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Matchup Reports

Sunday at 9:35 PM
CINCINNATI (98-65) AT SAN FRANCISCO (94-69) 
 Starting Pitchers
TeamsLineW-LOv/Un/PRF/RAStartersRECERAWHIP
911: CINCINNATI
912: SAN FRANCISCO
7.0
-147
98-65
94-69
61-89-13
87-70-6
4.1 / 3.6
4.4 / 4.0
(R) B ARROYO
(L) M BUMGARNER
12-10
16-11
3.74
3.37
1.21
1.11
Current Weather Conditions 
Conditions: Mostly Cloudy   Temperature: 71.0 °
Humidity: 61   Wind: Calm
 
Power Rating Line
The power rating system is based on recent game results. The section should be used to compare the relative strength of the two teams involved. A power line is calculated using both teams ratings and home field advantage. Where the power line differs significantly from the current line, the team with the edge is indicated.
 Power Line
TeamPitcherEstimateEdge
CINCINNATIARROYO +133 
SAN FRANCISCOBUMGARNER-133 
Team Trends and Angles
All team trends listed below apply to the current game.
CINCINNATI team trends
 Win/Loss recordOver/Under
 Current YearLast 3 YearsSince 1997  CurrentLast 3   Since 1997
DescriptionW-LUnitsW-LUnitsW-LUnitsO-UO-UO-U
in all games98-65+18.6270-222+171270-1331-22.261-89221-2331214-1241
when the total is 7 or less16-13+227-31-3.735-58-17.111-1522-2535-43
as a road underdog of +125 to +1504-6-0.315-19+2157-184+29.95-418-11175-148
in road games48-34+11.8127-119+9.5614-685+59.628-49105-125576-652
on the road when the total is 7 or less15-12+2.225-29-3.533-53-13.910-1420-2432-40
in October games2-2-0.14-6-2.69-22-151-33-79-22
when playing on Sunday18-8+7.544-35+1.8191-221-31.711-1231-37191-190
in games played on a grass field98-65+18.6268-221+15.21039-1117-12.561-89221-231994-1036
in night games60-47+2.4174-147+6.9825-864-20.839-60148-153790-812
against left-handed starters32-18+11.485-63+13354-367-11.220-2865-74331-355
in playoff games1-0+1.21-3-1.81-3-1.81-02-22-2
after a win54-43-0.4139-131-16.8614-656-34.332-54110-135570-622
when playing against a team with a winning record38-29+7.894-107-11.5541-668-8.323-3990-93550-592
when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season14-8+539-51-12241-334-26.26-1340-41261-275

SAN FRANCISCO team trends
 Win/Loss recordOver/Under
 Current YearLast 3 YearsSince 1997  CurrentLast 3   Since 1997
DescriptionW-LUnitsW-LUnitsW-LUnitsO-UO-UO-U
in all games94-69+18284-221+341416-1219+106.187-70238-2461264-1244
when the total is 7 or less52-40+3.5149-111+14.4225-165+42.449-39117-127179-186
as a home favorite of -125 to -15013-6+4.846-34-0.5252-169+22.26-1130-46188-212
in home games48-34+4.2149-103+12.2768-549+71.337-41104-135603-648
at home when the total is 7 or less35-27-1.2101-68+9.7144-91+25.229-2970-88103-115
in October games1-3-1.612-9+4.436-31+5.11-38-1233-33
when playing on Sunday12-13-2.343-36+4218-203+2.112-1135-38201-194
in games played on a grass field94-69+18283-219+35.21353-1161+100.587-70237-2441194-1196
in night games60-38+18.8193-136+39.6909-741+126.254-42156-160779-787
against right-handed starters54-50-4.1190-164+11036-894+62.955-45169-169942-896
in playoff games0-1-1.211-5+8.223-21+31-07-822-21
after a loss43-26+16126-92+24.5647-574+46.634-31104-107593-565
when playing against a team with a winning record31-320119-112+7.7619-619+27.533-28108-116601-581
when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season16-17-0.766-58+9.9322-315+26.418-1457-64310-302
Current Season Results And Upcoming Games
Here are the most recent results and upcoming schedules for the two teams involved. Lines, total, game scores, results versus the spread, straight up and against the total are all displayed.
CINCINNATI - Schedule
 Team StatsOpp Stats
DateTeam StarterOpponentOpp StarterScoreW/LLineTot.O/UHLOBEHLOBE
9/23/2012BAILEY(R)LA DODGERSKERSHAW(L)3-5L+1357.5 unO6101851
9/25/2012CUETO(R)MILWAUKEEFIERS(R)4-2W-1457.5 ovU960510
9/26/2012ARROYO(R)MILWAUKEEMARCUM(R)1-8L-1308.5 evO6901390
9/27/2012LATOS(R)MILWAUKEEPERALTA(R)2-1W-1658 evU650550
9/28/2012BAILEY(R)@ PITTSBURGHBURNETT(R)1-0W-1157 unU741010
9/29/2012LEAKE(R)@ PITTSBURGHMCPHERSON(R)1-2L-1258.5 evU7928120
9/30/2012CUETO(R)@ PITTSBURGHRODRIGUEZ(L)4-3W-1507.5 unU1073770
10/1/2012ARROYO(R)@ ST LOUISGARCIA(L)2-4L1307.5 unU650961
10/2/2012LATOS(R)@ ST LOUISCARPENTER(R)3-1W1157 ovU870660
10/3/2012BAILEY(R)@ ST LOUISMILLER(R)0-1L-1407.5 unU350991
10/6/2012CUETO(R)@ SAN FRANCISCOCAIN(R)5-2W1156.5 unO9617110
10/7/2012ARROYO(R)@ SAN FRANCISCOBUMGARNER(L) 
10/9/2012LATOS(R)SAN FRANCISCOLINCECUM(R) 

SAN FRANCISCO - Schedule
 Team StatsOpp Stats
DateTeam StarterOpponentOpp StarterScoreW/LLineTot.O/UHLOBEHLOBE
9/23/2012PETIT(R)SAN DIEGOSTULTS(L)4-6L+1457.5 unO9721181
9/25/2012LINCECUM(R)ARIZONACOLLMENTER(R)2-7L-1407 ovO440640
9/26/2012CAIN(R)ARIZONAMILEY(L)6-0W-1556.5 ovU12123792
9/27/2012ZITO(L)ARIZONACORBIN(L)7-3W-1057.5 evO1240770
9/28/2012VOGELSONG(R)@ SAN DIEGOWERNER(L)3-1W-1157 evU10102771
9/29/2012BUMGARNER(L)@ SAN DIEGOSTULTS(L)3-7L-1257 unO761950
9/30/2012LINCECUM(R)@ SAN DIEGOVOLQUEZ(R)7-5W1107.5 evO1281640
10/1/2012CAIN(R)@ LA DODGERSHARANG(R)2-3L-1107 unU650980
10/2/2012ZITO(L)@ LA DODGERSCAPUANO(L)4-3W1707.5 ovU10401071
10/3/2012VOGELSONG(R)@ LA DODGERSKERSHAW(L)1-5L1806.5 unU351840
10/6/2012CAIN(R)CINCINNATICUETO(R)2-5L-1256.5 unO7110961
10/7/2012BUMGARNER(L)CINCINNATIARROYO(R) 
10/9/2012LINCECUM(R)@ CINCINNATILATOS(R) 
Team Statistics
Peformance statistics for each team in various situations are listed below. Categories where a team has performed poorly are denoted in red. Categories where a team has performed well are denoted in green.
CINCINNATI - Current Season Performance
 Team RecordsTeamOpponent
 W-LUnitsO-URunsAvgOBPRunsAvgOBP
All Games98-65+18.661-894.10.2510.3123.60.2470.301
Road Games48-34+11.828-493.90.2470.3023.40.2430.302
vs Left-handed Starters32-18+11.420-284.50.2550.3133.70.2500.307
Past 7 Games4-3+0.61-62.30.2190.2611.90.2090.281
Grass Games98-65+18.661-894.10.2510.3123.60.2470.301
Night Games60-47+2.439-604.00.2490.3093.60.2460.305
Playoff games1-0+1.21-05.00.2570.2972.00.2060.325
CINCINNATI - Team Hitting and Fielding Statistics
Team BattingTeam BattingTeam Fielding
 RunsAVGOBPGABHEBHR/ABRBIBBSOSBLOBGIDPERRDPOSB
All Games4.10.2510.312163551213865011740.0364048312758711411269011378
Road Games3.90.2470.302822864707248710.023082266374558869534832
Lefty Starters4.50.2550.313501732441161630.042181484032035641303725
CINCINNATI - Bullpen Pitching Statistics
 ERAWHIPIPRERHHRBBSOW-LSVBSVPct.
All Games2.641.2264431461303563418748232-22561776.7%
Road Games3.081.424198.77668186149721512-14321076.2%

SAN FRANCISCO - Current Season Performance
 Team RecordsTeamOpponent
 W-LUnitsO-URunsAvgOBPRunsAvgOBP
All Games94-69+1887-704.40.2690.3274.00.2480.309
Home Games48-34+4.237-413.80.2660.3293.40.2340.296
vs Right-handed Starters54-50-4.155-454.30.2660.3324.10.2450.306
Past 7 Games3-4-0.83-43.10.2380.3184.10.2530.299
Grass Games94-69+1887-704.40.2690.3274.00.2480.309
Night Games60-38+18.854-424.60.2790.3383.90.2470.306
Playoff games0-1-1.21-02.00.2060.3255.00.2570.297
SAN FRANCISCO - Team Hitting and Fielding Statistics
Team BattingTeam BattingTeam Fielding
 RunsAVGOBPGABHEBHR/ABRBIBBSOSBLOBGIDPERRDPOSB
All Games4.40.2690.327163559215024491040.0267648911021181182133115135129
Home Games3.80.2660.329822699718203320.012872525165460568486872
Righty Starters4.30.2660.3321043542943272540.024173487238678172717683
SAN FRANCISCO - Bullpen Pitching Statistics
 ERAWHIPIPRERHHRBBSOW-LSVBSVPct.
All Games3.551.340456.72081804503816238823-19531380.3%
Home Games3.091.2172218576196177318511-824680%
Starting Pitcher Season to Date Performance
BRONSON ARROYO recent results and season statistics
BRONSON ARROYO - Season Statistics in Games Started
 Starter StatisticsTeam Records
 ERAWHIPW-LGIPIP/SRERHHRBBSOW-LUnitsO-U
All Starts3.741.20812-10322026.38684209263512918-14+2.48-21
Road Starts3.571.0868-7181166.446461081618779-9-0.23-13
Last 3 Starts3.791.1580-23196.3882022110-3-3.61-2
BRONSON ARROYO - Recent Starts
DateOpponentScoreLine TotalResultDecIPRERHHRBBSOOpp Starter
10/1/2012at ST LOUIS2-4+1307.5Loss,UnderL5336116GARCIA(L)
9/26/2012MILWAUKEE1-8-1308.5Loss,OverL6448111MARCUM(R)
9/21/2012LA DODGERS1-3-1358Loss,Under 8116004BLANTON(R)

MADISON BUMGARNER recent results and season statistics
MADISON BUMGARNER - Season Statistics in Games Started
 Starter StatisticsTeam Records
 ERAWHIPW-LGIPIP/SRERHHRBBSOW-LUnitsO-U
All Starts3.371.11416-1132208.36.58778183234919119-13+3.215-14
Home Starts2.381.01910-3151067.13028845249811-4+56-7
Last 3 Starts4.021.3402-1315.75.2971338162-1+0.82-1
MADISON BUMGARNER - Recent Starts
DateOpponentScoreLine TotalResultDecIPRERHHRBBSOOpp Starter
9/29/2012at SAN DIEGO3-7-1257Loss,OverL4544224STULTS(L)
9/22/2012SAN DIEGO8-4-1757Win,OverW5.7325116WERNER(L)
9/17/2012COLORADO2-1-2257Win,UnderW6114056CHACIN(R)
Head-to-Head Series History
Listed below is a summary of the games results in recent Head-to-Head matchups.
Games over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 13-9 (+4.5 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
12 of 21 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+2.6 Units)
Games this season
CINCINNATI is 5-3 (+2.5 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO this season
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.6 Units)

All games at SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 6-6 (+1.0 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.4 Units)
Games played at SAN FRANCISCO this season.
CINCINNATI is 3-2 (+1.7 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO this season
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.8 Units)

 Team StatsStarting Pitcher Stats
DateTeamsScoreLineTotalResultHHRSBLOBERRStarterW/LIPERHBB
10/6/2012CINCINNATI5+115  92061CUETO(R) 0.3000
 SAN FRANCISCO2-1256.5 unOver710110CAIN(R)L5351
Pitcher Versus Team Past History
BRONSON ARROYO vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
ARROYO is 3-5 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 2.93 and a WHIP of 1.415.
His team's record is 4-7 (-3.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 9-1. (+7.8 units)
BRONSON ARROYO recent starts vs. SAN FRANCISCO
DateOpponentScoreLine TotalResultDecIPRERHHRBBSOOpp Starter
7/1/2012at SAN FRANCISCO3-4+1407Loss 6227022VOGELSONG(R)
4/25/2012SAN FRANCISCO4-2-1258.5Win,Under 5219112ZITO(L)
8/19/2009SAN FRANCISCO0-1-1208.5Loss,UnderL8119015ZITO(L)

MADISON BUMGARNER vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
BUMGARNER is 1-2 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 5.16 and a WHIP of 1.279.
His team's record is 1-3 (-2.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-2. (-0.1 units)
MADISON BUMGARNER recent starts vs. CINCINNATI
DateOpponentScoreLine TotalResultDecIPRERHHRBBSOOpp Starter
6/28/2012CINCINNATI5-0-1156Win,UnderW9001028CUETO(R)
7/30/2011at CINCINNATI2-7+1058Loss,OverL4757034LEAKE(R)
6/9/2011CINCINNATI0-3-1057Loss,UnderL7118007CUETO(R)
Team Line Action - Where the money is going!
Oddsmakers move a line in part because of one-sided public betting action on a side or total. They also move the line in reaction to wise guys selections. Either way, this section attempts to uncover whether the wise guys and public have a read on a given team. It summarizes both line and total movements. As a general rule, follow the line or total movement when percentages exceed 57% and go against it when they are below 43%.
As indicated by the movement of the line, the betting public is favoring CINCINNATI in this game.
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in CINCINNATI games 0% of the time since 1997. (0-1068, -100.6 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in CINCINNATI games 48.1% of the time over the last 3 seasons. (199-215, -31.5 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in SAN FRANCISCO games 51.6% of the time since 1997. (1106-1038, -27.7 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in SAN FRANCISCO games 50.8% of the time over the last 3 seasons. (217-210, -16.2 units)
Edge=SAN FRANCISCO
 
The betting public is favoring nothing on the total in this game.
The betting public is correct when moving the total in CINCINNATI games 52.4% of the time since 1997. (819-743, -25.5 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in CINCINNATI games 51.8% of the time over the last 3 seasons. (133-124, -4.2 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in SAN FRANCISCO games 51.4% of the time since 1997. (784-740, -64.6 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in SAN FRANCISCO games 47.9% of the time over the last 3 seasons. (101-110, -20.5 units)
No Edge.
Key Player Injuries
CINCINNATI
[P] 04/27/2012 - Ryan Madson 60-day DL (3/24), out for season ( Elbow )
[P] 06/15/2012 - Nick Masset 60-day DL (3/26) ( Shoulder )
[P] 08/01/2012 - Bill Bray 15-day DL (7/31) ( Back )
[RHP] 10/06/2012 - Johnny Cueto injured last game, "?" next start ( Back )
SAN FRANCISCO
[1B] 04/08/2012 - Angel Villalona on restricted list ( Disciplinary )
[2B] 03/31/2012 - Freddy Sanchez 60-day DL (3/26), out for season ( Shoulder )
[P] 04/15/2012 - Brian Wilson 60-day DL (4/13), out for season ( Elbow )
[P] 06/29/2012 - Eric Surkamp 60-day DL (3/26) ( Elbow )
[LF] 08/15/2012 - Melky Cabrera suspended 50 games; out for season ( Suspension )
© Sports Handicapping Information All Rights Reserved.

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