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There are 30 MLB teams, which means that several days of the week feature 15 different games. Teams usually get either Monday or Thursday off, but everyone plays over the weekend and at least two days during the week. Each game, even the most low-profile weeknight game, offers upwards of 100 different player prop bets. That’s over 1500 different available wagers every day, including hit, home run, strikeout props, and more!
The opportunity to find some value in such a vast array of bets seems limitless, but where do you even begin? You begin right here, with SAO’s indispensable MLB Player Prop tracker.
What are MLB Props?
Before we talk about the tracker, let’s back up a bit and explain what an MLB prop bet actually is. We will use an actual MLB game as an example. On Thursday, June 2, 2022, the Seattle Mariners were in Baltimore to face the Orioles. Here is a list of the different player prop bet types for that game offered on DraftKings Sportsbook:
- Home Runs
- Total Bases
- Runs Scored
- Stolen Bases
- To Record A Win
- Hits Allowed
- Earned Runs
- Team Total Runs
- First Scoring Play
- Inning of First/Last Score
- First/Last Run
- Race to X Runs
- Extra Innings Yes/No
- Winning Margin
- Both Teams to Score
- Will the Orioles Bat in the Bottom of the 9th?
- Team to Win Most Innings
- Team With Highest Scoring Inning
- Odd/Even Run Total
- First Inning Odd/Even
- Correct Score
As you can see above, there are a lot of player prop bet types out there. Seattle at Baltimore on a Thursday is no one’s idea of a high-profile event, yet there were 28 different categories of player prop bets available. Many of the categories featured 18 different players, each with an Over and Under option. That’s over 150 available bets!
Why Bet on Player Prop Bets
If sportsbooks are offering hundreds of different prop bets on one low-profile weeknight baseball game, there is no way that all the bets are priced to advantage the house. Value is out there, but it needs to be uncovered. That’s where SAO comes in. Sportsbooks often put the most time and effort into pricing bets that generate the most action. NFL markets in particular are dialed in so closely that by the time the game starts most bets are basically a coin flip. There is little to no value to be found. Not so with MLB player prop bets.
MLB Prop Comparison Tool
Sportsbooks use computer models and algorithms to determine the prices for player prop bets. All the available statistics are fed into a spreadsheet or proprietary software and a number is spit out. For example, at the time of this writing Mariners second baseman Adam Frazier was hitting .254 and had 50 hits in 50 games. The best odds of him getting one or more hits in the day’s game were -264 Yes and +195 No.
SAO has developed its own proprietary tool that 1) lists the different sportsbook prices for all available MLB player prop bets to find the best value, and 2) predicts the probable outcome of five different player prop bet types. You can search by player name or category.
Using the above example, SAO’s prop model, which is exclusive to SAO Premium subscribers, projected Frazier would get 1.1 hits in the June 2 game, which means the probability of him getting a hit is higher than him not getting a hit. Therefore, the Over is the more likely outcome. If you want to pay the heavy juice, the Over is the better pick. This model, created by our expert projections team, is applied to every player in each day’s games and is available for five different categories, including:
- Home Runs
MLB Expert Picks and Predictions
SAO has a team of experts who spend all day researching baseball statistics and scour the player prop sections of all the major sportsbooks looking for mispriced player prop bets. And boy do they find them. After the first two months of the 2022 MLB season, SAO experts were up over 30 units in prop bet picks. Every day they send SAO premium subscribers thei top player prop picks, a majority of which are winners, which not every so-called “expert” can claim. There are usually also a few free picks available on the website to get a taste of what SAO Premium offers. Check out these examples from some games in early June 2022.
Which Sportsbooks Offer Player Prop Bets?
Almost every sportsbook offers player prop bets, but some definitely have more than others. The big guys like FanDuel, DraftKings, and BetMGM generally have a wide range of wagers available, but don’t sleep on the smaller guys like Hard Rock Sportsbook or Betfred, which offered a tasty 157 different player prop bets on the aforementioned June 2 Mariners-Orioles game.
The following sportsbooks are known for their player prop expertise and wide variety of wagering opportunities.