Searching for Super Bowl odds, have a hunch on a darkhorse NFL MVP candidate, or just want to bet on a division winner? Whatever your NFL futures bet might be, you’ve come to the right place.
What Is An NFL Futures Bet?
A futures bet is a wager that is placed on a future event. Unlike spreads and totals, it might take months to cash out rather than hours or a few days, but it’s worth the wait if your bold prediction comes to fruition.
Unsurprisingly, betting on the Super Bowl winner in advance is the most popular futures bet at online sportsbooks. Patrons can begin wagering on Super Bowl odds for the next season within hours of the Lombardi Trophy being won. Super Bowl odds are available throughout the offseason, and then the regular season, with oddsmakers adjusting prices based on money coming in, news, and game outcomes.
For example, the Buccaneers are among Super Bowl favorites and their current Super Bowl odds (as of Nov. 8) are +600. Using our odds comparison tool, you can quickly find which sportsbook has the best price for all 32 teams. In this case, if you’re betting on the Bucs, you want to sign up and place your wager at Caesars.
Another team of potential interest, especially with online sports betting in Arizona now live, is the Arizona Cardinals +1000. In this case, a $100 bet at will return $1100 — $1000 profit plus the original $100 wagered. And again, using the odds comparison tool we see that Ceasars has the best odds.
Conveniently, new users can get a risk-free bet up to $1,001 by signing up at Ceasars Sportsbook with this link!
NFL Futures Betting Examples
While Super Bowl futures are most popular, they’re only one of the many futures markets NFL bettors can dip their toes into throughout the year.
You can bet on everything from conference and division futures to individual player futures — for example, who will win awards like NFL MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, Rookie of the Year, and Coach of the Year, as well as which player will end the season with the most passing yards, touchdowns, rushing yards, receiving yards, etc.
How To Win Money Betting On Super Bowl and MVP Odds
Because NFL futures are less efficient than game lines, sportsbooks manage their risk by increasing the hold percentage when it comes to Super Bowl odds and other futures markets. Rather than the typical -110 you see alongside game spreads and totals (which comes out to roughly five percent hold) oddsmakers adjust futures prices so that their theoretical hold is often closer to 20 percent.
That may sound like a lot—and it is— but that doesn’t mean futures markets aren’t beatable with the right approach.
Shopping Futures Odds
First, the most important step is shopping odds.
This page does exactly that, pulling odds from multiple sportsbooks and updating them throughout the day, all year long. Instead of logging into each sportsbook account one by one, you can simply come here for a quick, clean view of updated Super Bowl odds, MVP pricing, and more from across the sports betting industry.
There are often discrepancies in odds from one sportsbook to the next. By finding the best price, you drastically decrease the sportsbooks’ theoretical hold. For example, if you were only betting at BetMGM a $100 bet on the Bucs would pay merely $250 in winnings, but since our odds comparisons show you where to find the best odds, you now know you can make the same bet at Caesars or PointsBet and profit $600.
Timing The Market
Secondly, timing is everything.
Betting futures at sportsbooks is a lot like buying and selling shares of companies on the stock market. Odds fluctuate throughout the season and it’s better to be early than late. Just look at the Dallas Cowboys who started the season +3500 to win the Super Bowl. They’re 6-2 through eight weeks and are only +1200.
In hindsight, there were some good read reasons to bet on the Cowboys before the season began: 1) Playing a weak division meant they had a fairly easy road to the playoffs, 2) They returned their starting quarterback, Dak Prescott, from injury, 3) Used offseason capital on defense and brought in a new defensive coordinator.
There was a lot unknown about the Cowboys, but that wasn’t necessarily a bad thing since they entered the season with lengthy odds.
The Cowboys are still unlikely to pull off the tall feat, but there is a lesson here: Try to find teams or players to bet on whose current odds are more likely to get shorter than longer.
That’s easier said than done, of course. So before placing a bet you should be able to paint a plausible narrative of the team/player exceeding expectations and ultimately completing the task at hand.
Conversely, the Kansas City Chiefs opened as favorites to win the 2022 Super Bowl. Hindsight is 20/20, but at +550, their odds were unlikely to get much shorter than they already were. Fast forward to Week 10 and the Chiefs are +1200. If you’re still interested in backing the defending AFC Championship, you can get much better odds than were available at the start of the season.
Value On Super Bowl Longshots?
Ahead of the 2019 NFL season, the San Francisco 49ers were between +4000 and +5000 to win the Super Bowl, as were the Baltimore Ravens. In 2018, Mahomes’ first year as a starter in Kansas City, the Chiefs were roughly +4000. In 2017, the Philadelphia Eagles were as long as +6000 in the offseason before making their miraculous Super Bowl run with Nick Foles at the helm. Clearly bettors can find value for teams that are farther down the betting board before each NFL season kicks off in September.
With all of that said, let’s now take a look at historic MVP, Rookie of the Year, and Coach of the Year winners as we search for some notable futures betting trends. Hopefully these tips can help guide you to some winning futures tickets.
NFL MVP Winners
|Year||Position||Player||MVP Odds (Open)||Team (Record)|
|2020||QB||Aaron Rodgers||+2500||Packers (13-3)|
|2019||QB||Lamar Jackson||+12500||Ravens (14-2)|
|2018||QB||Patrick Mahomes||+5000||Chiefs (12-4)|
|2017||QB||Tom Brady||+400||Patriots (13-3)|
|2016||QB||Matt Ryan||+7500||Falcons (11-5)|
|2015||QB||Cam Newton||+5000||Panthers (15-1)|
|2014||QB||Aaron Rodgers||+600||Packers (12-4)|
|2013||QB||Peyton Manning||+600||Broncos (13-3)|
|2012||RB||Adrian Peterson||+4000||Vikings (10-6)|
|2011||QB||Aaron Rodgers||+400||Packers (15-1)|
|2010||QB||Tom Brady||+800||Patriots (14-2)|
|2009||QB||Peyton Manning||+500||Colts (14-2)|
|2008||QB||Peyton Manning||+2000||Colts (12-4)|
|2007||QB||Tom Brady||N/A||Patriots (16-0)|
|2006||QB||LaDanian Tomlinson||N/A||Chargers (14-2)|
|2005||RB||Shaun Alexander||N/A||Seahawks (13-3)|
|2004||QB||Peyton Manning||N/A||Colts (12-4)|
|2003||QB||Peyton Manning/Steve McNair||N/A||Colts/Titans (12-4)|
|2002||QB||Rich Gannon||N/A||Raiders (11-5)|
|2001||QB||Kurt Warner||N/A||Rams (14-2)|
|2000||RB||Marshall Faulk||N/A||Rams (10-6)|
NFL MVP Betting Trends
Looking at past NFL MVP winners illuminates historic betting trends to consider while perusing MVP odds at sportsbooks:
- 54 of 57 NFL MVPs have played an offensive position
- Quarterbacks have won the award 38 times, running backs 16 times, while there have been two defensive winners, and one placekicker
- During the 2020 season, Aaron Rodgers became the eighth-consecutive QB to win MVP
- The last running back to win was Adrian Peterson in 2012
- Linebacker Lawrence Taylor was the last defensive player to win the award (’86)
- No wide receiver has ever been named MVP
- Since 2001, only one winner has played on a team with fewer than 11 wins
In short, bet on quarterbacks. Don’t waste money on receivers, running backs, or defensive players. Invest in players who play on teams that have a plausible road to success (11 or more wins). And similar to betting on the Super Bowl, there has been plenty of value on longshots in recent years.
Coach Of The Year Betting Trends
- Joe Gibbs was the last back-to-back COY winner in 1982 and 1983
- Since 2009, the award has gone to coaches whose teams win on average 5.9 games more than they did the previous season
- On that same note, the median improvement for these teams has been +7 wins
- Five of the last 10 Coach of the Year winners have been in their first year with a new team
- Eight of the last 10 Coach of the Year awards went to division winners; the other two went to coaches of wild-card teams
Avoid coaches who won the previous season as they do appear to be victims of voter fatigue. Instead, find coaches who are in their first year with a new team, which often means there’s plenty of room for improvement (roughly six wins worth), and have a reasonable shot at winning their division or at the very least making the playoffs.