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Matchup Reports

Wednesday at 4:05 PM
SAN FRANCISCO (95-70) AT CINCINNATI (99-66) 
 Starting Pitchers
TeamsLineW-LOv/Un/PRF/RAStartersRECERAWHIP
927: SAN FRANCISCO
928: CINCINNATI
8.0
-147
95-70
99-66
88-71-6
62-90-13
4.4 / 4.0
4.1 / 3.6
(L) B ZITO
(R) M LEAKE
15-8
8-9
4.15
4.58
1.39
1.35
Current Weather Conditions 
Conditions: Mostly Cloudy   Temperature: 54.0 °
Humidity: 47   Wind: South at 3.5 MPH (3 KT)
 
Power Rating Line
The power rating system is based on recent game results. The section should be used to compare the relative strength of the two teams involved. A power line is calculated using both teams ratings and home field advantage. Where the power line differs significantly from the current line, the team with the edge is indicated.
 Power Line
TeamPitcherEstimateEdge
SAN FRANCISCOZITO +136 
CINCINNATILEAKE-136 
Team Trends and Angles
All team trends listed below apply to the current game.
SAN FRANCISCO team trends
 Win/Loss recordOver/Under
 Current YearLast 3 YearsSince 1997  CurrentLast 3   Since 1997
DescriptionW-LUnitsW-LUnitsW-LUnitsO-UO-UO-U
when playing on Wednesday11-14-5.141-37-2.5218-187+15.515-1041-35193-191
in day games35-31+0.592-85-4.3502-471-1733-2982-87476-455
in games played on a grass field95-70+17.8284-220+351354-1162+100.488-71238-2451195-1197
against right-handed starters55-51-4.2191-165+0.91037-895+62.756-46170-170943-897
in playoff games1-2-1.412-6+8.124-22+2.92-18-923-22
after a win51-42+3157-127+10.5767-640+6352-39133-138669-675
when playing against a team with a winning record32-33-0.2120-113+7.5620-620+27.434-29109-117602-582
when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season17-18-0.867-59+9.7323-316+26.319-1558-65311-303
in all games95-70+17.8285-222+33.81417-1220+10688-71239-2471265-1245
when the total is 8 to 8.511-10+157-47+9.2479-441+2.416-554-49459-428
as a road underdog of +125 to +1509-6+6.421-29-0.3136-164+20.58-726-23152-133
in road games47-35+15136-118+23.1648-670+35.150-30134-112661-597
on the road when the total is 8 to 8.59-9+039-39+1.4201-230-13.114-442-36225-194
in October games2-4-1.813-10+4.337-32+4.92-49-1334-34

CINCINNATI team trends
 Win/Loss recordOver/Under
 Current YearLast 3 YearsSince 1997  CurrentLast 3   Since 1997
DescriptionW-LUnitsW-LUnitsW-LUnitsO-UO-UO-U
at home when the total is 8 to 8.521-20-6.862-58-15.8194-208-38.117-1861-50212-176
in October games3-3-0.15-7-2.610-23-15.12-44-810-23
when playing on Wednesday14-11+0.342-36+2182-218-28.97-1532-43183-194
in day games38-19+14.896-76+8.6440-465-6.322-3073-81421-425
in games played on a grass field99-66+18.6269-222+15.11040-1118-12.662-90222-232995-1037
against left-handed starters33-18+12.786-63+14.3355-367-9.821-2866-74332-355
in playoff games2-1+1.12-4-1.92-4-1.92-13-33-3
after a loss43-22+18129-90+32.8652-671+13.529-34109-97641-614
when playing against a team with a winning record39-30+7.895-108-11.5542-669-8.324-4091-94551-593
when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season15-9+540-52-12242-335-26.27-1441-42262-276
in all games99-66+18.6271-223+16.91271-1332-22.362-90222-2341215-1242
when the total is 8 to 8.537-28+0109-101-13.5377-413-20.824-33102-96375-385
as a home favorite of -125 to -15019-13+1.248-42-10.2172-154-38.212-1842-42155-152
in home games50-32+5.4143-104+6.1655-647-84.333-41116-109638-590
Current Season Results And Upcoming Games
Here are the most recent results and upcoming schedules for the two teams involved. Lines, total, game scores, results versus the spread, straight up and against the total are all displayed.
SAN FRANCISCO - Schedule
 Team StatsOpp Stats
DateTeam StarterOpponentOpp StarterScoreW/LLineTot.O/UHLOBEHLOBE
9/26/2012CAIN(R)ARIZONAMILEY(L)6-0W-1556.5 ovU12123792
9/27/2012ZITO(L)ARIZONACORBIN(L)7-3W-1057.5 evO1240770
9/28/2012VOGELSONG(R)@ SAN DIEGOWERNER(L)3-1W-1157 evU10102771
9/29/2012BUMGARNER(L)@ SAN DIEGOSTULTS(L)3-7L-1257 unO761950
9/30/2012LINCECUM(R)@ SAN DIEGOVOLQUEZ(R)7-5W1107.5 evO1281640
10/1/2012CAIN(R)@ LA DODGERSHARANG(R)2-3L-1107 unU650980
10/2/2012ZITO(L)@ LA DODGERSCAPUANO(L)4-3W1707.5 ovU10401071
10/3/2012VOGELSONG(R)@ LA DODGERSKERSHAW(L)1-5L1806.5 unU351840
10/6/2012CAIN(R)CINCINNATICUETO(R)2-5L-1256.5 unO7110961
10/7/2012BUMGARNER(L)CINCINNATIARROYO(R)0-9L-1457 evO2501350
10/9/2012VOGELSONG(R)@ CINCINNATIBAILEY(R)2-1W1307.5 unU340471
10/10/2012ZITO(L)@ CINCINNATILEAKE(R) 

CINCINNATI - Schedule
 Team StatsOpp Stats
DateTeam StarterOpponentOpp StarterScoreW/LLineTot.O/UHLOBEHLOBE
9/26/2012ARROYO(R)MILWAUKEEMARCUM(R)1-8L-1308.5 evO6901390
9/27/2012LATOS(R)MILWAUKEEPERALTA(R)2-1W-1658 evU650550
9/28/2012BAILEY(R)@ PITTSBURGHBURNETT(R)1-0W-1157 unU741010
9/29/2012LEAKE(R)@ PITTSBURGHMCPHERSON(R)1-2L-1258.5 evU7928120
9/30/2012CUETO(R)@ PITTSBURGHRODRIGUEZ(L)4-3W-1507.5 unU1073770
10/1/2012ARROYO(R)@ ST LOUISGARCIA(L)2-4L1307.5 unU650961
10/2/2012LATOS(R)@ ST LOUISCARPENTER(R)3-1W1157 ovU870660
10/3/2012BAILEY(R)@ ST LOUISMILLER(R)0-1L-1407.5 unU350991
10/6/2012CUETO(R)@ SAN FRANCISCOCAIN(R)5-2W1156.5 unO9617110
10/7/2012ARROYO(R)@ SAN FRANCISCOBUMGARNER(L)9-0W1357 evO1350250
10/9/2012BAILEY(R)SAN FRANCISCOVOGELSONG(R)1-2L-1407.5 unU471340
10/10/2012LEAKE(R)SAN FRANCISCOZITO(L) 
Team Statistics
Peformance statistics for each team in various situations are listed below. Categories where a team has performed poorly are denoted in red. Categories where a team has performed well are denoted in green.
SAN FRANCISCO - Current Season Performance
 Team RecordsTeamOpponent
 W-LUnitsO-URunsAvgOBPRunsAvgOBP
All Games95-70+17.888-714.40.2670.3254.00.2480.309
Road Games47-35+1550-305.00.2690.3244.60.2600.321
vs Right-handed Starters55-51-4.256-464.20.2630.3294.10.2450.305
Past 7 Games3-4-0.73-42.60.1930.2714.40.2490.296
Grass Games95-70+17.888-714.40.2670.3254.00.2480.309
Day Games35-31+0.533-294.10.2500.3084.10.2470.312
Playoff games1-2-1.42-11.30.1260.2105.00.2430.296
SAN FRANCISCO - Team Hitting and Fielding Statistics
Team BattingTeam BattingTeam Fielding
 RunsAVGOBPGABHEBHR/ABRBIBBSOSBLOBGIDPERRDPOSB
All Games4.40.2670.325165565315074501040.0267749311231181191133115136130
Road Games5.00.2690.324822925787246720.023902386026458165676758
Righty Starters4.20.2630.3291063603948273540.014183527448679072717784
SAN FRANCISCO - Bullpen Pitching Statistics
 ERAWHIPIPRERHHRBBSOW-LSVBSVPct.
All Games3.571.332466.42131854573816439324-19531380.3%
Road Games3.891.433240.7123104255219020513-1129780.6%

CINCINNATI - Current Season Performance
 Team RecordsTeamOpponent
 W-LUnitsO-URunsAvgOBPRunsAvgOBP
All Games99-66+18.662-904.10.2510.3123.60.2450.300
Home Games50-32+5.433-414.30.2550.3213.80.2480.299
vs Left-handed Starters33-18+12.821-284.60.2560.3143.60.2470.305
Past 7 Games4-3+0.82-53.40.2220.2651.90.1940.257
Grass Games99-66+18.662-904.10.2510.3123.60.2450.300
Day Games38-19+14.822-304.40.2540.3163.60.2450.292
Playoff games2-1+1.12-15.00.2430.2961.30.1260.210
CINCINNATI - Team Hitting and Fielding Statistics
Team BattingTeam BattingTeam Fielding
 RunsAVGOBPGABHEBHR/ABRBIBBSOSBLOBGIDPERRDPOSB
All Games4.10.2510.312165558414035061750.0365048912898811531279111378
Home Games4.30.2550.3218226816832531030.043332616454356057386546
Lefty Starters4.60.2560.314511771454166640.042271504102036142303725
CINCINNATI - Bullpen Pitching Statistics
 ERAWHIPIPRERHHRBBSOW-LSVBSVPct.
All Games2.611.2234481471303593418948932-23561776.7%
Home Games2.261.059247.37162172209027320-924777.4%
Starting Pitcher Season to Date Performance
BARRY ZITO recent results and season statistics
BARRY ZITO - Season Statistics in Games Started
 Starter StatisticsTeam Records
 ERAWHIPW-LGIPIP/SRERHHRBBSOW-LUnitsO-U
All Starts4.151.38915-832184.35.89185186207011421-11+13.717-15
Road Starts4.341.3987-315835.544408812285210-5+98-7
Last 3 Starts3.571.5283-0317.75.9772205153-0+3.72-1
BARRY ZITO - Recent Starts
DateOpponentScoreLine TotalResultDecIPRERHHRBBSOOpp Starter
10/2/2012at LA DODGERS4-3+1707.5Win,UnderW6226016CAPUANO(L)
9/27/2012ARIZONA7-3-1057.5Win,OverW6336033CORBIN(L)
9/20/2012COLORADO9-2-1608Win,OverW5.72210016DE LA ROSA(L)

MIKE LEAKE recent results and season statistics
MIKE LEAKE - Season Statistics in Games Started
 Starter StatisticsTeam Records
 ERAWHIPW-LGIPIP/SRERHHRBBSOW-LUnitsO-U
All Starts4.581.3528-9301796.09791201264111616-14-0.913-15
Home Starts5.541.4264-51687.75.557541101715589-7+0.18-6
Last 3 Starts3.321.3161-03196.377193672-1+0.80-3
MIKE LEAKE - Recent Starts
DateOpponentScoreLine TotalResultDecIPRERHHRBBSOOpp Starter
9/29/2012at PITTSBURGH1-2-1258.5Loss,Under 6004033MCPHERSON(R)
9/19/2012at CHICAGO CUBS6-5-14514Win,Under 6446121RUSIN(L)
9/11/2012PITTSBURGH5-3-1508.5Win,UnderW7339213CORREIA(R)
Head-to-Head Series History
Listed below is a summary of the games results in recent Head-to-Head matchups.
Games over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 14-10 (+4.5 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
13 of 23 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+2.6 Units)
Games this season
CINCINNATI is 6-4 (+2.5 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO this season
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.5 Units)

All games at CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 7-4 (+2.1 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+2.9 Units)
Games played at CINCINNATI this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-2 (+0.3 Units) against CINCINNATI this season
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.0 Units)

 Team StatsStarting Pitcher Stats
DateTeamsScoreLineTotalResultHHRSBLOBERRStarterW/LIPERHBB
10/9/2012SAN FRANCISCO2+130  30040VOGELSONG(R) 5133
 CINCINNATI1-1407.5 unUnder40171BAILEY(R) 7111
10/7/2012CINCINNATI9+135  131050ARROYO(R)W7011
 SAN FRANCISCO0-1457 evOver20050BUMGARNER(L)L4.3471
10/6/2012CINCINNATI5+115  92061CUETO(R) 0.3000
 SAN FRANCISCO2-1256.5 unOver710110CAIN(R)L5351
Pitcher Versus Team Past History
BARRY ZITO vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
ZITO is 3-4 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 6.21 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 5-6 (-0.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 7-4. (+2.9 units)
BARRY ZITO recent starts vs. CINCINNATI
DateOpponentScoreLine TotalResultDecIPRERHHRBBSOOpp Starter
6/30/2012CINCINNATI1-2+1157.5Loss,UnderL6115063LATOS(R)
4/25/2012at CINCINNATI2-4+1158.5Loss,Under 6115124ARROYO(R)
7/31/2011at CINCINNATI0-9+1458Loss,OverL5558124CUETO(R)

MIKE LEAKE vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
LEAKE is 3-0 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 2.28 and a WHIP of 1.374.
His team's record is 4-0 (+4.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-1. (+1.9 units)
MIKE LEAKE recent starts vs. SAN FRANCISCO
DateOpponentScoreLine TotalResultDecIPRERHHRBBSOOpp Starter
6/29/2012at SAN FRANCISCO5-1+1506.5Win,UnderW9119114CAIN(R)
7/30/2011SAN FRANCISCO7-2-1158Win,OverW6.3218107BUMGARNER(L)
6/11/2011at SAN FRANCISCO10-2+1406.5Win,OverW8004018LINCECUM(R)
Team Line Action - Where the money is going!
Oddsmakers move a line in part because of one-sided public betting action on a side or total. They also move the line in reaction to wise guys selections. Either way, this section attempts to uncover whether the wise guys and public have a read on a given team. It summarizes both line and total movements. As a general rule, follow the line or total movement when percentages exceed 57% and go against it when they are below 43%.
As indicated by the movement of the line, the betting public is favoring CINCINNATI in this game.
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in SAN FRANCISCO games 0% of the time since 1997. (0-1039, -29.1 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in SAN FRANCISCO games 50.7% of the time over the last 3 seasons. (217-211, -17.6 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in CINCINNATI games 49.9% of the time since 1997. (1063-1069, -102.0 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in CINCINNATI games 48% of the time over the last 3 seasons. (199-216, -32.9 units)
Edge=SAN FRANCISCO
 
The betting public is favoring nothing on the total in this game.
The betting public is correct when moving the total in SAN FRANCISCO games 51.5% of the time since 1997. (785-740, -63.6 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in SAN FRANCISCO games 48.1% of the time over the last 3 seasons. (102-110, -19.5 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in CINCINNATI games 52.5% of the time since 1997. (820-743, -24.5 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in CINCINNATI games 51.9% of the time over the last 3 seasons. (134-124, -3.2 units)
No Edge.
Key Player Injuries
SAN FRANCISCO
[1B] 04/08/2012 - Angel Villalona on restricted list ( Disciplinary )
[2B] 03/31/2012 - Freddy Sanchez 60-day DL (3/26), out for season ( Shoulder )
[P] 04/15/2012 - Brian Wilson 60-day DL (4/13), out for season ( Elbow )
[P] 06/29/2012 - Eric Surkamp 60-day DL (3/26) ( Elbow )
[LF] 08/15/2012 - Melky Cabrera suspended 50 games; out for season ( Suspension )
[RF] 10/10/2012 - Hunter Pence probable Wednesday vs. Cincinnati Reds ( Calf )
CINCINNATI
[P] 04/27/2012 - Ryan Madson 60-day DL (3/24), out for season ( Elbow )
[P] 06/15/2012 - Nick Masset 60-day DL (3/26) ( Shoulder )
[P] 08/01/2012 - Bill Bray 15-day DL (7/31) ( Back )
[P] 10/09/2012 - Johnny Cueto expected to miss NLCS ( Back )
[2B] 10/10/2012 - Brandon Phillips probable Wednesday vs. San Francisco Giants ( Calf )
© Sports Handicapping Information All Rights Reserved.

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