Tides’ Takes: PGA Futures – British Open Picks To Bet On Now (6/30/22)

British Open Betting Picks and Hideki Matsuyama Outright Odds
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ScoresAndOdds PGA analyst Timothy Buell gives free expert advice and betting picks for The Open Championship.

The next major golf tournament is almost here! But we’re still far enough away to take a look at some PGA futures and odds to take advantage of.

Make sure to use our tools at ScoresAndOdds to find the best lines at your favorite legal sportsbook.

The Open Championship – Old Course at St. Andrews Guide

The Open Championship heads to The Old Course at St. Andrews, Scotland, for the 150th rendition of the tournament. This year marks the 30th time it’s been held at The Old Course. The last time we had an Open Championship here was in 2015, when Zach Johnson won in a three-man playoff.  

This year’s fourth-and-final major is set to tee off on July 14th, where the world’s best will contend for the Claret Jug at golf’s most iconic course. As a golf fan, this is as exciting as it gets, and should be truly phenomenal four days of golf. 

The course  will play at 7,313 yards and is a par 72. There are 112 bunkers at The Old Course, many of them have been rebuilt ahead of this tournament. Don’t ask me to name them all, but there is  one on hole number 14 that is named “Hell” and I’m thinking that you don’t want to hit your ball in that.

The Old Course is considered a links-style course. For those that don’t know what that means, links-style golf has very few trees and water hazards, but a ton of bunkers. The green sizes are gigantic, unlike the ones we see in the United States. 

Key Statistics and Metrics

When considering an outright British Open pick, one factor to think about is three-putt avoidance. It is usually along a coastline that brings unpredictable winds to the forefront. Links courses are also very open, you don’t have to be accurate off the tee, unless you are avoiding the tall, natural fescue that protects the course.

Weather is a gigantic factor at pretty much any coastline course.  We can’t predict the weather two weeks ahead of time, just understand that it will matter as we get closer. The last time The Open Championship was played at this course, the winning score was -15.  If the winds stay down, the course is scorable, however, wind is hard to predict on the coast and weather can change on a dime.  

Quick PGA Betting Tip

One quick thought before getting into the picks – the Irish and Scottish Open tournaments are very strong events leading up to this one. Lines will adjust for a lot of these golfers based on those events. Pay attention to those results. If there is a golfer you like for The Open, who plays badly in one or both of those events, his odds could drop considerably, and you could get a better number.

Of course, the reverse could happen, and they may end up winning either of those events and the number gets steamed higher. Either way, it’s important as a bettor to stay in the know when it comes to the results of the next two DP World Tour events.  

PGA Outright Picks – The Open Championship

Jon Rahm

Normally, I don’t like to go this high up on the board for a winner, but majors are a different animal. Much has been said about Rory McIlory going into this tournament, and his spectacular play as of late, but I am starting to feel like fatigue will play a factor with him.

He really struggled during the weekend at the Travelers and didn’t look mentally sharp. Scottie Scheffler is obviously playing the best golf in the world right now, but he is vastly inexperienced on a links course. Sure, he can do well here, but I am not going to bet him at 12-1. 

Rahm really sticks out to me as the best upper-tier golfer to win this event. He has experience with links golf and is in solid form. Rahm also has a major championship on his resume. 

His mental toughness was always my issue with him – he had a tendency to lose his temper and throw away rounds. But Rahm seems to have controlled himself enough to keep his head in the game, which is huge on an unpredictable course like this.

In terms of all-around skillset, he could still be the best player in the world, and if it weren’t for Scheffler’s huge run earlier this year, he would still be #1.

Hideki Matsuyama

I have seen this number as high as 33-1 at some lesser known books. As always, use the best line available for you. 

Hideki always seems to be under-valued in the betting markets and I want to take advantage of that for The Open. He is one of the best ball strikers in the world, and due to the large greens, you will need to have your irons working. What good is a green-in- regulation if you are 70 feet from the cup?

Also, if the wind does pick up, you will need to be excellent with your ball-striking metrics, which bodes well for Matsuyama. Of course, Hideki’s putter is always a bit of a wildcard and can be dreadful at times, but if he can put at neutral with the field, he should be contending on Sunday. 

Hideki plays the majors the best, and after winning The Masters, his game has really taken off. The talent has always been there, but now, the confidence is too. Hideki came out of nowhere at The Country Club on Sunday at the U.S. Open, shooting a -5 and finishing just three strokes behind the eventual winner – Matt Fitzpatrick. I love the momentum he is carrying going into this event and there is value in this number at 25-1 or better. 

Ryan Fox

Please use some common sense when betting on long shots in golf! There is a good chance they won’t win!  Having said that, I am going to make one small wager on Ryan Fox to win The Open Championship. 

Fox scored well all over Europe and flashed a massive ceiling throughout various events on the DP World Tour. Those include a third-place finish last week at the BMW International in Germany. He also finished T8 in the British Masters in May. 

Fox is currently #56 in the Official World Golf Rankings. He’s in elite form and has vast experience on links courses. As of now, there aren’t any top-10 or top-20 odds posted, but he is certainly someone I want to bet on in that market.