MLB Consensus Picks
Betting on baseball throughout the MLB season is a grind. You can use our MLB consensus picks to simplify your process. This page will show you aggregated public betting percentages for each game’s moneyline, run line and spread, and Over/Under. You can then use this information to devise betting strategies and angles while shopping MLB lines at online sportsbooks, starting on Opening Day and through the final game of the World Series.
What Are MLB Consensus Picks
MLB consensus picks are synonymous with public betting. Both terms refer to how recreational bettors are wagering on a specific game. If it says 85% on the New York Yankees ML, then 85% of moneyline bets are on the Yankees. If 70% of bets are on Over 7.5 runs, then 70% of the public is betting on the Over.
How Oddsmakers React To MLB Consensus Picks
Line movement at sportsbooks often correlates with consensus picks. For example, if the Yankees open as -180 moneyline favorites in the morning and receive 80% of bets throughout the day, the moneyline will likely move closer to -200 (or beyond) by the first pitch.
How Use Public Betting Percentages
A popular MLB betting strategy is to fade the public. It’s no surprise that many sports bettors lean heavily toward betting on favorites, especially in baseball where the moneyline is the most popular way to bet on a game.
It’s not easy to muster up enough courage to fade ace pitchers like Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, and Gerrit Cole. It’s even more difficult in good matchups, and a steep price doesn’t always scare the public away. But because so many bettors prefer to bet on heavy favorites, there’s often value on the underdogs.
If you aren’t the type to strictly fade the public, you can still use our MLB consensus picks to help in your betting endeavors. This data, made available every morning during the MLB season, shows you how the public is likely to bet throughout the day. Of course the sample size of bets is smaller earlier in the day than later, but if you see 90% of bettors are on one team at 10 am, chances are the public will continue to side with that team. If you like the same side, it’s probably better to lock in your bet as early as possible, before oddsmakers move the line. If you like the opposite side, then you’re likely better off exercising patience and waiting for a better odds later in the afternoon. Think of yourself as a Wall Street trader, trying to “buy low” for the best possible payout and ROI.
Consensus Picks Are Not Expert Picks
Remember, MLB consensus picks are not to be confused with our daily expert picks, the latter of which are exclusive to SAO Premium members. By signing up for expert picks, you gain access to detailed wagers and information from our MLB handicappers and betting experts. They’ll take you behind the scenes every time they place a bet, as they show you what they’re betting, where they’re betting and why they’re betting.