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Matchup Reports

Monday at 10:15 PM
CINCINNATI (55-43) AT SAN FRANCISCO (45-52) 
 Starting Pitchers
TeamsLineW-LOv/Un/PRF/RAStartersRECERAWHIP
911: CINCINNATI
912: SAN FRANCISCO
7.0
-120
55-43
45-52
47-48-3
50-44-3
4.3 / 3.7
4.0 / 4.4
(R) B ARROYO
(R) T LINCECUM
8-7
5-9
3.42
4.26
1.13
1.33
Current Weather Conditions 
Conditions: Mostly Cloudy   Temperature: 71.0 °
Humidity: 61   Wind: Calm
 
Power Rating Line
The power rating system is based on recent game results. The section should be used to compare the relative strength of the two teams involved. A power line is calculated using both teams ratings and home field advantage. Where the power line differs significantly from the current line, the team with the edge is indicated.
 Power Line
TeamPitcherEstimateEdge
CINCINNATIARROYO-152
SAN FRANCISCOLINCECUM +152 
Team Trends and Angles
All team trends listed below apply to the current game.
CINCINNATI team trends
 Win/Loss recordOver/Under
 Current YearLast 3 YearsSince 1997  CurrentLast 3   Since 1997
DescriptionW-LUnitsW-LUnitsW-LUnitsO-UO-UO-U
in all games55-43+0.1234-194+1.81326-1377-24.947-48194-2071264-1290
when the total is 7 or less12-6+5.636-29+6.148-65-11.59-728-2946-50
as a road underdog of +100 to +1256-10-3.328-30+1192-189+28.77-924-33167-196
in road games23-26-5.4109-104+1.4638-711+55.523-2491-112600-676
on the road when the total is 7 or less9-6+2.531-27+3.543-59-10.18-525-2641-45
in July games9-7-0.639-29+3.1213-226-14.76-929-34208-206
when playing on Monday10-3+6.927-24-0.9144-141+105-821-29146-131
in games played on a grass field55-43+0.1232-193+01095-1163-15.247-48194-2051044-1085
in night games32-24+2.1145-123-1.8858-888-17.426-30116-137817-842
against right-handed starters37-28-0.6164-138-3.6953-994-14.334-30137-146918-917
after a loss26-16+7.7114-76+27.4678-689+18.417-2490-93660-638
when playing against a team with a losing record32-16+8.3132-91+8.7692-610-3.923-2599-110609-616
when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season5-4-1.469-45+8.6388-312+28.62-744-58319-330

SAN FRANCISCO team trends
 Win/Loss recordOver/Under
 Current YearLast 3 YearsSince 1997  CurrentLast 3   Since 1997
DescriptionW-LUnitsW-LUnitsW-LUnitsO-UO-UO-U
in all games45-52-14.9237-202+6.21472-1275+10050-44217-2051323-1293
when the total is 7 or less18-19-5.5134-111-1.9251-188+41.718-17118-114205-206
at home with a money line of -100 to -1259-5+3.233-21+9169-142+4.37-622-29143-151
in home games27-21-1.8127-92+4.3800-572+72.523-2295-113631-671
at home when the total is 7 or less14-13-3.894-69+1.3163-106+24.315-1073-80123-126
in July games6-10-6.233-33-4.6225-212+3.78-736-28211-208
when playing on Monday4-7-3.626-22-0.4173-110+59.66-430-17134-133
in games played on a grass field45-50-12.8237-200+8.31409-1215+96.648-44215-2051251-1245
in night games26-32-9.6156-122+17.6943-776+122.635-21142-125821-811
against right-handed starters31-35-10.8157-148-17.81078-933+60.938-28159-135989-929
after a loss20-30-14.2104-95-3670-606+33.724-2595-97620-592
when playing against a team with a winning record25-22+1.399-90+8.2655-645+37.726-1998-84636-605
when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season2-4-2.642-42+0.2335-323+32.61-442-39320-311
Current Season Results And Upcoming Games
Here are the most recent results and upcoming schedules for the two teams involved. Lines, total, game scores, results versus the spread, straight up and against the total are all displayed.
CINCINNATI - Schedule
 Team StatsOpp Stats
DateTeam StarterOpponentOpp StarterScoreW/LLineTot.O/UHLOBEHLOBE
7/8/2013BAILEY(R)@ MILWAUKEELOHSE(R)3-4L-1258 ovU11911190
7/9/2013CINGRANI(L)@ MILWAUKEEPERALTA(R)0-2L-1359 evU340440
7/10/2013LEAKE(R)@ MILWAUKEEHELLWEG(R)6-2W-1659 unU980441
7/11/2013LATOS(R)@ ATLANTAHUDSON(R)5-6L1007.5 unO10611183
7/12/2013ARROYO(R)@ ATLANTAMEDLEN(R)4-2W1207.5 unU1090430
7/13/2013BAILEY(R)@ ATLANTAMINOR(L)2-5L-1157 unP7601170
7/14/2013CINGRANI(L)@ ATLANTATEHERAN(R)8-4W-1057.5 unO1181980
7/19/2013LEAKE(R)PITTSBURGHLIRIANO(L)5-3W+1007.5 evO8601081
7/20/2013LATOS(R)PITTSBURGHBURNETT(R)5-4W-1358 unO10938121
7/21/2013BAILEY(R)PITTSBURGHLOCKE(L)2-3L-1358 unU360770
7/22/2013ARROYO(R)@ SAN FRANCISCOLINCECUM(R) 
7/23/2013CINGRANI(L)@ SAN FRANCISCOKICKHAM(L) 
7/23/2013CINGRANI(L)SAN FRANCISCOZITO(L) 
7/24/2013LEAKE(R)@ SAN FRANCISCOGAUDIN(R) 
7/25/2013LATOS(R)@ LA DODGERSGREINKE(R) 
7/26/2013BAILEY(R)@ LA DODGERSKERSHAW(L) 
7/27/2013ARROYO(R)@ LA DODGERSRYU(L) 
7/28/2013 @ LA DODGERSCAPUANO(L) 
7/29/2013 @ SAN DIEGO  

SAN FRANCISCO - Schedule
 Team StatsOpp Stats
DateTeam StarterOpponentOpp StarterScoreW/LLineTot.O/UHLOBEHLOBE
7/8/2013LINCECUM(R)NY METSHARVEY(R)3-4L+1006.5 unO14182970
7/9/2013ZITO(L)NY METSGEE(R)6-10L-1307.5 unO131101282
7/10/2013CAIN(R)NY METSWHEELER(R)2-7L-1957.5 unO672880
7/11/2013BUMGARNER(L)@ SAN DIEGOMARQUIS(R)4-2W-1457 ovU12120540
7/12/2013GAUDIN(R)@ SAN DIEGOO'SULLIVAN(R)10-1W-1158 unO17130581
7/13/2013LINCECUM(R)@ SAN DIEGOVOLQUEZ(R)9-0W-1157.5 unO1020050
7/14/2013ZITO(L)@ SAN DIEGOSTULTS(L)1-10L1308.5 unO7711270
7/19/2013GAUDIN(R)ARIZONAKENNEDY(R)2-0W-1207.5 unU890560
7/20/2013CAIN(R)ARIZONAMILEY(L)4-3W-1357 unP8729130
7/21/2013BUMGARNER(L)ARIZONADELGADO(R)1-3L-1607 unU580872
7/22/2013LINCECUM(R)CINCINNATIARROYO(R) 
7/23/2013KICKHAM(L)CINCINNATICINGRANI(L) 
7/23/2013ZITO(L)@ CINCINNATICINGRANI(L) 
7/24/2013GAUDIN(R)CINCINNATILEAKE(R) 
7/26/2013CAIN(R)CHICAGO CUBSJACKSON(R) 
7/27/2013BUMGARNER(L)CHICAGO CUBSGARZA(R) 
7/28/2013LINCECUM(R)CHICAGO CUBSWOOD(L) 
Team Statistics
Peformance statistics for each team in various situations are listed below. Categories where a team has performed poorly are denoted in red. Categories where a team has performed well are denoted in green.
CINCINNATI - Current Season Performance
 Team RecordsTeamOpponent
 W-LUnitsO-URunsAvgOBPRunsAvgOBP
All Games55-43+0.147-484.30.2500.3223.70.2350.293
Road Games23-26-5.423-244.00.2440.3183.80.2420.299
vs Right-handed Starters37-28-0.634-304.60.2520.3233.80.2410.298
Past 7 Games4-3+0.74-24.40.2610.3453.90.2530.309
Grass Games55-43+0.147-484.30.2500.3223.70.2350.293
Night Games32-24+2.126-304.10.2510.3163.40.2320.290
CINCINNATI - Team Hitting and Fielding Statistics
Team BattingTeam BattingTeam Fielding
 RunsAVGOBPGABHEBHR/ABRBIBBSOSBLOBGIDPERRDPOSB
All Games4.30.2500.322983327831278930.034063537652873294467041
Road Games4.00.2440.318491673408129420.031901823701337156263225
Righty Starters4.60.2520.323652201554183610.032882325122247563324332
CINCINNATI - Bullpen Pitching Statistics
 ERAWHIPIPRERHHRBBSOW-LSVBSVPct.
All Games3.381.214279.31121052242911529617-16271073%
Road Games3.511.278128.3525010812561056-813668.4%

SAN FRANCISCO - Current Season Performance
 Team RecordsTeamOpponent
 W-LUnitsO-URunsAvgOBPRunsAvgOBP
All Games45-52-14.950-444.00.2630.3184.40.2480.313
Home Games27-21-1.823-223.90.2680.3283.80.2320.302
vs Right-handed Starters31-35-10.838-283.90.2580.3164.50.2490.315
Past 7 Games5-2+2.43-34.40.2770.3422.70.1960.280
Grass Games45-50-12.748-444.00.2620.3174.20.2440.310
Night Games26-32-9.635-214.30.2690.3194.70.2560.321
SAN FRANCISCO - Team Hitting and Fielding Statistics
Team BattingTeam BattingTeam Fielding
 RunsAVGOBPGABHEBHR/ABRBIBBSOSBLOBGIDPERRDPOSB
All Games4.00.2630.318973334876264630.023622686404370088687566
Home Games3.90.2680.328481635438134300.021771452832236241314030
Righty Starters3.90.2580.316662256582172440.022431914413748553395151
SAN FRANCISCO - Bullpen Pitching Statistics
 ERAWHIPIPRERHHRBBSOW-LSVBSVPct.
All Games3.221.301304.31161092792311727714-1724972.7%
Home Games3.061.280161.7595514696114510-912475%
Starting Pitcher Season to Date Performance
BRONSON ARROYO recent results and season statistics
BRONSON ARROYO - Season Statistics in Games Started
 Starter StatisticsTeam Records
 ERAWHIPW-LGIPIP/SRERHHRBBSOW-LUnitsO-U
All Starts3.421.1328-719123.76.5494711717236911-8+2.58-11
Road Starts4.981.2002-5743.36.225244389172-5-2.83-4
Last 3 Starts2.370.6842-13196.3551043122-1+0.41-2
BRONSON ARROYO - Recent Starts
DateOpponentScoreLine TotalResultDecIPRERHHRBBSOOpp Starter
7/12/2013at ATLANTA4-2+1207.5Win,UnderW7113113MEDLEN(R)
7/7/2013SEATTLE1-3-1808.5Loss,UnderL6335216SAUNDERS(L)
7/1/2013SAN FRANCISCO8-1-1558.5Win,OverW6112113KICKHAM(L)

TIM LINCECUM recent results and season statistics
TIM LINCECUM - Season Statistics in Games Started
 Starter StatisticsTeam Records
 ERAWHIPW-LGIPIP/SRERHHRBBSOW-LUnitsO-U
All Starts4.261.3325-919116.36.1615510710481258-11-4.311-8
Home Starts4.121.1363-39596.6282746521664-5-2.35-4
Last 3 Starts2.530.8911-1321.37.1661217321-2-12-1
TIM LINCECUM - Recent Starts
DateOpponentScoreLine TotalResultDecIPRERHHRBBSOOpp Starter
7/13/2013at SAN DIEGO9-0-1157.5Win,OverW90000413VOLQUEZ(R)
7/8/2013NY METS3-4+1006.5Loss,Over 73360111HARVEY(R)
7/2/2013at CINCINNATI0-3+1658.5Loss,UnderL5.3336128BAILEY(R)
Head-to-Head Series History
Listed below is a summary of the games results in recent Head-to-Head matchups.
Games over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 14-8 (+6.1 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
10 of 21 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-1.5 Units, Under=-0.2 Units)
Games this season
CINCINNATI is 3-0 (+3.0 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.9 Units)

All games at SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 6-4 (+3.3 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.7 Units)
Games played at SAN FRANCISCO this season.
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

 Team StatsStarting Pitcher Stats
DateTeamsScoreLineTotalResultHHRSBLOBERRStarterW/LIPERHBB
7/3/2013SAN FRANCISCO2+165 Under510120ZITO(L) 4171
 CINCINNATI3-1758.5 ovWin1011110CINGRANI(L) 5.7244
7/2/2013SAN FRANCISCO0+165 Under00011LINCECUM(R)L5.3362
 CINCINNATI3-1758.5 unWin71180BAILEY(R)W9001
7/1/2013SAN FRANCISCO1+145 Over21020KICKHAM(L)L2.7790
 CINCINNATI8-1558.5 evWin111040ARROYO(R)W6121
Pitcher Versus Team Past History
BRONSON ARROYO vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
ARROYO is 5-5 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 2.58 and a WHIP of 1.255.
His team's record is 6-7 (-0.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-9. (-6.3 units)
BRONSON ARROYO recent starts vs. SAN FRANCISCO
DateOpponentScoreLine TotalResultDecIPRERHHRBBSOOpp Starter
7/1/2013SAN FRANCISCO8-1-1558.5Win,OverW6112113KICKHAM(L)
10/7/2012at SAN FRANCISCO9-0+1357Win,OverW7001014BUMGARNER(L)
7/1/2012at SAN FRANCISCO3-4+1407Loss 6227022VOGELSONG(R)

TIM LINCECUM vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
LINCECUM is 0-2 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 6.85 and a WHIP of 1.567.
His team's record is 1-3 (-4.6 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-3. (-2.2 units)
TIM LINCECUM recent starts vs. CINCINNATI
DateOpponentScoreLine TotalResultDecIPRERHHRBBSOOpp Starter
7/2/2013at CINCINNATI0-3+1658.5Loss,UnderL5.3336128BAILEY(R)
6/11/2011CINCINNATI2-10-1506.5Loss,OverL4777041LEAKE(R)
8/18/2009at CINCINNATI8-5-2207.5Win,Over 6556132BAILEY(R)
Team Line Action - Where the money is going!
Oddsmakers move a line in part because of one-sided public betting action on a side or total. They also move the line in reaction to wise guys selections. Either way, this section attempts to uncover whether the wise guys and public have a read on a given team. It summarizes both line and total movements. As a general rule, follow the line or total movement when percentages exceed 57% and go against it when they are below 43%.
As indicated by the movement of the line, the betting public is favoring Nobody in this game.
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in CINCINNATI games 0% of the time since 1997. (0-1112, -113.3 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in CINCINNATI games 47.8% of the time over the last 3 seasons. (171-187, -35.2 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in SAN FRANCISCO games 51.7% of the time since 1997. (1153-1078, -24.3 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in SAN FRANCISCO games 49.2% of the time over the last 3 seasons. (182-188, -26.6 units)
No Edge.
 
The betting public is favoring the UNDER in this game.
The betting public is correct when moving the total in CINCINNATI games 52.3% of the time since 1997. (863-788, -33.3 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in CINCINNATI games 52.7% of the time over the last 3 seasons. (136-122, -0.8 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in SAN FRANCISCO games 51.4% of the time since 1997. (835-788, -68.9 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in SAN FRANCISCO games 50.4% of the time over the last 3 seasons. (119-117, -11.6 units)
No Edge.
Key Player Injuries
CINCINNATI
[P] 06/28/2013 - Johnny Cueto 15-day DL (6/29) ( Side )
[P] 06/15/2013 - Jonathan Broxton 15-day DL (6/14) ( Elbow )
[P] 04/02/2013 - Nick Masset 60-day DL (3/22) ( Shoulder )
[C] 07/11/2013 - Ryan Hanigan 15-day DL (7/10) ( Wrist )
[LF] 04/03/2013 - Ryan Ludwick 60-day DL (4/2) ( Shoulder )
[P] 05/24/2013 - Sean Marshall 15-day DL (5/21) ( Shoulder )
SAN FRANCISCO
[CF] 06/07/2013 - Angel Pagan 60-day DL (5/28) ( Hamstring )
[C] 07/11/2013 - Hector Sanchez 15-day DL (7/9) ( Shoulder )
[P] 07/21/2013 - Jeremy Affeldt 15-day DL (7/20) ( Groin )
[3B] 07/08/2013 - Joaquin Arias 15-day DL (7/8) ( Appendix )
[P] 05/21/2013 - Ryan Vogelsong 60-day DL (5/20) ( Hand )
© Sports Handicapping Information All Rights Reserved.

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