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Matchup Reports

Sunday at 1:10 PM
MILWAUKEE (15-19) AT CINCINNATI (21-16) 
 Starting Pitchers
TeamsLineW-LOv/Un/PRF/RAStartersRECERAWHIP
951: MILWAUKEE
952: CINCINNATI
8.5
-156
15-19
21-16
23-11-0
22-14-1
4.5 / 5.1
4.7 / 4.0
(R) W PERALTA
(R) B ARROYO
3-2
2-4
5.54
4.30
1.54
1.17
Current Weather Conditions 
Conditions: Mostly Cloudy   Temperature: 54.0 °
Humidity: 47   Wind: South at 3.5 MPH (3 KT)
 
Power Rating Line
The power rating system is based on recent game results. The section should be used to compare the relative strength of the two teams involved. A power line is calculated using both teams ratings and home field advantage. Where the power line differs significantly from the current line, the team with the edge is indicated.
 Power Line
TeamPitcherEstimateEdge
MILWAUKEEPERALTA +115 
CINCINNATIARROYO-115 
Team Trends and Angles
All team trends listed below apply to the current game.
MILWAUKEE team trends
 Win/Loss recordOver/Under
 Current YearLast 3 YearsSince 1997  CurrentLast 3   Since 1997
DescriptionW-LUnitsW-LUnitsW-LUnitsO-UO-UO-U
in all games15-19-5.7200-170+4.61245-1394-94.823-11196-1591245-1270
when the total is 8 to 8.59-9-1.2103-73+13.8436-441+9.411-786-84420-431
as a road underdog of +125 to +1501-3-1.66-21-13136-205-20.81-314-11164-163
in road games5-8-2.679-101-27.4556-759-77.98-588-82603-653
on the road when the total is 8 to 8.51-1+0.434-37-6.1161-227-28.61-133-34171-207
in May games1-8-7.930-36-9.9215-243-20.66-335-27222-218
when playing on Sunday2-3-0.834-27+3.6188-240-47.72-329-29199-207
against division opponents7-10-3.4106-77+14.1602-630-2.111-697-78590-580
in day games5-7-2.265-63-8.2430-504-60.19-368-55457-434
in games played on a grass field15-19-5.7200-170+4.61183-1307-87.523-11196-1591188-1183
against right-handed starters11-11-1151-121+12.1916-1030-60.616-6147-113906-942
after allowing 10 runs or more1-0+110-11-1.5101-116-6.11-09-982-118
after a loss5-13-8.487-80-1.9639-746-56.613-589-69637-685
after 3 or more consecutive losses3-4-0.819-19-1194-210+8.86-124-13190-195
when playing against a team with a winning record7-13-6.885-80+4532-673-35.313-776-81555-604

CINCINNATI team trends
 Win/Loss recordOver/Under
 Current YearLast 3 YearsSince 1997  CurrentLast 3   Since 1997
DescriptionW-LUnitsW-LUnitsW-LUnitsO-UO-UO-U
in all games21-16+1.2200-167+2.91292-1350-23.822-14169-1731239-1256
when the total is 8 to 8.58-5+2.282-74-9.6385-419-20.110-379-67386-388
as a home favorite of -150 to -1754-1+2.324-16-1.399-87-39.41-417-2098-79
in home games15-6+6.1108-79+1670-655-80.913-892-79653-598
at home when the total is 8 to 8.58-2+5.451-43-7.2202-211-34.18-251-35221-178
in May games6-3+2.737-29+4.7232-232-2.87-236-26220-221
when playing on Sunday4-1+2.436-22+10196-222-27.94-030-22196-190
against division opponents9-8-0.6100-75+8.3618-616+8.99-877-85580-575
in day games11-7+2.677-59+8.2451-474-6.513-470-56436-429
in games played on a grass field21-16+1.2198-166+1.11061-1136-14.122-14169-1711019-1051
against right-handed starters14-10+1.1141-120-1.9930-976-12.714-10117-126898-897
after a win12-8+1.5101-99-18.6627-665-32.914-687-95585-629
when playing against a team with a losing record12-7+1.8112-82+2.2672-601-10.411-887-93597-599
Current Season Results And Upcoming Games
Here are the most recent results and upcoming schedules for the two teams involved. Lines, total, game scores, results versus the spread, straight up and against the total are all displayed.
MILWAUKEE - Schedule
 Team StatsOpp Stats
DateTeam StarterOpponentOpp StarterScoreW/LLineTot.O/UHLOBEHLOBE
4/28/2013LOHSE(R)@ LA DODGERSKERSHAW(L)0-2L1656.5 unU430640
4/29/2013GALLARDO(R)PITTSBURGHRODRIGUEZ(L)10-4W-1308 unO1362541
4/30/2013ESTRADA(R)PITTSBURGHMCDONALD(R)12-8W-1458 ovO15901461
5/1/2013BURGOS(R)PITTSBURGHGOMEZ(R)4-6L-1409 unO771941
5/2/2013PERALTA(R)ST LOUISWESTBROOK(R)5-6L-1108.5 evO121301271
5/3/2013LOHSE(R)ST LOUISMILLER(R)1-6L-1108 ovU8611590
5/4/2013GALLARDO(R)ST LOUISWAINWRIGHT(R)6-7L+1157.5 unO14811040
5/5/2013ESTRADA(R)ST LOUISGARCIA(L)1-10L-1208.5 unO87011100
5/7/2013PERALTA(R)TEXASGRIMM(R)6-3W+1058.5 unO951750
5/8/2013LOHSE(R)TEXASHOLLAND(L)1-4L-1158 unU128112100
5/10/2013GALLARDO(R)@ CINCINNATICINGRANI(L)3-4L1407.5 evU8808130
5/11/2013BURGOS(R)@ CINCINNATILATOS(R)7-13L1808 unO11811481
5/12/2013PERALTA(R)@ CINCINNATIARROYO(R) 
5/13/2013ESTRADA(R)@ PITTSBURGHBURNETT(R) 
5/14/2013LOHSE(R)@ PITTSBURGHLOCKE(L) 
5/15/2013GALLARDO(R)@ PITTSBURGHRODRIGUEZ(L) 
5/16/2013BURGOS(R)@ PITTSBURGHLIRIANO(L) 
5/17/2013PERALTA(R)@ ST LOUISGARCIA(L) 
5/18/2013ESTRADA(R)@ ST LOUISLYNN(R) 
5/19/2013 @ ST LOUIS  

CINCINNATI - Schedule
 Team StatsOpp Stats
DateTeam StarterOpponentOpp StarterScoreW/LLineTot.O/UHLOBEHLOBE
4/28/2013CINGRANI(L)@ WASHINGTONDETWILER(L)5-2W-1057 ovP11101582
4/29/2013LATOS(R)@ ST LOUISWAINWRIGHT(R)2-1W1207 unU6507100
4/30/2013ARROYO(R)@ ST LOUISGARCIA(L)1-2L1307.5 ovU740740
5/1/2013BAILEY(R)@ ST LOUISLYNN(R)2-4L1057 ovU6501071
5/3/2013LEAKE(R)@ CHICAGO CUBSVILLANUEVA(R)6-5W1007 unO910015121
5/4/2013CINGRANI(L)@ CHICAGO CUBSSAMARDZIJA(R)6-4W-1157 unO680321
5/5/2013LATOS(R)@ CHICAGO CUBSJACKSON(R)7-4W-1357 ovO1171891
5/6/2013ARROYO(R)ATLANTAMAHOLM(L)4-7L+1007.5 unO9811181
5/7/2013BAILEY(R)ATLANTAMEDLEN(R)5-4W-1107.5 unO960550
5/8/2013LEAKE(R)ATLANTAMINOR(L)2-7L-1308 unO7701160
5/10/2013CINGRANI(L)MILWAUKEEGALLARDO(R)4-3W-1507.5 evU8130880
5/11/2013LATOS(R)MILWAUKEEBURGOS(R)13-7W-1908 unO14811181
5/12/2013ARROYO(R)MILWAUKEEPERALTA(R) 
5/14/2013BAILEY(R)@ MIAMINOLASCO(R) 
5/15/2013LEAKE(R)@ MIAMISANABIA(R) 
5/16/2013CINGRANI(L)@ MIAMIFERNANDEZ(R) 
5/17/2013LATOS(R)@ PHILADELPHIACLOYD(R) 
5/18/2013ARROYO(R)@ PHILADELPHIALEE(L) 
5/19/2013 @ PHILADELPHIA  
Team Statistics
Peformance statistics for each team in various situations are listed below. Categories where a team has performed poorly are denoted in red. Categories where a team has performed well are denoted in green.
MILWAUKEE - Current Season Performance
 Team RecordsTeamOpponent
 W-LUnitsO-URunsAvgOBPRunsAvgOBP
All Games15-19-5.823-114.50.2640.3205.10.2750.327
Road Games5-8-2.68-53.80.2350.2974.50.2510.312
vs Right-handed Starters11-11-116-64.90.2570.3164.90.2740.313
Past 7 Games1-6-5.44-33.60.2920.3366.70.3060.379
Grass Games15-19-5.823-114.50.2640.3205.10.2750.327
Day Games5-7-2.29-34.30.2550.3015.70.2670.315
Division7-10-3.411-64.50.2610.3245.50.2750.329
MILWAUKEE - Team Hitting and Fielding Statistics
Team BattingTeam BattingTeam Fielding
 RunsAVGOBPGABHEBHR/ABRBIBBSOSBLOBGIDPERRDPOSB
All Games4.50.2640.320341161307107420.04146942612822934243016
Road Games3.80.2350.2971344610537120.0345391111090111088
Righty Starters4.90.2570.3162274619267280.0410364164231461715219
MILWAUKEE - Bullpen Pitching Statistics
 ERAWHIPIPRERHHRBBSOW-LSVBSVPct.
All Games3.721.266109514510115371095-78657.1%
Road Games3.181.23534141227215341-24266.7%

CINCINNATI - Current Season Performance
 Team RecordsTeamOpponent
 W-LUnitsO-URunsAvgOBPRunsAvgOBP
All Games21-16+1.222-144.70.2490.3294.00.2430.298
Home Games15-6+6.113-85.50.2670.3453.40.2210.279
vs Right-handed Starters14-10+1.114-104.70.2440.3253.90.2510.311
Past 7 Games5-2+2.76-15.90.2740.3665.10.2370.315
Grass Games21-16+1.222-144.70.2490.3294.00.2430.298
Day Games11-7+2.613-45.30.2630.3474.90.2540.314
Division9-8-0.69-84.50.2440.3374.50.2650.321
CINCINNATI - Team Hitting and Fielding Statistics
Team BattingTeam BattingTeam Fielding
 RunsAVGOBPGABHEBHR/ABRBIBBSOSBLOBGIDPERRDPOSB
All Games4.70.2490.329371264315103350.031651512971328334173114
Home Games5.50.2670.3452174119867260.041068818281721610197
Righty Starters4.70.2440.3252479619463240.0310796192101722161511
CINCINNATI - Bullpen Pitching Statistics
 ERAWHIPIPRERHHRBBSOW-LSVBSVPct.
All Games3.771.175112.350479116411089-710283.3%
Home Games2.860.98169.32522461122817-45183.3%
Starting Pitcher Season to Date Performance
WILY PERALTA recent results and season statistics
WILY PERALTA - Season Statistics in Games Started
 Starter StatisticsTeam Records
 ERAWHIPW-LGIPIP/SRERHHRBBSOW-LUnitsO-U
All Starts5.541.5383-27395.6272446414204-3+0.66-1
Road Starts3.551.1841-0212.76.365120371-1+0.12-0
Last 3 Starts6.061.5312-1316.35.41211221372-1+13-0
WILY PERALTA - Recent Starts
DateOpponentScoreLine TotalResultDecIPRERHHRBBSOOpp Starter
5/7/2013TEXAS6-3+1058.5Win,OverW6325102GRIMM(R)
5/2/2013ST LOUIS5-6-1108.5Loss,OverL4.36611023WESTBROOK(R)
4/27/2013at LA DODGERS6-4+1107.5Win,OverW6336012MAGILL(R)

BRONSON ARROYO recent results and season statistics
BRONSON ARROYO - Season Statistics in Games Started
 Starter StatisticsTeam Records
 ERAWHIPW-LGIPIP/SRERHHRBBSOW-LUnitsO-U
All Starts4.301.1742-47466.623224767253-4-0.93-4
Home Starts3.671.1482-14276.711112724213-1+2.12-2
Last 3 Starts5.501.5000-33186.01211234490-3-32-1
BRONSON ARROYO - Recent Starts
DateOpponentScoreLine TotalResultDecIPRERHHRBBSOOpp Starter
5/6/2013ATLANTA4-7+1007.5Loss,OverL5448127MAHOLM(L)
4/30/2013at ST LOUIS1-2+1307.5Loss,UnderL7226110GARCIA(L)
4/25/2013at WASHINGTON1-8+1257.5Loss,OverL6659212GONZALEZ(L)
Head-to-Head Series History
Listed below is a summary of the games results in recent Head-to-Head matchups.
Games over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 19-14 (+4.6 Units) against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
14 of 29 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-2.1 Units, Under=-0.8 Units)
Games this season
CINCINNATI is 2-0 (+2.0 Units) against MILWAUKEE this season
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.1 Units, Under=-0.3 Units)

All games at CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 14-6 (+7.7 Units) against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
9 of 16 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.3 Units)
Games played at CINCINNATI this season.
CINCINNATI is 2-0 (+2.0 Units) against MILWAUKEE this season
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.1 Units, Under=-0.3 Units)

 Team StatsStarting Pitcher Stats
DateTeamsScoreLineTotalResultHHRSBLOBERRStarterW/LIPERHBB
5/11/2013MILWAUKEE7+180 Over112181BURGOS(R)L310113
 CINCINNATI13-1908 unWin141181LATOS(R)W6693
5/10/2013MILWAUKEE3+140 Under82080GALLARDO(R)L4355
 CINCINNATI4-1507.5 evWin812130CINGRANI(L) 4252
Pitcher Versus Team Past History
WILY PERALTA vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
PERALTA is 0-0 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 0.563.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.1 units)
WILY PERALTA recent starts vs. CINCINNATI
DateOpponentScoreLine TotalResultDecIPRERHHRBBSOOpp Starter
9/27/2012at CINCINNATI1-2+1558Loss,Under 5.3002016LATOS(R)

BRONSON ARROYO vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
ARROYO is 13-9 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 3.89 and a WHIP of 1.229.
His team's record is 16-10 (+5.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 11-11. (-1.0 units)
BRONSON ARROYO recent starts vs. MILWAUKEE
DateOpponentScoreLine TotalResultDecIPRERHHRBBSOOpp Starter
9/26/2012MILWAUKEE1-8-1308.5Loss,OverL6448111MARCUM(R)
8/6/2012at MILWAUKEE3-6+1308Loss,OverL5.35510305GALLARDO(R)
7/21/2012MILWAUKEE6-2-1058WinW6225026GALLARDO(R)
Team Line Action - Where the money is going!
Oddsmakers move a line in part because of one-sided public betting action on a side or total. They also move the line in reaction to wise guys selections. Either way, this section attempts to uncover whether the wise guys and public have a read on a given team. It summarizes both line and total movements. As a general rule, follow the line or total movement when percentages exceed 57% and go against it when they are below 43%.
As indicated by the movement of the line, the betting public is favoring MILWAUKEE in this game.
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in MILWAUKEE games 0% of the time since 1997. (0-979, 57.3 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in MILWAUKEE games 55.7% of the time over the last 3 seasons. (170-135, +16.8 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in CINCINNATI games 49.9% of the time since 1997. (1079-1085, -106.3 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in CINCINNATI games 47.7% of the time over the last 3 seasons. (146-160, -28.2 units)
Edge=CINCINNATI
 
The betting public is favoring nothing on the total in this game.
The betting public is correct when moving the total in MILWAUKEE games 50.4% of the time since 1997. (789-776, -90.7 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in MILWAUKEE games 50.3% of the time over the last 3 seasons. (99-98, -11.6 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in CINCINNATI games 52.4% of the time since 1997. (838-762, -28.8 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in CINCINNATI games 53.6% of the time over the last 3 seasons. (111-96, +3.7 units)
No Edge.
Key Player Injuries
MILWAUKEE
[P] 04/09/2013 - Chris Narveson 15-day DL (4/7) ( Finger )
[1B] 03/31/2013 - Corey Hart 60-day DL (3/22) ( Knee )
[P] 03/31/2013 - Mark Rogers 15-day DL (3/25) ( Shoulder )
[1B] 03/31/2013 - Mat Gamel 60-day DL (3/20) ( Knee )
[3B] 03/31/2013 - Taylor Green 15-day DL (3/22) ( Hip )
[P] 05/11/2013 - Tom Gorzelanny 15-day DL (5/8) ( Shoulder )
[3B] 05/12/2013 - Aramis Ramirez is not expected to be in the starting lineup Sunday vs. Cincinnati Reds ( Rest )
[CF] 05/12/2013 - Carlos Gomez is not expected to be in the starting lineup Sunday vs. Cincinnati Reds ( Rest )
[C] 05/12/2013 - Jonathan Lucroy is not expected to be in the starting lineup Sunday vs. Cincinnati Reds ( Rest )
CINCINNATI
[LF] 04/03/2013 - Ryan Ludwick 60-day DL (4/2) ( Shoulder )
[P] 04/14/2013 - Johnny Cueto 15-day DL (4/14) ( Side )
[LF] 04/30/2013 - Chris Heisey 15-day DL (4/28) ( Hamstring )
[P] 04/26/2013 - Manny Parra 15-day DL (4/24) ( Undisclosed )
[P] 04/02/2013 - Nick Masset 60-day DL (3/22) ( Shoulder )
© Sports Handicapping Information All Rights Reserved.

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