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Matchup Reports

Tuesday at 5:35 PM
SAN FRANCISCO (94-70) AT CINCINNATI (99-65) 
 Starting Pitchers
TeamsLineW-LOv/Un/PRF/RAStartersRECERAWHIP
921: SAN FRANCISCO
922: CINCINNATI
7.5
-141
94-70
99-65
88-70-6
62-89-13
4.4 / 4.0
4.2 / 3.6
(R) R VOGELSONG
(R) H BAILEY
14-9
13-10
3.37
3.68
1.23
1.24
Current Weather Conditions 
Conditions: Mostly Cloudy   Temperature: 54.0 °
Humidity: 47   Wind: South at 3.5 MPH (3 KT)
 
Power Rating Line
The power rating system is based on recent game results. The section should be used to compare the relative strength of the two teams involved. A power line is calculated using both teams ratings and home field advantage. Where the power line differs significantly from the current line, the team with the edge is indicated.
 Power Line
TeamPitcherEstimateEdge
SAN FRANCISCOVOGELSONG +105 
CINCINNATIBAILEY-105 
Team Trends and Angles
All team trends listed below apply to the current game.
SAN FRANCISCO team trends
 Win/Loss recordOver/Under
 Current YearLast 3 YearsSince 1997  CurrentLast 3   Since 1997
DescriptionW-LUnitsW-LUnitsW-LUnitsO-UO-UO-U
in all games94-70+16.5284-222+32.61416-1220+104.788-70239-2461265-1244
as a road underdog of +125 to +1508-6+5.220-29-1.6135-164+19.28-626-22152-132
in road games46-35+13.7135-118+21.8647-670+33.850-29134-111661-596
in October games1-4-3.112-10+336-32+3.62-39-1234-33
when playing on Tuesday16-8+9.146-30+12.4222-177+25.413-1136-38204-174
when playing with a day off11-6+3.632-25+3142-142-13.69-623-31141-131
in day games34-31-0.891-85-5.6501-471-18.333-2882-86476-454
in games played on a grass field94-70+16.5283-220+33.71353-1162+99.188-70238-2441195-1196
against right-handed starters54-51-5.5190-165-0.41036-895+61.456-45170-169943-896
in playoff games0-2-2.711-6+6.823-22+1.62-08-823-21
after getting shut out4-2+1.222-14+674-50+18.54-220-1665-55
after a loss43-27+14.6126-93+23.1647-575+45.135-31105-107594-565
after 3 or more consecutive losses4-3+0.920-16+3.4143-118+27.73-318-17129-116
when playing against a team with a winning record31-33-1.5119-113+6.2619-620+26.134-28109-116602-581
when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season16-18-2.166-59+8.4322-316+2519-1458-64311-302

CINCINNATI team trends
 Win/Loss recordOver/Under
 Current YearLast 3 YearsSince 1997  CurrentLast 3   Since 1997
DescriptionW-LUnitsW-LUnitsW-LUnitsO-UO-UO-U
in all games99-65+20271-222+18.31271-1331-20.962-89222-2331215-1241
as a home favorite of -125 to -15019-12+2.648-41-8.8172-153-36.812-1742-41155-151
in home games50-31+6.8143-103+7.5655-646-82.933-40116-108638-589
in October games3-2+1.25-6-1.210-22-13.72-34-710-22
when playing on Tuesday16-8+7.842-30+8.8187-200-4.87-1733-36167-201
when playing with a day off8-7-1.824-28-10.2132-152-15.65-922-28131-138
in day games38-18+16.296-75+10440-464-4.922-2973-80421-424
in games played on a grass field99-65+20269-221+16.51040-1117-11.262-89222-231995-1036
against right-handed starters66-47+7.2185-159+4916-964-11.141-61156-159883-886
in playoff games2-0+2.52-3-0.52-3-0.52-03-23-2
after shutting out their opponent7-5+0.513-13-2.956-63-6.85-58-1544-70
after a win55-43+1140-131-15.5615-656-32.933-54111-135571-622
when playing against a team with a winning record39-29+9.295-107-10.1542-668-6.924-3991-93551-592
when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season15-8+6.440-51-10.6242-334-24.87-1341-41262-275
Current Season Results And Upcoming Games
Here are the most recent results and upcoming schedules for the two teams involved. Lines, total, game scores, results versus the spread, straight up and against the total are all displayed.
SAN FRANCISCO - Schedule
 Team StatsOpp Stats
DateTeam StarterOpponentOpp StarterScoreW/LLineTot.O/UHLOBEHLOBE
9/25/2012LINCECUM(R)ARIZONACOLLMENTER(R)2-7L-1407 ovO440640
9/26/2012CAIN(R)ARIZONAMILEY(L)6-0W-1556.5 ovU12123792
9/27/2012ZITO(L)ARIZONACORBIN(L)7-3W-1057.5 evO1240770
9/28/2012VOGELSONG(R)@ SAN DIEGOWERNER(L)3-1W-1157 evU10102771
9/29/2012BUMGARNER(L)@ SAN DIEGOSTULTS(L)3-7L-1257 unO761950
9/30/2012LINCECUM(R)@ SAN DIEGOVOLQUEZ(R)7-5W1107.5 evO1281640
10/1/2012CAIN(R)@ LA DODGERSHARANG(R)2-3L-1107 unU650980
10/2/2012ZITO(L)@ LA DODGERSCAPUANO(L)4-3W1707.5 ovU10401071
10/3/2012VOGELSONG(R)@ LA DODGERSKERSHAW(L)1-5L1806.5 unU351840
10/6/2012CAIN(R)CINCINNATICUETO(R)2-5L-1256.5 unO7110961
10/7/2012BUMGARNER(L)CINCINNATIARROYO(R)0-9L-1457 evO2501350
10/9/2012VOGELSONG(R)@ CINCINNATIBAILEY(R) 

CINCINNATI - Schedule
 Team StatsOpp Stats
DateTeam StarterOpponentOpp StarterScoreW/LLineTot.O/UHLOBEHLOBE
9/25/2012CUETO(R)MILWAUKEEFIERS(R)4-2W-1457.5 ovU960510
9/26/2012ARROYO(R)MILWAUKEEMARCUM(R)1-8L-1308.5 evO6901390
9/27/2012LATOS(R)MILWAUKEEPERALTA(R)2-1W-1658 evU650550
9/28/2012BAILEY(R)@ PITTSBURGHBURNETT(R)1-0W-1157 unU741010
9/29/2012LEAKE(R)@ PITTSBURGHMCPHERSON(R)1-2L-1258.5 evU7928120
9/30/2012CUETO(R)@ PITTSBURGHRODRIGUEZ(L)4-3W-1507.5 unU1073770
10/1/2012ARROYO(R)@ ST LOUISGARCIA(L)2-4L1307.5 unU650961
10/2/2012LATOS(R)@ ST LOUISCARPENTER(R)3-1W1157 ovU870660
10/3/2012BAILEY(R)@ ST LOUISMILLER(R)0-1L-1407.5 unU350991
10/6/2012CUETO(R)@ SAN FRANCISCOCAIN(R)5-2W1156.5 unO9617110
10/7/2012ARROYO(R)@ SAN FRANCISCOBUMGARNER(L)9-0W1357 evO1350250
10/9/2012BAILEY(R)SAN FRANCISCOVOGELSONG(R) 
Team Statistics
Peformance statistics for each team in various situations are listed below. Categories where a team has performed poorly are denoted in red. Categories where a team has performed well are denoted in green.
SAN FRANCISCO - Current Season Performance
 Team RecordsTeamOpponent
 W-LUnitsO-URunsAvgOBPRunsAvgOBP
All Games94-70+16.688-704.40.2680.3274.00.2480.310
Road Games46-35+13.750-295.10.2710.3264.70.2620.322
vs Right-handed Starters54-51-5.656-454.20.2650.3304.10.2460.306
Past 7 Games2-5-3.24-32.70.2100.2925.30.2720.319
Grass Games94-70+16.688-704.40.2680.3274.00.2480.310
Day Games34-31-0.833-284.10.2520.3104.10.2490.313
Playoff games0-2-2.72-01.00.1430.2507.00.2970.333
SAN FRANCISCO - Team Hitting and Fielding Statistics
Team BattingTeam BattingTeam Fielding
 RunsAVGOBPGABHEBHR/ABRBIBBSOSBLOBGIDPERRDPOSB
All Games4.40.2680.327164562115044501040.0267649211071181187133115136129
Road Games5.10.2710.326812893784246720.023892375866457765676757
Righty Starters4.20.2650.3301053571945273540.024173517288678672717783
SAN FRANCISCO - Bullpen Pitching Statistics
 ERAWHIPIPRERHHRBBSOW-LSVBSVPct.
All Games3.611.342461.42131854563816339123-19531380.3%
Road Games3.971.455235.7123104254218920312-1129780.6%

CINCINNATI - Current Season Performance
 Team RecordsTeamOpponent
 W-LUnitsO-URunsAvgOBPRunsAvgOBP
All Games99-65+2062-894.20.2520.3123.60.2460.301
Home Games50-31+6.833-404.30.2560.3223.80.2500.301
vs Right-handed Starters66-47+7.241-614.00.2500.3113.60.2450.299
Past 7 Games4-3+12-53.40.2360.2791.90.2160.293
Grass Games99-65+2062-894.20.2520.3123.60.2460.301
Day Games38-18+16.222-294.50.2570.3173.60.2470.295
Playoff games2-0+2.52-07.00.2970.3331.00.1430.250
CINCINNATI - Team Hitting and Fielding Statistics
Team BattingTeam BattingTeam Fielding
 RunsAVGOBPGABHEBHR/ABRBIBBSOSBLOBGIDPERRDPOSB
All Games4.20.2520.312164555113995061750.0364948512828711461279011378
Home Games4.30.2560.3228126486792531030.043322576384255357376546
Righty Starters4.00.2500.31111337809453401110.034223358726778585607653
CINCINNATI - Bullpen Pitching Statistics
 ERAWHIPIPRERHHRBBSOW-LSVBSVPct.
All Games2.631.2274451461303573418948332-22561776.7%
Home Games2.281.064244.37062170209026720-824777.4%
Starting Pitcher Season to Date Performance
RYAN VOGELSONG recent results and season statistics
RYAN VOGELSONG - Season Statistics in Games Started
 Starter StatisticsTeam Records
 ERAWHIPW-LGIPIP/SRERHHRBBSOW-LUnitsO-U
All Starts3.371.22914-931189.76.17671171176215819-12+714-16
Road Starts3.871.2597-51695.36.0444191829849-7+2.610-6
Last 3 Starts0.530.8822-03175.7311213152-1+10-3
RYAN VOGELSONG - Recent Starts
DateOpponentScoreLine TotalResultDecIPRERHHRBBSOOpp Starter
10/3/2012at LA DODGERS1-5+1806.5Loss,Under 5102017KERSHAW(L)
9/28/2012at SAN DIEGO3-1-1157Win,UnderW6105014WERNER(L)
9/21/2012SAN DIEGO5-1-1507.5Win,UnderW6115114KELLY(R)

HOMER BAILEY recent results and season statistics
HOMER BAILEY - Season Statistics in Games Started
 Starter StatisticsTeam Records
 ERAWHIPW-LGIPIP/SRERHHRBBSOW-LUnitsO-U
All Starts3.681.24013-10332086.39785206265216818-15-0.217-13
Home Starts5.161.5004-81799.45.863571212128796-11-8.28-6
Last 3 Starts2.290.6101-1319.76.655923221-2-1.41-2
HOMER BAILEY - Recent Starts
DateOpponentScoreLine TotalResultDecIPRERHHRBBSOOpp Starter
10/3/2012at ST LOUIS0-1-1407.5Loss,Under 4004006MILLER(R)
9/28/2012at PITTSBURGH1-0-1157Win,UnderW90000110BURNETT(R)
9/23/2012LA DODGERS3-5+1357.5Loss,OverL6.7555226KERSHAW(L)
Head-to-Head Series History
Listed below is a summary of the games results in recent Head-to-Head matchups.
Games over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 14-9 (+5.9 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
13 of 22 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+3.6 Units)
Games this season
CINCINNATI is 6-3 (+3.9 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO this season
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.2 Units, Under=-0.6 Units)

All games at CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 7-3 (+3.5 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+3.9 Units)
Games played at CINCINNATI this season.
CINCINNATI is 2-1 (+0.9 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

 Team StatsStarting Pitcher Stats
DateTeamsScoreLineTotalResultHHRSBLOBERRStarterW/LIPERHBB
10/7/2012CINCINNATI9+135  131050ARROYO(R)W7011
 SAN FRANCISCO0-1457 evOver20050BUMGARNER(L)L4.3471
10/6/2012CINCINNATI5+115  92061CUETO(R) 0.3000
 SAN FRANCISCO2-1256.5 unOver710110CAIN(R)L5351
Pitcher Versus Team Past History
RYAN VOGELSONG vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
VOGELSONG is 1-3 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 5.84 and a WHIP of 1.703.
His team's record is 4-4 (-0.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-2. (+1.9 units)
RYAN VOGELSONG recent starts vs. CINCINNATI
DateOpponentScoreLine TotalResultDecIPRERHHRBBSOOpp Starter
7/1/2012CINCINNATI4-3-1507Win 7223115ARROYO(R)
4/26/2012at CINCINNATI6-5+1058.5Win,Over 6447125BAILEY(R)
7/29/2011at CINCINNATI3-4-1159Loss,Under 6337021WILLIS(L)

HOMER BAILEY vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
BAILEY is 1-0 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 5.59 and a WHIP of 1.517.
His team's record is 3-2 (+3.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-1. (+3.0 units)
HOMER BAILEY recent starts vs. SAN FRANCISCO
DateOpponentScoreLine TotalResultDecIPRERHHRBBSOOpp Starter
4/26/2012SAN FRANCISCO5-6-1158.5Loss,Over 6.3327026VOGELSONG(R)
8/25/2010at SAN FRANCISCO12-11+1057.5Win,Over 5.3559024BUMGARNER(L)
8/18/2009SAN FRANCISCO5-8+2007.5Loss,Over 5.7557134LINCECUM(R)
Team Line Action - Where the money is going!
Oddsmakers move a line in part because of one-sided public betting action on a side or total. They also move the line in reaction to wise guys selections. Either way, this section attempts to uncover whether the wise guys and public have a read on a given team. It summarizes both line and total movements. As a general rule, follow the line or total movement when percentages exceed 57% and go against it when they are below 43%.
As indicated by the movement of the line, the betting public is favoring CINCINNATI in this game.
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in SAN FRANCISCO games 0% of the time since 1997. (0-1038, -27.7 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in SAN FRANCISCO games 50.8% of the time over the last 3 seasons. (217-210, -16.2 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in CINCINNATI games 49.9% of the time since 1997. (1063-1068, -100.6 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in CINCINNATI games 48.1% of the time over the last 3 seasons. (199-215, -31.5 units)
Edge=SAN FRANCISCO
 
The betting public is favoring the UNDER in this game.
The betting public is correct when moving the total in SAN FRANCISCO games 51.4% of the time since 1997. (784-740, -64.6 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in SAN FRANCISCO games 47.9% of the time over the last 3 seasons. (101-110, -20.5 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in CINCINNATI games 52.4% of the time since 1997. (819-743, -25.5 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in CINCINNATI games 51.8% of the time over the last 3 seasons. (133-124, -4.2 units)
No Edge.
Key Player Injuries
SAN FRANCISCO
[1B] 04/08/2012 - Angel Villalona on restricted list ( Disciplinary )
[2B] 03/31/2012 - Freddy Sanchez 60-day DL (3/26), out for season ( Shoulder )
[P] 04/15/2012 - Brian Wilson 60-day DL (4/13), out for season ( Elbow )
[P] 06/29/2012 - Eric Surkamp 60-day DL (3/26) ( Elbow )
[LF] 08/15/2012 - Melky Cabrera suspended 50 games; out for season ( Suspension )
CINCINNATI
[P] 04/27/2012 - Ryan Madson 60-day DL (3/24), out for season ( Elbow )
[P] 06/15/2012 - Nick Masset 60-day DL (3/26) ( Shoulder )
[P] 08/01/2012 - Bill Bray 15-day DL (7/31) ( Back )
[P] 10/06/2012 - Johnny Cueto injured last start, "?" for next start ( Back )
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