.5 Units)
Games this season
PITTSBURGH is 8-7 (+3.2 Units) against CINCINNATI this season
8 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)

All games at PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 14-12 (+2.8 Units) against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
17 of 24 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+9.1 Units)
Games played at PITTSBURGH this season.
PITTSBURGH is 5-3 (+2.4 Units) against CINCINNATI this season
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.4 Units, Under=-0.6 Units)

 Team StatsStarting Pitcher Stats
DateTeamsScoreLineTotalResultHHRSBLOBERRStarterW/LIPERHBB
9/21/2013CINCINNATI2+100 Under51042BAILEY(R)L5.7234
 PITTSBURGH4-1107 unWin51150BURNETT(R)W7243
9/20/2013CINCINNATI6+110  92270LATOS(R) 6482
 PITTSBURGH5-1206.5 unOver102051LIRIANO(L) 8233
Pitcher Versus Team Past History
BRONSON ARROYO vs. PITTSBURGH since 1997
ARROYO is 6-7 when starting against PITTSBURGH with an ERA of 3.70 and a WHIP of 1.304.
His team's record is 7-9 (-5.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 12-2. (+9.7 units)
BRONSON ARROYO recent starts vs. PITTSBURGH
DateOpponentScoreLine TotalResultDecIPRERHHRBBSOOpp Starter
6/19/2013PITTSBURGH2-1-1308Win,Under 7117033LOCKE(L)
5/28/2012at PITTSBURGH1-4-1107.5Loss,UnderL4448011MCDONALD(R)
5/18/2011PITTSBURGH0-5-1508Loss,UnderL7557224MORTON(R)

JEFF LOCKE vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
LOCKE is 2-0 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 1.19 and a WHIP of 1.235.
His team's record is 3-1 (+2.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-4. (-4.5 units)
JEFF LOCKE recent starts vs. CINCINNATI
DateOpponentScoreLine TotalResultDecIPRERHHRBBSOOpp Starter
7/21/2013at CINCINNATI3-2+1258Win,UnderW6111046BAILEY(R)
6/19/2013at CINCINNATI1-2+1208Loss,Under 7004033ARROYO(R)
4/13/2013CINCINNATI3-1+1307Win,UnderW5114140CUETO(R)
Team Line Action - Where the money is going!
Oddsmakers move a line in part because of one-sided public betting action on a side or total. They also move the line in reaction to wise guys selections. Either way, this section attempts to uncover whether the wise guys and public have a read on a given team. It summarizes both line and total movements. As a general rule, follow the line or total movement when percentages exceed 57% and go against it when they are below 43%.
As indicated by the movement of the line, the betting public is favoring PITTSBURGH in this game.
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in CINCINNATI games 0% of the time since 1997. (0-1128, -99.1 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in CINCINNATI games 50% of the time over the last 3 seasons. (203-203, -21.0 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in PITTSBURGH games 52% of the time since 1997. (1171-1080, -8.9 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in PITTSBURGH games 50.6% of the time over the last 3 seasons. (206-201, -22.4 units)
Edge=CINCINNATI
 
The betting public is favoring the UNDER in this game.
The betting public is correct when moving the total in CINCINNATI games 52.2% of the time since 1997. (889-813, -35.9 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in CINCINNATI games 52.4% of the time over the last 3 seasons. (162-147, -3.4 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in PITTSBURGH games 50.5% of the time since 1997. (849-833, -103.8 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in PITTSBURGH games 50.9% of the time over the last 3 seasons. (141-136, -12.1 units)
No Edge.
Key Player Injuries
CINCINNATI
[CF] 09/22/2013 - Shin-Soo Choo is not expected to be in the starting lineup Sunday vs. Pittsburgh Pirates ( Rest )
[P] 09/17/2013 - Tony Cingrani "?" for next scheduled start ( Back )
[P] 08/22/2013 - Jonathan Broxton 60-day DL (8/21) ( Elbow )
[C] 08/10/2013 - Corky Miller 15-day DL (8/10) ( Quad )
[P] 04/02/2013 - Nick Masset 60-day DL (3/22) ( Shoulder )
PITTSBURGH
[C] 07/29/2013 - Michael McKenry 15-day DL (7/29), out for season ( Knee )
[P] 07/12/2013 - James McDonald 60-day DL (5/1) ( Shoulder )
[P] 06/11/2013 - Wandy Rodriguez 60-day DL (6/6) ( Forearm )
[P] 06/08/2013 - Jared Hughes 15-day DL (6/6) ( Shoulder )
[P] 05/29/2013 - Jose Contreras 15-day DL (5/28) ( Back )
[P] 04/02/2013 - Jeff Karstens 60-day DL (3/22) ( Shoulder )
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