NBA Consensus Picks
When it comes to betting on the NBA, winning money long-term at online sportsbooks is no easy feat. The markets are liquid and the lines are efficient, so you want to use every data point available to find an edge when placing your NBA bets. One thing you can do is use this NBA consensus picks page to keep tabs on who the public is betting every night. It’s ultimately up to you to decide how to use that information, but we have a few tips for putting it to use.
What Are NBA Consensus Picks
NBA consensus picks tell us who the public is betting on. Look at the numbers above. If 80% is on the Over, that means 80% of bets are on the over. If 72% is on the Lakers, then 72% of bets are on the Lakers. By looking at these consensus percentages, we can often determine which side of a game bookmakers are rooting for. So do you want to follow or fade the public?
To Follow or To Fade The Public?
Some people like to take contrarian betting angles by fading the public. The thinking behind this strategy is that we can identify and take advantage of public bias by betting against it because when the majority of bets are on one side oddsmakers react by moving the line accordingly, e.g., if the Nets open -5 and receive 88% of bets, the line will likely move to Nets -6 or -7. Contrarian bettors believe there’s value on the underdog once the line moves.
Generally speaking, the public is biased toward favorites, home teams, and overs. There are also popular teams across the country like the Lakers that often receive public support. The other idea is that by fading the public, we may be fading the recency bias of recreational bettors. A lot of sports bettors overreact to last week’s results. If there are enough bettors doing this, it may distort the line and again create value on the other side.
While this is a popular betting strategy, there’s no guarantee it will be profitable over the long run. Markets adapt and become more efficient. If winning money was as easy as fading the public, more and more people would do it until market makers adjusted their processes and it no longer worked. There’s also reverse line movement (or “RLM”). Reverse line movement occurs when the public betting percentage or consensus picks lean heavily on one side yet the line moves in the opposite direction, e.g., the line opens Bulls -3, Bulls receive 85% of bets, but the line closes Bulls -1.
It’s best to approach each game on a case-by-case basis. While some situations may be suited to fade the public, others may not. Circumstances will vary so you need to stay on top of the news, weather, and injury reports and analyze each situation with its public betting trends and line movement. If it’s a prime-time game or a game with a popular team, it’s more likely to be +EV (positive expected value) to fade the public.
If you’re new to sports betting, you won’t gain a feel for this overnight, but you can follow our experts and read their analysis behind each pick by signing up for SAO Premium. And of course, you always want to find the best lines by using our NBA odds comparison tool.