College football is the second-most popular sport to bet on in the U.S., and NCAAF consensus picks are a useful handicapping tool for college football bettors who are looking to make money at the sportsbook.
What Are College Football Consensus Picks?
By aggregating exclusive data from some of the top online sports betting sites, our college football consensus page shows you what kind of action oddsmakers are taking on each and every game. Not only do our consensus picks display the percentage of bets being placed on each team and the over/under but also the percentage of money (or “handle”) that’s behind each side. Check this out:
Here, we see that 58% of bets are on Army, leaving 42% on Navy. However, 84% of the money is on Army. Bigger, and possibly sharper, bets are on Army. By clicking on “Total” we can then see the betting percentages for the Over and Under.
Fading The Public
One way bettors try to use this information to their advantage is by fading the public. Fading the public is a popular strategy for contrarian bettors.
Generally speaking, when it comes to college football betting, the public loves betting on popular teams — Alabama, Notre Dame, Michigan, and Texas, for example. College bettors also tend to bet on the Over, especially with the proliferation of spread offenses across the country.
The truth, though, is that fading the public doesn’t always work. The market is perpetually adjusting and becoming more efficient. Sometimes the public is right, sometimes they aren’t.
It’s best to approach each game on its own. One game’s spread may be a great opportunity to fade the public, another may not. Circumstances vary so you need to stay on top of the news, weather, and injury reports and analyze each situation with its public betting trends and line movement. If it’s a prime-time game or a game with a popular team, it’s more likely to be +EV (positive expected value) to fade the public.