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Matchup Reports

Thursday at 1:10 PM
SAN FRANCISCO (39-45) AT CINCINNATI (49-36) 
 Starting Pitchers
TeamsLineW-LOv/Un/PRF/RAStartersRECERAWHIP
905: SAN FRANCISCO
906: CINCINNATI
7.5
-130
39-45
49-36
43-39-2
42-41-2
4.0 / 4.4
4.3 / 3.7
(R) M CAIN
(R) M LEAKE
5-4
7-3
4.29
2.52
1.07
1.13
Current Weather Conditions 
Conditions: Mostly Cloudy   Temperature: 54.0 °
Humidity: 47   Wind: South at 3.5 MPH (3 KT)
 
Power Rating Line
The power rating system is based on recent game results. The section should be used to compare the relative strength of the two teams involved. A power line is calculated using both teams ratings and home field advantage. Where the power line differs significantly from the current line, the team with the edge is indicated.
 Power Line
TeamPitcherEstimateEdge
SAN FRANCISCOCAIN +128 
CINCINNATILEAKE-128 
Team Trends and Angles
All team trends listed below apply to the current game.
SAN FRANCISCO team trends
 Win/Loss recordOver/Under
 Current YearLast 3 YearsSince 1997  CurrentLast 3   Since 1997
DescriptionW-LUnitsW-LUnitsW-LUnitsO-UO-UO-U
after 3 or more consecutive losses6-5+0.721-14+5.2150-123+29.74-616-17133-123
when playing against a team with a winning record23-21+197-89+7.8653-644+37.326-1798-82636-603
when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season0-3-340-41-0.2333-322+32.21-242-37320-309
in all games39-45-11.7231-195+9.41466-1268+103.343-39210-2001316-1288
as a road underdog of +100 to +1255-8-2.532-33+1.8175-203-7.38-539-24180-181
in road games15-30-15.2107-109-0.1668-702+24.524-21119-91689-621
in July games0-3-327-26-1.4219-205+71-229-23204-203
when playing on Thursday4-3-0.125-21+0.7162-143+6.45-222-23157-136
in day games18-16-0.880-76-6.8522-488-16.313-2073-77491-476
in games played on a grass field39-43-9.5231-193+11.61403-1208+99.841-39208-2001244-1240
against right-handed starters26-31-10152-144-16.91073-929+61.733-24154-131984-925
after a loss17-26-11.5101-91-0.4667-602+36.320-2291-94616-589

CINCINNATI team trends
 Win/Loss recordOver/Under
 Current YearLast 3 YearsSince 1997  CurrentLast 3   Since 1997
DescriptionW-LUnitsW-LUnitsW-LUnitsO-UO-UO-U
in all games49-36+3.7228-187+5.51320-1370-21.342-41189-2001259-1283
as a home favorite of -125 to -1509-3+4.948-37-3.3181-159-367-541-40164-157
in home games29-14+7.6122-87+2.5684-663-79.421-21100-92661-611
in July games3-0+333-22+6.7207-219-11.11-224-27203-199
when playing on Thursday3-4-2.418-21-8.2153-147+10.45-123-12143-141
in day games19-16-1.885-68+3.9459-483-10.818-1575-67441-440
in games played on a grass field49-36+3.7226-186+3.71089-1156-11.642-41189-1981039-1078
against right-handed starters32-24-0.2159-134-3.2948-990-1430-25133-141914-912
after a win27-21-1.2116-112-21.3642-678-35.527-20100-109598-643
after 3 or more consecutive wins6-7-4.633-27-3.6156-165-13.49-425-30141-162
when playing against a team with a losing record30-12+12.6130-87+13690-606+0.422-2098-105608-611
when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season3-0+367-41+13386-308+32.91-243-53318-325
Current Season Results And Upcoming Games
Here are the most recent results and upcoming schedules for the two teams involved. Lines, total, game scores, results versus the spread, straight up and against the total are all displayed.
SAN FRANCISCO - Schedule
 Team StatsOpp Stats
DateTeam StarterOpponentOpp StarterScoreW/LLineTot.O/UHLOBEHLOBE
6/20/2013GAUDIN(R)MIAMIKOEHLER(R)1-2L-1707.5 unU441540
6/21/2013LINCECUM(R)MIAMINOLASCO(R)3-6L-1407 unO1191970
6/22/2013ZITO(L)MIAMITURNER(R)2-1W-1457.5 evU10801091
6/23/2013CAIN(R)MIAMIEOVALDI(R)2-7L-1957 unO8511040
6/24/2013BUMGARNER(L)@ LA DODGERSRYU(L)1-3L-1056.5 unU8101650
6/25/2013KICKHAM(L)@ LA DODGERSFIFE(R)5-6L1157.5 ovO10621150
6/26/2013LINCECUM(R)@ LA DODGERSKERSHAW(L)2-4L1806.5 ovU5421271
6/28/2013ZITO(L)@ COLORADOCHACIN(R)1-4L13010.5 ovU47113120
6/29/2013CAIN(R)@ COLORADODE LA ROSA(L)1-2L-1109.5 unU762450
6/30/2013BUMGARNER(L)@ COLORADOPOMERANZ(L)5-2W-1259.5 unU12110781
7/1/2013KICKHAM(L)@ CINCINNATIARROYO(R)1-8L1458.5 evO2201140
7/2/2013LINCECUM(R)@ CINCINNATIBAILEY(R)0-3L1658.5 unU011780
7/3/2013ZITO(L)@ CINCINNATICINGRANI(L)2-3L1658.5 ovU512010110
7/4/2013CAIN(R)@ CINCINNATILEAKE(R) 
7/5/2013BUMGARNER(L)LA DODGERSRYU(L) 
7/6/2013GAUDIN(R)LA DODGERSFIFE(R) 
7/7/2013LINCECUM(R)LA DODGERSKERSHAW(L) 
7/8/2013ZITO(L)NY METSHARVEY(R) 
7/9/2013CAIN(R)NY METSGEE(R) 
7/10/2013BUMGARNER(L)NY METSWHEELER(R) 
7/11/2013 @ SAN DIEGO  

CINCINNATI - Schedule
 Team StatsOpp Stats
DateTeam StarterOpponentOpp StarterScoreW/LLineTot.O/UHLOBEHLOBE
6/20/2013BAILEY(R)PITTSBURGHCUMPTON(R)3-5L-2008 evP8511072
6/21/2013CUETO(R)@ ARIZONAMILEY(L)5-11L-1158 unO9911571
6/22/2013LEAKE(R)@ ARIZONACORBIN(L)3-4L1108 unU460651
6/23/2013LATOS(R)@ ARIZONADELGADO(R)4-2W-1408.5 evU861891
6/25/2013ARROYO(R)@ OAKLANDMILONE(L)3-7L1407.5 evO10110740
6/26/2013BAILEY(R)@ OAKLANDGRIFFIN(R)0-5L1107.5 ovU240851
6/28/2013CUETO(R)@ TEXASPEREZ(L)0-4L1059.5 unU870780
6/29/2013LEAKE(R)@ TEXASTEPESCH(R)6-4W-1059.5 ovO1193561
6/30/2013LATOS(R)@ TEXASDARVISH(R)2-3L1358 evU681890
7/1/2013ARROYO(R)SAN FRANCISCOKICKHAM(L)8-1W-1558.5 evO1140220
7/2/2013BAILEY(R)SAN FRANCISCOLINCECUM(R)3-0W-1758.5 unU780011
7/3/2013CINGRANI(L)SAN FRANCISCOZITO(L)3-2W-1758.5 ovU101105120
7/4/2013LEAKE(R)SAN FRANCISCOCAIN(R) 
7/5/2013LATOS(R)SEATTLEHARANG(R) 
7/6/2013ARROYO(R)SEATTLEBONDERMAN(R) 
7/7/2013BAILEY(R)SEATTLESAUNDERS(L) 
7/8/2013CINGRANI(L)@ MILWAUKEELOHSE(R) 
7/9/2013LEAKE(R)@ MILWAUKEEHAND(R) 
7/10/2013LATOS(R)@ MILWAUKEEHELLWEG(R) 
7/11/2013 @ ATLANTA  
Team Statistics
Peformance statistics for each team in various situations are listed below. Categories where a team has performed poorly are denoted in red. Categories where a team has performed well are denoted in green.
SAN FRANCISCO - Current Season Performance
 Team RecordsTeamOpponent
 W-LUnitsO-URunsAvgOBPRunsAvgOBP
All Games39-45-11.643-394.00.2640.3174.40.2530.316
Road Games15-30-15.224-213.90.2530.3035.00.2720.331
vs Right-handed Starters26-31-1033-243.80.2560.3124.80.2600.324
Past 7 Games1-6-5.11-61.70.1610.2383.70.2810.333
Grass Games39-43-9.541-394.00.2630.3174.20.2490.312
Day Games18-16-0.813-203.70.2630.3243.70.2350.298
SAN FRANCISCO - Team Hitting and Fielding Statistics
Team BattingTeam BattingTeam Fielding
 RunsAVGOBPGABHEBHR/ABRBIBBSOSBLOBGIDPERRDPOSB
All Games4.00.2640.317842873758231580.023162245473858780596960
Road Games3.90.2530.303451549392115300.021621123201830445363434
Righty Starters3.80.2560.312571921491147400.022051583713339849354647
SAN FRANCISCO - Bullpen Pitching Statistics
 ERAWHIPIPRERHHRBBSOW-LSVBSVPct.
All Games3.091.291253.39287233199423214-1420969%
Road Games3.381.339130.7514912213531224-811568.8%

CINCINNATI - Current Season Performance
 Team RecordsTeamOpponent
 W-LUnitsO-URunsAvgOBPRunsAvgOBP
All Games49-36+3.742-414.30.2490.3203.70.2350.291
Home Games29-14+7.621-214.70.2580.3263.50.2290.285
vs Right-handed Starters32-24-0.230-254.50.2480.3183.80.2430.297
Past 7 Games4-3+12-53.10.2400.3012.70.1610.248
Grass Games49-36+3.742-414.30.2490.3203.70.2350.291
Day Games19-16-1.718-154.60.2470.3274.10.2400.296
CINCINNATI - Team Hitting and Fielding Statistics
Team BattingTeam BattingTeam Fielding
 RunsAVGOBPGABHEBHR/ABRBIBBSOSBLOBGIDPERRDPOSB
All Games4.30.2490.320852906724243880.033533046732664378396037
Home Games4.70.2580.326431462377132490.031901483481532232163215
Righty Starters4.50.2480.318561903471156570.032431974482040951263729
CINCINNATI - Bullpen Pitching Statistics
 ERAWHIPIPRERHHRBBSOW-LSVBSVPct.
All Games3.711.263242.31071002012610526216-16241070.6%
Home Games3.711.1831315954104175116911-812475%
Starting Pitcher Season to Date Performance
MATT CAIN recent results and season statistics
MATT CAIN - Season Statistics in Games Started
 Starter StatisticsTeam Records
 ERAWHIPW-LGIPIP/SRERHHRBBSOW-LUnitsO-U
All Starts4.291.0735-4171096.453528716301018-9-3.211-5
Road Starts4.271.0852-29596.62828491115513-6-3.65-4
Last 3 Starts2.570.7620-13217.0661531231-2-22-1
MATT CAIN - Recent Starts
DateOpponentScoreLine TotalResultDecIPRERHHRBBSOOpp Starter
6/29/2013at COLORADO1-2-1109.5Loss,Under 8113015DE LA ROSA(L)
6/23/2013MIAMI2-7-1957Loss,OverL6336108EOVALDI(R)
6/18/2013SAN DIEGO5-4-1456.5Win,Over 72262010CASHNER(R)

MIKE LEAKE recent results and season statistics
MIKE LEAKE - Season Statistics in Games Started
 Starter StatisticsTeam Records
 ERAWHIPW-LGIPIP/SRERHHRBBSOW-LUnitsO-U
All Starts2.521.1297-316103.76.53429968216710-6+3.59-7
Home Starts2.911.1012-2746.36.616154269354-3+0.45-2
Last 3 Starts1.640.7271-03227.374131382-1+11-2
MIKE LEAKE - Recent Starts
DateOpponentScoreLine TotalResultDecIPRERHHRBBSOOpp Starter
6/29/2013at TEXAS6-4-1059.5Win,Over 7413014TEPESCH(R)
6/22/2013at ARIZONA3-4+1108Loss,Under 8224111CORBIN(L)
6/17/2013PITTSBURGH4-1-1208Win,UnderW7116013LIRIANO(L)
Head-to-Head Series History
Listed below is a summary of the games results in recent Head-to-Head matchups.
Games over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 14-8 (+6.1 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
10 of 21 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-1.5 Units, Under=-0.2 Units)
Games this season
CINCINNATI is 3-0 (+3.0 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.9 Units)

All games at CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 8-4 (+2.8 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
7 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.9 Units)
Games played at CINCINNATI this season.
CINCINNATI is 3-0 (+3.0 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.9 Units)

 Team StatsStarting Pitcher Stats
DateTeamsScoreLineTotalResultHHRSBLOBERRStarterW/LIPERHBB
7/3/2013SAN FRANCISCO2+165 Under510120ZITO(L) 4171
 CINCINNATI3-1758.5 ovWin1011110CINGRANI(L) 5.7244
7/2/2013SAN FRANCISCO0+165 Under00011LINCECUM(R)L5.3362
 CINCINNATI3-1758.5 unWin71180BAILEY(R)W9001
7/1/2013SAN FRANCISCO1+145 Over21020KICKHAM(L)L2.7790
 CINCINNATI8-1558.5 evWin111040ARROYO(R)W6121
Pitcher Versus Team Past History
MATT CAIN vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
CAIN is 5-6 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 3.74 and a WHIP of 1.323.
His team's record is 5-7 (-4.6 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-6. (-1.1 units)
MATT CAIN recent starts vs. CINCINNATI
DateOpponentScoreLine TotalResultDecIPRERHHRBBSOOpp Starter
10/11/2012at CINCINNATI6-4+1157Win,OverW5.7336125LATOS(R)
10/6/2012CINCINNATI2-5-1256.5Loss,OverL5335214CUETO(R)
6/29/2012CINCINNATI1-5-1606.5Loss,UnderL6.75511217LEAKE(R)

MIKE LEAKE vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
LEAKE is 3-1 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 3.38 and a WHIP of 1.438.
His team's record is 4-1 (+3.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-1. (+3.0 units)
MIKE LEAKE recent starts vs. SAN FRANCISCO
DateOpponentScoreLine TotalResultDecIPRERHHRBBSOOpp Starter
10/10/2012SAN FRANCISCO3-8-1458Loss,OverL4.3556221ZITO(L)
6/29/2012at SAN FRANCISCO5-1+1506.5Win,UnderW9119114CAIN(R)
7/30/2011SAN FRANCISCO7-2-1158Win,OverW6.3218107BUMGARNER(L)
Team Line Action - Where the money is going!
Oddsmakers move a line in part because of one-sided public betting action on a side or total. They also move the line in reaction to wise guys selections. Either way, this section attempts to uncover whether the wise guys and public have a read on a given team. It summarizes both line and total movements. As a general rule, follow the line or total movement when percentages exceed 57% and go against it when they are below 43%.
As indicated by the movement of the line, the betting public is favoring SAN FRANCISCO in this game.
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in SAN FRANCISCO games 0% of the time since 1997. (0-1073, -24.4 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in SAN FRANCISCO games 49% of the time over the last 3 seasons. (176-183, -26.7 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in CINCINNATI games 49.8% of the time since 1997. (1099-1107, -113.0 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in CINCINNATI games 47.7% of the time over the last 3 seasons. (166-182, -34.9 units)
Edge=CINCINNATI
 
The betting public is favoring the UNDER in this game.
The betting public is correct when moving the total in SAN FRANCISCO games 51.5% of the time since 1997. (830-782, -66.6 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in SAN FRANCISCO games 50.7% of the time over the last 3 seasons. (114-111, -9.3 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in CINCINNATI games 52.3% of the time since 1997. (860-783, -30.1 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in CINCINNATI games 53.2% of the time over the last 3 seasons. (133-117, +2.5 units)
No Edge.
Key Player Injuries
SAN FRANCISCO
[CF] 06/07/2013 - Angel Pagan 15-day DL (5/28) ( Hamstring )
[P] 06/25/2013 - Chad Gaudin 15-day DL (6/23) ( Elbow )
[P] 05/21/2013 - Ryan Vogelsong 60-day DL (5/20) ( Hand )
[P] 05/21/2013 - Santiago Casilla 15-day DL (5/21) ( Knee )
[C] 07/04/2013 - Buster Posey is not expected to be in the starting lineup Thursday vs. Cincinnati Reds ( Rest )
[2B] 07/04/2013 - Marco Scutaro is not expected to be in the starting lineup Thursday vs. Cincinnati Reds ( Back )
CINCINNATI
[P] 06/15/2013 - Jonathan Broxton 15-day DL (6/13) ( Elbow )
[P] 04/02/2013 - Nick Masset 60-day DL (3/22) ( Shoulder )
[LF] 04/03/2013 - Ryan Ludwick 60-day DL (4/2) ( Shoulder )
[P] 05/24/2013 - Sean Marshall 15-day DL (5/21) ( Shoulder )
[P] 06/28/2013 - Johnny Cueto 15-day DL (6/29) ( Side )
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