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2022 Atlanta Falcons Betting Preview: Picks And Predictions

Nick Galaida Wed 8/31 7:51am PT
Our NFL experts are backing one side of the Atlanta Falcons win total set by Vegas oddsmakers.
Image Credit: Imagn

NFL betting expert Nick Galaida takes a look at the 2022 Atlanta Falcons and offers a free betting pick on their season win total.

The Atlanta Falcons managed to win seven games in 2021, but only the New York Giants, Houston Texans, New York Jets, and Jacksonville Jaguars had a worse end-of-season point differential. Following their fourth consecutive losing season, Atlanta decided to trade Matt Ryan, who led this franchise to a Super Bowl appearance in 2016. In his absence, the Falcons have tasked Marcus Mariota to bridge the organization to their next franchise signal caller – who could be this summer’s third-round draft pick, Desmond Ridder.

Let’s take a look at the Atlanta roster unit-by-unit to see if there is any potential for this group to surprise bettors this fall.

Atlanta Falcons 2022 Team Preview

Quarterback

Depth Chart: Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder, Feleipe Franks

Marcus Mariota was the primary starting quarterback for the Tennessee Titans from 2015 to 2018, during which he posted a 69-to-43 touchdown-to-interception ratio. In his last full season under center, he graded near league average across the board, with slightly worse than 50th percentile rankings on throws of all depths of target. He was neither spectacular nor hard to watch against the blitz or on third down. Simply, he has been a paragon of mediocrity since entering the league. He figures to be a serviceable bridge for this organization until Desmond Ridder is deemed ready to take over the reins.

Ridder made tremendous progress during his collegiate career at Cincinnati, going from a player that looked destined to never play an NFL snap, to being selected by the Falcons in the third round this past summer. He has been consistently praised for his work ethic and his ability to make quick decisions with the football. It would be surprising if Ridder was a bonafide star from the moment he steps on the field, but he will likely progress enough to become the starter for Atlanta at some point during his rookie campaign.

Running Backs

Depth Chart: Cordarrelle Patterson, Damien Williams, Tyler Allgeier, Qadree Ollison

Cordarrelle Patterson was a nice success story in 2021, reinventing himself as a running back, following a failed career as wide receiver. In 16 games for the Falcons, he led the team with 618 rushing yards, but ranked only 34th in yards-per-carry among qualified running backs. He still did most of his damage as a pass-catcher, totaling 548 receiving yards and 52 receptions out of the backfield. Expect Patterson to fill a similar type of role for this unit in 2022, and to produce serviceable, albeit unspectacular numbers once again.

Damien Williams also joins this group for the upcoming season, after garnering 164 rushing yards on 40 attempts last year for the Chicago Bears. Williams has never eclipsed 500 rushing yards or 250 receiving yards in a single season. It would be unwise to expect him to contribute as more than a change-of-pace option in this offense.

The Falcons spent a fifth-round draft pick this past summer on Tyler Allgeier out of BYU, but failed to otherwise invest at this position in the offseason. Allgeier has plus-vision and is good in pass-protection, but fumble issues and a lack of explosiveness in the open field could keep him in a limited role, at least to begin the season. 

Wide Receivers

Depth Chart: Drake London, Bryan Edwards, Olamide Zaccheaus, Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts was the lone bright spot for the Atlanta passing attack a year ago, eclipsing 1,000 receiving yards in his first professional campaign. Pitts led the team in all major pass-catching categories, except in touchdowns. Entering his second season, the former 4th overall draft selection could be poised for an even larger role in the offense. His main weakness is his inability to block effectively in the run game.

However, the coaching staff will certainly put-up with that issue, considering his prowess as a receiver. Drake London was selected with the eighth overall pick in this past summer’s draft, as the Falcons look to continue investing in their wide receiver room. London does not possess 99th percentile speed, but he was nonetheless outstanding at USC, and figures to excel at the NFL level due to his physical playing style.

If he can limit the drops, he could be in for a strong rookie year. Bryan Edwards and Olamide Zaccheaus are both underwhelming options in this group, but should see plenty of snaps in 2022, due to the absence of Calvin Ridley, who is serving a suspension for betting on NFL games last fall.

Offensive Line

Depth Chart: Jake Matthews, Elijah Wilkinson, Matt Hennessy, Chris Lindstrom, Kaleb McGary

Jake Matthews and Chris Lindstrom are both quality players at their respective positions, but Elijah Wilkinson, Matt Hennessy, and Kaleb McGary create major vulnerabilities for this group. Even Matthews is only reliable as a pass-blocker, with tremendous deficiencies in the running game.

Lindstrom has established himself as one of the better pass-blockers in the league, but remains worse than league average as a run-blocker. Former first round draft pick Kaleb McGary has made marginal improvements since he floundered as a rookie in 2019, but at this point, it is doubtful that he ever grows into a productive role that justifies where he was selected. Wilkinson and Dalman are low-upside players, who will have to acclimate themselves to playing every down in 2022. This is one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL.

Base 3-4 Defense

Defensive Line

Depth Chart: Ta’Quon Graham, Grady Jarrett, Arnold Ebiketie

As bad as the offensive line is for Atlanta, the defensive line has an opportunity to be even worse. In 2021, the Falcons were the only team in the league to have a unit grade below 50.0 on the defensive line, using Pro Football Focus’ grading system. Ta’Quon Graham was one of the worst players in the league at his position last fall in 309 snaps on the defensive line.

A fifth-round pick from the 2021 draft class, there is little reason to be optimistic about a major step forward in his sophomore campaign. Grady Jarrett looked like one of the better defensive lineman in football in 2018 and 2019, but has regressed sharply in recent years as the talent around him has weakened. In 2021, he had only one sack and three tackles-for-loss as a member of a unit that finished 32nd in the NFL in sacks per pass attempt.

Arnold Ebiketie projects as an NFL-ready edge rusher, but the second round pick from this past summer’s draft is far from an elite prospect. He is unlikely to be a liability for the Falcons, but he is also unlikely to be a game-changer for this defense.

Linebackers

Depth Chart: Adetokunbo Ogundeji, Deion Jones, Rashaan Evans, Lorenzo Carter

On top of having one of the worst defensive lines in the league, Atlanta could also have the worst linebacker corps. Adetokunbo Ogundeji was selected in the fifth-round of the 2021 draft, but his play as a rookie suggests that it may have been a mistake for him to be drafted at all. He finished his first year with the worst pass rush grade of any edge rusher in the league, per Pro Football Focus, and there is little reason to expect much better in 2022. Deion Jones was selected in the second round in 2016 out of LSU, and quickly became a household name for fans who appreciate great defense.

However, his career has taken a sharp turn for the worse, with steady decreases in production each of the last two years. Only a handful of every down linebackers were worse than Jones was last fall.  Rashaan Evans carried plenty of hype, coming out of Alabama as a first round draft pick in 2018. However, he has yet to make a positive impact in any area of the game in his first four NFL seasons. Lorenzo Carter is capable in coverage, but nowhere near talented enough to move the needle on the overall sentiment of this unit. Expect Atlanta’s linebackers to be among the worst in the NFL in all facets of the game again this season.

Secondary

Depth Chart: A.J. Terrell, Jaylinn Hawks, Richie Grant, Casey Hayward Jr. 

A.J. Terrell and Casey Hayward Jr. are nothing short of an elite cornerback duo. The unfortunate part for Falcons fans is that Richie Grant and Jaylinn Hawkins form, arguably, the worst safety duo in the NFL. In 2021, Atlanta ranked 23rd in pass yards allowed per play. The lack of talent in this unit beyond Terrell and Hayward Jr. is likely to result in another bottom-half finish in this metric in 2022.

2022 Atlanta Falcons Outlook And Betting Pick

The Falcons have the lowest market win total of any team in the NFC, and for good reason. Atlanta is going to be dominated at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball on a weekly basis in 2022, which is going to make it extremely difficult to be competitive.

Marcus Mariota is far from the worst quarterback to ever start an NFL contest, but he lacks the skills to overcome a porous offensive line and a paucity of talent in the receiver room. Atlanta’s defense was one of the worst in the league last fall, but could be even worse this year as a result of a weaker offense that could struggle to stay on the field.

If the Falcons do not beat the Seattle Seahawks in Week 3, it is realistic that this roster does not get its first win until Week 11 when they host the Chicago Bears. There are few winnable games for Atlanta on their 2022 schedule, and even fewer reasons to justify any optimism that this team outperforms their low expectations. Take the under here.